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Ecological Scenarios: Embracing Ecological Uncertainty for Climate Change Adaptation
In a rapidly changing environment, natural resource managers must determine how to steward ecosystems that are changing, often in unfamiliar and uncertain ways. Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Building on current methods that incorporate uncertainties in future climate to develop scenarios for climate change adaptation, our work informs how scenarios can better represent uncertainties in how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes. In this webinar, we present results from a working group process that identified principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties in scenario development. We provide examples of how qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future, drawing on preliminary results from an ongoing case study focused on the Nebraska Sandhills. We further highlight the need for accessible ecological projections and tools that can help practitioners assess and incorporate uncertainty in future ecosystem change to support climate change adaptation.
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In a rapidly changing environment, natural resource managers must determine how to steward ecosystems that are changing, often in unfamiliar and uncertain ways. Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Building on current methods that incorporate uncertainties in future climate to develop scenarios for climate change adaptation, our work informs how scenarios can better represent uncertainties in how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes. In this webinar, we present results from a working group process that identified principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties in scenario development. We provide examples of how qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future, drawing on preliminary results from an ongoing case study focused on the Nebraska Sandhills. We further highlight the need for accessible ecological projections and tools that can help practitioners assess and incorporate uncertainty in future ecosystem change to support climate change adaptation.
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CANCELLED: Shared societal benefit assessment as a path toward improving data collection and sharing in the Arctic region
Webinar CANCELLED- will update with reschedule information as soon as possible. The US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) was created to support coordinated multi-agency improvements to Arctic data collection (observing, monitoring) and sharing systems to better support societal benefit. It developed its BENEFIT methods and tool in alignment with agency (e.g. NOAA) and interagency (US Group on Earth Observations) efforts, but adapted to encompass Arctic-specific considerations like subsistence-based food security and escalating environmental threats in rural communities. This talk will describe US AON’s approach to societal benefit assessment and present the results of its application toward gaps assessment in the areas of risk management and hazard mitigation in the Alaskan Arctic. Focal areas in this work include wildland fires, coastal flooding, landslides, and aviation weather.
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Webinar CANCELLED- will update with reschedule information as soon as possible. The US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) was created to support coordinated multi-agency improvements to Arctic data collection (observing, monitoring) and sharing systems to better support societal benefit. It developed its BENEFIT methods and tool in alignment with agency (e.g. NOAA) and interagency (US Group on Earth Observations) efforts, but adapted to encompass Arctic-specific considerations like subsistence-based food security and escalating environmental threats in rural communities. This talk will describe US AON’s approach to societal benefit assessment and present the results of its application toward gaps assessment in the areas of risk management and hazard mitigation in the Alaskan Arctic. Focal areas in this work include wildland fires, coastal flooding, landslides, and aviation weather.
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