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Drought, Wildfire, and Climate Change: From Scenarios to Real Life through the Eyes of a Scientist-Land Manager
Presented by: Koren R. Nydick, Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAqf-6spjkjE9c1XO_UYZvDSAFoQQ-JehN0 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Scenarios are a great tool to examine possible climate futures, play out potential consequences, and identify preemptive actions to prepare for and adapt to changes. In 2011 as science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, I led a fire management futures scenario planning exercise and over the next few years incorporated scenarios into resource stewardship planning for giant sequoias and other priority resources. Almost as soon as the scenarios were written, aspects of them began to play out in real-time, and this experience has continued in my role as Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park. As a result, we are learning about climate change in real-time, including how to react as well as prepare for the future. The emerging picture underscores the urgency of actions to adapt to a changing climate, the critical role of other interacting stressors, and the essential need for triage and prioritization. About the speaker: Koren Nydick has been the Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park since 2018, overseeing the park's work on natural and cultural resources, planning and compliance, fire management, and research. Previously, she was an Ecologist and the park's science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California. Before her career in the National Park Service, Koren lived in Colorado for over ten years, including earning a PhD at Colorado State University and working at the Mountain Studies Institute where she coordinated its first climate change workshop in 2006.
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Presented by: Koren R. Nydick, Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAqf-6spjkjE9c1XO_UYZvDSAFoQQ-JehN0 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Scenarios are a great tool to examine possible climate futures, play out potential consequences, and identify preemptive actions to prepare for and adapt to changes. In 2011 as science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, I led a fire management futures scenario planning exercise and over the next few years incorporated scenarios into resource stewardship planning for giant sequoias and other priority resources. Almost as soon as the scenarios were written, aspects of them began to play out in real-time, and this experience has continued in my role as Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park. As a result, we are learning about climate change in real-time, including how to react as well as prepare for the future. The emerging picture underscores the urgency of actions to adapt to a changing climate, the critical role of other interacting stressors, and the essential need for triage and prioritization. About the speaker: Koren Nydick has been the Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park since 2018, overseeing the park's work on natural and cultural resources, planning and compliance, fire management, and research. Previously, she was an Ecologist and the park's science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California. Before her career in the National Park Service, Koren lived in Colorado for over ten years, including earning a PhD at Colorado State University and working at the Mountain Studies Institute where she coordinated its first climate change workshop in 2006.
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Conceptual Models for Integration of Tribal Culture with Tribal Wildlife Management
Anthony Ciocco, NC CASC’s BIA Pathways Program Intern, presented the webinar, “Conceptual Models for Integration of Tribal Culture with Tribal Wildlife Management” in January 2021. He discussed his forthcoming presentation with proposed models for Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) integration into Fish and Wildlife Management with the Navajo Nation as an example.
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Anthony Ciocco, NC CASC’s BIA Pathways Program Intern, presented the webinar, “Conceptual Models for Integration of Tribal Culture with Tribal Wildlife Management” in January 2021. He discussed his forthcoming presentation with proposed models for Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) integration into Fish and Wildlife Management with the Navajo Nation as an example.
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Fiscal Year 2022 NC CASC Funding Opportunity Information Session
Fiscal Year 2022 NC CASC Funding Opportunity The NC CASC invites Statements of Interest (SOI) from eligible applicants for projects to be initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022. Proposed projects should address high-priority natural or cultural resource management issues that can benefit from climate-informed planning and adaptation management and pertain to priority research topics for the North Central Region.
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Fiscal Year 2022 NC CASC Funding Opportunity The NC CASC invites Statements of Interest (SOI) from eligible applicants for projects to be initiated in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022. Proposed projects should address high-priority natural or cultural resource management issues that can benefit from climate-informed planning and adaptation management and pertain to priority research topics for the North Central Region.
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Managing Post-fire Vegetation Under Climate Change
NC CASC consortium partners, Phil Higuera and Kim Davis, University of Montana, held a workshop, "Managing Post-fire Vegetation Under Climate Change" on February 3-4, 2021 for land managers in the North Central region. Workshop goals included: 1. Share the state of knowledge on vulnerability to fire-catalyzed vegetation change and climate impacts on post-fire vegetation 2. Share tools relevant to managing post-fire landscapes and solicit feedback from participants 3. Identify knowledge gaps and additional information that would help managers make decisions regarding post-fire vegetation management. Click on the buttons below to view the video and slide presentations.
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NC CASC consortium partners, Phil Higuera and Kim Davis, University of Montana, held a workshop, "Managing Post-fire Vegetation Under Climate Change" on February 3-4, 2021 for land managers in the North Central region. Workshop goals included: 1. Share the state of knowledge on vulnerability to fire-catalyzed vegetation change and climate impacts on post-fire vegetation 2. Share tools relevant to managing post-fire landscapes and solicit feedback from participants 3. Identify knowledge gaps and additional information that would help managers make decisions regarding post-fire vegetation management. Click on the buttons below to view the video and slide presentations.
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Our Changing Fire Regimes
NC CASC Webinar Series: Our Changing Fire Regimes Presented by: Jennifer Balch, NC CASC University Director, University of Colorado-Boulder Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAsc-2qrTktGNfU0IFzgBhh-dLJwBzqlT47 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with information on how to join the meeting. Abstract: There are three ingredients needed for fire: fuel to burn, hot & dry conditions, and an ignition source. People are changing all three. The number of wildfires and the area burned has increased over the past several decades, in western U.S. forests by 1500%. Last year was one of the most expensive wildfire seasons ever in the U.S., costing over $16B. We need to learn to live with fire, again. But how? Ultimately, we need to burn better and build better. About the Speaker: Dr. Jennifer Balch is University Director of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and Director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado-Boulder. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography. Dr. Balch’s research aims to understand the patterns and processes that underlie disturbance and ecosystem recovery, particularly how people are shifting fire regimes and the consequences. Her work spans from temperate regions to the tropics exploring how the major ingredients to fire are changing: climate, fuels, and ignitions. She has conducted research in the field of fire ecology for nearly twenty years, and has lit a few experimental burns to understand the consequences of altered fire regimes.
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NC CASC Webinar Series: Our Changing Fire Regimes Presented by: Jennifer Balch, NC CASC University Director, University of Colorado-Boulder Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAsc-2qrTktGNfU0IFzgBhh-dLJwBzqlT47 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with information on how to join the meeting. Abstract: There are three ingredients needed for fire: fuel to burn, hot & dry conditions, and an ignition source. People are changing all three. The number of wildfires and the area burned has increased over the past several decades, in western U.S. forests by 1500%. Last year was one of the most expensive wildfire seasons ever in the U.S., costing over $16B. We need to learn to live with fire, again. But how? Ultimately, we need to burn better and build better. About the Speaker: Dr. Jennifer Balch is University Director of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and Director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado-Boulder. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography. Dr. Balch’s research aims to understand the patterns and processes that underlie disturbance and ecosystem recovery, particularly how people are shifting fire regimes and the consequences. Her work spans from temperate regions to the tropics exploring how the major ingredients to fire are changing: climate, fuels, and ignitions. She has conducted research in the field of fire ecology for nearly twenty years, and has lit a few experimental burns to understand the consequences of altered fire regimes.
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Demographic uncertainty and disease risk drive climate-informed mountain goat management
Date: Thursday, April 8, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Justin Gude, Wildlife Research & Technical Services Bureau Chief, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYsc-GgqjooEtO1BVH4MgBmHjTjJaIA75B7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Concerns about mountain goats have arisen in many areas in recent years. Climate change may negatively affect this alpine ungulate, and recent evidence indicates that mountain goats harbor respiratory pathogens associated with pneumonia epidemics in bighorn sheep. Mountain goat demographic and population data are difficult to collect and sparsely available, exacerbating these concerns. We used a structured decision making process to address these issues and uncertainties, building from a successful track record of using this approach to make management program decisions in Montana, USA. Our analysis predicted that translocations to establish new mountain goat populations would result in more area occupied by mountain goats at mid-century, regardless of the effects of climate change. We found that various management actions may improve population trends, although this was associated with considerable uncertainty. Value of information analyses revealed that more information about population dynamics, the presence of pneumonia-associated pathogens, and the consequences of mixing microbial communities during translocations will affect choices among alternative management actions. Optimal management choices also varied by individual risk tolerance for disease transmission, because translocations are expected to increase disease risks for mountain goats and sympatric bighorn sheep. We recommend that managers determine the tolerance for disease risks associated with translocations that they and constituents are willing to accept. From this, an adaptive management program can be constructed wherein a portfolio of management actions are chosen based on risk tolerance in each population, combined with the amount that uncertainty is reduced when paired with monitoring, to improve mountain goat conservation efforts. About the speaker: Justin Gude has been the Wildlife Research & Technical Services (RTS) Bureau Chief for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) since 2008. The RTS Bureau consists of wildlife research, health, biometrics, and survey programs, and their work covers a variety of taxa ranging in size from songbirds and bats to moose, in all corners of the state. Justin is responsible for overseeing the work of the RTS Bureau as well as ensuring integration of the wildlife research and management programs at FWP, so he is often involved in facilitating working groups such as that described in this presentation. He completed the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Decision Analysis Certification Program and has been involved in many structured decision-making processes, and he also is on the NC CASC- USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub Joint Stakeholder Committee.
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Date: Thursday, April 8, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Justin Gude, Wildlife Research & Technical Services Bureau Chief, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYsc-GgqjooEtO1BVH4MgBmHjTjJaIA75B7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Concerns about mountain goats have arisen in many areas in recent years. Climate change may negatively affect this alpine ungulate, and recent evidence indicates that mountain goats harbor respiratory pathogens associated with pneumonia epidemics in bighorn sheep. Mountain goat demographic and population data are difficult to collect and sparsely available, exacerbating these concerns. We used a structured decision making process to address these issues and uncertainties, building from a successful track record of using this approach to make management program decisions in Montana, USA. Our analysis predicted that translocations to establish new mountain goat populations would result in more area occupied by mountain goats at mid-century, regardless of the effects of climate change. We found that various management actions may improve population trends, although this was associated with considerable uncertainty. Value of information analyses revealed that more information about population dynamics, the presence of pneumonia-associated pathogens, and the consequences of mixing microbial communities during translocations will affect choices among alternative management actions. Optimal management choices also varied by individual risk tolerance for disease transmission, because translocations are expected to increase disease risks for mountain goats and sympatric bighorn sheep. We recommend that managers determine the tolerance for disease risks associated with translocations that they and constituents are willing to accept. From this, an adaptive management program can be constructed wherein a portfolio of management actions are chosen based on risk tolerance in each population, combined with the amount that uncertainty is reduced when paired with monitoring, to improve mountain goat conservation efforts. About the speaker: Justin Gude has been the Wildlife Research & Technical Services (RTS) Bureau Chief for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) since 2008. The RTS Bureau consists of wildlife research, health, biometrics, and survey programs, and their work covers a variety of taxa ranging in size from songbirds and bats to moose, in all corners of the state. Justin is responsible for overseeing the work of the RTS Bureau as well as ensuring integration of the wildlife research and management programs at FWP, so he is often involved in facilitating working groups such as that described in this presentation. He completed the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Decision Analysis Certification Program and has been involved in many structured decision-making processes, and he also is on the NC CASC- USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub Joint Stakeholder Committee.
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Building Tribal Community Resilience: The Role of Nonprofits
Stefan Tangen and Dr. Valerie A. Small, the National Program Director at Trees, Water, and People, gave the webinar presentation, “Building Tribal Community Resilience: The Role of Nonprofits”. They discussed food sovereignty, building relationships with native communities, and the ways federal partners can support tribal resilience building.
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Stefan Tangen and Dr. Valerie A. Small, the National Program Director at Trees, Water, and People, gave the webinar presentation, “Building Tribal Community Resilience: The Role of Nonprofits”. They discussed food sovereignty, building relationships with native communities, and the ways federal partners can support tribal resilience building.
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Grass-Cast: a grassland productivity forecast to inform rangeland management decisions in the Great Plains & Southwest
Date: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Dannele Peck, Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpdO-srD4tGNTKSg19pPufOYPPz0hT7N-T After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The Grassland Productivity Forecast or “Grass-Cast” uses over 30 years of historical data on weather and vegetation growth—combined with satellite NDVI data and seasonal precipitation scenarios—to predict if rangelands in individual ~6 mile x 6 mile areas are likely to produce above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal amounts of vegetation. Grass-Cast can help public and private rangeland managers throughout the Great Plains and Southwest adaptively manage lands by providing early warning of drought-induced vegetation shortages. It was first released to the public in 2018 for the Northern Great Plains, then expanded to the Southern Great Plains in 2019, and most recently to the Southwest states of New Mexico and Arizona in 2020. Originally developed to inform rangeland livestock management decisions, Grass-Cast can also be relevant for management and modeling of wildlife populations that depend on grassland habitat. As a member of the Grass-Cast science and outreach team, Dr. Peck looks forward to the unique opportunity this webinar provides to share Grass-Cast with a ecosystems and wildlife-oriented audience—to discover, together, its potential applications beyond livestock. About the speaker: Dr. Dannele Peck is Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub, based out of Fort Collins, Colorado. The Hubs connect working-land managers with science-based resources and partners to empower climate-smart decision-making. Prior to joining USDA Agricultural Research Service in 2016, Dr. Peck was an Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Wyoming. She specializes in decision-making under uncertainty, including agricultural drought preparedness and response, and disease management at the livestock-wildlife interface. Raised on a dairy farm in upstate New York, Dr. Peck is a first-generation college student and proud alumna of the McNair Scholars Program. She holds a B.S. in Wildlife Biology and an M.S. in Agricultural Economics, both from the University of Wyoming, and a Ph.D. in Agricultural & Resource Economics from Oregon State University.
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Date: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Dannele Peck, Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpdO-srD4tGNTKSg19pPufOYPPz0hT7N-T After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The Grassland Productivity Forecast or “Grass-Cast” uses over 30 years of historical data on weather and vegetation growth—combined with satellite NDVI data and seasonal precipitation scenarios—to predict if rangelands in individual ~6 mile x 6 mile areas are likely to produce above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal amounts of vegetation. Grass-Cast can help public and private rangeland managers throughout the Great Plains and Southwest adaptively manage lands by providing early warning of drought-induced vegetation shortages. It was first released to the public in 2018 for the Northern Great Plains, then expanded to the Southern Great Plains in 2019, and most recently to the Southwest states of New Mexico and Arizona in 2020. Originally developed to inform rangeland livestock management decisions, Grass-Cast can also be relevant for management and modeling of wildlife populations that depend on grassland habitat. As a member of the Grass-Cast science and outreach team, Dr. Peck looks forward to the unique opportunity this webinar provides to share Grass-Cast with a ecosystems and wildlife-oriented audience—to discover, together, its potential applications beyond livestock. About the speaker: Dr. Dannele Peck is Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub, based out of Fort Collins, Colorado. The Hubs connect working-land managers with science-based resources and partners to empower climate-smart decision-making. Prior to joining USDA Agricultural Research Service in 2016, Dr. Peck was an Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Wyoming. She specializes in decision-making under uncertainty, including agricultural drought preparedness and response, and disease management at the livestock-wildlife interface. Raised on a dairy farm in upstate New York, Dr. Peck is a first-generation college student and proud alumna of the McNair Scholars Program. She holds a B.S. in Wildlife Biology and an M.S. in Agricultural Economics, both from the University of Wyoming, and a Ph.D. in Agricultural & Resource Economics from Oregon State University.
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Integrating Climate Change Projections with Breeding Waterfowl Habitat Models
Presented by: Owen McKenna, Research Ecologist, USGS NPWRC; Ned Wright, Wildlife Biologist, USFWS HAPET Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions. Our goal with this interagency collaboration is to co-produce useable information to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. We are using a mechanistic hydrology model in combination with multi-decadal monitoring data and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. About the speakers: Dr. Owen McKenna is a Research Ecologist at Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, ND. Dr. McKenna holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Life Sciences at Arizona State University. His research is focused on studying how changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology and geochemistry of prairie-pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna has explored a regional climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems through analysis of long-term data. He also helped in development and application of the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS), which is an integrated hydro-geochemical model for prairie pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna is currently using PHyLiSS to assist land managers in estimating the future impacts of climate and land-use change on critical migratory waterfowl habitat. Ned Wright is a Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck, ND. Mr. Wright holds a B.S. in Conservation Biology from University of Wisconsin Madison. He oversees the coordination of long-term study of waterfowl populations in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. This survey is recognized as the primary method to monitor the abundance and distribution of breeding waterfowl by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.
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Presented by: Owen McKenna, Research Ecologist, USGS NPWRC; Ned Wright, Wildlife Biologist, USFWS HAPET Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions. Our goal with this interagency collaboration is to co-produce useable information to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. We are using a mechanistic hydrology model in combination with multi-decadal monitoring data and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. About the speakers: Dr. Owen McKenna is a Research Ecologist at Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, ND. Dr. McKenna holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Life Sciences at Arizona State University. His research is focused on studying how changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology and geochemistry of prairie-pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna has explored a regional climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems through analysis of long-term data. He also helped in development and application of the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS), which is an integrated hydro-geochemical model for prairie pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna is currently using PHyLiSS to assist land managers in estimating the future impacts of climate and land-use change on critical migratory waterfowl habitat. Ned Wright is a Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck, ND. Mr. Wright holds a B.S. in Conservation Biology from University of Wisconsin Madison. He oversees the coordination of long-term study of waterfowl populations in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. This survey is recognized as the primary method to monitor the abundance and distribution of breeding waterfowl by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.
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How the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework clarifies the challenge of modern natural resource management and supports strategic, forward-looking action
Presented by: Gregor Schuurman, Ecologist, National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program Abstract: Strong climate trends and other modern human drivers effectively place ecosystems in new contexts with new challenges for managers and society. Mounting costs of restoring past conditions or even “holding the line” to preserve current conditions are increasingly likened to paddling upstream. This situation is both a practical and a philosophical challenge for managers because an assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability”—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management. This assumption is expressed in widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. In this brave new non-stationary world, resisting change is not always the most effective approach for achieving long-term management goals. In fact, unexamined resistance may lead to misinvestment of limited management resources and loss of opportunities for more effective action. Managers are therefore expanding their toolkit. Resisting change continues to be a valid approach where careful consideration shows it to be strategic (i.e., feasible and cost-effective), but is increasingly complemented by options to instead “go with the flow” and either accept the trajectory or intervene to direct it towards preferred new conditions. New thinking in the National Park Service along these lines encourages managers to consider the full range of potential decisions, as expressed in the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The RAD framework, the product of long-term collaboration among a diverse set of partners, helps managers make informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change. This presentation will describe the challenge of strong ecological trajectories and transformations and introduce the RAD framework and illustrate its application alongside other important tools and concepts. About the speaker: Dr. Gregor Schuurman is an Ecologist with the National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program, which is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado. He works with parks and partners to understand and adapt to a wide range of climate change impacts. Specifically, his work focuses on 1) helping incorporate climate projections into management and planning, 2) producing and synthesizing management-relevant science, and 3) developing climate adaptation tools and concepts. Gregor received his Ph.D. from the University of Washington's Zoology Department and his M.S. from University of Minnesota’s Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior.
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Presented by: Gregor Schuurman, Ecologist, National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program Abstract: Strong climate trends and other modern human drivers effectively place ecosystems in new contexts with new challenges for managers and society. Mounting costs of restoring past conditions or even “holding the line” to preserve current conditions are increasingly likened to paddling upstream. This situation is both a practical and a philosophical challenge for managers because an assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability”—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management. This assumption is expressed in widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. In this brave new non-stationary world, resisting change is not always the most effective approach for achieving long-term management goals. In fact, unexamined resistance may lead to misinvestment of limited management resources and loss of opportunities for more effective action. Managers are therefore expanding their toolkit. Resisting change continues to be a valid approach where careful consideration shows it to be strategic (i.e., feasible and cost-effective), but is increasingly complemented by options to instead “go with the flow” and either accept the trajectory or intervene to direct it towards preferred new conditions. New thinking in the National Park Service along these lines encourages managers to consider the full range of potential decisions, as expressed in the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The RAD framework, the product of long-term collaboration among a diverse set of partners, helps managers make informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change. This presentation will describe the challenge of strong ecological trajectories and transformations and introduce the RAD framework and illustrate its application alongside other important tools and concepts. About the speaker: Dr. Gregor Schuurman is an Ecologist with the National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program, which is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado. He works with parks and partners to understand and adapt to a wide range of climate change impacts. Specifically, his work focuses on 1) helping incorporate climate projections into management and planning, 2) producing and synthesizing management-relevant science, and 3) developing climate adaptation tools and concepts. Gregor received his Ph.D. from the University of Washington's Zoology Department and his M.S. from University of Minnesota’s Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior.
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