While wildfires are a natural part of our ecosystems in the North Central region, climate change is increasing the conditions that promote larger, more frequent, and more intense wildfires (Fifth National Climate Assessment Ch25, 28, & F2). Residents have experienced reduced opportunities for outdoor recreation; degraded air quality that contributes to respiratory illness; and the destruction of homes, infrastructure, and other property. 

Wildfire is a priority management issue for the NC CASC. Since the NC CASC was awarded a second 5-year cooperative agreement with USGS in September 2024, we have led several projects analyzing wildfire trends and management implications in the North Central region. One of the most recent studies, led by former NC CASC Postdoctoral Research Fellow Jilmarie Stephens, examines wildfire activity across the contiguous United States. Relative to 1984-2019, Stephens et al. project 1) a “nationwide increase of 56% in fire occurrence and 59% in area burned in 2020-2050”, and 2) “larger increases in maximum fire size in 2020-2050” (2026).

Stephens*, J., Joseph, M., Bitters, M. E., Iglesias, V., Tuff, T., Mahood, A., Rangwala, I., Wolken, J., O’Connor, C. D., & Balch, J. K. (2026). Fires of unusual size: Future of extreme and emerging wildfire in a warming United States (2020-2060). Fire, 9(5), https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/9/5/208. 

*This work was funded by the NC CASC through Jilmarie Stephens’ Future of Fire Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral Fellowship project.