NCA5 Key Messages Tool | North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center

What is the NCA5?

The NCA5, or Fifth National Climate Assessment, is part of the Congressionally-mandated National Climate Assessment series that is released approximately every four years by the US Global Change Research Program. These reports bring together teams of professionals to synthesize knowledge about current and projected trends in global climate change to provide an authoritative source on the state of climate knowledge in the US.

Where does the information in the NCA5 come from?

According to the US Global Change Research Program:

“The findings in [the NCA5] are based on a comprehensive review and assessment of information sources determined to meet the standards and documentation required under the Information Quality Act and the Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018, including peer-reviewed literature, other literature, Indigenous Knowledge, other expert and local knowledge, and climate data processed and prepared by NOAA’s Technical Support Unit… [The] NCA5 was thoroughly reviewed by Federal Government experts, external experts, and the public multiple times throughout the report development process. An expert external review was performed by an ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.”

For more information, see NCA5 Appendix 1: Assessment Development Process; Appendix 2: Information Quality; and Appendix 3: Scenarios and Datasets.

Structure of the NCA5

The NCA5 consists of the following sections:

Overview
Physical Science Chapters
National Topic Chapters
Regional Chapters
Response Chapters
Focus on… Features
Appendices
Glossary of Terms
Artwork and Gallery

These chapters are further broken down into a series of Key Messages, which are the takeaway points of each chapter; these statements summarize the current and projected state of the topic in question and discuss their significance for future climate. Each Key Message is followed by a measure of confidence, which is determined by the “type, amount, quality, strength, and consistency of evidence” as well as the consistency and ability of methods to evaluate this evidence (NCA5: Front Matter). Many Key Messages are also given a measure of likelihood, which measures the degree of certainty based on statistical analysis of “observed or projected results or on the authors’ expert judgment” (NCA5: Front Matter).

For example, this table could be interpreted as follows:

Key Message	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
KM25.1: Climate Change is Compounding the Impacts of Extreme Events	The Northern Great Plains region is experiencing unprecedented extremes related to changes in climate, including severe droughts…	Likely	High
	...increases in hail frequency and size...		Medium
	...floods...	Very Likely	High
	...and wildfire.	Likely	High

Based on this information, the Northern Great Plains is likely to experience severe droughts and wildfire and the authors have high confidence in this projection based on data and literature reviews; the Northern Great Plains region will be very likely to experience extreme floods, and the authors have high confidence in this projection as well. Meanwhile, authors could not determine a measure of likelihood for increases in hail frequency and size, but based on available data, they have medium confidence that this projection is accurate.

About this tool

The NCA5 Key Messages Tool, created as part of the NC CASC’s 2024 Rapid Climate Assessment Program (RCAP), aims to summarize the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) for each state in the NC CASC region as it relates to four topics: Water, Precipitation, and Drought; Agriculture and Land Use; and Communities and Management.

Water, Precipitation, and Drought: This section discusses water as a resource as well as climate-driven changes in precipitation and resulting events, such as drought.
Agriculture and Land Use: This section discusses agriculture in each region, in addition to climate-driven impacts on agriculture and land-based industries.
Communities and Management: This section synthesizes information on a region's communities that are at disproportionate risk of climate change and/or leading efforts to mitigate impacts from climate change. It also discusses regional management and strategies for a variety of climate-related challenges.

The tool output synthesizes information from the following chapters - when applicable to the state and topic in question - to provide a summary of relevant NCA5 data and projections:

Chapter 4: Water
Chapter 7: Forests
Chapter 8: Ecosystems
Chapter 11: Agriculture
Chapter 16: Indigenous Peoples
Chapter 25: Northern Great Plains
Chapter 26: Southern Great Plains
Chapter 28: Southwest

Note: Key Messages quoted in output tables are direct quotes from the NCA5, while other summary content may be paraphrased; sources can be found in parentheses at the end of the sentence in all cases.

Chapters in the NCA5 are broken down into a series of Key Messages, which are the takeaway points of each chapter; these statements summarize the current and projected state of the topic in question and discuss their significance for future climate. Each Key Message is followed by a measure of confidence, which is determined by the “type, amount, quality, strength, and consistency of evidence” as well as the consistency and ability of methods to evaluate this evidence (NCA5: Front Matter). Many Key Messages are also given a measure of likelihood, which measures the degree of certainty based on statistical analysis of “observed or projected results or on the authors’ expert judgment” (NCA5: Front Matter).

Note: Key Messages quoted in output tables are direct quotes from the NCA5, while other summary content may be paraphrased; sources can be found in parentheses at the end of the sentence in all cases.

For example, this table could be interpreted as follows:

Key Message	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
KM25.1: Climate Change is Compounding the Impacts of Extreme Events	The Northern Great Plains region is experiencing severe droughts	Likely	High
	Increases in hail frequency and size	Likely	Medium
	Floods	Very Likely	High
	Wildfire	Likely	High

Colorado - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, Colorado is part of the Southwest region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Southwest related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
	KM7.3: Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems	Climate change creates challenges for natural resource managers charged with preserving the function, health, and productivity of forest ecosystems.		High
		Forest landowners, managers, and policymakers working at local, state, Tribal, and federal levels are preparing for climate change through the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.		Medium
		Proactive adaptation of management strategies that create, maintain, and restore resilient forest ecosystems are critical to maintaining equitable provisioning of ecosystem services.		Medium
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.2: Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss are Accelerating	The interaction of climate change with other stressors is causing biodiversity loss, changes in species distributions and life cycles, and increasing impacts from invasive species and diseases, all of which have economic and social consequences.	Very Likely	High
		Future responses of species and populations will depend on the magnitude and timing of changes, coupled with the differential sensitivity of organisms; species that cannot easily relocate or are highly temperature sensitive may face heightened extinction risks.	Very Likely	High
		Identification of risks (e.g., extreme events) will help prioritize species and locations for protection and improve options for management.	Very Likely	High
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch11: Agriculture	KM11.1 Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape	Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices...		Very High
		...which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions...	Likely	Medium
		...and improve agricultural resilience to climate change.		High
	KM11.2 Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways	Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society.	Likely	Medium
		Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers...		High
		...and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging.		High
	KM11.3 Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities	Rural communities steward much of the Nation's land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services.		High
		These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation.	Likely	Medium
		Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods.		High
Ch16: Indigenous Peoples	KM16.1: Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty	Climate change continues to cause negative effects on critical aspects of Indigenous Peoples' well-being, including their livelihoods, health, nutrition, and cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories.		Very High
		Indigenous Peoples are responding in diverse ways, including through energy sovereignty.		Very High
	KM16.2: Self-Determination is Key to Indigenous Peoples' Resilience to Climate Change	By exercising their right to self-determination, Indigenous Peoples can respond to climate change in ways that meet the needs and aspirations of their communities.		Very High
		However, their ability to exercise this right is often undermined by institutions and policies shaped by the impacts of settler colonialism.		Very High
		Expanded support from federal and state governments has the potential to uphold Indigenous rights to self-determination for guiding climate resilience.		Very High
	KM16.3: Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response	Indigenous Peoples lead numerous actions that respond to climate change.		High
		Indigenous-led organizations, initiatives, and movements have demonstrated diverse strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation that are guided by Indigenous Knowledges and values and by the pursuit of Indigenous rights.		High
Ch28: Southwest	KM28.1: Drought and Aridity Threaten Water Resources	Climate change has reduced surface water and groundwater availability for people and nature in the Southwest…		Very High
		...and there are inequities in how these impacts are experienced.		High
		Higher temperatures have intensified drought and will lead to a more arid future;	Very Likely	High
		without adaptation, these changes will exacerbate existing water supply-demand imbalances.	Likely	High
		At the same time, the region is experiencing more intense precipitation events, including atmospheric rivers, which contribute to increased flooding.		High
		Flexible and adaptive approaches to water management have the potential to mitigate the impacts of these changes on people, the environment, and the economy.		Medium
	KM28.3: Increasing Challenges Confront Food and Fiber Production in the Southwest	Continuing drought and water scarcity will make it more difficult to raise food and fiber in the Southwest without major shifts to new strategies and technologies.		High
		Extreme heat events will increase animal stress and reduce crop quality and yield, thereby resulting in widespread economic impacts.	Likely	High
		Because people in the Southwest have adapted to drought impacts for millennia, incorporating Indigenous Knowledge with technological innovation can offer solutions to protect food security and sovereignty.		Medium
	KM28.4: Climate Change Compromises Human Health and Reshapes Demographics	Increases in extreme heat, drought, flooding, and wildfire activity are negatively impacting the physical health of Southwest residents.		High
		Climate change is also shaping the demographics of the region by spurring the migration of people from Central America to the Southwest.		Medium
		Individuals particularly vulnerable to increasing climate change impacts include older adults, outdoor workers, and people with low income.		High
		Local, state, and federal adaptation initiatives are working to respond to these impacts.		High
	KM28.5: Changes in Wildfire Patterns Pose Challenges for Southwest Residents and Ecosystems	High-severity wildfires are expected to continue in coming years, placing the people, economies, ecosystems, and water resources of the region at considerable risk.	Very Likely	High
		Opportunities for adaptation include pre- and postfire actions that reduce wildfire risk and facilitate ecosystem restoration and include traditional land stewardship practices…		High
		...and the application of Indigenous cultural fire.		Medium

Summary

Compounding effects of climate and human systems cause property and economic damage: Compound effects, or interactions among disturbances or disasters, often “amplify the effects of individual disturbances on ecosystem services,” human systems, and the economy (5). For instance, “climate change-driven changes in precipitation amount and duration, snowpack/ snowmelt, and soil moisture have combined with land-cover change and increasing property values to increase overall economic damages from floods” (2). Specifically, “drought and related heatwaves in the US caused $334.8 billion in damages,” including costs related to shortages in water supplies and power generation as well as reduction in agricultural production and other regular industrial activities (2).

“A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation” (2)

Figure 4.12: "Cumulative inland flood damages (in 2021 dollars) across the contiguous US (gray) and estimated portion due to changes in precipitation (green) are shown for 1988-2021. Over this period, heavy precipitation has increased over most of the US due to climate change (see Figure 2.8 for heavy precipitation changes over the 1958-2021 period). Error bars (in green) show the plausible range of cumulative damages in 2021, calculating a 95% confidence level. Roughly 20-46% of increases in observed flood damages can be attributed to increasing precipitation (assuming the same historical development patterns over the period 1988-2021). Other important contributors to flood damage include urbanization and land-use change, which can exacerbate runoff, and growth in the number and value of flood-affected buildings and other assets. Adapted from Davenport et al. 2021" (2).

Impacts to infrastructure and industry: At large scales, flooding of large river and lake systems disrupts infrastructure and industries, including “rail, roadway, and river transportation; agricultural production; commodity deliveries; and industrial production” (2). Across the US, infrastructure - including drinking water delivery infrastructure - is “aging and deteriorating, increasing the risks of contamination and delivery of unpotable water” (2). For instance, “more than 1,000 community water systems… are already providing poor-quality water and are not prepared to cope with climate-change driven flooding, drought, and waterborne diseases” (2). 

Land-based industries

Forestry: While exact impacts are uncertain due to disturbances, such as droughts, fires, insects, and diseases, climate change will impact forest growth and therefore wood and paper markets (5). Resulting “forest management actions taken in response to climate change” will also affect the forestry industry and associated ecosystem services of forests, such as carbon storage (5). 

Recreation: Climate change is decreasing certain recreational activities and increasing others; “for example, warming and reduced snowpack have had negative impacts on winter sports and positive effects on warm-weather activities, with mixed effects on water-based activities” (5). 

Agriculture: Effects of climate change have disrupted, and will continue to disrupt, all aspects of agriculture. These effects include “decreased productivity of crop species due to increased pest infestations” and limited water availability (10). Due to the current and projected effects of climate change, adaptation of “agricultural practices, including crop selection, use of equipment, and management approaches” will be required (12). For more information, see NCA5 Tool outputs for your location + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

“All dimensions of food security - availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability - are expected to be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average climatic conditions, as well as increases in climate variability and the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climate extremes” (13). This includes disruption of the food supply chain, including “production, storage, processing, distribution, retail, and consumption,” which will have “local and global impacts… on food security” (13). Localized impacts of climate change on food security will be determined by communities’ resilience to a variety of factors, including dependence on “locally grown versus imported foods and how systems respond to changes in climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic factors” (13, 14). 

“Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems” (13)

Figure 11.9: "A food system is a complex network that encompasses all inputs and outputs involved food production, foraging, harvesting, transport, processing, retailing, consumption, and food loss and waste. There can be different types of food systems, each having impacts on and being impacted by climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems. Interactions between these systems influence human well-being through food security outcomes, such as food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Interventions, such as mitigation and adaptation, can reduce risks to food systems, which improves food security and well-being within socioeconomic systems. Adapted with permission from Figure 5.1 in Mbow et al. 2019" (13).

As of the 2023 release of the NCA5, “approximately 38 million people in the United States live in food-insecure households” (13). As climate change results in “increasingly frequent and severe extreme events… food system disruptions… will disproportionately affect food accessibility, nutrition, and health,” particularly in low-income and underserved communities, who already face many of these risks due to their rural location (13, 14). Additionally, communities who rely on hunting, foraging, and subsistence farming - whether for cultural, recreational, financial, or other reasons - may be at increased risk of food insecurity (13).

Ecosystem services are being impacted by climate change. 

Due to climate change, the ranges and abundances of “some plants and fungi used for food, medicine, and other purposes” have been altered (5). 

Furthermore, “climate change affects heritage values, cultural identity, and spiritual connections associated with forests” (5). 

“Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual” (10)

Figure 8.17: "Ecosystem services, also called "nature's contributions to people," are the benefits that humans receive or derive from ecosystems. These are both material (e.g., energy sources) and non-material (e.g., sense of place), and contribute to the regulation of ecosystem processes. The broad categories of benefits pictured are fluid and overlapping. People value nature in multiple ways, such as "living as" nature (Figure 16.3) or "living from" nature (e.g., people's dependency on key services). Adapted from O'Connor and Kenter 2019" (10).

Water availability for both human and agricultural uses has, and will continue to, be reduced due to climatic changes in temperature and precipitation (10). 

Invasive species are experiencing range shifts due to climate change, which can have either positive or negative effects on ecosystem services, depending on the species (9). Ranges of many invasive species are expected to expand, as “some invasive species are more successful than natives… because they better tolerate or more rapidly adapt to changing conditions. Yet not all invasive species are favored by climate change; many invasive plants and vertebrates may experience decreased ranges while the ranges of many invasive invertebrates and pathogens are expected to increase” (9). 
While spruce and mountain pine beetles are native - not invasive - species in the Northern Great Plains, outbreaks have become more frequent due to climate change (4). Historically, these species’ populations have been kept in check by cold winters that reduce their population for the next year (4). However, as the climate changes and winters become more warm, it is no longer cold enough to keep beetle populations from increasing to unusual levels (4). In addition, increases in drought have stressed forest ecosystems, making trees more susceptible to colonization from beetles (4). Together, these factors are responsible for the large-scale beetle outbreaks observed in the Northern Great Plains, and have impacted forestry practices and industries (4). 

Wildfires, which are a natural part of the Southwestern ecosystem, are becoming more frequent and more severe (23). This has resulted in increasingly severe property damage and risk to human lives (23). Communities in the Southwest have a variety of “exposure to wildfire risk and capacity to adapt,” making some more vulnerable to wildfires than others (23). 

“Diminished benefits from ecosystem services can also occur based on other factors… [such as] discriminatory planning practices, housing segregation, and racism [that] have created inequitable distributions of services, leading to communities of color experiencing reduced access to benefits like improved air quality or heat reduction” (10). Interactions between human and environmental impacts on ecosystem services “highlight[s] the need for clear management priorities and recognition of diverse values” (10). 

“Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide” (7)

Figure 8.1: "Species and ecosystems respond to pressures in different ways, such as shifting their locations or transforming into new, often degraded systems less able to provide ecosystem services. Adaptation measures can help species and ecosystems cope with some climate impacts but are not always going ot be effective or feasible, requiring increasingly difficult decisions on what resources to prioritize and what changes to accept. Adapted from Lipton et al. 2018" (7).

“Human well-being is dependent on natural and managed ecosystems, which provide crucial functions and resources for nearly everything we eat, make, and do”; therefore, human health is strongly tied to ecosystem health (7). 

Increasing wildfires, and therefore increasing levels of wildfire smoke, “are increasing respiratory and cardiovascular-associated hospitalizations and out-of-hospital cases of cardiac arrest” (5). In addition, “intensified aridity from higher temperatures and drought is expected to lead to more dust storms,” which will further increase respiratory illnesses (22). 

“Disease threats to wildlife, plants, and humans have emerged as a significant climate change risk [as] climate change promotes range expansions and population growth of disease-spreading (vector) species, increased host susceptibility via stress, and enhanced pathogen transmission, with major economic consequences” (9). Climate-impacted disease creates risks in both humans and wildlife (9). For instance, increases in human West Nile virus cases due to increased mosquito populations can be attributed to temperature and precipitation changes caused by climate change, while the fungal white-nose syndrome causing widespread bat mortality can also be affected by climatic changes (9, Table 8.1). 

Productivity and safety of outdoor workers, including farmworkers, are being affected by “higher temperature and humidity” resulting in greater rates of “heat-related stress and death” (13, 22). As a result, the “number of unsafe working days is projected to double by midcentury” (13). In addition to extreme heat, high ozone days are also projected to “increase heat and air-pollution exposure, illness, and premature death” (22). 

Disproportionate impacts: “Climate change creates unequal burdens on people and communities,” and “relationships between humans and ecosystems, such as the kinship values that many Black, Indigenous, and Tribal communities experience with regard to nature, are also endangered by [climate] change” (2, 7). Disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities include: 

“Increased exposure to water-related hazards” by communities living along large bodies of water, people working in agriculture or fisheries, and Tribal and Indigenous communities who are often “displace[d] from lands with cultural significance” (2). Additionally, “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas are at greatest risk” of exposure to flooding risks and damages as well as “exposure to pathogens and pollutants from climate change-driven impacts to water quality” (2). 

“Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents” (2)

Figure 4.14: "Average annual losses - economic damages in a typical year - due to floods in census tracts with a Black population of at least 20% are projected to increase at roughly twice the rate of that in tracts where Black residents make up less than 1% of the population. Black bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Adapted from Wing et al. 2022" (2).

Tribal and Indigenous communities’ “health, economic vitality, education, environmental quality, governance, and cultural continuance” are negatively impacted by climate change (15). While exacerbated by climate change, these challenges are rooted in historical injustice (15). Tribal and “Indigenous initiatives addressing climate and energy are often organized as movements for protecting and advancing Indigenous rights… to self-determination regarding climate change responses in their territories - rights that are critical to Indigenous efforts to choose the best pathways for supporting health, economic vitality, educational institutions, environmental quality, governance, cultural continuance, and spiritual traditions” (15). 

“Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change” (15)

Figure 16.3: "As an intentionally non-exhaustive example by particular Indigenous designers, the "Indigenous holistic worldview" image demonstrates interconnected drivers of sustenance, climate change impacts, and future aspirations. Illustrations connecting human social systems and the environment, including the relationship between social justice (e.g., colonialism, racism) and environmental change (e.g., ecological degradation, pollution), represent certain Indigenous approaches to climate change. Figure credit: © STACCWG 2021. Used with permission" (15).

The present and projected effects of climate change “disrupt the conditions for critical Indigenous subsistence practices… [which] Indigenous livelihoods and economies often rely on,” along with “natural resource management, small businesses, nonprofit organizations, community development corporations and financial institutions, Tribal government employment and contracts, Tribal enterprises, and multinational corporations” (16).

Tribal communities have expressed the “need for climate impact assessments as a first step to resilience planning and identified information about climate change impacts to water as a top priority” (3). Lack of data, and lack of data sovereignty, are major barriers to Tribal and Indigenous response to climate change (3). Other priorities include “food security, protection of Traditional Knowledge, and Tribal capacity to implement adaptation plans, monitor and collect data, and conduct climate vulnerability assessments are also high priorities” (3). While federal assistance is available for some Tribes, barriers include “access to limited resources, including agency requirements (e.g., funding matches); lack of Tribal capacity; and navigating interagency processes” (3).

Similarly, the “lack of [Indigenous communities’] capacity to transition toward renewable energy can be considered a vulnerability to climate change - that is, vulnerability to being excluded from unlocking the capacity to enact mitigation measures” (16). Indigenous self-determination in renewable energy includes “barriers to infrastructure ownership, access to financing tax initiatives, the navigation of regulations and jurisdictions, and income opportunities from renewables” (16).

Additionally, effects of climate change on culturally-significant ecosystems “exacerbat[e] environmental injustices affecting Indigenous and Tribal food sovereignty, health, cultural practices, and knowledge transmission” (5). This is because “Indigenous concepts of health and well-being often remain closely tied to the health of the environment, waters, and more-than-human relatives that provide for subsistence and cultural needs” (16). In addition to impacts from food insecurity and more widespread climate-related health concerns (such as heat-related stress), Indigenous Peoples are also experiencing “post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, suicide, and other mental, spiritual, and socio-emotional health challenges” (16).

Ultimately, self-determination is central to Indigenous Peoples’ “decisions about how to respond to climate change in ways that meet community-defined needs and aspirations. Indigenous climate resilience requires having adequate options for deciding how to adapt to and mitigate climate change and the capacity to implement decisions and make strategic decisions upon evaluation” (17). However, “Indigenous self-determination has been limited by institutions and policies, colonial in their organizational structure, that enable federal, state, and local governments and private industry to make decisions for Indigenous Peoples and to maintain low levels of funding and administrative support for implementation” (17). Therefore, “many Tribes have called for Indigenous-led management, as well as comanagement of lands, waters, and other resources currently under federal or state management… [which] represents opportunities to assert Tribal resource-management practices that address climate change” (17).

Management and planning: Uncertainty driven by natural climatic fluctuations has “always been part of water resources planning,” but effects of climate change exacerbate this uncertainty (3). 

Policymaking: The relationship between climate change and policymaking is changing, as rates of change “outpace the regulatory changes needed to cope with them” (3). These changes “will continue, challenging planning and policy formulation for adaptation to climate change, and suggesting that durable and realistic long-term perspectives are necessary for robust policy development” (3). 
 

“Natural hydrologic variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning” (3)

Figure 4.18: "The figure shows hydrologic variability in both space and time: (a, b) runoff variability (a surrogate for streamflow variability) across the country between two decades, with the boundary of the Upper Colorado River Basin shown; and streamflow variability across time with (c) estimates of Colorado River flows from historical observations and (d) reconstructed flows from ancient tree rings (blue line), with data from (c) showin in orange. Wedges point to two negotiated policy events. Figure credit: Lynker and University of Colorado Boulder" (3).

“Conflict, competition, and collaboration”: climate change impacts and disputes over resources have been observed in many communities (3). For example, “water disputes in the western US are resolved through litigation,” but as impacts from drought increase, many communities are “struggling to avoid litigation through negotiated settlements and voluntary use reduction” (3). 

Conflicts may exist between human communities but also between human communities and wildlife (9). These conflicts may also be caused by competition for limited resources, but may be caused instead by management actions intended to increase wildlife species’ populations (9). For instance, “translocation of nonhuman species into human communities unwilling to coexist with them” has caused conflict over management actions intended to improve ecosystem conditions (9). 

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities have responded to uncertainty caused by effects of climate change through “watershed management, nature-based solutions, planned relocation, floodplain management, water conservation and reuse, decision science,” and more (3). 

Nature-based solutions, or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10). 
 

“Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change” (10)

Figure 8.18: "Nature-based solutions (NBS) are actions to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems to address societal challenges such as climate change. Examples in the US include (a) oyster restoration; (b) cover cropping; (c) stormwater management; and (d) urban agriculture. These not only help buffer the impacts of climate change, such as through physical barriers or improved local microclimates, but also provide additional benefits like food and habitat provisioning. Figure credit: Rutgers University and NPS. See figure metadata for additional contributors. Photo credits: (a) Linda Walters, NPS; (b) David Bosch, USDA; (c) Alisha Goldstein, EPA; (d) Bob Nichols, USDA" (10).

“Adaptive management iteratively plans, implements, and modifies strategies for managing resources under uncertainty” (8). These strategies require overarching structures and “decisionmaking processes for coordinating efforts across scales, managing uncertainties and conflicts, mobilizing diverse knowledges, and addressing stakeholder interests” (8). 

Decisionmaking frameworks, such as Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD), are being studied to “advance adaptive management processes” (8). 
The “Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework helps identify conditions where ecosystem management can resist a trajectory of change, accept change, or direct change toward desired future conditions” (8). The NC CASC is contributing to an ongoing Cross-Park RAD project with resource managers at the Glacier National Park and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes - learn more here! 
 

“Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems,” (8)

Figure 8.9: "Two examples of adaptive decision frameworks are the Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning cycle (a) and the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework (b). In (a), users are guided through assessment and design considerations to adjust climate-smart management interventions. In (b), the current ecosystem (gray) is affected by either moderate or strong transformational forcing that drives decisions (black dots) to resist (red time periods), accept (yellow time periods), and direct (green time periods) the trajectory of change. (a) Adapted from West et al. 2017, 2018; (b) adapted from Lynch et al. 2022" (8).

Assisting species adaptation, “including increasing conservation efforts, reducing habitat fragmentation, protecting wildlife corridors, and expanding protection activities,” is one way to address effects of climate change on ecosystems and even individual species (9). 
For example, assisted migration of forest species involves “1) assisted population migration within a species range, 2) assisted range expansion adjacent to a species range, and 3) assisted species migration that moves species far outside their range” in order to “promote tree species… expected to survive future climates and disturbance regimes” (6). Other types of adaptive reforestation practices, including where and which species are planted, are being implemented as well (6). However, “private forest owners’ [and other landowners’] actions to adapt to climate change are socially, institutionally, and economically constrained; therefore, policy and market-based incentives have the potential to increase adaptation on private lands” (6). 
Additionally, managing ecosystems for connectivity, which may include reduction of “habitat fragmentation [and] protecting [or creating] wildlife corridors,” can “enhance species climate resilience, particularly for wide-ranging and migratory species. Priorities include connecting climate refugia, areas of high diversity, and current and future habitat types” (9). Increased connectivity can lead to increased biodiversity, which is linked to increased ecosystem resilience (9). 

Updating metrics: data collection methods and existing metrics are often “widely outdated,” requiring extensive updates to make them useful for present-day decisionmaking (3). Furthermore, there are frequent gaps in data in “lightly populated and lower-income areas,” affecting the accuracy and usability of climate models based on these data (3). To address this, initiatives including “expanding direct observational data collection…[and] supporting development and testing of remotely sensed data and models,” such as satellite remote sensing, are being implemented in some communities and agencies (3). 

Increased monitoring of transformations: Similarly to updating metrics, increased monitoring of ecosystem transformations - specifically, “identifying and monitoring species or ecosystem traits that provide early warnings of vulnerability, system-wide decline, or tipping points” - can reduce risks and provide early detection of ecosystem transformations (8). Long-term monitoring networks, including federal- or community- operated networks and community science networks (such as iNaturalist) - in addition to elders and Indigenous knowledge holders - “collect observations across large areas and have helped detect altered species distributions, abundances, and phenologies (seasonal patterns)” (8). 
 

“Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions” (8)

Figure 8.8: "Federally operated networks (NPS I&M, NERR) and other long-term networks (LTER, LTAR, NEON, MBON, AmeriFlux) provide consistent and permanent observations at limited sites, whereas volunteer networks (USA-NPN, Indigenous Sentinels) offer more oportunistic observations across a wider landscape. Together, these networks provide critical data for understanding species and ecosystem changes, although gaps in coverage remain. Figure credit: Lynker and USGS" (8).

Interest in, and publication of, reports such as “vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for federal, state, private, and Tribal lands” has increased significantly to help communities prepare for impacts of climate change (6). Often, social factors are considered in these reports; “assessments can consider ecological changes and altered ecosystem services” as climate change affects ecosystems (6). For example, incorporating consideration of local industries, adaptation capacity of local communities, and environmental justice provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystems (6). 

Policies: Large-scale, actionable environmental policy is difficult due to the variety of landowners, governments, and rights holders responsible for decisionmaking. However, many communities pursue policy to address environmental and social concerns. For example, potential policies regarding forests “include regulations that require adaptation actions; subsidies that reduce private costs of actions or account for public benefits of private actions; and taxes that increase the private costs of inaction or of actions that make forests less resilient to climate change” (6). 

Proactive food security projects are increasing communities’ resilience to climate change-related food insecurity. For instance, the “Osage Nation’s community orchard - informed by Tribal Ecological Knowledge, designed with community health in mind, and providing nutritious fruits, nuts, and berries for community members” - is one example of community-led action to protect health and ensure food availability (13). 

Participatory approaches to enhancing climate resilience are being employed by many communities to “ensure that efforts are equitable and meet community needs” (14). For example, Greensburg, Kansas “utilized multiple rounds of public meetings to engage citizens in planning a sustainable, climate-smart rebuilding process” after the town was destroyed by a natural disaster (14). 

Indigenous-led “climate and energy [initiatives] include implementation of climate adaptation strategies, climate and energy planning and policy initiatives, youth movements on climate justice, artistic mixed-media messaging about Indigenous experiences with and knowledges of climate change, and movements aimed to connect diverse Indigenous Peoples with one another spanning local to international scales” (18). These initiatives include Tribal-led energy projects, creation of climate and hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation planning training (18). There are many examples of Indigenous communities leading these efforts, such as the Karuk Tribe’s work “to ensure that the State of California has permitting requirements for vegetation management to reduce fire hazards through prescribed burns that have cultural value” and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington’s work to build “clam gardens as a climate adaptation strategy to combat sea level rise and ocean acidification and to bolster food security” (18). Equitable and effective climate solutions will support Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous-led initiatives while centering Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 

The Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) may implement a demand-management program in some NGP states that would compensate users for voluntarily reducing water consumption (20). The excess water would be "stored in federal reservoirs and released [elsewhere] when needed" (20).

Sources

Kansas - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, Kansas is part of the Southern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Southern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

Nebraska - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, Nebraska is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
	KM7.3: Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems	Climate change creates challenges for natural resource managers charged with preserving the function, health, and productivity of forest ecosystems.		High
		Forest landowners, managers, and policymakers working at local, state, Tribal, and federal levels are preparing for climate change through the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.		Medium
		Proactive adaptation of management strategies that create, maintain, and restore resilient forest ecosystems are critical to maintaining equitable provisioning of ecosystem services.		Medium
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.2: Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss are Accelerating	The interaction of climate change with other stressors is causing biodiversity loss, changes in species distributions and life cycles, and increasing impacts from invasive species and diseases, all of which have economic and social consequences.	Very Likely	High
		Future responses of species and populations will depend on the magnitude and timing of changes, coupled with the differential sensitivity of organisms; species that cannot easily relocate or are highly temperature sensitive may face heightened extinction risks.	Very Likely	High
		Identification of risks (e.g., extreme events) will help prioritize species and locations for protection and improve options for management.	Very Likely	High
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch11: Agriculture	KM11.1 Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape	Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices...		Very High
		...which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions...	Likely	Medium
		...and improve agricultural resilience to climate change.		High
	KM11.2 Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways	Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society.	Likely	Medium
		Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers...		High
		...and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging.		High
	KM11.3 Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities	Rural communities steward much of the Nation's land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services.		High
		These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation.	Likely	Medium
		Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods.		High
Ch16: Indigenous Peoples	KM16.1: Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty	Climate change continues to cause negative effects on critical aspects of Indigenous Peoples' well-being, including their livelihoods, health, nutrition, and cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories.		Very High
		Indigenous Peoples are responding in diverse ways, including through energy sovereignty.		Very High
	KM16.2: Self-Determination is Key to Indigenous Peoples' Resilience to Climate Change	By exercising their right to self-determination, Indigenous Peoples can respond to climate change in ways that meet the needs and aspirations of their communities.		Very High
		However, their ability to exercise this right is often undermined by institutions and policies shaped by the impacts of settler colonialism.		Very High
		Expanded support from federal and state governments has the potential to uphold Indigenous rights to self-determination for guiding climate resilience.		Very High
	KM16.3: Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response	Indigenous Peoples lead numerous actions that respond to climate change.		High
		Indigenous-led organizations, initiatives, and movements have demonstrated diverse strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation that are guided by Indigenous Knowledges and values and by the pursuit of Indigenous rights.		High
Ch25: Northern Great Plains	KM25.2: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Key Events	Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents…	Virtually Certain	High
		...as well as the ecology of the region.	Very Likely	Medium
		As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend.	Very Likely	Medium
	KM25.3: Resource- and Land-Based Livelihoods Are At Risk	The Northern Great Plains region is heavily reliant on agriculture and resource-based economies, placing livelihoods at risk from the impacts of climate change and related policy. Agriculture and recreation will see some positive effects but primarily negative effects related to changing temperature and precipitation regimes.	Likely	Medium
		Energy-sector livelihoods will be affected as emissions-reductions policies drive shifts away from fossil fuel sources.	Likely	High
		Climate change is expected to test the adaptive resilience of the region’s residents, in particular rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations.	Likely	Medium
	KM25.4: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions	Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others.		Very High
		Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action.		High
	KM25.5: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform	Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships.		Medium
		Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans.		High
		Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems.		Medium

Summary

Compounding effects of climate and human systems cause property and economic damage: Compound effects, or interactions among disturbances or disasters, often “amplify the effects of individual disturbances on ecosystem services,” human systems, and the economy (5). For instance, “climate change-driven changes in precipitation amount and duration, snowpack/ snowmelt, and soil moisture have combined with land-cover change and increasing property values to increase overall economic damages from floods” (2). Specifically, “drought and related heatwaves in the US caused $334.8 billion in damages,” including costs related to shortages in water supplies and power generation as well as reduction in agricultural production and other regular industrial activities (2). 

“A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation” (2)

Impacts to infrastructure and industry: At large scales, flooding of large river and lake systems disrupts infrastructure and industries, including “rail, roadway, and river transportation; agricultural production; commodity deliveries; and industrial production” (2). Across the US, infrastructure - including drinking water delivery infrastructure - is “aging and deteriorating, increasing the risks of contamination and delivery of unpotable water” (2). For instance, “more than 1,000 community water systems… are already providing poor-quality water and are not prepared to cope with climate-change driven flooding, drought, and waterborne diseases” (2). 

Land-based industries

Forestry: While exact impacts are uncertain due to disturbances, such as droughts, fires, insects, and diseases, climate change will impact forest growth and therefore wood and paper markets (5). Resulting “forest management actions taken in response to climate change” will also affect the forestry industry and associated ecosystem services of forests, such as carbon storage (5). 

Recreation: Climate change is decreasing certain recreational activities and increasing others; “for example, warming and reduced snowpack have had negative impacts on winter sports and positive effects on warm-weather activities, with mixed effects on water-based activities” (5). Montana, for example, “lost approximately 800,000 visitors and $289 million (in 2022 dollars) of tourism- and recreation-related income due to drought” (21). 

Agriculture: Effects of climate change have disrupted, and will continue to disrupt, all aspects of agriculture. These effects include “decreased productivity of crop species due to increased pest infestations” and limited water availability (10). Due to the current and projected effects of climate change, adaptation of “agricultural practices, including crop selection, use of equipment, and management approaches” will be required (12). For more information, see NCA5 Tool outputs for your location + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

Energy production: The Northern Great Plains has a much larger share of residents employed in fossil fuel extraction than in the rest of the US, with approximately “1.8% of all jobs” relating to fossil fuels (21). Due to changes in “power generation, transmission, and consumption, as well as shifts in demands for particular types of energy sources,” people in energy-related jobs will experience shifts in demand from both in and outside of the Northern Great Plains (21). In addition, “climate change, especially climate extremes, may also stress energy infrastructure (e.g. rail, pipelines, distribution lines, [etc.])” (21). 

“All dimensions of food security - availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability - are expected to be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average climatic conditions, as well as increases in climate variability and the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climate extremes” (13). This includes disruption of the food supply chain, including “production, storage, processing, distribution, retail, and consumption,” which will have “local and global impacts… on food security” (13). Localized impacts of climate change on food security will be determined by communities’ resilience to a variety of factors, including dependence on “locally grown versus imported foods and how systems respond to changes in climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic factors” (13, 14). 

“Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems” (13)

Ecosystem services are being impacted by climate change. 

Due to climate change, the ranges and abundances of “some plants and fungi used for food, medicine, and other purposes” have been altered (5). 

Furthermore, “climate change affects heritage values, cultural identity, and spiritual connections associated with forests” (5). 

“Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual” (10)

Water availability for both human and agricultural uses has, and will continue to, be reduced due to climatic changes in temperature and precipitation (10). 

Invasive species are experiencing range shifts due to climate change, which can have either positive or negative effects on ecosystem services, depending on the species (9). Ranges of many invasive species are expected to expand, as “some invasive species are more successful than natives… because they better tolerate or more rapidly adapt to changing conditions. Yet not all invasive species are favored by climate change; many invasive plants and vertebrates may experience decreased ranges while the ranges of many invasive invertebrates and pathogens are expected to increase” (9). 
While spruce and mountain pine beetles are native - not invasive - species in the Northern Great Plains, outbreaks have become more frequent due to climate change (4). Historically, these species’ populations have been kept in check by cold winters that reduce their population for the next year (4). However, as the climate changes and winters become more warm, it is no longer cold enough to keep beetle populations from increasing to unusual levels (4). In addition, increases in drought have stressed forest ecosystems, making trees more susceptible to colonization from beetles (4). Together, these factors are responsible for the large-scale beetle outbreaks observed in the Northern Great Plains, and have impacted forestry practices and industries (4). 

“Diminished benefits from ecosystem services can also occur based on other factors… [such as] discriminatory planning practices, housing segregation, and racism [that] have created inequitable distributions of services, leading to communities of color experiencing reduced access to benefits like improved air quality or heat reduction” (10). Interactions between human and environmental impacts on ecosystem services “highlight[s] the need for clear management priorities and recognition of diverse values” (10). 

“Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide” (7)

“Human well-being is dependent on natural and managed ecosystems, which provide crucial functions and resources for nearly everything we eat, make, and do”; therefore, human health is strongly tied to ecosystem health (7). 

Increasing wildfires, and therefore increasing levels of wildfire smoke, “are increasing respiratory and cardiovascular-associated hospitalizations and out-of-hospital cases of cardiac arrest” (5). 

“Disease threats to wildlife, plants, and humans have emerged as a significant climate change risk [as] climate change promotes range expansions and population growth of disease-spreading (vector) species, increased host susceptibility via stress, and enhanced pathogen transmission, with major economic consequences” (9). Climate-impacted disease creates risks in both humans and wildlife (9). For instance, increases in human West Nile virus cases due to increased mosquito populations can be attributed to temperature and precipitation changes caused by climate change, while the fungal white-nose syndrome causing widespread bat mortality can also be affected by climatic changes (9, Table 8.1). 

Productivity and safety of outdoor workers, including farmworkers, are being affected by “higher temperature and humidity” resulting in greater rates of “heat-related stress and death” (13). As a result, the “number of unsafe working days is projected to double by midcentury” (13). 

Mental and spiritual health are also affected by climate change; this is “especially relevant in the Northern Great Plains, where three states are among the top 10 in highest suicide rates per capita in the Nation. Suicide rates are particularly high in rural and Indigenous populations,” due to both remoteness from healthcare services and from “climate anxiety” and “solastalgia, the distress specifically caused by environmental change while still in a home environment” (20). 

Disproportionate impacts: “Climate change creates unequal burdens on people and communities,” and “relationships between humans and ecosystems, such as the kinship values that many Black, Indigenous, and Tribal communities experience with regard to nature, are also endangered by [climate] change” (2, 7). Disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities include: 

“Increased exposure to water-related hazards” by communities living along large bodies of water, people working in agriculture or fisheries, and Tribal and Indigenous communities who are often “displace[d] from lands with cultural significance” (2). Additionally, “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas are at greatest risk” of exposure to flooding risks and damages as well as “exposure to pathogens and pollutants from climate change-driven impacts to water quality” (2). 

“Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents” (2)

Tribal and Indigenous communities’ “health, economic vitality, education, environmental quality, governance, and cultural continuance” are negatively impacted by climate change (15). While exacerbated by climate change, these challenges are rooted in historical injustice (15). Tribal and “Indigenous initiatives addressing climate and energy are often organized as movements for protecting and advancing Indigenous rights… to self-determination regarding climate change responses in their territories - rights that are critical to Indigenous efforts to choose the best pathways for supporting health, economic vitality, educational institutions, environmental quality, governance, cultural continuance, and spiritual traditions” (15). 

“Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change” (15)

Management and planning: Uncertainty driven by natural climatic fluctuations has “always been part of water resources planning,” but effects of climate change exacerbate this uncertainty (3). 

Policymaking: The relationship between climate change and policymaking is changing, as rates of change “outpace the regulatory changes needed to cope with them” (3). These changes “will continue, challenging planning and policy formulation for adaptation to climate change, and suggesting that durable and realistic long-term perspectives are necessary for robust policy development” (3). 

“Natural hydrologic variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning” (3)

“Conflict, competition, and collaboration”: climate change impacts and disputes over resources have been observed in many communities (3). For example, “water disputes in the western US are resolved through litigation,” but as impacts from drought increase, many communities are “struggling to avoid litigation through negotiated settlements and voluntary use reduction” (3). 

Across the Northern Great Plains, communities “experience complex tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other factors, all exacerbated by the impacts of climate change… These tensions culminate in difficult decisions” about resource management, community priorities, and “balanc[ing] trade-offs between consumptive and ecological uses” (22). These “cultural, structural, and institutional barriers… prevent effective action in the Northern Great Plains region;” for example, the region’s reliance on fossil fuels creates “resistance to energy transition and economic diversification,” the region receives less research funding than other regions in the US, and there are “varying perceptions of climate change” within the region. These are a few of many barriers to adaptation and action; however, opportunities are available where communities can overcome these tensions (22). Researchers, “communities, economic sectors, and natural resource practitioners in this region are advancing adaptation solutions,” including restoring native perennial land cover, responding to increases in river flooding, and adapting scenario-based planning (see “How are communities addressing these changes?” below) (23). 

Conflicts may exist between human communities but also between human communities and wildlife (9). These conflicts may also be caused by competition for limited resources, but may be caused instead by management actions intended to increase wildlife species’ populations (9). For instance, “translocation of nonhuman species into human communities unwilling to coexist with them” has caused conflict over management actions intended to improve ecosystem conditions (9). 

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities have responded to uncertainty caused by effects of climate change through “watershed management, nature-based solutions, planned relocation, floodplain management, water conservation and reuse, decision science,” and more (3). 

Nature-based solutions, or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10). 

“Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change” (10)

“Adaptive management iteratively plans, implements, and modifies strategies for managing resources under uncertainty” (8). These strategies require overarching structures and “decisionmaking processes for coordinating efforts across scales, managing uncertainties and conflicts, mobilizing diverse knowledges, and addressing stakeholder interests” (8). 

Decisionmaking frameworks, such as Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD), are being studied to “advance adaptive management processes” (8). 

The “Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework helps identify conditions where ecosystem management can resist a trajectory of change, accept change, or direct change toward desired future conditions” (8). The NC CASC is contributing to an ongoing Cross-Park RAD project with resource managers at the Glacier National Park and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes - learn more here!

“Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems,” (8)

Assisting species adaptation, “including increasing conservation efforts, reducing habitat fragmentation, protecting wildlife corridors, and expanding protection activities,” is one way to address effects of climate change on ecosystems and even individual species (9).
For example, assisted migration of forest species involves “1) assisted population migration within a species range, 2) assisted range expansion adjacent to a species range, and 3) assisted species migration that moves species far outside their range” in order to “promote tree species… expected to survive future climates and disturbance regimes” (6). Other types of adaptive reforestation practices, including where and which species are planted, are being implemented as well (6). However, “private forest owners’ [and other landowners’] actions to adapt to climate change are socially, institutionally, and economically constrained; therefore, policy and market-based incentives have the potential to increase adaptation on private lands” (6). 
Additionally, managing ecosystems for connectivity, which may include reduction of “habitat fragmentation [and] protecting [or creating] wildlife corridors,” can “enhance species climate resilience, particularly for wide-ranging and migratory species. Priorities include connecting climate refugia, areas of high diversity, and current and future habitat types” (9). Increased connectivity can lead to increased biodiversity, which is linked to increased ecosystem resilience (9). 

Updating metrics: data collection methods and existing metrics are often “widely outdated,” requiring extensive updates to make them useful for present-day decisionmaking (3). Furthermore, there are frequent gaps in data in “lightly populated and lower-income areas,” affecting the accuracy and usability of climate models based on these data (3). To address this, initiatives including “expanding direct observational data collection…[and] supporting development and testing of remotely sensed data and models,” such as satellite remote sensing, are being implemented in some communities and agencies (3). 

Increased monitoring of transformations: Similarly to updating metrics, increased monitoring of ecosystem transformations - specifically, “identifying and monitoring species or ecosystem traits that provide early warnings of vulnerability, system-wide decline, or tipping points” - can reduce risks and provide early detection of ecosystem transformations (8). Long-term monitoring networks, including federal- or community- operated networks and community science networks (such as iNaturalist) - in addition to elders and Indigenous knowledge holders - “collect observations across large areas and have helped detect altered species distributions, abundances, and phenologies (seasonal patterns)” (8). 

“Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions” (8)

Interest in, and publication of, reports such as “vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for federal, state, private, and Tribal lands” has increased significantly to help communities prepare for impacts of climate change (6). Often, social factors are considered in these reports; “assessments can consider ecological changes and altered ecosystem services” as climate change affects ecosystems (6). For example, incorporating consideration of local industries, adaptation capacity of local communities, and environmental justice provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystems (6). 

Policies: Large-scale, actionable environmental policy is difficult due to the variety of landowners, governments, and rights holders responsible for decisionmaking. However, many communities pursue policy to address environmental and social concerns. For example, potential policies regarding forests “include regulations that require adaptation actions; subsidies that reduce private costs of actions or account for public benefits of private actions; and taxes that increase the private costs of inaction or of actions that make forests less resilient to climate change” (6). 

Proactive food security projects are increasing communities’ resilience to climate change-related food insecurity. For instance, the “Osage Nation’s community orchard - informed by Tribal Ecological Knowledge, designed with community health in mind, and providing nutritious fruits, nuts, and berries for community members” - is one example of community-led action to protect health and ensure food availability (13). 

Participatory approaches to enhancing climate resilience are being employed by many communities to “ensure that efforts are equitable and meet community needs” (14). For example, Greensburg, Kansas “utilized multiple rounds of public meetings to engage citizens in planning a sustainable, climate-smart rebuilding process” after the town was destroyed by a natural disaster (14). 

Indigenous-led “climate and energy [initiatives] include implementation of climate adaptation strategies, climate and energy planning and policy initiatives, youth movements on climate justice, artistic mixed-media messaging about Indigenous experiences with and knowledges of climate change, and movements aimed to connect diverse Indigenous Peoples with one another spanning local to international scales” (18). These initiatives include Tribal-led energy projects, creation of climate and hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation planning training (18). There are many examples of Indigenous communities leading these efforts, such as the Karuk Tribe’s work “to ensure that the State of California has permitting requirements for vegetation management to reduce fire hazards through prescribed burns that have cultural value” and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington’s work to build “clam gardens as a climate adaptation strategy to combat sea level rise and ocean acidification and to bolster food security” (18). Equitable and effective climate solutions will support Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous-led initiatives while centering Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 

Restoration of buffalo to their historical lands, also led by Indigenous Peoples in the Northern Great Plains, is a way to honor their “valuable ecological role” and to “reestablish historic relationships to landscapes [that] are rooted in this region” (19). 

Sources

South Dakota - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, South Dakota is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
	KM7.3: Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems	Climate change creates challenges for natural resource managers charged with preserving the function, health, and productivity of forest ecosystems.		High
		Forest landowners, managers, and policymakers working at local, state, Tribal, and federal levels are preparing for climate change through the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.		Medium
		Proactive adaptation of management strategies that create, maintain, and restore resilient forest ecosystems are critical to maintaining equitable provisioning of ecosystem services.		Medium
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.2: Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss are Accelerating	The interaction of climate change with other stressors is causing biodiversity loss, changes in species distributions and life cycles, and increasing impacts from invasive species and diseases, all of which have economic and social consequences.	Very Likely	High
		Future responses of species and populations will depend on the magnitude and timing of changes, coupled with the differential sensitivity of organisms; species that cannot easily relocate or are highly temperature sensitive may face heightened extinction risks.	Very Likely	High
		Identification of risks (e.g., extreme events) will help prioritize species and locations for protection and improve options for management.	Very Likely	High
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch11: Agriculture	KM11.1 Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape	Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices...		Very High
		...which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions...	Likely	Medium
		...and improve agricultural resilience to climate change.		High
	KM11.2 Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways	Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society.	Likely	Medium
		Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers...		High
		...and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging.		High
	KM11.3 Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities	Rural communities steward much of the Nation's land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services.		High
		These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation.	Likely	Medium
		Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods.		High
Ch16: Indigenous Peoples	KM16.1: Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty	Climate change continues to cause negative effects on critical aspects of Indigenous Peoples' well-being, including their livelihoods, health, nutrition, and cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories.		Very High
		Indigenous Peoples are responding in diverse ways, including through energy sovereignty.		Very High
	KM16.2: Self-Determination is Key to Indigenous Peoples' Resilience to Climate Change	By exercising their right to self-determination, Indigenous Peoples can respond to climate change in ways that meet the needs and aspirations of their communities.		Very High
		However, their ability to exercise this right is often undermined by institutions and policies shaped by the impacts of settler colonialism.		Very High
		Expanded support from federal and state governments has the potential to uphold Indigenous rights to self-determination for guiding climate resilience.		Very High
	KM16.3: Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response	Indigenous Peoples lead numerous actions that respond to climate change.		High
		Indigenous-led organizations, initiatives, and movements have demonstrated diverse strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation that are guided by Indigenous Knowledges and values and by the pursuit of Indigenous rights.		High
Ch25: Northern Great Plains	KM25.2: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Key Events	Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents…	Virtually Certain	High
		...as well as the ecology of the region.	Very Likely	Medium
		As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend.	Very Likely	Medium
	KM25.3: Resource- and Land-Based Livelihoods Are At Risk	The Northern Great Plains region is heavily reliant on agriculture and resource-based economies, placing livelihoods at risk from the impacts of climate change and related policy. Agriculture and recreation will see some positive effects but primarily negative effects related to changing temperature and precipitation regimes.	Likely	Medium
		Energy-sector livelihoods will be affected as emissions-reductions policies drive shifts away from fossil fuel sources.	Likely	High
		Climate change is expected to test the adaptive resilience of the region’s residents, in particular rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations.	Likely	Medium
	KM25.4: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions	Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others.		Very High
		Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action.		High
	KM25.5: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform	Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships.		Medium
		Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans.		High
		Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems.		Medium

Summary

Compounding effects of climate and human systems cause property and economic damage: Compound effects, or interactions among disturbances or disasters, often “amplify the effects of individual disturbances on ecosystem services,” human systems, and the economy (5). For instance, “climate change-driven changes in precipitation amount and duration, snowpack/ snowmelt, and soil moisture have combined with land-cover change and increasing property values to increase overall economic damages from floods” (2). Specifically, “drought and related heatwaves in the US caused $334.8 billion in damages,” including costs related to shortages in water supplies and power generation as well as reduction in agricultural production and other regular industrial activities (2). 

“A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation” (2, Figure 4.12)

Impacts to infrastructure and industry: At large scales, flooding of large river and lake systems disrupts infrastructure and industries, including “rail, roadway, and river transportation; agricultural production; commodity deliveries; and industrial production” (2). Across the US, infrastructure - including drinking water delivery infrastructure - is “aging and deteriorating, increasing the risks of contamination and delivery of unpotable water” (2). For instance, “more than 1,000 community water systems… are already providing poor-quality water and are not prepared to cope with climate-change driven flooding, drought, and waterborne diseases” (2). 

Land-based industries

Forestry: While exact impacts are uncertain due to disturbances, such as droughts, fires, insects, and diseases, climate change will impact forest growth and therefore wood and paper markets (5). Resulting “forest management actions taken in response to climate change” will also affect the forestry industry and associated ecosystem services of forests, such as carbon storage (5). 

Recreation: Climate change is decreasing certain recreational activities and increasing others; “for example, warming and reduced snowpack have had negative impacts on winter sports and positive effects on warm-weather activities, with mixed effects on water-based activities” (5). Montana, for example, “lost approximately 800,000 visitors and $289 million (in 2022 dollars) of tourism- and recreation-related income due to drought” (21). 

Agriculture: Effects of climate change have disrupted, and will continue to disrupt, all aspects of agriculture. These effects include “decreased productivity of crop species due to increased pest infestations” and limited water availability (10). Due to the current and projected effects of climate change, adaptation of “agricultural practices, including crop selection, use of equipment, and management approaches” will be required (12). For more information, see NCA5 Tool outputs for your location + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

Energy production: The Northern Great Plains has a much larger share of residents employed in fossil fuel extraction than in the rest of the US, with approximately “1.8% of all jobs” relating to fossil fuels (21). Due to changes in “power generation, transmission, and consumption, as well as shifts in demands for particular types of energy sources,” people in energy-related jobs will experience shifts in demand from both in and outside of the Northern Great Plains (21). In addition, “climate change, especially climate extremes, may also stress energy infrastructure (e.g. rail, pipelines, distribution lines, [etc.])” (21). 

“All dimensions of food security - availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability - are expected to be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average climatic conditions, as well as increases in climate variability and the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climate extremes” (13). This includes disruption of the food supply chain, including “production, storage, processing, distribution, retail, and consumption,” which will have “local and global impacts… on food security” (13). Localized impacts of climate change on food security will be determined by communities’ resilience to a variety of factors, including dependence on “locally grown versus imported foods and how systems respond to changes in climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic factors” (13, 14). 

“Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems” (13, Figure 11.9).

Ecosystem services are being impacted by climate change. 

Due to climate change, the ranges and abundances of “some plants and fungi used for food, medicine, and other purposes” have been altered (5). 

Furthermore, “climate change affects heritage values, cultural identity, and spiritual connections associated with forests” (5). 

“Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual” (10, Figure 8.17)

Water availability for both human and agricultural uses has, and will continue to, be reduced due to climatic changes in temperature and precipitation (10). 

Invasive species are experiencing range shifts due to climate change, which can have either positive or negative effects on ecosystem services, depending on the species (9). Ranges of many invasive species are expected to expand, as “some invasive species are more successful than natives… because they better tolerate or more rapidly adapt to changing conditions. Yet not all invasive species are favored by climate change; many invasive plants and vertebrates may experience decreased ranges while the ranges of many invasive invertebrates and pathogens are expected to increase” (9). 
While spruce and mountain pine beetles are native - not invasive - species in the Northern Great Plains, outbreaks have become more frequent due to climate change (4). Historically, these species’ populations have been kept in check by cold winters that reduce their population for the next year (4). However, as the climate changes and winters become more warm, it is no longer cold enough to keep beetle populations from increasing to unusual levels (4). In addition, increases in drought have stressed forest ecosystems, making trees more susceptible to colonization from beetles (4). Together, these factors are responsible for the large-scale beetle outbreaks observed in the Northern Great Plains, and have impacted forestry practices and industries (4). 

“Diminished benefits from ecosystem services can also occur based on other factors… [such as] discriminatory planning practices, housing segregation, and racism [that] have created inequitable distributions of services, leading to communities of color experiencing reduced access to benefits like improved air quality or heat reduction” (10). Interactions between human and environmental impacts on ecosystem services “highlight[s] the need for clear management priorities and recognition of diverse values” (10). 

“Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide” (7, Figure 8.1).

“Human well-being is dependent on natural and managed ecosystems, which provide crucial functions and resources for nearly everything we eat, make, and do”; therefore, human health is strongly tied to ecosystem health (7). 

Increasing wildfires, and therefore increasing levels of wildfire smoke, “are increasing respiratory and cardiovascular-associated hospitalizations and out-of-hospital cases of cardiac arrest” (5). 

“Disease threats to wildlife, plants, and humans have emerged as a significant climate change risk [as] climate change promotes range expansions and population growth of disease-spreading (vector) species, increased host susceptibility via stress, and enhanced pathogen transmission, with major economic consequences” (9). Climate-impacted disease creates risks in both humans and wildlife (9). For instance, increases in human West Nile virus cases due to increased mosquito populations can be attributed to temperature and precipitation changes caused by climate change, while the fungal white-nose syndrome causing widespread bat mortality can also be affected by climatic changes (9, Table 8.1). 

Productivity and safety of outdoor workers, including farmworkers, are being affected by “higher temperature and humidity” resulting in greater rates of “heat-related stress and death” (13). As a result, the “number of unsafe working days is projected to double by midcentury” (13). 

Mental and spiritual health are also affected by climate change; this is “especially relevant in the Northern Great Plains, where three states are among the top 10 in highest suicide rates per capita in the Nation. Suicide rates are particularly high in rural and Indigenous populations,” due to both remoteness from healthcare services and from “climate anxiety” and “solastalgia, the distress specifically caused by environmental change while still in a home environment” (20). 

Disproportionate impacts: “Climate change creates unequal burdens on people and communities,” and “relationships between humans and ecosystems, such as the kinship values that many Black, Indigenous, and Tribal communities experience with regard to nature, are also endangered by [climate] change” (2, 7). Disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities include: 

“Increased exposure to water-related hazards” by communities living along large bodies of water, people working in agriculture or fisheries, and Tribal and Indigenous communities who are often “displace[d] from lands with cultural significance” (2). Additionally, “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas are at greatest risk” of exposure to flooding risks and damages as well as “exposure to pathogens and pollutants from climate change-driven impacts to water quality” (2). 

“Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents” (2, Figure 4.14).

Tribal and Indigenous communities’ “health, economic vitality, education, environmental quality, governance, and cultural continuance” are negatively impacted by climate change (15). While exacerbated by climate change, these challenges are rooted in historical injustice (15). Tribal and “Indigenous initiatives addressing climate and energy are often organized as movements for protecting and advancing Indigenous rights… to self-determination regarding climate change responses in their territories - rights that are critical to Indigenous efforts to choose the best pathways for supporting health, economic vitality, educational institutions, environmental quality, governance, cultural continuance, and spiritual traditions” (15). 

“Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change” (15, Figure 16.3).

Management and planning: Uncertainty driven by natural climatic fluctuations has “always been part of water resources planning,” but effects of climate change exacerbate this uncertainty (3). 

Policymaking: The relationship between climate change and policymaking is changing, as rates of change “outpace the regulatory changes needed to cope with them” (3). These changes “will continue, challenging planning and policy formulation for adaptation to climate change, and suggesting that durable and realistic long-term perspectives are necessary for robust policy development” (3). 

“Natural hydrological variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning” (3, Figure 4.18)

“Conflict, competition, and collaboration”: climate change impacts and disputes over resources have been observed in many communities (3). For example, “water disputes in the western US are resolved through litigation,” but as impacts from drought increase, many communities are “struggling to avoid litigation through negotiated settlements and voluntary use reduction” (3). 

Across the Northern Great Plains, communities “experience complex tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other factors, all exacerbated by the impacts of climate change… These tensions culminate in difficult decisions” about resource management, community priorities, and “balanc[ing] trade-offs between consumptive and ecological uses” (22). These “cultural, structural, and institutional barriers… prevent effective action in the Northern Great Plains region;” for example, the region’s reliance on fossil fuels creates “resistance to energy transition and economic diversification,” the region receives less research funding than other regions in the US, and there are “varying perceptions of climate change” within the region. These are a few of many barriers to adaptation and action; however, opportunities are available where communities can overcome these tensions (22). Researchers, “communities, economic sectors, and natural resource practitioners in this region are advancing adaptation solutions,” including restoring native perennial land cover, responding to increases in river flooding, and adapting scenario-based planning (see “How are communities addressing these changes?” below) (23). 

Conflicts may exist between human communities but also between human communities and wildlife (9). These conflicts may also be caused by competition for limited resources, but may be caused instead by management actions intended to increase wildlife species’ populations (9). For instance, “translocation of nonhuman species into human communities unwilling to coexist with them” has caused conflict over management actions intended to improve ecosystem conditions (9). 

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities have responded to uncertainty caused by effects of climate change through “watershed management, nature-based solutions, planned relocation, floodplain management, water conservation and reuse, decision science,” and more (3). 

Nature-based solutions, or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10). 

“Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change” (10, Figure 8.18).

“Adaptive management iteratively plans, implements, and modifies strategies for managing resources under uncertainty” (8). These strategies require overarching structures and “decisionmaking processes for coordinating efforts across scales, managing uncertainties and conflicts, mobilizing diverse knowledges, and addressing stakeholder interests” (8). 

Decisionmaking frameworks, such as Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD), are being studied to “advance adaptive management processes” (8). 

“Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems,” (8, Figure 8.9).

Assisting species adaptation, “including increasing conservation efforts, reducing habitat fragmentation, protecting wildlife corridors, and expanding protection activities,” is one way to address effects of climate change on ecosystems and even individual species (9).

For example, assisted migration of forest species involves “1) assisted population migration within a species range, 2) assisted range expansion adjacent to a species range, and 3) assisted species migration that moves species far outside their range” in order to “promote tree species… expected to survive future climates and disturbance regimes” (6). Other types of adaptive reforestation practices, including where and which species are planted, are being implemented as well (6). However, “private forest owners’ [and other landowners’] actions to adapt to climate change are socially, institutionally, and economically constrained; therefore, policy and market-based incentives have the potential to increase adaptation on private lands” (6).

Additionally, managing ecosystems for connectivity, which may include reduction of “habitat fragmentation [and] protecting [or creating] wildlife corridors,” can “enhance species climate resilience, particularly for wide-ranging and migratory species. Priorities include connecting climate refugia, areas of high diversity, and current and future habitat types” (9). Increased connectivity can lead to increased biodiversity, which is linked to increased ecosystem resilience (9).

Updating metrics: data collection methods and existing metrics are often “widely outdated,” requiring extensive updates to make them useful for present-day decisionmaking (3). Furthermore, there are frequent gaps in data in “lightly populated and lower-income areas,” affecting the accuracy and usability of climate models based on these data (3). To address this, initiatives including “expanding direct observational data collection…[and] supporting development and testing of remotely sensed data and models,” such as satellite remote sensing, are being implemented in some communities and agencies (3). 

Increased monitoring of transformations: Similarly to updating metrics, increased monitoring of ecosystem transformations - specifically, “identifying and monitoring species or ecosystem traits that provide early warnings of vulnerability, system-wide decline, or tipping points” - can reduce risks and provide early detection of ecosystem transformations (8). Long-term monitoring networks, including federal- or community- operated networks and community science networks (such as iNaturalist) - in addition to elders and Indigenous knowledge holders - “collect observations across large areas and have helped detect altered species distributions, abundances, and phenologies (seasonal patterns)” (8). 

“Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions” (8, Figure 8.8).

Interest in, and publication of, reports such as “vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for federal, state, private, and Tribal lands” has increased significantly to help communities prepare for impacts of climate change (6). Often, social factors are considered in these reports; “assessments can consider ecological changes and altered ecosystem services” as climate change affects ecosystems (6). For example, incorporating consideration of local industries, adaptation capacity of local communities, and environmental justice provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystems (6). 

Policies: Large-scale, actionable environmental policy is difficult due to the variety of landowners, governments, and rights holders responsible for decisionmaking. However, many communities pursue policy to address environmental and social concerns. For example, potential policies regarding forests “include regulations that require adaptation actions; subsidies that reduce private costs of actions or account for public benefits of private actions; and taxes that increase the private costs of inaction or of actions that make forests less resilient to climate change” (6). 

Proactive food security projects are increasing communities’ resilience to climate change-related food insecurity. For instance, the “Osage Nation’s community orchard - informed by Tribal Ecological Knowledge, designed with community health in mind, and providing nutritious fruits, nuts, and berries for community members” - is one example of community-led action to protect health and ensure food availability (13). 

Participatory approaches to enhancing climate resilience are being employed by many communities to “ensure that efforts are equitable and meet community needs” (14). For example, Greensburg, Kansas “utilized multiple rounds of public meetings to engage citizens in planning a sustainable, climate-smart rebuilding process” after the town was destroyed by a natural disaster (14). 

Indigenous-led “climate and energy [initiatives] include implementation of climate adaptation strategies, climate and energy planning and policy initiatives, youth movements on climate justice, artistic mixed-media messaging about Indigenous experiences with and knowledges of climate change, and movements aimed to connect diverse Indigenous Peoples with one another spanning local to international scales” (18). These initiatives include Tribal-led energy projects, creation of climate and hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation planning training (18). There are many examples of Indigenous communities leading these efforts, such as the Karuk Tribe’s work “to ensure that the State of California has permitting requirements for vegetation management to reduce fire hazards through prescribed burns that have cultural value” and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington’s work to build “clam gardens as a climate adaptation strategy to combat sea level rise and ocean acidification and to bolster food security” (18). Equitable and effective climate solutions will support Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous-led initiatives while centering Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 

Restoration of buffalo to their historical lands, also led by Indigenous Peoples in the Northern Great Plains, is a way to honor their “valuable ecological role” and to “reestablish historic relationships to landscapes [that] are rooted in this region” (19). 

Sources

North Dakota - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, North Dakota is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
	KM7.3: Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems	Climate change creates challenges for natural resource managers charged with preserving the function, health, and productivity of forest ecosystems.		High
		Forest landowners, managers, and policymakers working at local, state, Tribal, and federal levels are preparing for climate change through the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.		Medium
		Proactive adaptation of management strategies that create, maintain, and restore resilient forest ecosystems are critical to maintaining equitable provisioning of ecosystem services.		Medium
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.2: Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss are Accelerating	The interaction of climate change with other stressors is causing biodiversity loss, changes in species distributions and life cycles, and increasing impacts from invasive species and diseases, all of which have economic and social consequences.	Very Likely	High
		Future responses of species and populations will depend on the magnitude and timing of changes, coupled with the differential sensitivity of organisms; species that cannot easily relocate or are highly temperature sensitive may face heightened extinction risks.	Very Likely	High
		Identification of risks (e.g., extreme events) will help prioritize species and locations for protection and improve options for management.	Very Likely	High
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch11: Agriculture	KM11.1 Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape	Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices...		Very High
		...which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions...	Likely	Medium
		...and improve agricultural resilience to climate change.		High
	KM11.2 Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways	Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society.	Likely	Medium
		Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers...		High
		...and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging.		High
	KM11.3 Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities	Rural communities steward much of the Nation's land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services.		High
		These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation.	Likely	Medium
		Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods.		High
Ch16: Indigenous Peoples	KM16.1: Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty	Climate change continues to cause negative effects on critical aspects of Indigenous Peoples' well-being, including their livelihoods, health, nutrition, and cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories.		Very High
		Indigenous Peoples are responding in diverse ways, including through energy sovereignty.		Very High
	KM16.2: Self-Determination is Key to Indigenous Peoples' Resilience to Climate Change	By exercising their right to self-determination, Indigenous Peoples can respond to climate change in ways that meet the needs and aspirations of their communities.		Very High
		However, their ability to exercise this right is often undermined by institutions and policies shaped by the impacts of settler colonialism.		Very High
		Expanded support from federal and state governments has the potential to uphold Indigenous rights to self-determination for guiding climate resilience.		Very High
	KM16.3: Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response	Indigenous Peoples lead numerous actions that respond to climate change.		High
		Indigenous-led organizations, initiatives, and movements have demonstrated diverse strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation that are guided by Indigenous Knowledges and values and by the pursuit of Indigenous rights.		High
Ch25: Northern Great Plains	KM25.2: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Key Events	Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents…	Virtually Certain	High
		...as well as the ecology of the region.	Very Likely	Medium
		As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend.	Very Likely	Medium
	KM25.3: Resource- and Land-Based Livelihoods Are At Risk	The Northern Great Plains region is heavily reliant on agriculture and resource-based economies, placing livelihoods at risk from the impacts of climate change and related policy. Agriculture and recreation will see some positive effects but primarily negative effects related to changing temperature and precipitation regimes.	Likely	Medium
		Energy-sector livelihoods will be affected as emissions-reductions policies drive shifts away from fossil fuel sources.	Likely	High
		Climate change is expected to test the adaptive resilience of the region’s residents, in particular rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations.	Likely	Medium
	KM25.4: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions	Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others.		Very High
		Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action.		High
	KM25.5: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform	Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships.		Medium
		Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans.		High
		Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems.		Medium

Summary

Compounding effects of climate and human systems cause property and economic damage: Compound effects, or interactions among disturbances or disasters, often “amplify the effects of individual disturbances on ecosystem services,” human systems, and the economy (5). For instance, “climate change-driven changes in precipitation amount and duration, snowpack/ snowmelt, and soil moisture have combined with land-cover change and increasing property values to increase overall economic damages from floods” (2). Specifically, “drought and related heatwaves in the US caused $334.8 billion in damages,” including costs related to shortages in water supplies and power generation as well as reduction in agricultural production and other regular industrial activities (2). 

“A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation” (2, Figure 4.12)

Impacts to infrastructure and industry: At large scales, flooding of large river and lake systems disrupts infrastructure and industries, including “rail, roadway, and river transportation; agricultural production; commodity deliveries; and industrial production” (2). Across the US, infrastructure - including drinking water delivery infrastructure - is “aging and deteriorating, increasing the risks of contamination and delivery of unpotable water” (2). For instance, “more than 1,000 community water systems… are already providing poor-quality water and are not prepared to cope with climate-change driven flooding, drought, and waterborne diseases” (2). 

Land-based industries

Forestry: While exact impacts are uncertain due to disturbances, such as droughts, fires, insects, and diseases, climate change will impact forest growth and therefore wood and paper markets (5). Resulting “forest management actions taken in response to climate change” will also affect the forestry industry and associated ecosystem services of forests, such as carbon storage (5). 

Recreation: Climate change is decreasing certain recreational activities and increasing others; “for example, warming and reduced snowpack have had negative impacts on winter sports and positive effects on warm-weather activities, with mixed effects on water-based activities” (5). Montana, for example, “lost approximately 800,000 visitors and $289 million (in 2022 dollars) of tourism- and recreation-related income due to drought” (21). 

Agriculture: Effects of climate change have disrupted, and will continue to disrupt, all aspects of agriculture. These effects include “decreased productivity of crop species due to increased pest infestations” and limited water availability (10). Due to the current and projected effects of climate change, adaptation of “agricultural practices, including crop selection, use of equipment, and management approaches” will be required (12). For more information, see NCA5 Tool outputs for your location + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

Energy production: The Northern Great Plains has a much larger share of residents employed in fossil fuel extraction than in the rest of the US, with approximately “1.8% of all jobs” relating to fossil fuels (21). Due to changes in “power generation, transmission, and consumption, as well as shifts in demands for particular types of energy sources,” people in energy-related jobs will experience shifts in demand from both in and outside of the Northern Great Plains (21). In addition, “climate change, especially climate extremes, may also stress energy infrastructure (e.g. rail, pipelines, distribution lines, [etc.])” (21). 

“All dimensions of food security - availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability - are expected to be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average climatic conditions, as well as increases in climate variability and the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climate extremes” (13). This includes disruption of the food supply chain, including “production, storage, processing, distribution, retail, and consumption,” which will have “local and global impacts… on food security” (13). Localized impacts of climate change on food security will be determined by communities’ resilience to a variety of factors, including dependence on “locally grown versus imported foods and how systems respond to changes in climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic factors” (13, 14). 

“Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems” (13, Figure 11.9).

Ecosystem services are being impacted by climate change. 

Due to climate change, the ranges and abundances of “some plants and fungi used for food, medicine, and other purposes” have been altered (5). 

Furthermore, “climate change affects heritage values, cultural identity, and spiritual connections associated with forests” (5). 

“Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual” (10, Figure 8.17)

Water availability for both human and agricultural uses has, and will continue to, be reduced due to climatic changes in temperature and precipitation (10). 

Invasive species are experiencing range shifts due to climate change, which can have either positive or negative effects on ecosystem services, depending on the species (9). Ranges of many invasive species are expected to expand, as “some invasive species are more successful than natives… because they better tolerate or more rapidly adapt to changing conditions. Yet not all invasive species are favored by climate change; many invasive plants and vertebrates may experience decreased ranges while the ranges of many invasive invertebrates and pathogens are expected to increase” (9). 
While spruce and mountain pine beetles are native - not invasive - species in the Northern Great Plains, outbreaks have become more frequent due to climate change (4). Historically, these species’ populations have been kept in check by cold winters that reduce their population for the next year (4). However, as the climate changes and winters become more warm, it is no longer cold enough to keep beetle populations from increasing to unusual levels (4). In addition, increases in drought have stressed forest ecosystems, making trees more susceptible to colonization from beetles (4). Together, these factors are responsible for the large-scale beetle outbreaks observed in the Northern Great Plains, and have impacted forestry practices and industries (4). 

“Diminished benefits from ecosystem services can also occur based on other factors… [such as] discriminatory planning practices, housing segregation, and racism [that] have created inequitable distributions of services, leading to communities of color experiencing reduced access to benefits like improved air quality or heat reduction” (10). Interactions between human and environmental impacts on ecosystem services “highlight[s] the need for clear management priorities and recognition of diverse values” (10). 

“Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide” (7, Figure 8.1).

“Human well-being is dependent on natural and managed ecosystems, which provide crucial functions and resources for nearly everything we eat, make, and do”; therefore, human health is strongly tied to ecosystem health (7). 

Increasing wildfires, and therefore increasing levels of wildfire smoke, “are increasing respiratory and cardiovascular-associated hospitalizations and out-of-hospital cases of cardiac arrest” (5). 

“Disease threats to wildlife, plants, and humans have emerged as a significant climate change risk [as] climate change promotes range expansions and population growth of disease-spreading (vector) species, increased host susceptibility via stress, and enhanced pathogen transmission, with major economic consequences” (9). Climate-impacted disease creates risks in both humans and wildlife (9). For instance, increases in human West Nile virus cases due to increased mosquito populations can be attributed to temperature and precipitation changes caused by climate change, while the fungal white-nose syndrome causing widespread bat mortality can also be affected by climatic changes (9, Table 8.1). 

Productivity and safety of outdoor workers, including farmworkers, are being affected by “higher temperature and humidity” resulting in greater rates of “heat-related stress and death” (13). As a result, the “number of unsafe working days is projected to double by midcentury” (13). 

Mental and spiritual health are also affected by climate change; this is “especially relevant in the Northern Great Plains, where three states are among the top 10 in highest suicide rates per capita in the Nation. Suicide rates are particularly high in rural and Indigenous populations,” due to both remoteness from healthcare services and from “climate anxiety” and “solastalgia, the distress specifically caused by environmental change while still in a home environment” (20). 

Disproportionate impacts: “Climate change creates unequal burdens on people and communities,” and “relationships between humans and ecosystems, such as the kinship values that many Black, Indigenous, and Tribal communities experience with regard to nature, are also endangered by [climate] change” (2, 7). Disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities include: 

“Increased exposure to water-related hazards” by communities living along large bodies of water, people working in agriculture or fisheries, and Tribal and Indigenous communities who are often “displace[d] from lands with cultural significance” (2). Additionally, “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas are at greatest risk” of exposure to flooding risks and damages as well as “exposure to pathogens and pollutants from climate change-driven impacts to water quality” (2). 

“Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents” (2, Figure 4.14).

Tribal and Indigenous communities’ “health, economic vitality, education, environmental quality, governance, and cultural continuance” are negatively impacted by climate change (15). While exacerbated by climate change, these challenges are rooted in historical injustice (15). Tribal and “Indigenous initiatives addressing climate and energy are often organized as movements for protecting and advancing Indigenous rights… to self-determination regarding climate change responses in their territories - rights that are critical to Indigenous efforts to choose the best pathways for supporting health, economic vitality, educational institutions, environmental quality, governance, cultural continuance, and spiritual traditions” (15). 

“Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change” (15, Figure 16.3).

Management and planning: Uncertainty driven by natural climatic fluctuations has “always been part of water resources planning,” but effects of climate change exacerbate this uncertainty (3). 

Policymaking: The relationship between climate change and policymaking is changing, as rates of change “outpace the regulatory changes needed to cope with them” (3). These changes “will continue, challenging planning and policy formulation for adaptation to climate change, and suggesting that durable and realistic long-term perspectives are necessary for robust policy development” (3). 

“Natural hydrological variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning” (3, Figure 4.18)

“Conflict, competition, and collaboration”: climate change impacts and disputes over resources have been observed in many communities (3). For example, “water disputes in the western US are resolved through litigation,” but as impacts from drought increase, many communities are “struggling to avoid litigation through negotiated settlements and voluntary use reduction” (3). 

Across the Northern Great Plains, communities “experience complex tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other factors, all exacerbated by the impacts of climate change… These tensions culminate in difficult decisions” about resource management, community priorities, and “balanc[ing] trade-offs between consumptive and ecological uses” (22). These “cultural, structural, and institutional barriers… prevent effective action in the Northern Great Plains region;” for example, the region’s reliance on fossil fuels creates “resistance to energy transition and economic diversification,” the region receives less research funding than other regions in the US, and there are “varying perceptions of climate change” within the region. These are a few of many barriers to adaptation and action; however, opportunities are available where communities can overcome these tensions (22). Researchers, “communities, economic sectors, and natural resource practitioners in this region are advancing adaptation solutions,” including restoring native perennial land cover, responding to increases in river flooding, and adapting scenario-based planning (see “How are communities addressing these changes?” below) (23). 

Conflicts may exist between human communities but also between human communities and wildlife (9). These conflicts may also be caused by competition for limited resources, but may be caused instead by management actions intended to increase wildlife species’ populations (9). For instance, “translocation of nonhuman species into human communities unwilling to coexist with them” has caused conflict over management actions intended to improve ecosystem conditions (9). 

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities have responded to uncertainty caused by effects of climate change through “watershed management, nature-based solutions, planned relocation, floodplain management, water conservation and reuse, decision science,” and more (3). 

Nature-based solutions, or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10). 

“Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change” (10, Figure 8.18).

“Adaptive management iteratively plans, implements, and modifies strategies for managing resources under uncertainty” (8). These strategies require overarching structures and “decisionmaking processes for coordinating efforts across scales, managing uncertainties and conflicts, mobilizing diverse knowledges, and addressing stakeholder interests” (8). 

Decisionmaking frameworks, such as Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD), are being studied to “advance adaptive management processes” (8). 

“Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems,” (8, Figure 8.9).

Assisting species adaptation, “including increasing conservation efforts, reducing habitat fragmentation, protecting wildlife corridors, and expanding protection activities,” is one way to address effects of climate change on ecosystems and even individual species (9).

Updating metrics: data collection methods and existing metrics are often “widely outdated,” requiring extensive updates to make them useful for present-day decisionmaking (3). Furthermore, there are frequent gaps in data in “lightly populated and lower-income areas,” affecting the accuracy and usability of climate models based on these data (3). To address this, initiatives including “expanding direct observational data collection…[and] supporting development and testing of remotely sensed data and models,” such as satellite remote sensing, are being implemented in some communities and agencies (3). 

Increased monitoring of transformations: Similarly to updating metrics, increased monitoring of ecosystem transformations - specifically, “identifying and monitoring species or ecosystem traits that provide early warnings of vulnerability, system-wide decline, or tipping points” - can reduce risks and provide early detection of ecosystem transformations (8). Long-term monitoring networks, including federal- or community- operated networks and community science networks (such as iNaturalist) - in addition to elders and Indigenous knowledge holders - “collect observations across large areas and have helped detect altered species distributions, abundances, and phenologies (seasonal patterns)” (8). 

“Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions” (8, Figure 8.8).

Interest in, and publication of, reports such as “vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for federal, state, private, and Tribal lands” has increased significantly to help communities prepare for impacts of climate change (6). Often, social factors are considered in these reports; “assessments can consider ecological changes and altered ecosystem services” as climate change affects ecosystems (6). For example, incorporating consideration of local industries, adaptation capacity of local communities, and environmental justice provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystems (6). 

Policies: Large-scale, actionable environmental policy is difficult due to the variety of landowners, governments, and rights holders responsible for decisionmaking. However, many communities pursue policy to address environmental and social concerns. For example, potential policies regarding forests “include regulations that require adaptation actions; subsidies that reduce private costs of actions or account for public benefits of private actions; and taxes that increase the private costs of inaction or of actions that make forests less resilient to climate change” (6). 

Proactive food security projects are increasing communities’ resilience to climate change-related food insecurity. For instance, the “Osage Nation’s community orchard - informed by Tribal Ecological Knowledge, designed with community health in mind, and providing nutritious fruits, nuts, and berries for community members” - is one example of community-led action to protect health and ensure food availability (13). 

Participatory approaches to enhancing climate resilience are being employed by many communities to “ensure that efforts are equitable and meet community needs” (14). For example, Greensburg, Kansas “utilized multiple rounds of public meetings to engage citizens in planning a sustainable, climate-smart rebuilding process” after the town was destroyed by a natural disaster (14). 

Indigenous-led “climate and energy [initiatives] include implementation of climate adaptation strategies, climate and energy planning and policy initiatives, youth movements on climate justice, artistic mixed-media messaging about Indigenous experiences with and knowledges of climate change, and movements aimed to connect diverse Indigenous Peoples with one another spanning local to international scales” (18). These initiatives include Tribal-led energy projects, creation of climate and hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation planning training (18). There are many examples of Indigenous communities leading these efforts, such as the Karuk Tribe’s work “to ensure that the State of California has permitting requirements for vegetation management to reduce fire hazards through prescribed burns that have cultural value” and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington’s work to build “clam gardens as a climate adaptation strategy to combat sea level rise and ocean acidification and to bolster food security” (18). Equitable and effective climate solutions will support Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous-led initiatives while centering Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 

Restoration of buffalo to their historical lands, also led by Indigenous Peoples in the Northern Great Plains, is a way to honor their “valuable ecological role” and to “reestablish historic relationships to landscapes [that] are rooted in this region” (19). 

Sources

Montana - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, Montana is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
	KM7.3: Adaptation Actions Are Necessary for Maintaining Resilient Forest Ecosystems	Climate change creates challenges for natural resource managers charged with preserving the function, health, and productivity of forest ecosystems.		High
		Forest landowners, managers, and policymakers working at local, state, Tribal, and federal levels are preparing for climate change through the development and implementation of vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.		Medium
		Proactive adaptation of management strategies that create, maintain, and restore resilient forest ecosystems are critical to maintaining equitable provisioning of ecosystem services.		Medium
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.2: Species Changes and Biodiversity Loss are Accelerating	The interaction of climate change with other stressors is causing biodiversity loss, changes in species distributions and life cycles, and increasing impacts from invasive species and diseases, all of which have economic and social consequences.	Very Likely	High
		Future responses of species and populations will depend on the magnitude and timing of changes, coupled with the differential sensitivity of organisms; species that cannot easily relocate or are highly temperature sensitive may face heightened extinction risks.	Very Likely	High
		Identification of risks (e.g., extreme events) will help prioritize species and locations for protection and improve options for management.	Very Likely	High
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch11: Agriculture	KM11.1 Agricultural Adaptation Increases Resilience in an Evolving Landscape	Growing evidence for positive environmental and economic outcomes of conservation management has led some farmers and ranchers to adopt agroecological practices...		Very High
		...which increases the potential for agricultural producers to limit greenhouse gas emissions...	Likely	Medium
		...and improve agricultural resilience to climate change.		High
	KM11.2 Climate Change Disrupts Our Food Systems in Uneven Ways	Climate change is projected to disrupt food systems in ways that reduce the availability and affordability of nutritious food, with uneven economic impacts across society.	Likely	Medium
		Impacts of climate change on other measures of human well-being are also distributed unevenly, such as worsening heat stress among farmworkers...		High
		...and disruptions to the ability of subsistence-based peoples to access food through hunting, fishing, and foraging.		High
	KM11.3 Rural Communities Face Unique Challenges and Opportunities	Rural communities steward much of the Nation's land and natural resources, which provide food, bioproducts, and ecosystem services.		High
		These crucial roles are at risk as climate change compounds existing stressors such as poverty, unemployment, and depopulation.	Likely	Medium
		Opportunities exist for rural communities to increase their resilience to climate change and protect rural livelihoods.		High
Ch16: Indigenous Peoples	KM16.1: Indigenous Peoples Face Risks to Well-Being and Livelihoods from Climate Change and Barriers to Energy Sovereignty	Climate change continues to cause negative effects on critical aspects of Indigenous Peoples' well-being, including their livelihoods, health, nutrition, and cultural practices, as well as the ecological resilience of their territories.		Very High
		Indigenous Peoples are responding in diverse ways, including through energy sovereignty.		Very High
	KM16.2: Self-Determination is Key to Indigenous Peoples' Resilience to Climate Change	By exercising their right to self-determination, Indigenous Peoples can respond to climate change in ways that meet the needs and aspirations of their communities.		Very High
		However, their ability to exercise this right is often undermined by institutions and policies shaped by the impacts of settler colonialism.		Very High
		Expanded support from federal and state governments has the potential to uphold Indigenous rights to self-determination for guiding climate resilience.		Very High
	KM16.3: Indigenous Leadership Guides Climate Change Response	Indigenous Peoples lead numerous actions that respond to climate change.		High
		Indigenous-led organizations, initiatives, and movements have demonstrated diverse strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation that are guided by Indigenous Knowledges and values and by the pursuit of Indigenous rights.		High
Ch25: Northern Great Plains	KM25.2: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Key Events	Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents…	Virtually Certain	High
		...as well as the ecology of the region.	Very Likely	Medium
		As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend.	Very Likely	Medium
	KM25.3: Resource- and Land-Based Livelihoods Are At Risk	The Northern Great Plains region is heavily reliant on agriculture and resource-based economies, placing livelihoods at risk from the impacts of climate change and related policy. Agriculture and recreation will see some positive effects but primarily negative effects related to changing temperature and precipitation regimes.	Likely	Medium
		Energy-sector livelihoods will be affected as emissions-reductions policies drive shifts away from fossil fuel sources.	Likely	High
		Climate change is expected to test the adaptive resilience of the region’s residents, in particular rural, Indigenous, and low-income immigrant populations.	Likely	Medium
	KM25.4: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions	Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others.		Very High
		Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action.		High
	KM25.5: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform	Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships.		Medium
		Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans.		High
		Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems.		Medium

Summary

Compounding effects of climate and human systems cause property and economic damage: Compound effects, or interactions among disturbances or disasters, often “amplify the effects of individual disturbances on ecosystem services,” human systems, and the economy (5). For instance, “climate change-driven changes in precipitation amount and duration, snowpack/ snowmelt, and soil moisture have combined with land-cover change and increasing property values to increase overall economic damages from floods” (2). Specifically, “drought and related heatwaves in the US caused $334.8 billion in damages,” including costs related to shortages in water supplies and power generation as well as reduction in agricultural production and other regular industrial activities (2). 

“A portion of observed increases in inland flood damages can be attributed to changes in precipitation” (2)

Impacts to infrastructure and industry: At large scales, flooding of large river and lake systems disrupts infrastructure and industries, including “rail, roadway, and river transportation; agricultural production; commodity deliveries; and industrial production” (2). Across the US, infrastructure - including drinking water delivery infrastructure - is “aging and deteriorating, increasing the risks of contamination and delivery of unpotable water” (2). For instance, “more than 1,000 community water systems… are already providing poor-quality water and are not prepared to cope with climate-change driven flooding, drought, and waterborne diseases” (2). 

Land-based industries

Forestry: While exact impacts are uncertain due to disturbances, such as droughts, fires, insects, and diseases, climate change will impact forest growth and therefore wood and paper markets (5). Resulting “forest management actions taken in response to climate change” will also affect the forestry industry and associated ecosystem services of forests, such as carbon storage (5). 

Recreation: Climate change is decreasing certain recreational activities and increasing others; “for example, warming and reduced snowpack have had negative impacts on winter sports and positive effects on warm-weather activities, with mixed effects on water-based activities” (5). Montana, for example, “lost approximately 800,000 visitors and $289 million (in 2022 dollars) of tourism- and recreation-related income due to drought” (21). 

Agriculture: Effects of climate change have disrupted, and will continue to disrupt, all aspects of agriculture. These effects include “decreased productivity of crop species due to increased pest infestations” and limited water availability (10). Due to the current and projected effects of climate change, adaptation of “agricultural practices, including crop selection, use of equipment, and management approaches” will be required (12). For more information, see NCA5 Tool outputs for your location + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

Energy production: The Northern Great Plains has a much larger share of residents employed in fossil fuel extraction than in the rest of the US, with approximately “1.8% of all jobs” relating to fossil fuels (21). Due to changes in “power generation, transmission, and consumption, as well as shifts in demands for particular types of energy sources,” people in energy-related jobs will experience shifts in demand from both in and outside of the Northern Great Plains (21). In addition, “climate change, especially climate extremes, may also stress energy infrastructure (e.g. rail, pipelines, distribution lines, [etc.])” (21). 

“All dimensions of food security - availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability - are expected to be affected by climate change through long-term changes in average climatic conditions, as well as increases in climate variability and the frequency, magnitude, and duration of climate extremes” (13). This includes disruption of the food supply chain, including “production, storage, processing, distribution, retail, and consumption,” which will have “local and global impacts… on food security” (13). Localized impacts of climate change on food security will be determined by communities’ resilience to a variety of factors, including dependence on “locally grown versus imported foods and how systems respond to changes in climate, ecosystems, and socioeconomic factors” (13, 14). 

“Food security is an outcome of the food system, which influences and is influenced by the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems” (13)

Ecosystem services are being impacted by climate change. 

Due to climate change, the ranges and abundances of “some plants and fungi used for food, medicine, and other purposes” have been altered (5). 

Furthermore, “climate change affects heritage values, cultural identity, and spiritual connections associated with forests” (5). 

“Ecosystems provide a broad range of relational benefits, from the material to the spiritual” (10)

Water availability for both human and agricultural uses has, and will continue to, be reduced due to climatic changes in temperature and precipitation (10). 

Invasive species are experiencing range shifts due to climate change, which can have either positive or negative effects on ecosystem services, depending on the species (9). Ranges of many invasive species are expected to expand, as “some invasive species are more successful than natives… because they better tolerate or more rapidly adapt to changing conditions. Yet not all invasive species are favored by climate change; many invasive plants and vertebrates may experience decreased ranges while the ranges of many invasive invertebrates and pathogens are expected to increase” (9). 
While spruce and mountain pine beetles are native - not invasive - species in the Northern Great Plains, outbreaks have become more frequent due to climate change (4). Historically, these species’ populations have been kept in check by cold winters that reduce their population for the next year (4). However, as the climate changes and winters become more warm, it is no longer cold enough to keep beetle populations from increasing to unusual levels (4). In addition, increases in drought have stressed forest ecosystems, making trees more susceptible to colonization from beetles (4). Together, these factors are responsible for the large-scale beetle outbreaks observed in the Northern Great Plains, and have impacted forestry practices and industries (4). 

“Diminished benefits from ecosystem services can also occur based on other factors… [such as] discriminatory planning practices, housing segregation, and racism [that] have created inequitable distributions of services, leading to communities of color experiencing reduced access to benefits like improved air quality or heat reduction” (10). Interactions between human and environmental impacts on ecosystem services “highlight[s] the need for clear management priorities and recognition of diverse values” (10). 
 

“Climate and non-climate stressors together affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide” (7)

“Human well-being is dependent on natural and managed ecosystems, which provide crucial functions and resources for nearly everything we eat, make, and do”; therefore, human health is strongly tied to ecosystem health (7). 

Increasing wildfires, and therefore increasing levels of wildfire smoke, “are increasing respiratory and cardiovascular-associated hospitalizations and out-of-hospital cases of cardiac arrest” (5). 

“Disease threats to wildlife, plants, and humans have emerged as a significant climate change risk [as] climate change promotes range expansions and population growth of disease-spreading (vector) species, increased host susceptibility via stress, and enhanced pathogen transmission, with major economic consequences” (9). Climate-impacted disease creates risks in both humans and wildlife (9). For instance, increases in human West Nile virus cases due to increased mosquito populations can be attributed to temperature and precipitation changes caused by climate change, while the fungal white-nose syndrome causing widespread bat mortality can also be affected by climatic changes (9, Table 8.1). 

Productivity and safety of outdoor workers, including farmworkers, are being affected by “higher temperature and humidity” resulting in greater rates of “heat-related stress and death” (13). As a result, the “number of unsafe working days is projected to double by midcentury” (13). 

Mental and spiritual health are also affected by climate change; this is “especially relevant in the Northern Great Plains, where three states are among the top 10 in highest suicide rates per capita in the Nation. Suicide rates are particularly high in rural and Indigenous populations,” due to both remoteness from healthcare services and from “climate anxiety” and “solastalgia, the distress specifically caused by environmental change while still in a home environment” (20). 

Disproportionate impacts: “Climate change creates unequal burdens on people and communities,” and “relationships between humans and ecosystems, such as the kinship values that many Black, Indigenous, and Tribal communities experience with regard to nature, are also endangered by [climate] change” (2, 7). Disproportionate impacts of climate change on these communities include: 

“Increased exposure to water-related hazards” by communities living along large bodies of water, people working in agriculture or fisheries, and Tribal and Indigenous communities who are often “displace[d] from lands with cultural significance” (2). Additionally, “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas are at greatest risk” of exposure to flooding risks and damages as well as “exposure to pathogens and pollutants from climate change-driven impacts to water quality” (2). 

“Losses due to floods are projected to increase disproportionately in US Census tracts with higher percentages of Black residents” (2)

Tribal and Indigenous communities’ “health, economic vitality, education, environmental quality, governance, and cultural continuance” are negatively impacted by climate change (15). While exacerbated by climate change, these challenges are rooted in historical injustice (15). Tribal and “Indigenous initiatives addressing climate and energy are often organized as movements for protecting and advancing Indigenous rights… to self-determination regarding climate change responses in their territories - rights that are critical to Indigenous efforts to choose the best pathways for supporting health, economic vitality, educational institutions, environmental quality, governance, cultural continuance, and spiritual traditions” (15). 

“Indigenous holistic worldviews offer diverse and complex expressions of climate change” (15)

Management and planning: Uncertainty driven by natural climatic fluctuations has “always been part of water resources planning,” but effects of climate change exacerbate this uncertainty (3). 

Policymaking: The relationship between climate change and policymaking is changing, as rates of change “outpace the regulatory changes needed to cope with them” (3). These changes “will continue, challenging planning and policy formulation for adaptation to climate change, and suggesting that durable and realistic long-term perspectives are necessary for robust policy development” (3). 

“Natural hydrological variability can promote urgency or complacency in long-term planning" (3)

“Conflict, competition, and collaboration”: climate change impacts and disputes over resources have been observed in many communities (3). For example, “water disputes in the western US are resolved through litigation,” but as impacts from drought increase, many communities are “struggling to avoid litigation through negotiated settlements and voluntary use reduction” (3). 

Across the Northern Great Plains, communities “experience complex tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other factors, all exacerbated by the impacts of climate change… These tensions culminate in difficult decisions” about resource management, community priorities, and “balanc[ing] trade-offs between consumptive and ecological uses” (22). These “cultural, structural, and institutional barriers… prevent effective action in the Northern Great Plains region;” for example, the region’s reliance on fossil fuels creates “resistance to energy transition and economic diversification,” the region receives less research funding than other regions in the US, and there are “varying perceptions of climate change” within the region. These are a few of many barriers to adaptation and action; however, opportunities are available where communities can overcome these tensions (22). Researchers, “communities, economic sectors, and natural resource practitioners in this region are advancing adaptation solutions,” including restoring native perennial land cover, responding to increases in river flooding, and adapting scenario-based planning (see “How are communities addressing these changes?” below) (23). 

Conflicts may exist between human communities but also between human communities and wildlife (9). These conflicts may also be caused by competition for limited resources, but may be caused instead by management actions intended to increase wildlife species’ populations (9). For instance, “translocation of nonhuman species into human communities unwilling to coexist with them” has caused conflict over management actions intended to improve ecosystem conditions (9). 

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities have responded to uncertainty caused by effects of climate change through “watershed management, nature-based solutions, planned relocation, floodplain management, water conservation and reuse, decision science,” and more (3). 

Nature-based solutions, or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10). 

“Nature-based solutions buffer the effects of climate change” (10)

“Adaptive management iteratively plans, implements, and modifies strategies for managing resources under uncertainty” (8). These strategies require overarching structures and “decisionmaking processes for coordinating efforts across scales, managing uncertainties and conflicts, mobilizing diverse knowledges, and addressing stakeholder interests” (8). 

Decisionmaking frameworks, such as Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD), are being studied to “advance adaptive management processes” (8). 

“Decision frameworks can help plan for the potential transformation of ecosystems,” (8)

Assisting species adaptation, “including increasing conservation efforts, reducing habitat fragmentation, protecting wildlife corridors, and expanding protection activities,” is one way to address effects of climate change on ecosystems and even individual species (9).
For example, assisted migration of forest species involves “1) assisted population migration within a species range, 2) assisted range expansion adjacent to a species range, and 3) assisted species migration that moves species far outside their range” in order to “promote tree species… expected to survive future climates and disturbance regimes” (6). Other types of adaptive reforestation practices, including where and which species are planted, are being implemented as well (6). However, “private forest owners’ [and other landowners’] actions to adapt to climate change are socially, institutionally, and economically constrained; therefore, policy and market-based incentives have the potential to increase adaptation on private lands” (6). 
Additionally, managing ecosystems for connectivity, which may include reduction of “habitat fragmentation [and] protecting [or creating] wildlife corridors,” can “enhance species climate resilience, particularly for wide-ranging and migratory species. Priorities include connecting climate refugia, areas of high diversity, and current and future habitat types” (9). Increased connectivity can lead to increased biodiversity, which is linked to increased ecosystem resilience (9). 

Updating metrics: data collection methods and existing metrics are often “widely outdated,” requiring extensive updates to make them useful for present-day decisionmaking (3). Furthermore, there are frequent gaps in data in “lightly populated and lower-income areas,” affecting the accuracy and usability of climate models based on these data (3). To address this, initiatives including “expanding direct observational data collection…[and] supporting development and testing of remotely sensed data and models,” such as satellite remote sensing, are being implemented in some communities and agencies (3). 

Increased monitoring of transformations: Similarly to updating metrics, increased monitoring of ecosystem transformations - specifically, “identifying and monitoring species or ecosystem traits that provide early warnings of vulnerability, system-wide decline, or tipping points” - can reduce risks and provide early detection of ecosystem transformations (8). Long-term monitoring networks, including federal- or community- operated networks and community science networks (such as iNaturalist) - in addition to elders and Indigenous knowledge holders - “collect observations across large areas and have helped detect altered species distributions, abundances, and phenologies (seasonal patterns)” (8). 

“Monitoring programs are critically important for observing and projecting trends in resilience, species invasions, range shifts, declines, and extinctions” (8)

Interest in, and publication of, reports such as “vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for federal, state, private, and Tribal lands” has increased significantly to help communities prepare for impacts of climate change (6). Often, social factors are considered in these reports; “assessments can consider ecological changes and altered ecosystem services” as climate change affects ecosystems (6). For example, incorporating consideration of local industries, adaptation capacity of local communities, and environmental justice provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystems (6). 

Policies: Large-scale, actionable environmental policy is difficult due to the variety of landowners, governments, and rights holders responsible for decisionmaking. However, many communities pursue policy to address environmental and social concerns. For example, potential policies regarding forests “include regulations that require adaptation actions; subsidies that reduce private costs of actions or account for public benefits of private actions; and taxes that increase the private costs of inaction or of actions that make forests less resilient to climate change” (6). 

Proactive food security projects are increasing communities’ resilience to climate change-related food insecurity. For instance, the “Osage Nation’s community orchard - informed by Tribal Ecological Knowledge, designed with community health in mind, and providing nutritious fruits, nuts, and berries for community members” - is one example of community-led action to protect health and ensure food availability (13). 

Participatory approaches to enhancing climate resilience are being employed by many communities to “ensure that efforts are equitable and meet community needs” (14). For example, Greensburg, Kansas “utilized multiple rounds of public meetings to engage citizens in planning a sustainable, climate-smart rebuilding process” after the town was destroyed by a natural disaster (14). 

Indigenous-led “climate and energy [initiatives] include implementation of climate adaptation strategies, climate and energy planning and policy initiatives, youth movements on climate justice, artistic mixed-media messaging about Indigenous experiences with and knowledges of climate change, and movements aimed to connect diverse Indigenous Peoples with one another spanning local to international scales” (18). These initiatives include Tribal-led energy projects, creation of climate and hazard mitigation plans, and adaptation planning training (18). There are many examples of Indigenous communities leading these efforts, such as the Karuk Tribe’s work “to ensure that the State of California has permitting requirements for vegetation management to reduce fire hazards through prescribed burns that have cultural value” and the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community of Washington’s work to build “clam gardens as a climate adaptation strategy to combat sea level rise and ocean acidification and to bolster food security” (18). Equitable and effective climate solutions will support Tribal sovereignty and Indigenous-led initiatives while centering Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Ecological Knowledge. 

Restoration of buffalo to their historical lands, also led by Indigenous Peoples in the Northern Great Plains, is a way to honor their “valuable ecological role” and to “reestablish historic relationships to landscapes [that] are rooted in this region” (19). 

Sources

Wyoming - Communities and Management

Interpreting this Table

According to the NCA5, Wyoming is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Communities and Management.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...