The webinar will cover two complementary studies of how forest transformations (Nagy) and restoration of areas invaded by exotic annual grasses (Maxwell) affect carbon storage across the North Central United States. In the first part of the session, Dr. Maxwell will share preliminary results from a study seeking to quantify the potential carbon benefits and soil health co-benefits of successful restorations of heavily invaded exotic annual grasslands. The NC CASC-funded study spanned 48 sites across Montana, Wyoming and Colorado from low-elevation grasslands to high elevation meadows in Rocky Mountain National Park. Focusing on soil carbon, where the majority of carbon is stored in these semi-arid rangelands, this presentation will explore how different restoration practices, climate, and time all interact to affect when, and whether carbon benefits should be expected when exotic annual grasses are eradicated from a site. In the second part of the session, Dr. Nagy will share preliminary findings from a study to quantify the changes in carbon storage due to ecological transformations associated with wildfire and invasive plants in forests across the North Central U.S. Using satellite data to track annual changes in vegetation indices, this study detects areas that have experienced transformation (e.g., forest to shrubland or grassland) and quantifies the accompanying changes in aboveground biomass. This NC CASC-funded project involves collaboration with stakeholders from agencies and organizations across the North Central region to inform the remote sensing analysis and co-produce a management menu. 

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May 8, 2025 | 11:00am

Sagebrush rangelands occupy 76 million hectares across western North America and provide a wide range of ecosystem services, notably wildlife habitat.  However, these sagebrush rangelands are being transformed by combinations of wildfire, invasive species, and drought.  Our work seeks to understand the potential impacts of climate change on these important ecosystems that have been decreasing by ~0.53 million hectares per year.  In this webinar, we will present results about future long-term changes in ecological drought, widespread declines in ecological resilience and resistance, and potential geographic shifts in sagebrush plant community structure and ecological integrity.  We will also describe our current research efforts related to climate adaptation in sagebrush.  These analyses are coproduced with natural resource managers and are designed to provide actionable information to maximize the long-term value of sagebrush ecosystem conservation and restoration investments.

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April 10, 2025 | 11:00am

The Sagebrush Conservation Design (SCD) is a tool to identify intact sagebrush areas and address the largest threats to the ecosystem. The SCD focuses on first protecting intact and functioning sagebrush ecosystems, called Core Sagebrush Areas, then works outward toward more degraded areas (i.e., “Defend the Core”). The premise behind the Defend the Core approach is simple: focus resources first on preventative actions that retain ecosystem services in Core Sagebrush Areas because they are more cost-effective and more likely to be successful. The November 2024 special issue of Rangeland Ecology and Management is dedicated to applying the SCD to improve conservation outcomes across the sagebrush biome in the face of pervasive ecosystem threats. This special issue provides new science and real-world examples of how we can implement the SCD to save a biome. The overarching themes are: 1) Business-As-Usual Won't Save the Sagebrush Sea, 2) Better Spatial Targeting Can Improve Outcomes, 3) Conservation Planning is Needed to Develop Realistic Business Plans, 4) Targeted Ecosystem Management: Monitoring Shows Managing for Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Working, 5) Maintaining Sagebrush Ecological Integrity is Ecologically Relevant, and 6) There is Only Hope if We Manage Change. The collective articles show that there is no shared plan to save the biome, yet a business plan for the biome could ensure realistic goals. The sagebrush biome still has vast expanses of open spaces with high ecological integrity at a scale that is rare in other ecological systems within the lower 48 states. If we focus on the common ground of the main drivers of ecosystem change, implementing the SCD and Defending the Core are viable strategies to help save a biome.

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March 13, 2025 | 11:00am

Robin Hextrum has been making paintings that address climate change since 2011. Throughout these years, her work has evolved in various ways, but it always returns to environmental concerns. Many of her paintings utilize a surrealist juxtaposition of incongruous elements to call attention to climate issues. For example, combining icebergs with opulent imagery from traditional Dutch paintings asks us to examine the historical legacy and environmental impacts of our ever-demanding needs for material wealth. And, her paintings of animals taking over prestigious human spaces like museums and palaces ask viewers to rethink the dominance of human centered narratives. We now live in a new geological epoch known as the “Anthropocene.” This period refers to the significant human impact on species extinction and the climate since 1950. It is difficult to comprehend this degree of harm and responsibility. Hextrum believes art provides a valuable platform for processing the existential threat of climate change that can be both healing and transformative in its call to action.

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December 12, 2024 | 11:00am

The Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis; lynx) is a snow-adapted North American boreal forest carnivore whose populations are strongly tied to its primary prey, the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus; hare).  A habitat and prey specialist, the lynx is broadly distributed across the extensive boreal spruce-fir forests from eastern Canada to Alaska, where it remains widespread and abundant throughout most of its historical range.  Although the lynx is designated a species of least concern by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, it has been listed in the contiguous U.S. as a threatened distinct population segment (DPS) since 2000.  Here, on its southern range periphery, lynx usually occur in smaller numbers and at lower densities than are typical in the northern core of its range, and the boreal forest becomes naturally patchy and suboptimal with decreasing latitude, as it transitions to temperate forest types that do not support lynx.  The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) has long recognized the potential threat that climate warming poses to the DPS; however, our ability to project and quantify potential impacts has been limited until recent advances in species distribution modeling and climate modeling. 

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November 14, 2024 | 11:00am

Invasive species are a top concern of resource managers and are already shifting their ranges as they spread after initial introduction and establishment. Species distribution models are a common tool to predict where invasive species may establish under both current and future climate conditions. While these habitat suitability models can be useful, it is also important to understand their limitations. We have developed models identifying areas suitable for invasive plants that are often driven by climate. In some cases, we have developed habitat suitability models for species and applied these models to future climate scenarios to identify areas that may become climatically suitable in the future. Climate change adds another level of uncertainty in predicting invasive species’ potential ranges. Managers are also concerned with assessing invasion risk to identify areas most at risk of invasion, and these areas can also be influenced by changing climate. Additionally, potential management actions for invasive species can also be influenced by climate. Through all these examples, I will show how models of invasive species considering current and future climate can help land managers develop climate-smart management protocols by prioritizing monitoring and early detection rapid response actions to high-risk invasives.

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May 9, 2024 | 11:00am

Recent years have seen great advances in the availability of downscaled climate data and tools to inform climate change impact or vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation planning. This presentation will discuss various tools available through https://ClimateToolbox.ORG to access downscaled future climate projections relevant for ecological applications, examine future climate uncertainty and develop quantitative information to inform scenario planning activities. We will specifically discuss the Future Climate Scenarios tool and an updated version of Future Climate Scatter tool, which are the latest additions/improvements to the toolbox motivated by the ongoing collaboration between North Central CASC and US Fish & Wildlife Service to inform Species Status Assessments. These tools and the underlying climate and hydrological projections data can collectively support a wide array of applications for developing quantitative information to support climate adaptation and scenario planning.

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April 11, 2024 | 9:00am

In this follow-up presentation to "Present and future suitable habitat for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem" by Davidson et al, we will take a closer look at the potential landscapes identified for the conservation of the prairie dog ecosystem across North America’s Central Grasslands. Our analysis incorporated ecological, political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential. These priority areas represent 17% of the historical distribution of black-tailed prairie dogs and remain strongholds under projected climate change. Our findings highlight the large conservation potential for BTPDs and associated species, especially those that depend on extensive prairie dog colony complexes and intact habitat to support their populations. The maps we generated in this analysis can be incorporated into other large-scale, multi-species conservation planning efforts being developed for the Central Grasslands of North America for local, Tribal, federal, state and private lands and wildlife managers.

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March 14, 2024 | 11:00am

Pinyon Jays are an iconic species of piñon-juniper woodlands across the Intermountain West. Since the late 1960’s, the species has experienced significant, long-term population declines and is now under review for potential listing under the Endangered Species Act. Despite their noisy and gregarious nature, Pinyon Jays are poorly understood, and the specific drivers of decline are unknown. As partners begin research on Pinyon Jay demographics and habitat use, we are also beginning to investigate how impacts of climate change on piñon-juniper woodlands could affect jay populations. Through bringing together an understanding of Pinyon Jay biology, natural woodland dynamics, effects of anthropogenic change, climate change, among others, we can begin to strive for success with both jay and piñon-juniper woodland conservation. Pinyon Jay conservation is dependent on managing a climate resilient, ecologically functional woodland ecosystem into the future.

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February 8, 2024 | 11:00am

The Adaptation Workbook is a structured process to consider the potential effects of climate change and design land management and conservation actions that can help prepare for changing conditions. The process is completely flexible to accommodate a wide variety of geographic locations, ownership types, ecosystems and land uses, management goals, and project sizes. Our webinar will detail the broader process of developing a menu of climate adaptation strategies and approaches for terrestrial wildlife management to help managers translate broad concepts into specific tactics that will respond to climate change risks and meet desired management goals. We will present a recent application of this process for managing wildlife populations and their habitat. We will further demonstrate an ecosystem-specific application for developing climate adaptation strategies for vulnerable grassland systems. Understanding how climate change might affect ecosystems and wildlife is of mounting concern, and developing real-world climate adaptation plans is an essential tool for conservation practitioners and managers.

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December 14, 2023 | 1:00pm

The Colorado River Basin is in crisis. As a result of climate change induced long-term drought, the Basin faces chronic water shortages with significant impacts across economic sectors. The agricultural sector is the largest water user in the Basin, meaning that farmers and ranchers are central to both the impacts of and solutions to water shortages. Their involvement will be key to developing effective policy solutions to today’s water crisis. This webinar will present findings from a survey of 1,020 agricultural water users throughout six states to understand their perspectives on the present crisis, current adaptation strategies, and preferences for water conservation programs to address water shortages going forward. It will also highlight case studies of conservation program preferences and adoption in two headwater subbasins in Colorado and Wyoming and the current status of efforts to adapt to increased uncertainty. Given the importance of agriculture as the primary water user in the Basin, proactively engaging agricultural communities will be critical to successfully managing water shortages. Understanding the perspectives and preferences of agricultural water users can help guide the development of solutions that work for producers and other users in the Basin.

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November 9, 2023 | 11:00am

Biogeography entwines the studies of demography, disturbances, dispersal, and in light of changing climate – disequilibrium dynamics. All of these ecological and evolutionary processes interact to shape the stability of species current and future distributions, and – as I will focus on in this talk – may be influenced by landscape heterogeneity. Using examples from a range of systems in the Western United States, including Mediterranean oak savannas, alpine tundra, and the high elevation desert, I will discuss the ways in which topographic gradients mediate population and community dynamics of plants under changing environmental conditions. For example, microclimatic gradients drive variation in demographic rates that result in multiple pathways to demographic stability across a species current range, but also may lead to multiple pathways of vulnerability to changing climate. Finally, I will discuss work synthesizing the knowledge gaps in climate adaptation in mountain landscapes – from the difficulty of defining a refugia to the challenges of managing systems with high climate variability and biological lags.

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October 12, 2023 | 11:00am

The Ogallala Aquifer (OA) underlies about 111 million acres of Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, including about 1.9 million acres of Tribal lands and 2.9 million acres of federal lands. Water from the aquifer is vital to regional aquatic, riparian, range, and agricultural ecosystems. Management of the OA presents challenges in various forms, as it is a common resource that crosses multiple state lines and is subject to an array of Tribal, Federal, State, and Municipal regulations. Aquifer depletion, especially in a region expected to become hotter and drier with climate change, presents a growing problem, threatening both natural and managed ecosystems. One way to begin approaching the complex issue of understanding and managing the Ogallala Aquifer at the regional scale is to address the problem of multiple large, disparate datasets that, as a result of being difficult to locate, are not easily combined and synthesized in a way that supports science-based decision-making and communication between and among stakeholders. The Ogallala Data Directory Project worked to identify datasets and make them easier to access with less labor-intensive searching by creating a metadata library with records corresponding to datasets located in various places online. Project outputs include a fully searchable website housing metadata records that assist in cataloging datasets by geographic scope of coverage, time period, and data type. Metadata entries are included for hydrologic, agricultural, and ecological data. The directory is hosted with the Ogallala Water Coordinated Agriculture Project data portal that has been built through ongoing collaboration with the Colorado State University Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory.

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September 14, 2023 | 11:00am

This webinar will discuss findings from the Grasslands Synthesis Project, recently published as USGS Open File-Report 2023-1037 and USGS Open File-Report 2023-1036. Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States, and understanding how climate change and variability will impact these ecosystems is crucial for successful grassland management in the 21st century. In 2020, the NC CASC began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies and nongovernmental organizations to help meet regional grassland management goals. This project, “A Synthesis of Climate Impacts, Stakeholder Needs, and Adaptation in Northern Great Plains Grassland Ecosystems'' (hereafter, the Grasslands Synthesis Project), had two primary goals: (1) to synthesize management goals and challenges for grassland managers across the region and (2) to assess the state-of-the-science and identify knowledge gaps for addressing the goals and challenges within the context of climate change. Two working groups and an advisory committee worked for two years to collect, analyze, and synthesize existing reports, peer-reviewed literature, and management documents. We identified 70 specific research questions organized into 15 categories of research needs that, if answered, would support grassland managers in meeting their management goals under a changing climate. Those research questions were then used to guide a synthesis of available information on the impacts of climate change and variability on temperature, water availability, wildfire, vegetation, wildlife, large-bodied ruminants, grazing, and land-use change and the implications for grassland management in the North Central region. We will discuss these findings, remaining research needs, and next steps in this research.

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May 11, 2023 | 11:00am

This presentation explores the social factors that contribute to agency decisions about ecological transformation. Faced with global climate change and ecological transformation, natural resource managers are being forced to reconsider how they engage with stakeholders and make decisions. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework has emerged in response to this challenge, offering natural resource managers a simple, explicit decision framework to support action. However, RAD decisions are judgments made by people. Managers presented with the same information about future conditions often come to different decisions. In this project, we explore the factors that shape management decisions and consider implications for how we engage with stakeholders. This presentation draws on social science research on both internal factors and external factors that shape management decisions. More specifically, we explore the intersection between managers’ mental models (their understanding of a social–ecological system) and the social and institutional factors that constrain managers’ decision spaces. Exploring these factors helps managers be more self-reflective, and also highlights the importance of using public and stakeholder engagement methods that consider other forms of knowledge and the range of social, political, and economic factors that will be impacted by management decisions.

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April 13, 2023 | 11:00am

The Sicangu Lakota (Rosebud Sioux) tribe recognizes the climate crisis we are facing, and is planning to adapt and thrive. The recently adopted Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sicangu Lakota Oyate recognizes the crisis, incorporates the knowledge of elders, and identifies priority actions the community can take. Recommendations fall into: Protecting the Oyate (community) -- focused on life and property protection and severe weather;  protecting our water -- acknowledging Rosebud's relative good fortune regarding water, but identifying critical steps to ensure its protection; and protecting the land and living relatives -- which acknowledges the potential for significant change due to climate change. The plan also recommends creation of a Sicangu Climate Center to hold and manage data and information about the tribe's lands, air, water, people, and climate and to use these to reinforce tribal sovereignty. 

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March 16, 2023 | 11:00am

Drought, despite being an episodic phenomenon, is capable of triggering persistent changes to ecosystems, with important consequences for both biodiversity and human communities. These transformational ecological droughts (TEDs) are increasing globally as a function of changing drought conditions, compounding stressors (including competing water use with humans), land management legacies, and novel climate contexts. Making decisions about how to adapt to these transformations is impaired by a limited recognition of the widespread potential for TEDs, a lack of understanding about the mechanisms by which transformation may occur, and uncertainty about the potential ecological trajectories such transformations will take. In this presentation, I will share the results of an interdisciplinary science synthesis that focused on how the risk of transformational drought is changing in the 21st century. I will provide a broad overview of the phenomenon of TED, including the diverse pathways by which it leads to transformation, highlighting mechanisms and case studies relevant to the North Central region.

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February 9, 2023 | 11:00am

Recent observed increases in wildfire activity across the contiguous United States (U.S.) and the increasingly apparent effects of climate change on fire regimes have created novel challenges for fire and ecosystem managers requiring more robust information on changes in future fire risk, especially for the largest fire events, over the next several decades. Today, the majority of wildfire ignitions are caused by human activities—so capturing anthropogenic aspects of changing fire activity beyond those associated with climate change is critically important. In this work, we use a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape, as well as projections of future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the largest fire, and overall area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. over the next four decades. By 2020-2060, we project an average increase in the number of fires (+56%) and burned area (+59%) across the U.S. compared to the historical period (1984-2019). For the largest fire events, we find nearly ubiquitous increases across all ecoregions (contiguous U.S. average +63%). Overall, our results suggest that climate change in the coming decades will drive more frequent occurrences of fires in regions where wildfire was rare (i.e., much of the eastern U.S.), and unprecedented increases in the size of the largest fires in regions where fires were common (i.e., in the western United States). 

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December 8, 2022 | 11:00am

Bison restoration has profound implications for ecological, economic and cultural domains, especially restoration into their former historic ranges. Climate change and climate variability, however, threaten sustainable restoration progress. The historic range of bison centered on the prairies of the Great Plains but spanned from Alaska to Mexico and from the Pacific coast to Florida and Pennsylvania, land which is now primarily privately held. Today, 63% of the 184,000 privately owned bison are located in the northern Great Plains, with 12,000 additional bison in the public sector, and 20,000 additional bison in each of the non-profit NGO and Tribal sectors. This multi-sectoral production-conservation system is referred to as the bison management system (BMS) and all sectors are intricately and economically linked through the production market and the cross-transferal of surplus animals. Bison are native ecological keystone species in native prairies and help to restore ecosystems. Their innate wallowing behavior produces shallow bare-soil depressions which create habitat for many other prairie-inhabiting species. Because bison create these wallows by excavating, urinating, and rolling, they also open the seed bank and concentrate nutrient inputs, and in turn increase plant biodiversity in the immediately adjacent landscape. Economically, the bison market has grown over the past 20 years, with bison market returns 1.5–3.3 times that of cattle. Finally, bison repopulation on Tribal lands increases food sovereignty, enhances economic stability, and revitalizes cultural connections to Tribal lands. The newly established Center of Excellence for Bison Studies at South Dakota State University aims to advance research, education, and outreach that address issues associated with each the ecological, economic, and cultural domains throughout the BMS, and is especially focused on restoration challenges associated with climate change and climate variability in conservation and production settings.

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November 10, 2022 | 11:00am

How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. We leveraged the Neotoma Paleoecology Database to develop the record of landscape-scale rapid ecological change and transformation of vegetation over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies ecoregions. We modeled the climate drivers of rapid vegetation change and transformation at the landscape scale with TRacE21ka paleoclimate output in Boosted Regression Trees, and we modeled the role of landscape characteristics at the site-level with a Bayesian approach. We identified 60 unique transformations across all 29 sites that took 21 different forms. We found that, at the landscape scale, a 2 ℃ rise in temperature initiated rapid ecological change, and a 5 ℃ rise led to ecological transformation. We also found that landscape characteristics played only a minor role in climate-driven vegetation change, with somewhat faster change on southwest-facing slopes in the Southern Rockies. In addition, transition out of any one particular vegetation type generally resulted in a diverse array of ecological trajectories and outcomes across sites, suggesting that managers would benefit from considering multiple potential ecological futures in climate adaptation planning. This study shows that rapid warming, to the degree expected within the next few decades in the Southern and Middle Rockies, can trigger landscape-scale ecological changes, regardless of the landscape context.

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October 20, 2022 | 11:00am

Resource systems in our region and beyond seem to be awash in extreme weather and climate events, mega-drought in the Colorado River Basin, floods in Yellowstone and Death Valley, “heat domes”, “flash droughts,” and wildfire conditions that defy even the most carefully planned and conducted prescribed burns. Extreme events pose a number of distinct challenges to resources planning and management, starting with the analytical effort needed to assess and detect their physical characteristics (frequency, magnitude, etc.), evaluate the threat they pose to natural and cultural resources, their likely evolution in a changing climate, and how to configure these insights into management plans. Managers know that “unexpected” conditions may arise, surprises are likely, and they cope and adapt plans in various ways. The toolkit for dealing with extremes might benefit from lessons from other fields, ranging from aviation to nuclear safety, disaster analysis and reduction, and we will examine some of these approaches, but also apply the most common strategy of all: drawing lessons from recent cases. Webinar participants are encouraged to have a case of extreme conditions or surprising system behavior in mind to offer for discussion. Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIrceupqzIuEtLWej6caFLxLent3pllgwKR

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September 8, 2022 | 11:00am

Participatory scenario planning offers a framework to imagine a range of potential future conditions and develop adaptation actions despite high uncertainty across future societal and environmental trajectories. Drs. Schuurman and Miller share their experience using scenario planning in U.S. national parks, engaging participants, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative information, and translating scenarios into action.

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May 15, 2022 | 3:00pm

Presented by: Ana Davidson, Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University Registration link: Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEodeyhrTMpGdVrVGZ622sNwK_vf8vOq9Kw After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting. Abstract: Our team is developing a large-scale collaborative conservation planning initiative for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem that stretches across North America’s Great Plains. Because prairie dogs are keystone species of North America’s central grasslands, their conservation and management often lies at the core of many conservation efforts across the region. Through mapping and ecological modelling, we are working to identify potential landscapes for conservation that will consider ecological, political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential and co-existence with human activities. Here, we will report on our habitat suitability model for the black-tailed prairie dog and landscapes we have identified to have high conservation potential for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem. About the speaker: Dr. Ana Davidson (http://anadavidson.weebly.com/) is a Research Scientist at the Colorado Natural Heritage Program at Colorado State University (CSU) and a Joint Faculty member in the Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology at CSU. Her research centers on biodiversity conservation, spanning multiple scales, from local field-based ecology to landscape ecology and global-scale macroecology. Much of her work focuses on species that play large and important ecological roles, such as burrowing mammals and large herbivores, that shape and transform ecosystems and are central to the conservation of associated species.

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May 12, 2022 | 11:00am

In April 2022, the NC CASC celebrated Earth Week by hosting Climate Solutions Days, an à la carte offering of presentations, workshops and trainings scheduled throughout the

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April 30, 2022 | 3:57pm

Presented by:  David Lawrence, National Park Service  Amber Runyon, National Park Service Other co-authors: John Gross, National Park Service Gregor Schuurman, National Park Service Brian Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, North Central CASC Joel Reynolds, National Park Service Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYrduGrpj4iE9INQlaV2SclWlQu123wURPH After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting.   Abstract: When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.  Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it.  Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive measures to prepare for and adapt to scenarios of change.   A key part of scenario planning is generating a list of potential future climates we may experience.  This webinar will describe and compare different approaches to generate the climate futures and identify an approach that captures a broad range of climate conditions (a key ingredient to developing scenarios) across both near and long-term planning horizons.  We then will describe tools for creating reproducible climate futures, including an R package and training materials that enables users to develop their own projections, and provide guidance on their use.  Over the past decade, we have operationalized the generation of climate futures and with the recent development of the Reproducible Climate Futures (RCF) R package, standardized and streamlined their production.  We have found climate futures and scenarios offer an adaptable approach to planning across a broad range of management contexts.    About the speakers: David Lawrence specializes in aquatic ecology and has worked as a climate change scientist within the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program since 2017.  In this role David conducts and translates climate change research to support forward-looking land and water management.  David has a PhD in ecology from the University of Washington.  Amber Runyon is an ecologist for the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program where she collaborates with park managers to provide management-relevant projections of future-climate that serve as the basis for climate-informed planning. Amber has a PhD in ecology from Colorado State University.  

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April 14, 2022 | 11:00am

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February 16, 2022 | 6:24pm

Presented by: Katherine Hegewisch (University of California Merced) John Guinotte (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Alexandra Kasdin (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Aimee Crittendon (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Abstract: Field biologists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service develop climate information for species status assessments of potentially endangered species using data from ClimateToolbox.org. In this webinar, we will discuss the data needs for these assessments and will provide an overview of the data and tools in the Climate Toolbox with specific examples of how biologists currently utilize the Toolbox for assessments. About the speakers: Katherine Hegewisch is a project scientist at the University of California Merced where she works as a climate data provider, analyst and web tool developer. She is the developer of the Climate Toolbox, a series of web tools for visualizing climate data. She received her PhD in physics from Washington State University in 2010. John Guinotte is a spatial ecologist with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), in its Ecological Services Program, based out of the legacy region 6 office in Lakewood Colorado. John assists FWS field offices across regions 5 and 7 with analytical, geospatial and statistical needs for listing or delisting species under the Endangered Species Act’s Species Status Assessments. In addition to informing listing decisions, John’s work supports habitat conservation plans, recovery, critical habitat, climate vulnerability and mitigation. John has PhD in Tropical Environmental Studies and Geography from James Cook University in Australia. Alex Kasdin is a Species Assessment Team Project Manager with the Ecological Services Program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; she works out of the Regional Office in Lakewood, Colorado. She leads teams of biological experts crafting Species Status Assessments to inform classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act. She also helps decision-makers apply the standards in the Act to determine if species warrant listing. Alex has a Bachelor’s degree in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and a Master’s in Public Affairs, both from Princeton University. Aimee Crittendon is a Biologist at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Western Colorado Ecological Services Field Office, where her work focuses on federally threatened and endangered species listing and recovery. Before her work with the service, Aimee served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Botswana and then went on to work for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an aquatic invasive species response coordinator. Aimee has a masters in Conservation Biology and Watershed Ecology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

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February 10, 2022 | 11:00am

Please join us for the NC CASC webinar on Thursday, December 9, 2021, 11a -12p MDT:  "Setting habitat protection and restoration priorities in a warming world: Lessons from Wyoming".  Presented by:  Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society Paul Dey, Wyoming Game & Fish Department Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJckdemvqzwsE9PhJZ5YF2s1WCriYijoEiFz  After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting.   Abstract: In 2020, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) partnered with the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) on a project designed to help the agency incorporate climate change into their Statewide Habitat Plan (SHP) that was slated for an update that year. WGFD and WCS worked together to develop and apply a process for incorporating climate change into the SHP, which included a participatory workshop, a post-workshop Information Needs Survey, and regular meetings throughout the year to translate findings from the workshop and survey into the updated SHP. As a result of this project, climate change was more extensively incorporated into the 2020 SHP relative to the previous version of the plan (completed in 2015). This included discussing climate change as a threat to achieving habitat protection and restoration for river, riparian and wetland habitats, as well as incorporating climate-informed management strategies and actions. The updated SHP also included climate change within the agency’s scoring system for allocating funding to habitat management projects. In addition to informing the SHP, the project also helped WGFD identify management-relevant climate-related information needs that are considered highly useful to WGFD staff and their management efforts. We believe that the project offers a useful model to other agencies that are interested in incorporating climate change into management plans, and to scientists and agencies looking to identify priority research needs related to climate change.  About the speakers: Molly Cross is a lead Climate Change Adaptation Scientist for the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). Her work brings together researchers and conservation practitioners to incorporate climate change science into on-the-ground conservation goals actions. She is also Director of Science for the WCS Climate Adaptation Fund, which supports applied projects demonstrating on-the-ground interventions for wildlife adaptation to climate change in the United States. Paul Dey is the aquatic habitat program manager for the Wyoming Game and Fish Department. In this role, he facilitates a team of twelve agency logists in implementing stream restoration, fish passage, and water management projects to improve stream functions and aquatic resources.  

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December 9, 2021 | 11:00am

This webinar is a recap of fall 2021 drought conditions, the drought outlook for this winter, and a brief discussion of the Mesonet program at South Dakota State University. Speakers include Crystal Stiles (NIDIS), Doug Kluck (NOAA), and Nathan Edwards (SDSU). Moderated by Stefan Tangen

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December 2, 2021 | 12:00pm

Please join us for the NC CASC webinar on Thursday, December 9, 2021, 11a -12p MDT:  "Setting habitat protection and restoration priorities in a warming world: Lessons from Wyomin

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December 1, 2021 | 8:09pm

 

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November 17, 2021 | 9:00am

Forest impacts on snow water resources: management and climate adaptation possibilities Presented by: Dr. Keith Musselman, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder Abstract: Most of the snow water resources that feed North America’s large rivers originate from forested land. Forest canopies greatly affect the snow on the ground. Forest cover intercepts snowfall that subsequently sublimates back to the atmosphere – a water resource that is never realized. At the same time, forest canopy shelters snow from wind and shades it from solar radiation, facilitating the persistent provision of meltwater late into the spring. In this talk, I present both empirical data and models to review how forest structure impacts snow and the critical consequences of climate change and forest structure degradation on the hydrology, meteorology and ecology of forests. The challenges and possibilities to inform adaptive response by forest management practitioners and the needs for robust, community-based predictive models are discussed. About the speaker: Dr. Keith Musselman is a research associate at INSTAAR. As a hydrologist, Keith assesses climate change and land cover impacts on freshwater availability, streamflow, and flood risk across a spectrum of scale. Keith holds a B.S. in Geology from the University of Vermont, an M.S. in Hydrology and Water Resources from the University of Arizona, and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from UCLA. As a postdoc, he worked for the University of Saskatchewan on the topics of forest hydrology and land cover change. He was a postdoctoral fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from 2015-2017 where he helped to advance hydrologic model treatment of cold region processes. Now at the University of Colorado Boulder, Keith leads multiple large interdisciplinary research projects including a team of 20 people to assess climate change impacts on Indigenous communities in Alaska and the Yukon using co-production. Keith has authored 30 publications including recent high-profile papers on snowmelt and flood risk in current and future climates.

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October 14, 2021 | 11:00am

This is the fourth in a series of webinars focused on providing Tribal resource managers with information and resources related to drought. Speakers include Doug Kluck (NOAA), Mark Junker (Sac and Fox of MO in NE & KS), and Crystal Stiles (NOAA-NIDIS). The webinar was facilitated by Stefan Tangen (GPTWA/NC CASC).

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September 30, 2021 | 12:00pm

Are you a resource manager or researcher interested in learning how to work with climate data in Python?

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September 1, 2021 | 9:00am

The NC CASC and USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub will hold a series of topic-based listening sessions with the Joint Stakeholder Committee (JSC) and their team members.

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August 26, 2021 | 9:00am

Presented by: Balaji Rajagopalan, Professor & Chair, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcvce6rrTorGdPCvw03x6P5UbHcT6NFUvgf After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important habitat in the northern Great Plains with millions of wetlands used by waterfowl, pheasants, deer, and many unique species that cannot be found elsewhere in the regional landscape. The region is highly sensitive to variations in climate, and it is projected to face climate changes in the future. Summer precipitation in the SEPPR is integral by helping to sustain the ecosystem after spring snowmelt. Thus, understanding, modeling, and projecting the summer hydroclimatology and ecology is crucial for resource managers of the SEPPR in managing the ecosystem efficiently. Expanding on available summer climate and climate variability information and providing unique tools that provide predictions will assist in their work. Motivated by this broader need, this research provides four key contributions. (1) We provide analysis and understanding of the space-time variability of summer hydroclimatology and potential mechanisms. We establish teleconnections and potential mechanisms driving the SEPPR summer precipitation variability through multivariate analysis of large-scale climate variables and regional rainfall. (2) Using the Lagrangian parcel-tracking model HYSPLIT, moisture sources and pathways of summer rainfall were identified. (3) We provide SEPPR resource managers with a predictive tool by employing an underutilized statistical forecasting technique – multivariate Canonical Correlation Analysis – to develop multisite forecasting models for spring and summer SEPPR pond counts. These models predict spring (May) and summer (July) pond counts for each region of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service’s pond and waterfowl surveys. (4) Finally, we provide SEPPR resource managers with a novel, predictive tool capable of simulating multiple vegetation types native to the SEPPR. This integrated climate-ecological modeling framework (ICEMF) couples a stochastic weather generator that can be conditioned on climate forecasts along with SEPPR climate, soil, and vegetation information in an ecological model, DayCent, to simulate ensembles of vegetation attributes in the SEPPR. The combination of new insights into the space-time hydroclimate variability, moisture sources and pathways of summer moisture, a multi-site forecasting model for ponds that supports SEPPR ecology, and the ICEMF makes a significant contribution to the broader community. These can be applied to model other ecological systems in the world, enabled to study impacts of climate change, and help with efficient and sustainable management. About the speaker: Professor Balaji Rajagopalan is the Chair of the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (CEAE) and a Fellow of Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), CU Boulder. He pursues research in diverse interdisciplinary areas spanning – hydro-climatology; water resources management, Indian summer monsoon, paleo-climate and stochastic hydrology. In addition, large scale statistical analysis and modeling for applications to water and wastewater quality, construction safety, building energy efficiency and others. For his research contributing to improved operations, management and planning of water resources in the semi-arid river basins of Western USA, especially the Colorado River System, he was a co-recipient of the Partners In Conservation Award from the Department of Interior in 2009. He was elected Fellow, American Geophysical Union, in 2019.

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August 12, 2021 | 11:00am

This is the 3rd webinar in our Summer Tribal Drought series. The webinar features Doug Kluck (NOAA), Dennis Longknife (Fort Belknap), Melissa Castiano and George Jordan (USFWS), and Britt Parker (NOAA NIDIS).

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July 27, 2021 | 12:00pm

Join us for the next Tribal Climate Webinar on July 27th at 10:00am MT.

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July 27, 2021 | 10:00am

Presented by: Gregor Schuurman, Ecologist, National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program Abstract: Strong climate trends and other modern human drivers effectively place ecosystems in new contexts with new challenges for managers and society. Mounting costs of restoring past conditions or even “holding the line” to preserve current conditions are increasingly likened to paddling upstream. This situation is both a practical and a philosophical challenge for managers because an assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability”—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management. This assumption is expressed in widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. In this brave new non-stationary world, resisting change is not always the most effective approach for achieving long-term management goals. In fact, unexamined resistance may lead to misinvestment of limited management resources and loss of opportunities for more effective action. Managers are therefore expanding their toolkit. Resisting change continues to be a valid approach where careful consideration shows it to be strategic (i.e., feasible and cost-effective), but is increasingly complemented by options to instead “go with the flow” and either accept the trajectory or intervene to direct it towards preferred new conditions. New thinking in the National Park Service along these lines encourages managers to consider the full range of potential decisions, as expressed in the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The RAD framework, the product of long-term collaboration among a diverse set of partners, helps managers make informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change. This presentation will describe the challenge of strong ecological trajectories and transformations and introduce the RAD framework and illustrate its application alongside other important tools and concepts. About the speaker: Dr. Gregor Schuurman is an Ecologist with the National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program, which is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado. He works with parks and partners to understand and adapt to a wide range of climate change impacts. Specifically, his work focuses on 1) helping incorporate climate projections into management and planning, 2) producing and synthesizing management-relevant science, and 3) developing climate adaptation tools and concepts. Gregor received his Ph.D. from the University of Washington's Zoology Department and his M.S. from University of Minnesota’s Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior.

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July 8, 2021 | 11:00am

Topics in this webinar include current drought conditions and outlooks, near-term and long-term actions to address drought specifically on rangelands in the North Central region. Speakers include Doug Kluck (NOAA), Darrel Duvall and Stan Boltz (NRCS), Zane Not Afraid (IAC), and Miranda Meehan (NDSU Extension).

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June 23, 2021 | 12:00pm

Presented by: Owen McKenna, Research Ecologist, USGS NPWRC; Ned Wright, Wildlife Biologist, USFWS HAPET Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions. Our goal with this interagency collaboration is to co-produce useable information to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. We are using a mechanistic hydrology model in combination with multi-decadal monitoring data and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. About the speakers: Dr. Owen McKenna is a Research Ecologist at Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, ND. Dr. McKenna holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Life Sciences at Arizona State University. His research is focused on studying how changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology and geochemistry of prairie-pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna has explored a regional climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems through analysis of long-term data. He also helped in development and application of the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS), which is an integrated hydro-geochemical model for prairie pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna is currently using PHyLiSS to assist land managers in estimating the future impacts of climate and land-use change on critical migratory waterfowl habitat. Ned Wright is a Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck, ND. Mr. Wright holds a B.S. in Conservation Biology from University of Wisconsin Madison. He oversees the coordination of long-term study of waterfowl populations in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. This survey is recognized as the primary method to monitor the abundance and distribution of breeding waterfowl by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.

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June 10, 2021 | 11:00am

Updates and projections on drought conditions in the Missouri River Basin focused on Tribal lands. Speakers include Dr. Crystal Stiles, BIA Fire Managers Dave Martin and Adam Wolf, and Standing Rock Sioux Tribe Water Administrator Doug Crow Ghost.

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May 26, 2021 | 12:00pm

Date: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Dannele Peck, Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpdO-srD4tGNTKSg19pPufOYPPz0hT7N-T After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The Grassland Productivity Forecast or “Grass-Cast” uses over 30 years of historical data on weather and vegetation growth—combined with satellite NDVI data and seasonal precipitation scenarios—to predict if rangelands in individual ~6 mile x 6 mile areas are likely to produce above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal amounts of vegetation. Grass-Cast can help public and private rangeland managers throughout the Great Plains and Southwest adaptively manage lands by providing early warning of drought-induced vegetation shortages. It was first released to the public in 2018 for the Northern Great Plains, then expanded to the Southern Great Plains in 2019, and most recently to the Southwest states of New Mexico and Arizona in 2020. Originally developed to inform rangeland livestock management decisions, Grass-Cast can also be relevant for management and modeling of wildlife populations that depend on grassland habitat. As a member of the Grass-Cast science and outreach team, Dr. Peck looks forward to the unique opportunity this webinar provides to share Grass-Cast with a ecosystems and wildlife-oriented audience—to discover, together, its potential applications beyond livestock. About the speaker: Dr. Dannele Peck is Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub, based out of Fort Collins, Colorado. The Hubs connect working-land managers with science-based resources and partners to empower climate-smart decision-making. Prior to joining USDA Agricultural Research Service in 2016, Dr. Peck was an Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Wyoming. She specializes in decision-making under uncertainty, including agricultural drought preparedness and response, and disease management at the livestock-wildlife interface. Raised on a dairy farm in upstate New York, Dr. Peck is a first-generation college student and proud alumna of the McNair Scholars Program. She holds a B.S. in Wildlife Biology and an M.S. in Agricultural Economics, both from the University of Wyoming, and a Ph.D. in Agricultural & Resource Economics from Oregon State University.

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May 13, 2021 | 11:00am

Date: Thursday, April 8, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Justin Gude, Wildlife Research & Technical Services Bureau Chief, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYsc-GgqjooEtO1BVH4MgBmHjTjJaIA75B7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Concerns about mountain goats have arisen in many areas in recent years. Climate change may negatively affect this alpine ungulate, and recent evidence indicates that mountain goats harbor respiratory pathogens associated with pneumonia epidemics in bighorn sheep. Mountain goat demographic and population data are difficult to collect and sparsely available, exacerbating these concerns. We used a structured decision making process to address these issues and uncertainties, building from a successful track record of using this approach to make management program decisions in Montana, USA. Our analysis predicted that translocations to establish new mountain goat populations would result in more area occupied by mountain goats at mid-century, regardless of the effects of climate change. We found that various management actions may improve population trends, although this was associated with considerable uncertainty. Value of information analyses revealed that more information about population dynamics, the presence of pneumonia-associated pathogens, and the consequences of mixing microbial communities during translocations will affect choices among alternative management actions. Optimal management choices also varied by individual risk tolerance for disease transmission, because translocations are expected to increase disease risks for mountain goats and sympatric bighorn sheep. We recommend that managers determine the tolerance for disease risks associated with translocations that they and constituents are willing to accept. From this, an adaptive management program can be constructed wherein a portfolio of management actions are chosen based on risk tolerance in each population, combined with the amount that uncertainty is reduced when paired with monitoring, to improve mountain goat conservation efforts. About the speaker: Justin Gude has been the Wildlife Research & Technical Services (RTS) Bureau Chief for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) since 2008. The RTS Bureau consists of wildlife research, health, biometrics, and survey programs, and their work covers a variety of taxa ranging in size from songbirds and bats to moose, in all corners of the state. Justin is responsible for overseeing the work of the RTS Bureau as well as ensuring integration of the wildlife research and management programs at FWP, so he is often involved in facilitating working groups such as that described in this presentation. He completed the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Decision Analysis Certification Program and has been involved in many structured decision-making processes, and he also is on the NC CASC- USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub Joint Stakeholder Committee.

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April 8, 2021 | 11:00am

Stefan Tangen and Dr. Valerie A. Small, the National Program Director at Trees, Water, and People, gave the webinar presentation, “Building Tribal Community Resilience: The Role of Nonprofits”. They discussed food sovereignty, building relationships with native communities, and the ways federal partners can support tribal resilience building.

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March 31, 2021 | 12:00pm

NC CASC Webinar Series: Our Changing Fire Regimes Presented by: Jennifer Balch, NC CASC University Director, University of Colorado-Boulder  Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAsc-2qrTktGNfU0IFzgBhh-dLJwBzqlT47 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with information on how to join the meeting.   Abstract: There are three ingredients needed for fire: fuel to burn, hot & dry conditions, and an ignition source. People are changing all three. The number of wildfires and the area burned has increased over the past several decades, in western U.S. forests by 1500%. Last year was one of the most expensive wildfire seasons ever in the U.S., costing over $16B. We need to learn to live with fire, again. But how? Ultimately, we need to burn better and build better. About the Speaker: Dr. Jennifer Balch is University Director of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and Director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado-Boulder. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography. Dr. Balch’s research aims to understand the patterns and processes that underlie disturbance and ecosystem recovery, particularly how people are shifting fire regimes and the consequences. Her work spans from temperate regions to the tropics exploring how the major ingredients to fire are changing: climate, fuels, and ignitions. She has conducted research in the field of fire ecology for nearly twenty years, and has lit a few experimental burns to understand the consequences of altered fire regimes.

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March 11, 2021 | 11:00am

Fiscal Year 2022 NC CASC Funding Opportunity

The NC CASC invites Statements of Interest (SOI) from 

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February 19, 2021 | 12:00pm

Presented by: Koren R. Nydick, Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAqf-6spjkjE9c1XO_UYZvDSAFoQQ-JehN0 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Scenarios are a great tool to examine possible climate futures, play out potential consequences, and identify preemptive actions to prepare for and adapt to changes. In 2011 as science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, I led a fire management futures scenario planning exercise and over the next few years incorporated scenarios into resource stewardship planning for giant sequoias and other priority resources. Almost as soon as the scenarios were written, aspects of them began to play out in real-time, and this experience has continued in my role as Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park. As a result, we are learning about climate change in real-time, including how to react as well as prepare for the future. The emerging picture underscores the urgency of actions to adapt to a changing climate, the critical role of other interacting stressors, and the essential need for triage and prioritization. About the speaker: Koren Nydick has been the Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park since 2018, overseeing the park's work on natural and cultural resources, planning and compliance, fire management, and research. Previously, she was an Ecologist and the park's science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California. Before her career in the National Park Service, Koren lived in Colorado for over ten years, including earning a PhD at Colorado State University and working at the Mountain Studies Institute where she coordinated its first climate change workshop in 2006.

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February 11, 2021 | 11:00am

NC CASC consortium partners, Phil Higuera and Kim Davis, University of Montana, held a workshop, "Managing Post-fire Vegetation Under Climate Change" on February 3-4, 2021 for land managers in the North Central region. Workshop goals included: 1. Share the state of knowledge on vulnerability to fire-catalyzed vegetation change and climate impacts on post-fire vegetation 2. Share tools relevant to managing post-fire landscapes and solicit feedback from participants 3. Identify knowledge gaps and additional information that would help managers make decisions regarding post-fire vegetation management. Click on the buttons below to view the video and slide presentations.

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February 3, 2021 | 12:00pm

Presented by: Joel B. Smith Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0ocuyurT4pHNOkHKONQaLd-Wyq2G9Mos_j After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: In my early days of assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation, I was relatively optimistic about the ability of the United States to adapt its “managed systems” to the projected climate change impacts. Managed systems have active human involvement such as management of coasts abutting settlements, water supplies, and flood management. In contrast, I have always been concerned about climate change impacts on natural ecosystems and developing countries because of a relative lack of adaptive capacity. My optimism was born from assumptions that anthropogenically induced climate change would involve a gradual change in climate and, we assumed, small changes in variability. I also assumed that with our wealth, technical capacity, and strong governance, we could take the steps to substantially reduce potentially adverse impacts of climate change. Our society had built major water and transportation within a few decades, at a faster commensurate or faster than projected rates of climate change. This did not assume that we would get everything right and not make mistakes, but that we could largely manage the increased risks. Based on how the climate is changing and the difficulties we as a country have in addressing major challenges, I am now more pessimistic about how well we will do adapting to climate change. While temperatures are rising as had been forecast, sea levels may rise more than had been projected, and we are already seeing increases in climate variability and unexpected changes in hurricane formation and movement and in the extent of fires and fire behavior. As these changes in climate have been emerging, our ability to adapt to them appears to be more limited. Our political system can work to address serious problems when a broad consensus exists about the nature of problems and the need for action. We are a very divided country politically, unable to agree about the science of such pressing problems as climate change and even the coronavirus. Our society seems incapable of addressing long term problems such as the general decay in infrastructure or decreasing public funding for education. Will we be able to overcome such problems to not only substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions but invest hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars needed to adapt to observed and anticipated changes in climate? While we have the wealth, technology, and governance systems that enable us to adequately respond to emerging challenges such as climate change, will the combination of more destructive changes in climate and our inability to effectively overcome major policy challenges cause us to experience more adverse impacts of climate change than had been thought? Based on what I see I am concerned it could turn out that way. I will focus on fire and risks to the wildland urban interface as an example of rapidly growing climate risks managed through decentralized and inconsistent policy processes that may not be up to the major challenge of adaptation. About the speaker: Joel B. Smith has been analyzing climate change impacts and adaptation issues for over three decades. He was a coordinating lead author or lead author on the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mr. Smith was an author on three U.S. National Climate Change Assessments (NCA), including Chapter Lead on the International Chapter for the fourth NCA. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences “Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change.” Mr. Smith has provided technical advice, guidance, and training on assessing climate change impacts and adaptation to people around the world and to international organizations, the U.S. government, states, municipalities, and the non-profit and private sectors. He worked for the U.S. EPA from 1984 to 1992, where he was the deputy director of Climate Change Division. He has been a consultant since 1992 and is now an independent consultant. Mr. Smith was a coeditor of The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States (1989), As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications (1995), Adaptation to Climate Change: Assessments and Issues (1996), Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, and Development (2003), and The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive Analysis of California (2006). He has published more than 75 articles and chapters on climate change impacts and adaptation in peer-reviewed journals and books and has edited a number of books on climate change. Mr. Smith received a BA from Williams College in 1979 (graduating magna cum laude), and a Masters in Public Policy from the University of Michigan in 1982.

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January 14, 2021 | 11:00am

Anthony Ciocco, NC CASC’s BIA Pathways Program Intern, presented the webinar, “Conceptual Models for Integration of Tribal Culture with Tribal Wildlife Management” in January 2021. He discussed his forthcoming presentation with proposed models for Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) integration into Fish and Wildlife Management with the Navajo Nation as an example.

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January 10, 2021 | 12:00pm

“Building Relational and Effective Partnerships with Indigenous Communities” with James Rattling Leaf, Sr.

Tue, November 17, 2020

12:00 PM – 1:00 PM MST

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November 13, 2020 | 5:37pm

Presenters: Joseph J. Barsugli (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory) Stephen Torbit (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO - retired) John M. Guinotte (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO) Abstract: Persistent spring snowpack has been proposed to be an important factor to determine suitable habitat for wolverine, particularly for denning by pregnant females, based on correlative studies from the northern Rocky Mountains. Reduction in deep snow for denning resulting from climate change was cited in proposals to list wolverine under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and in subsequent litigation to force a listing under the ESA and a federal court agreed this component was a significant factor for the Fish and Wildlife Service to consider. An earlier climate change assessment had revealed significant loss of snowpack in the future in lower elevations in the Rocky Mountains, but the spatial resolution of modeling mountain snowpack was coarse enough to have limited value for assessing impacts on a scale relevant for wolverine conservation. We modeled the future impacts of climate change on persistent snow in occupied and historical wolverine habitats at a 250 meter resolution in order to explicitly understand the effects of topography, slope and aspect on snow cover persistence. We then compared those snow cover projections to existing data on known wolverine den locations and potential wolverine denning locations in the two study areas. The results demonstrate significant retention of snow cover at higher elevations within documented and predicted wolverine denning habitat in both study areas. We project persistent spring snow cover is significant, abundant, widely dispersed and available for wolverines across both study areas, and across several climate scenarios for the mid 21st century.

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November 12, 2020 | 11:00am

"Understanding and Quantifying Impacts of Regional Climate Change". Imtiaz Rangwala. Guest lecture presented to the graduate class "Climate Change Response: Adaptation, Mitigation & Transformation", University of Wyoming. September 15, 2020.

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October 6, 2020 | 12:00pm

Max Joseph of the NC CASC and Earth Lab provides an overview of the Climate Futures Toolbox, a new tool developed by the NC CASC. About the CFT: Managers and climate impacts researchers face multiple pain points when trying to use climate projection data: discovery, access, and usage. There are multiple global climate model repositories (CMIP3, CMIP5), multiple downscaling techniques (MACA, BCSD, LOCA), and multiple file formats. Each product has different spatio‐temporal resolutions, different climate variables, and different limitations. The investigator team proposed to develop and implement the Climate Futures Toolbox (CFT), a seamless R‐code workflow to ingest historic and projected climate data and generate summary information and customizable graphics for user‐defined time periods and regions of interest. Project goals include: creating a lower barrier to entry for climate data consumers that use R; automating scenario planning data tasks; empowering a larger user community; and reducing potential for errors. The investigator team was committed from the start to creating the CFT as an open‐source and openworkflow tool and to engaging management partners directly in the tool design. We hope that this contributes to the lifetime of the tool by allowing others to contribute future code to summarize climate data in new and different ways as user needs evolve and new data become available.

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September 11, 2020 | 12:00pm

People, Nature, and Future Climate: Developing prioritized climate adaptation actions through a stakeholder driven process in southwest Colorado. Presenters: Renee Rondeau, Conservation Planner and Ecologist, Colorado Natural Heritage Program Marcie Bidwell, Executive Director, Mountain Studies Institute, Durango, CO Andrew Breibart, Hydrologist, BLM, Gunnison Field Office. Abstract: Climate science was the foundation for building adaptation strategies in two rural Colorado mountain communities. But science alone was not enough. In order to develop on-the-ground actions, people were essential. Over a three year period, over 70 stakeholders, representing 20 organizations worked with our science team that included social scientists, ecologists, and climate scientists. Three climate scenarios informed us that droughts, fires, and an increase in insects and disease are likely to change our natural and social systems. Our groups developed adaptation actions that fit into three overarching strategies that can help mitigate some of the climate impacts: 1) Identify, protect, and manage climate refugia, 2) Increase drought resiliency in focal areas, and 3) Allow and assist social and ecological transformation. On-the-ground wet meadow restoration efforts in Gunnison, a Drought-resiliency group in the Mancos Valley, and transformation research in Mesa Verde National Park are just three of the on-going projects that highlight the importance of building local climate working groups.

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September 10, 2020 | 11:00am

A film, "Holding Back the Snowpack (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG8YWqSHF88) ," explores the suite of tools stakeholders in the Big Hole Valley are using to improve riparian habitat along the Big Hole River. The Big Hole Watershed Committee collaborates with a variety of partners to create life-giving wetlands in SW Montana. Taking cues from flood irrigation and beavers, natural water storage projects help us adapt to climate change by slowing spring runoff and soaking the soil sponge. The film highlights our pro-active work to increase the availability of water for all uses by making the most of abundant winter snowpack. Support our life-giving work by making a donation today at https://bhwc.org/giving/ Film production by FilmWest. Project funding: The Wildlife Conservation Society, Natural Resourced Damage Program, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, Montana Watershed Coordination Council, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Project Partners and Contractors: BHWC, Water and Environmental Technologies, Watershed Consulting, Pioneer Technical, Morrison-Maierle, Basic Biological Services, and Montana Conservation Corps. photo credit: Big Hole Watershed Committee

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August 19, 2020 | 12:00pm

Post-fire conifer regeneration in a changing climate. Kimberley Davis and Philip Higuera, University of  Montana. Abstract: Managers tasked with maintaining forest ecosystems and the services they provide are challenged by the combined impacts of increasing wildfire activity and more stressful post-fire climate conditions. To understand how climate change may affect post-fire regeneration, we examined the relationship between annual climate and post-fire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2820 destructively sampled trees from 32 wildfires across four regions in the western US. We showed that at dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration, thus creating increasing uncertainty for managers about where they can expect forest recovery following fire. Given the recent increase in area burned across the West, managers often need to stretch limited resources for post-fire reforestation efforts. To help address these challenges, we are applying our models relating post-fire regeneration to annual climate conditions and other biophysical predictors to create a tool that predicts probability of post-fire regeneration within recent fire boundaries. The tool will help managers prioritize management actions, such as tree planting. We will discuss the recent application of this tool to a fire in western MT in collaboration with foresters from The Nature Conservancy.

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July 9, 2020 | 11:00am

Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), provides a summary about the online workshop she held with the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), related to their collaborative effort to incorporate climate change information and adaptation strategies into the 2020 revision of the WY Statewide Habitat Plan. In addition to supporting climate‐informed decisions by WGFD, this project is also designed to be a learning opportunity on methods and approaches to coproducing and co‐synthesizing climate science that is relevant and used in management decisions. Molly shares some of the content of what was discussed (related to the WY Statewide Habitat Plan), in addition to her experience doing co‐production work in a virtual setting.

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May 27, 2020 | 12:00pm

Alisa Wade, USGS Research Coordinator, NC CASC, provides a brief overview of stakeholder engagement for creating actionable science.

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January 15, 2020 | 12:00pm