As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, wildlife across the North Central part of the United States face challenges that extend beyond changes to their habitats. Climate change can also influence the spread and severity of infectious diseases, creating new concerns for species already vulnerable to environmental pressures. For wildlife managers, understanding these connections is becoming increasingly important. Which diseases pose the greatest threats? How might those risks change as the climate warms? And what can conservation agencies do to prepare?

A research team led by Wynne Moss, a biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, worked with Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) to help answer these questions. Supported by the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC), the project brought together climate science, disease ecology, and wildlife management to identify disease threats and inform conservation planning across the state. She shares, “There's a lot of momentum to make wildlife management more climate-adaptive, and disease is one of the main pathways through which climate change actually affects wildlife. The problem is, animal disease research can be very technical, and much of it comes from veterinary and agricultural fields — not wildlife management. So managers are often left without clear guidance on how to actually respond.”

The research was also designed to inform Montana's 2025 State Wildlife Action Plan, a statewide conservation blueprint updated every ten years. These plans identify wildlife and habitats in need of protection and guide conservation priorities and funding decisions. Although wildlife diseases can have substantial ecological consequences, their relationships with climate change have historically received limited attention in State Wildlife Action Plans. By bringing these considerations together, the project offers a more comprehensive picture of the challenges facing Montana's wildlife.

Climate change can affect wildlife diseases in several ways. Warmer temperatures may allow certain pathogens or disease-carrying organisms, such as ticks, to survive in places where they were previously uncommon. Changes in precipitation and seasonal conditions can also influence how wildlife interact with one another and their environments, potentially altering opportunities for disease transmission. But these relationships are rarely straightforward. Some diseases may become more prevalent under future climate conditions, while others may decline or shift geographically. Their impacts also depend on the species affected and the characteristics of individual ecosystems.

To better understand these risks, Moss and her collaborators conducted a scientific assessment of diseases affecting Montana's Species of Greatest Conservation Need, or, wildlife identified as requiring particular attention because of declining populations and limited distributions. The team identified 20 high-priority diseases and reviewed existing scientific literature to evaluate their potential impacts on Montana's imperiled wildlife. They developed a system for ranking each disease threat so that the state could better prioritize resources on diseases most likely to impact wildlife. The assessment considered the relevancy of each disease to the state, how severely it might affect vulnerable species, and how changing climatic conditions could influence future risks. In order to increase the actionability of this information, the team also compiled a list of potential conservation actions that could help wildlife managers respond to each disease threat.

The result is a synthesis of scientific knowledge designed to make complex disease and climate information more accessible and useful for conservation decisions. A central goal of the project is to ensure that the science directly supports wildlife management. By working closely with partners at Montana FWP and the Montana Natural Heritage Program, the researchers developed specific information that can help managers compare risks and identify where conservation attention may be most needed. Kimberly Szcodronski, State Wildlife Action Plan Coordinator for Montana FWP, said, “This project provides a comprehensive synthesis on the potential impacts of disease on Species of Greatest Conservation Need that was lacking in Montana. We strived for Montana’s 2025 State Wildlife Action Plan to be more actionable and appreciated having the expertise of USGS disease researchers to help us identify possible conservation actions that we can take prior to, and during disease outbreaks.”

The approach may also have applications beyond Montana. Other states face similar challenges as they consider how climate change could affect wildlife health, particularly for species already experiencing habitat loss and other environmental pressures. Not only is the information compiled herein applicable to nearby states facing similar disease threats, but the framework for ranking disease threats was designed to be broadly applicable to other agencies wishing to assess the magnitude of threat posed by different wildlife diseases. As Wynne Moss shares, “Wildlife diseases can look scary and seem threatening, especially when we hear about how certain diseases are on the rise, but disease is also a natural part of ecosystems. Our project develops a system for assessing which diseases are most harmful for wildlife (and where management intervention might be needed), and provides managers with a list of concrete actions that they could take to address the impacts of these diseases.”  

As Montana's climate continues to change, understanding how environmental conditions influence wildlife health will be an important part of conservation planning. This NC CASC-supported effort provides a foundation for anticipating disease threats and helping managers make informed decisions to protect vulnerable species in the years ahead.