Can conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans help predict summer rainfall in the Northern Great Plains? New research by NC CASC researchers Prasad Thota and Imtiaz Rangwala suggests they can. The team developed a statistical model to forecast warm-season rainfall and extreme downpours across Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, regions where both drought and flooding can have major impacts on agriculture, wetlands, and local communities.

Using 69 years of weather records (1951-2019) from 60 monitoring stations, this study examined how large-scale climate patterns, particularly sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, influence rainfall across the region. They found that these ocean patterns, especially those in the Pacific, provide a useful signal for predicting seasonal rainfall up to two months in advance. By providing earlier insight into unusually wet or dry conditions, this forecasting approach could help farmers, water managers, and conservation practitioners make more informed decisions before the season begins. Looking ahead, the model could also help scientists explore how precipitation extremes may change as the climate continues to warm.

Read the full study here.