Please join us for the next NC CASC webinar on Thursday, April 14, 2022, 11a -12p MDT:

Tools for developing reproducible climate futures for resource planning

Presented by: 

David Lawrence, National Park Service 

Amber Runyon, National Park Service

Other co-authors:

John Gross, National Park Service

Gregor Schuurman, National Park Service

Brian Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, North Central CASC

Joel Reynolds, National Park Service

Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYrduGrpj4iE9INQlaV2SclWlQu123wURPH

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting.  

Abstract:

When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.  Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it.  Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive measures to prepare for and adapt to scenarios of change.   A key part of scenario planning is generating a list of potential future climates we may experience.  This webinar will describe and compare different approaches to generate the climate futures and identify an approach that captures a broad range of climate conditions (a key ingredient to developing scenarios) across both near and long-term planning horizons.  We then will describe tools for creating reproducible climate futures, including an R package and training materials that enables users to develop their own projections, and provide guidance on their use.  Over the past decade, we have operationalized the generation of climate futures and with the recent development of the Reproducible Climate Futures (RCF) R package, standardized and streamlined their production.  We have found climate futures and scenarios offer an adaptable approach to planning across a broad range of management contexts.   

About the speakers:

David Lawrence specializes in aquatic ecology and has worked as a climate change scientist within the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program since 2017.  In this role David conducts and translates climate change research to support forward-looking land and water management.  David has a PhD in ecology from the University of Washington. 

Amber Runyon is an ecologist for the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program where she collaborates with park managers to provide management-relevant projections of future-climate that serve as the basis for climate-informed planning. Amber has a PhD in ecology from Colorado State University.  

Past NC CASC Webinar Recordings: https://nccasc.colorado.edu/webinars