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Rapid Ecological Change & Transformation Across the Middle and Southern Rockies During a Previous Climate Warming
How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. We leveraged the Neotoma Paleoecology Database to develop the record of landscape-scale rapid ecological change and transformation of vegetation over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies ecoregions. We modeled the climate drivers of rapid vegetation change and transformation at the landscape scale with TRacE21ka paleoclimate output in Boosted Regression Trees, and we modeled the role of landscape characteristics at the site-level with a Bayesian approach. We identified 60 unique transformations across all 29 sites that took 21 different forms. We found that, at the landscape scale, a 2 ℃ rise in temperature initiated rapid ecological change, and a 5 ℃ rise led to ecological transformation. We also found that landscape characteristics played only a minor role in climate-driven vegetation change, with somewhat faster change on southwest-facing slopes in the Southern Rockies. In addition, transition out of any one particular vegetation type generally resulted in a diverse array of ecological trajectories and outcomes across sites, suggesting that managers would benefit from considering multiple potential ecological futures in climate adaptation planning. This study shows that rapid warming, to the degree expected within the next few decades in the Southern and Middle Rockies, can trigger landscape-scale ecological changes, regardless of the landscape context.
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How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. We leveraged the Neotoma Paleoecology Database to develop the record of landscape-scale rapid ecological change and transformation of vegetation over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies ecoregions. We modeled the climate drivers of rapid vegetation change and transformation at the landscape scale with TRacE21ka paleoclimate output in Boosted Regression Trees, and we modeled the role of landscape characteristics at the site-level with a Bayesian approach. We identified 60 unique transformations across all 29 sites that took 21 different forms. We found that, at the landscape scale, a 2 ℃ rise in temperature initiated rapid ecological change, and a 5 ℃ rise led to ecological transformation. We also found that landscape characteristics played only a minor role in climate-driven vegetation change, with somewhat faster change on southwest-facing slopes in the Southern Rockies. In addition, transition out of any one particular vegetation type generally resulted in a diverse array of ecological trajectories and outcomes across sites, suggesting that managers would benefit from considering multiple potential ecological futures in climate adaptation planning. This study shows that rapid warming, to the degree expected within the next few decades in the Southern and Middle Rockies, can trigger landscape-scale ecological changes, regardless of the landscape context.
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Sustainable Management of Bison in a Changing World
Bison restoration has profound implications for ecological, economic and cultural domains, especially restoration into their former historic ranges. Climate change and climate variability, however, threaten sustainable restoration progress. The historic range of bison centered on the prairies of the Great Plains but spanned from Alaska to Mexico and from the Pacific coast to Florida and Pennsylvania, land which is now primarily privately held. Today, 63% of the 184,000 privately owned bison are located in the northern Great Plains, with 12,000 additional bison in the public sector, and 20,000 additional bison in each of the non-profit NGO and Tribal sectors. This multi-sectoral production-conservation system is referred to as the bison management system (BMS) and all sectors are intricately and economically linked through the production market and the cross-transferal of surplus animals. Bison are native ecological keystone species in native prairies and help to restore ecosystems. Their innate wallowing behavior produces shallow bare-soil depressions which create habitat for many other prairie-inhabiting species. Because bison create these wallows by excavating, urinating, and rolling, they also open the seed bank and concentrate nutrient inputs, and in turn increase plant biodiversity in the immediately adjacent landscape. Economically, the bison market has grown over the past 20 years, with bison market returns 1.5–3.3 times that of cattle. Finally, bison repopulation on Tribal lands increases food sovereignty, enhances economic stability, and revitalizes cultural connections to Tribal lands. The newly established Center of Excellence for Bison Studies at South Dakota State University aims to advance research, education, and outreach that address issues associated with each the ecological, economic, and cultural domains throughout the BMS, and is especially focused on restoration challenges associated with climate change and climate variability in conservation and production settings.
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Bison restoration has profound implications for ecological, economic and cultural domains, especially restoration into their former historic ranges. Climate change and climate variability, however, threaten sustainable restoration progress. The historic range of bison centered on the prairies of the Great Plains but spanned from Alaska to Mexico and from the Pacific coast to Florida and Pennsylvania, land which is now primarily privately held. Today, 63% of the 184,000 privately owned bison are located in the northern Great Plains, with 12,000 additional bison in the public sector, and 20,000 additional bison in each of the non-profit NGO and Tribal sectors. This multi-sectoral production-conservation system is referred to as the bison management system (BMS) and all sectors are intricately and economically linked through the production market and the cross-transferal of surplus animals. Bison are native ecological keystone species in native prairies and help to restore ecosystems. Their innate wallowing behavior produces shallow bare-soil depressions which create habitat for many other prairie-inhabiting species. Because bison create these wallows by excavating, urinating, and rolling, they also open the seed bank and concentrate nutrient inputs, and in turn increase plant biodiversity in the immediately adjacent landscape. Economically, the bison market has grown over the past 20 years, with bison market returns 1.5–3.3 times that of cattle. Finally, bison repopulation on Tribal lands increases food sovereignty, enhances economic stability, and revitalizes cultural connections to Tribal lands. The newly established Center of Excellence for Bison Studies at South Dakota State University aims to advance research, education, and outreach that address issues associated with each the ecological, economic, and cultural domains throughout the BMS, and is especially focused on restoration challenges associated with climate change and climate variability in conservation and production settings.
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Fires of Unusual Size: Future of Extreme Wildfires in the Continental United States
Recent observed increases in wildfire activity across the contiguous United States (U.S.) and the increasingly apparent effects of climate change on fire regimes have created novel challenges for fire and ecosystem managers requiring more robust information on changes in future fire risk, especially for the largest fire events, over the next several decades. Today, the majority of wildfire ignitions are caused by human activities—so capturing anthropogenic aspects of changing fire activity beyond those associated with climate change is critically important. In this work, we use a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape, as well as projections of future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the largest fire, and overall area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. over the next four decades. By 2020-2060, we project an average increase in the number of fires (+56%) and burned area (+59%) across the U.S. compared to the historical period (1984-2019). For the largest fire events, we find nearly ubiquitous increases across all ecoregions (contiguous U.S. average +63%). Overall, our results suggest that climate change in the coming decades will drive more frequent occurrences of fires in regions where wildfire was rare (i.e., much of the eastern U.S.), and unprecedented increases in the size of the largest fires in regions where fires were common (i.e., in the western United States).
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Recent observed increases in wildfire activity across the contiguous United States (U.S.) and the increasingly apparent effects of climate change on fire regimes have created novel challenges for fire and ecosystem managers requiring more robust information on changes in future fire risk, especially for the largest fire events, over the next several decades. Today, the majority of wildfire ignitions are caused by human activities—so capturing anthropogenic aspects of changing fire activity beyond those associated with climate change is critically important. In this work, we use a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape, as well as projections of future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the largest fire, and overall area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. over the next four decades. By 2020-2060, we project an average increase in the number of fires (+56%) and burned area (+59%) across the U.S. compared to the historical period (1984-2019). For the largest fire events, we find nearly ubiquitous increases across all ecoregions (contiguous U.S. average +63%). Overall, our results suggest that climate change in the coming decades will drive more frequent occurrences of fires in regions where wildfire was rare (i.e., much of the eastern U.S.), and unprecedented increases in the size of the largest fires in regions where fires were common (i.e., in the western United States).
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The Increasing Role of Drought in Ecological Transformation
Drought, despite being an episodic phenomenon, is capable of triggering persistent changes to ecosystems, with important consequences for both biodiversity and human communities. These transformational ecological droughts (TEDs) are increasing globally as a function of changing drought conditions, compounding stressors (including competing water use with humans), land management legacies, and novel climate contexts. Making decisions about how to adapt to these transformations is impaired by a limited recognition of the widespread potential for TEDs, a lack of understanding about the mechanisms by which transformation may occur, and uncertainty about the potential ecological trajectories such transformations will take. In this presentation, I will share the results of an interdisciplinary science synthesis that focused on how the risk of transformational drought is changing in the 21st century. I will provide a broad overview of the phenomenon of TED, including the diverse pathways by which it leads to transformation, highlighting mechanisms and case studies relevant to the North Central region.
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Drought, despite being an episodic phenomenon, is capable of triggering persistent changes to ecosystems, with important consequences for both biodiversity and human communities. These transformational ecological droughts (TEDs) are increasing globally as a function of changing drought conditions, compounding stressors (including competing water use with humans), land management legacies, and novel climate contexts. Making decisions about how to adapt to these transformations is impaired by a limited recognition of the widespread potential for TEDs, a lack of understanding about the mechanisms by which transformation may occur, and uncertainty about the potential ecological trajectories such transformations will take. In this presentation, I will share the results of an interdisciplinary science synthesis that focused on how the risk of transformational drought is changing in the 21st century. I will provide a broad overview of the phenomenon of TED, including the diverse pathways by which it leads to transformation, highlighting mechanisms and case studies relevant to the North Central region.
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Building A Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sicangu Lakota (Rosebud Sioux)
The Sicangu Lakota (Rosebud Sioux) tribe recognizes the climate crisis we are facing, and is planning to adapt and thrive. The recently adopted Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sicangu Lakota Oyate recognizes the crisis, incorporates the knowledge of elders, and identifies priority actions the community can take. Recommendations fall into: Protecting the Oyate (community) -- focused on life and property protection and severe weather; protecting our water -- acknowledging Rosebud's relative good fortune regarding water, but identifying critical steps to ensure its protection; and protecting the land and living relatives -- which acknowledges the potential for significant change due to climate change. The plan also recommends creation of a Sicangu Climate Center to hold and manage data and information about the tribe's lands, air, water, people, and climate and to use these to reinforce tribal sovereignty.
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The Sicangu Lakota (Rosebud Sioux) tribe recognizes the climate crisis we are facing, and is planning to adapt and thrive. The recently adopted Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sicangu Lakota Oyate recognizes the crisis, incorporates the knowledge of elders, and identifies priority actions the community can take. Recommendations fall into: Protecting the Oyate (community) -- focused on life and property protection and severe weather; protecting our water -- acknowledging Rosebud's relative good fortune regarding water, but identifying critical steps to ensure its protection; and protecting the land and living relatives -- which acknowledges the potential for significant change due to climate change. The plan also recommends creation of a Sicangu Climate Center to hold and manage data and information about the tribe's lands, air, water, people, and climate and to use these to reinforce tribal sovereignty.
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Social Science is RAD
This presentation explores the social factors that contribute to agency decisions about ecological transformation. Faced with global climate change and ecological transformation, natural resource managers are being forced to reconsider how they engage with stakeholders and make decisions. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework has emerged in response to this challenge, offering natural resource managers a simple, explicit decision framework to support action. However, RAD decisions are judgments made by people. Managers presented with the same information about future conditions often come to different decisions. In this project, we explore the factors that shape management decisions and consider implications for how we engage with stakeholders. This presentation draws on social science research on both internal factors and external factors that shape management decisions. More specifically, we explore the intersection between managers’ mental models (their understanding of a social–ecological system) and the social and institutional factors that constrain managers’ decision spaces. Exploring these factors helps managers be more self-reflective, and also highlights the importance of using public and stakeholder engagement methods that consider other forms of knowledge and the range of social, political, and economic factors that will be impacted by management decisions.
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This presentation explores the social factors that contribute to agency decisions about ecological transformation. Faced with global climate change and ecological transformation, natural resource managers are being forced to reconsider how they engage with stakeholders and make decisions. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework has emerged in response to this challenge, offering natural resource managers a simple, explicit decision framework to support action. However, RAD decisions are judgments made by people. Managers presented with the same information about future conditions often come to different decisions. In this project, we explore the factors that shape management decisions and consider implications for how we engage with stakeholders. This presentation draws on social science research on both internal factors and external factors that shape management decisions. More specifically, we explore the intersection between managers’ mental models (their understanding of a social–ecological system) and the social and institutional factors that constrain managers’ decision spaces. Exploring these factors helps managers be more self-reflective, and also highlights the importance of using public and stakeholder engagement methods that consider other forms of knowledge and the range of social, political, and economic factors that will be impacted by management decisions.
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Grasslands Synthesis Project: Findings and Next Steps
This webinar will discuss findings from the Grasslands Synthesis Project, recently published as USGS Open File-Report 2023-1037 and USGS Open File-Report 2023-1036. Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States, and understanding how climate change and variability will impact these ecosystems is crucial for successful grassland management in the 21st century. In 2020, the NC CASC began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies and nongovernmental organizations to help meet regional grassland management goals. This project, “A Synthesis of Climate Impacts, Stakeholder Needs, and Adaptation in Northern Great Plains Grassland Ecosystems'' (hereafter, the Grasslands Synthesis Project), had two primary goals: (1) to synthesize management goals and challenges for grassland managers across the region and (2) to assess the state-of-the-science and identify knowledge gaps for addressing the goals and challenges within the context of climate change. Two working groups and an advisory committee worked for two years to collect, analyze, and synthesize existing reports, peer-reviewed literature, and management documents. We identified 70 specific research questions organized into 15 categories of research needs that, if answered, would support grassland managers in meeting their management goals under a changing climate. Those research questions were then used to guide a synthesis of available information on the impacts of climate change and variability on temperature, water availability, wildfire, vegetation, wildlife, large-bodied ruminants, grazing, and land-use change and the implications for grassland management in the North Central region. We will discuss these findings, remaining research needs, and next steps in this research.
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This webinar will discuss findings from the Grasslands Synthesis Project, recently published as USGS Open File-Report 2023-1037 and USGS Open File-Report 2023-1036. Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States, and understanding how climate change and variability will impact these ecosystems is crucial for successful grassland management in the 21st century. In 2020, the NC CASC began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies and nongovernmental organizations to help meet regional grassland management goals. This project, “A Synthesis of Climate Impacts, Stakeholder Needs, and Adaptation in Northern Great Plains Grassland Ecosystems'' (hereafter, the Grasslands Synthesis Project), had two primary goals: (1) to synthesize management goals and challenges for grassland managers across the region and (2) to assess the state-of-the-science and identify knowledge gaps for addressing the goals and challenges within the context of climate change. Two working groups and an advisory committee worked for two years to collect, analyze, and synthesize existing reports, peer-reviewed literature, and management documents. We identified 70 specific research questions organized into 15 categories of research needs that, if answered, would support grassland managers in meeting their management goals under a changing climate. Those research questions were then used to guide a synthesis of available information on the impacts of climate change and variability on temperature, water availability, wildfire, vegetation, wildlife, large-bodied ruminants, grazing, and land-use change and the implications for grassland management in the North Central region. We will discuss these findings, remaining research needs, and next steps in this research.
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The Ogallala Data Directory: A Tool for Ogallala Aquifer Region Researchers and Decision-Makers
The Ogallala Aquifer (OA) underlies about 111 million acres of Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, including about 1.9 million acres of Tribal lands and 2.9 million acres of federal lands. Water from the aquifer is vital to regional aquatic, riparian, range, and agricultural ecosystems. Management of the OA presents challenges in various forms, as it is a common resource that crosses multiple state lines and is subject to an array of Tribal, Federal, State, and Municipal regulations. Aquifer depletion, especially in a region expected to become hotter and drier with climate change, presents a growing problem, threatening both natural and managed ecosystems. One way to begin approaching the complex issue of understanding and managing the Ogallala Aquifer at the regional scale is to address the problem of multiple large, disparate datasets that, as a result of being difficult to locate, are not easily combined and synthesized in a way that supports science-based decision-making and communication between and among stakeholders. The Ogallala Data Directory Project worked to identify datasets and make them easier to access with less labor-intensive searching by creating a metadata library with records corresponding to datasets located in various places online. Project outputs include a fully searchable website housing metadata records that assist in cataloging datasets by geographic scope of coverage, time period, and data type. Metadata entries are included for hydrologic, agricultural, and ecological data. The directory is hosted with the Ogallala Water Coordinated Agriculture Project data portal that has been built through ongoing collaboration with the Colorado State University Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory.
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The Ogallala Aquifer (OA) underlies about 111 million acres of Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, including about 1.9 million acres of Tribal lands and 2.9 million acres of federal lands. Water from the aquifer is vital to regional aquatic, riparian, range, and agricultural ecosystems. Management of the OA presents challenges in various forms, as it is a common resource that crosses multiple state lines and is subject to an array of Tribal, Federal, State, and Municipal regulations. Aquifer depletion, especially in a region expected to become hotter and drier with climate change, presents a growing problem, threatening both natural and managed ecosystems. One way to begin approaching the complex issue of understanding and managing the Ogallala Aquifer at the regional scale is to address the problem of multiple large, disparate datasets that, as a result of being difficult to locate, are not easily combined and synthesized in a way that supports science-based decision-making and communication between and among stakeholders. The Ogallala Data Directory Project worked to identify datasets and make them easier to access with less labor-intensive searching by creating a metadata library with records corresponding to datasets located in various places online. Project outputs include a fully searchable website housing metadata records that assist in cataloging datasets by geographic scope of coverage, time period, and data type. Metadata entries are included for hydrologic, agricultural, and ecological data. The directory is hosted with the Ogallala Water Coordinated Agriculture Project data portal that has been built through ongoing collaboration with the Colorado State University Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory.
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Climate Responses and Adaptation in Heterogeneous Landscapes
Biogeography entwines the studies of demography, disturbances, dispersal, and in light of changing climate – disequilibrium dynamics. All of these ecological and evolutionary processes interact to shape the stability of species current and future distributions, and – as I will focus on in this talk – may be influenced by landscape heterogeneity. Using examples from a range of systems in the Western United States, including Mediterranean oak savannas, alpine tundra, and the high elevation desert, I will discuss the ways in which topographic gradients mediate population and community dynamics of plants under changing environmental conditions. For example, microclimatic gradients drive variation in demographic rates that result in multiple pathways to demographic stability across a species current range, but also may lead to multiple pathways of vulnerability to changing climate. Finally, I will discuss work synthesizing the knowledge gaps in climate adaptation in mountain landscapes – from the difficulty of defining a refugia to the challenges of managing systems with high climate variability and biological lags.
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Biogeography entwines the studies of demography, disturbances, dispersal, and in light of changing climate – disequilibrium dynamics. All of these ecological and evolutionary processes interact to shape the stability of species current and future distributions, and – as I will focus on in this talk – may be influenced by landscape heterogeneity. Using examples from a range of systems in the Western United States, including Mediterranean oak savannas, alpine tundra, and the high elevation desert, I will discuss the ways in which topographic gradients mediate population and community dynamics of plants under changing environmental conditions. For example, microclimatic gradients drive variation in demographic rates that result in multiple pathways to demographic stability across a species current range, but also may lead to multiple pathways of vulnerability to changing climate. Finally, I will discuss work synthesizing the knowledge gaps in climate adaptation in mountain landscapes – from the difficulty of defining a refugia to the challenges of managing systems with high climate variability and biological lags.
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Uncharted Waters: Incorporating Farmer and Rancher Perspectives to Address Systemic Water Shortages in the Colorado River Basin
The Colorado River Basin is in crisis. As a result of climate change induced long-term drought, the Basin faces chronic water shortages with significant impacts across economic sectors. The agricultural sector is the largest water user in the Basin, meaning that farmers and ranchers are central to both the impacts of and solutions to water shortages. Their involvement will be key to developing effective policy solutions to today’s water crisis. This webinar will present findings from a survey of 1,020 agricultural water users throughout six states to understand their perspectives on the present crisis, current adaptation strategies, and preferences for water conservation programs to address water shortages going forward. It will also highlight case studies of conservation program preferences and adoption in two headwater subbasins in Colorado and Wyoming and the current status of efforts to adapt to increased uncertainty. Given the importance of agriculture as the primary water user in the Basin, proactively engaging agricultural communities will be critical to successfully managing water shortages. Understanding the perspectives and preferences of agricultural water users can help guide the development of solutions that work for producers and other users in the Basin.
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The Colorado River Basin is in crisis. As a result of climate change induced long-term drought, the Basin faces chronic water shortages with significant impacts across economic sectors. The agricultural sector is the largest water user in the Basin, meaning that farmers and ranchers are central to both the impacts of and solutions to water shortages. Their involvement will be key to developing effective policy solutions to today’s water crisis. This webinar will present findings from a survey of 1,020 agricultural water users throughout six states to understand their perspectives on the present crisis, current adaptation strategies, and preferences for water conservation programs to address water shortages going forward. It will also highlight case studies of conservation program preferences and adoption in two headwater subbasins in Colorado and Wyoming and the current status of efforts to adapt to increased uncertainty. Given the importance of agriculture as the primary water user in the Basin, proactively engaging agricultural communities will be critical to successfully managing water shortages. Understanding the perspectives and preferences of agricultural water users can help guide the development of solutions that work for producers and other users in the Basin.
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