Archived Events
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Ecological Scenarios: Embracing Ecological Uncertainty for Climate Change Adaptation
In a rapidly changing environment, natural resource managers must determine how to steward ecosystems that are changing, often in unfamiliar and uncertain ways. Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Building on current methods that incorporate uncertainties in future climate to develop scenarios for climate change adaptation, our work informs how scenarios can better represent uncertainties in how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes. In this webinar, we present results from a working group process that identified principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties in scenario development. We provide examples of how qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future, drawing on preliminary results from an ongoing case study focused on the Nebraska Sandhills. We further highlight the need for accessible ecological projections and tools that can help practitioners assess and incorporate uncertainty in future ecosystem change to support climate change adaptation.
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In a rapidly changing environment, natural resource managers must determine how to steward ecosystems that are changing, often in unfamiliar and uncertain ways. Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Building on current methods that incorporate uncertainties in future climate to develop scenarios for climate change adaptation, our work informs how scenarios can better represent uncertainties in how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes. In this webinar, we present results from a working group process that identified principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties in scenario development. We provide examples of how qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future, drawing on preliminary results from an ongoing case study focused on the Nebraska Sandhills. We further highlight the need for accessible ecological projections and tools that can help practitioners assess and incorporate uncertainty in future ecosystem change to support climate change adaptation.
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CANCELLED: Shared societal benefit assessment as a path toward improving data collection and sharing in the Arctic region
Webinar CANCELLED- will update with reschedule information as soon as possible. The US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) was created to support coordinated multi-agency improvements to Arctic data collection (observing, monitoring) and sharing systems to better support societal benefit. It developed its BENEFIT methods and tool in alignment with agency (e.g. NOAA) and interagency (US Group on Earth Observations) efforts, but adapted to encompass Arctic-specific considerations like subsistence-based food security and escalating environmental threats in rural communities. This talk will describe US AON’s approach to societal benefit assessment and present the results of its application toward gaps assessment in the areas of risk management and hazard mitigation in the Alaskan Arctic. Focal areas in this work include wildland fires, coastal flooding, landslides, and aviation weather.
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Webinar CANCELLED- will update with reschedule information as soon as possible. The US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) was created to support coordinated multi-agency improvements to Arctic data collection (observing, monitoring) and sharing systems to better support societal benefit. It developed its BENEFIT methods and tool in alignment with agency (e.g. NOAA) and interagency (US Group on Earth Observations) efforts, but adapted to encompass Arctic-specific considerations like subsistence-based food security and escalating environmental threats in rural communities. This talk will describe US AON’s approach to societal benefit assessment and present the results of its application toward gaps assessment in the areas of risk management and hazard mitigation in the Alaskan Arctic. Focal areas in this work include wildland fires, coastal flooding, landslides, and aviation weather.
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From Adaptation Planning to Implementation in Aaniiih Nakoda Nations: Challenges & Lessons Learned
This presentation will outline the development of the Fort Belknap Indian Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan, highlighting key challenges, lessons learned, and ongoing efforts to strengthen community and natural resource resilience in the face of increasing climate-driven extreme weather events.
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This presentation will outline the development of the Fort Belknap Indian Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan, highlighting key challenges, lessons learned, and ongoing efforts to strengthen community and natural resource resilience in the face of increasing climate-driven extreme weather events.
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Integrating Seasonal Dynamics into Risk-Informed Wildfire Planning
Risk-informed wildfire planning tools such as Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) and Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessments (QWRAs) have grown in popularity and are now used locally, nationally, and internationally. Forest and fire managers use these tools to plan where to coordinate during a wildfire incident and support decisions that protect people and ecosystems during a time of increasing wildfire activity. However, because the tools were originally developed for wildfire incidents, the fire behavior modeling and functions that guide them are based on summer conditions when unintentional ignitions are most common. This focus limits their ability to represent spring and fall conditions when managers apply prescribed fire and excludes seasonal patterns that influence resources that people value across the landscape. To address these limitations in the Colorado Front Range, our team has updated the fire behavior modeling to include a broader range of seasonal conditions and is developing a recreation archetype that captures how people use the landscape throughout the year. Together, these updates demonstrate the value of expanding risk-informed wildfire planning to include a wider set of fire scenarios and account for seasonal dynamics.
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Risk-informed wildfire planning tools such as Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) and Quantitative Wildfire Risk Assessments (QWRAs) have grown in popularity and are now used locally, nationally, and internationally. Forest and fire managers use these tools to plan where to coordinate during a wildfire incident and support decisions that protect people and ecosystems during a time of increasing wildfire activity. However, because the tools were originally developed for wildfire incidents, the fire behavior modeling and functions that guide them are based on summer conditions when unintentional ignitions are most common. This focus limits their ability to represent spring and fall conditions when managers apply prescribed fire and excludes seasonal patterns that influence resources that people value across the landscape. To address these limitations in the Colorado Front Range, our team has updated the fire behavior modeling to include a broader range of seasonal conditions and is developing a recreation archetype that captures how people use the landscape throughout the year. Together, these updates demonstrate the value of expanding risk-informed wildfire planning to include a wider set of fire scenarios and account for seasonal dynamics.
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Tongue River 2100: Future Tongue River streamflow estimates to enable Northern Cheyenne data-driven water management and planning
Water availability in western U.S. watersheds is governed by precipitation, available energy, and human-driven water management. The Tongue River flows northeast from the Bighorn mountains in Wyoming to join the Yellowstone River in Montana and exemplifies these water availability tensions. There are many small reservoirs in the headwaters and one large reservoir where downstream water users and the Northern Cheyenne Tribe hold storage water rights. This project involves working closely with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe and other partners to co-produce knowledge to enable data-driven water management and planning. Other project partners include the Tongue River Water Users Association, the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. To address how water availability in the watershed might change under future climate conditions, we are combining a database of future hydrology projections from 32 climate models with a river-system model to account for human water use and management. To combine these two modeling techniques requires approaches to gap-fill streamflow observations throughout the watershed, bias correction of modeled streamflow to naturalized streamflow, and the use of bias-corrected streamflow in the river-system model to produce future-climate streamflow estimates throughout the watershed. This information could help water managers evaluate the viability of current reservoir operations and understand the potential for water shortages through the end of the century. Preliminary results suggest that annual streamflow volumes will decline in the watershed, peak streamflow will occur earlier in the year, and that periods of high streamflow will also decrease. These hydrologic changes could pose challenges for reservoir operations, irrigation, and the riverine ecosystem throughout the watershed.
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Water availability in western U.S. watersheds is governed by precipitation, available energy, and human-driven water management. The Tongue River flows northeast from the Bighorn mountains in Wyoming to join the Yellowstone River in Montana and exemplifies these water availability tensions. There are many small reservoirs in the headwaters and one large reservoir where downstream water users and the Northern Cheyenne Tribe hold storage water rights. This project involves working closely with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe and other partners to co-produce knowledge to enable data-driven water management and planning. Other project partners include the Tongue River Water Users Association, the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office, and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. To address how water availability in the watershed might change under future climate conditions, we are combining a database of future hydrology projections from 32 climate models with a river-system model to account for human water use and management. To combine these two modeling techniques requires approaches to gap-fill streamflow observations throughout the watershed, bias correction of modeled streamflow to naturalized streamflow, and the use of bias-corrected streamflow in the river-system model to produce future-climate streamflow estimates throughout the watershed. This information could help water managers evaluate the viability of current reservoir operations and understand the potential for water shortages through the end of the century. Preliminary results suggest that annual streamflow volumes will decline in the watershed, peak streamflow will occur earlier in the year, and that periods of high streamflow will also decrease. These hydrologic changes could pose challenges for reservoir operations, irrigation, and the riverine ecosystem throughout the watershed.
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Organizing the Climate Adaptation Toolkit
There are a growing number of planning processes and tools designed to meet the challenge of adapting to climate change. However, a common understanding of how these processes and tools relate to one another has been lacking. This webinar will highlight commonalities across existing adaptation planning processes, articulate how mainstream adaptation tools (e.g., scenario planning, the Resist–Accept–Direct [RAD] and Resistance–Resilience–Transformation [RRT] frameworks, structured decision making) relate to the steps in these processes, and offer a generalized approach for climate-informed resource stewardship planning. This shared understanding can support clear communication, efficient coordination, and cross-jurisdictional collaboration in responding to climate change.
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There are a growing number of planning processes and tools designed to meet the challenge of adapting to climate change. However, a common understanding of how these processes and tools relate to one another has been lacking. This webinar will highlight commonalities across existing adaptation planning processes, articulate how mainstream adaptation tools (e.g., scenario planning, the Resist–Accept–Direct [RAD] and Resistance–Resilience–Transformation [RRT] frameworks, structured decision making) relate to the steps in these processes, and offer a generalized approach for climate-informed resource stewardship planning. This shared understanding can support clear communication, efficient coordination, and cross-jurisdictional collaboration in responding to climate change.
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