Wyoming - Water, Precip, and Drought | North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center

According to the NCA5, Wyoming is part of the Northern Great Plains region.

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Northern Great Plains related to Water, Precipitation, and Drought.

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends.

CHAPTER	KEY MESSAGE	Statement	Likelihood	Confidence
Ch4: Water	KM4.1: Climate Change Will Continue to Cause Profound Changes in the Water Cycle	Changes to the water cycle pose risks to people and nature. Alaska and northern and eastern regions of the US are seeing and expect to see more precipitation on average, while the Caribbean, Hawai'i, and southwestern regions of the US are seeing and expect to see less precipitation.		Medium
		Heavier rainfall events are expected to increase across the Nation...	Very Likely	High
		...and warming will increase evaporation and plant water use where moisture is not a limiting factor.		Medium
		Groundwater supplies are also threatened by warming temperatures that are expected to increase demand.	Very Likely	High
		Snow cover will decrease and melt earlier.	Very Likely	High
		Increasing aridity, declining groundwater levels, declining snow cover, and drought threaten freshwater supplies.		Medium
	KM4.2: Water Cycle Changes Will Affect All Communities, with Disproportionate Impacts for Some	Natural and human systems have evolved under the water cycle's historical patterns, making rapid adaptation challenging. Heavier rainfall, combined with changes in land use and other factors such as soil moisture and snow, is leading to increasing flood damage.	Very Likely	High
		Drought impacts are also increasing...		Medium
		...as are flood- and drought-related water quality impacts.		Medium
		All communities will be affected, but in particular those on the frontline of climate change - including many Black, Hispanic, Tribal, Indigenous, and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities - face growing risks from changes to water quantity and quality due to the proximity of their homes and workplaces to hazards and limited access to resources and infrastructure.	Very Likely	High
	KM4.3: Progress Toward Adaptation Has Been Uneven	The ability of water managers to adapt to changes has improved with better data, advances in decision-making, and steps toward cooperation. However, infrastructure standards and water allocation institutions have been slow to adapt to a changing climate...		High
		...and efforts are confounded by wet and dry cycles driven by natural climate variability.	Very Likely	High
		Frontline, Tribal, and Indigenous communities are heavily impacted but lack resources to adapt effectively, and they are not fully represented in decision-making.		High
Ch7: Forests	KM7.1: Forests Are Increasingly Affected by Climate Change and Disturbances	Climate change is increasing the frequency, scale, and severity of some disturbances that drive forest change and affect ecosystem services.		High
		Continued warming and regional changes in precipitation are expected to amplify interactions among disturbance agents...	Likely	High
		...and further alter forest ecosystem structure and function.	Likely	High
	KM7.2: Climate Change Affects Ecosystem Services Provided by Forests	Climate change threatens the ecosystem services forests provide that enrich human lives and sustain life more broadly. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered disturbances are affecting the capacity of forest ecosystems to sequester and store carbon...		High
		...provide clean water and clean air...		High
		...produce timber and non-timber products...		High
		...and provide recreation, among other benefits.		Medium
		Further climate effects will interact with societal changes to determine the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services.	Likely	High
Ch8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity	KM8.1: Climate Change is Driving Rapid Ecosystem Transformations	Climate change, together with other stressors, is driving transformational changes in ecosystems, including loss and conversion to other states, and changes in productivity.	Very Likely	High
		These changes have serious implications for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Many types of extreme events are increasing in frequency and/or severity and can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes.		Medium
		Adaptive governance frameworks, including adaptive management, combined with monitoring can help to prepare for, respond to, and alleviate climate change impacts, as well as build resilience for the future.		Medium
	KM8.3: Impacts to Ecosystem Services Create Risks and Opportunities	Climate change is having variable and increasing impacts on ecosystem services and benefits, from food production to clean water to carbon sequestration, with consequences for human well-being.	Very Likely	High
		Changes in availability and quality of ecosystem services, combined with existing social inequities, have disproportionate impacts on certain communities.	Very Likely	High
		Equity-driven nature-based solutions, designed to protect, manage, and restore ecosystems for human well-being, can likely provide climate adaptation and mitigation benefits.	Likely	Medium
Ch25: Northern Great Plains	KM25.1: Climate Change is Compounding the Impacts of Extreme Events	The Northern Great Plains region is experiencing unprecedented extremes related to changes in climate, including severe droughts…	Likely	High
		...increases in hail frequency and size...		Medium
		...floods...	Very Likely	High
		...and wildfire.	Likely	High
		Rising temperatures across the region are expected to lead to increased evapotranspiration...	Very Likely	High
		...as well as greater variability in precipitation.	Very Likely	High
	KM25.2: Human and Ecological Health Face Rising Threats from Climate-Related Key Events	Climate-related hazards, such as drought, wildfire, and flooding, are already harming the physical, mental, and spiritual health of Northern Great Plains region residents…	Virtually Certain	High
		...as well as the ecology of the region.	Very Likely	Medium
		As the climate continues to change, it is expected to have increasing and cascading negative effects on human health and on the lands, waters, and species on which people depend.	Very Likely	Medium
	KM25.4: Climate Response Involves Navigating Complex Trade-Offs and Tensions	Climate change is creating new, and exacerbating existing, tensions and trade-offs between land use, water availability, ecosystem services, and other considerations in the region, leading to decisions that are expected to benefit some and set back others.		Very High
		Decision-makers are navigating a complicated landscape of shifting demographics, policy and regulatory tensions, and barriers to action.		High
		Changes in temperature and precipitation averages, extremes, and seasonality will alter the productivity of working lands, resulting in land-use shifts to alternative crops or conversion to grasslands.	Likely	Medium
		Shifts in energy demand, production, and policy will change land-use needs for energy infrastructure.	Likely	Medium
	KM25.5: Communities Are Building the Capacity to Adapt and Transform	Adaptation is underway in the Northern Great Plains to address the effects of climate change. Agricultural communities are shifting toward climate adaptation measures such as innovative soil practices, new drought-management tools, and water-use partnerships.		Medium
		Several Tribal Nations are leading efforts to incorporate Traditional Knowledge and governance into their adaptation plans.		High
		Resource managers are increasingly relying on tools such as scenario planning to improve the adaptive capacity of natural ecosystems.		Medium

Summary

The Northern Great Plains (NGP) consists of three primary regions - mountainous west, semiarid high plains, and humid eastern plains - that may respond to changes in climate differently (11). Since 1900, the annual average temperature in the NGP has increased by 1.6-2.6 degrees F, with the most pronounced changes occurring in the winter; Wyoming in particular has seen an increase in warm nights, while the entire region has seen a decrease in very cold days (12). This will have a few key impacts:

The timing and form of precipitation is changing, with the number of days "favorable to significant hail" increasing by 2-4 days per year (12). Increases in heavy precipitation events will also increase annual runoff (2).

“Annual precipitation projections show large regional differences and a wide range of potential differences” (1)

Figure 4.3: "Under an intermediate (RCP4.5) scenario, annual precipitation is projected to increase for much of the US (a), except for the Southwest, Hawai'i, and the US Caribbean (not shown; see Figure 23.2, which shows rainfall reductions of about 10% by midcentury, and increases in dry days during the wet season, for Puerto Rico). The wettest and driest 20% of projections (b, c) illustrate the range of uncertainty in annual precipitation projections. This figure shows projected changes in inches. In the Southwest, a half-inch change in annual precipitation has more influence on the region's hydrology than does a half-inch change in the Northeast (see Figure 2.10 for percent changes under different warming levels). Projections are not available for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Figure credit: University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA NCEI, and CISESS NC" (1).

Decreasing snowpack will affect both surface water availability and groundwater resources, increasing pressure on water resources (12).
A decrease in peak streamflow has been observed in Wyoming, which is a proxy for flooding; this may reduce pressure from floods, but comes with increased pressure from aridity and increased temperatures (12). Localized droughts are projected to increase by 2040 and widespread regional droughts are projected to increase by 2070 (12).
Reduced flows in the Colorado River Basin will occur due to warming, although floods and increased runoff are possible in certain locations (12). Climate effects on watersheds will be amplified by both "gradual and episodic" stressors (9).

“Projected changes in runoff vary across the Nation due to projected changes in multiple aspects of the water cycle” (1)

Figure 4.7: "Rivers and streams aggregate runoff across watersheds, and runoff integrates climate change impacts to the water cycle (Figures 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6); as a result, impacts to runoff over a watershed are commonly used as surrogates for impacts to streamflow. Under an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5), projections of annual runoff vary geographically depending on relative changes to precipitation, evapotranspiration, snow and ice, groundwater, and soil moisture. Decreases are projected in Hawai'i and parts of the Nation supplied by snow (a). Projections are not available for US-Affiliated Pacific Islands or the US Caribbean; however, given projected decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in the Caribbean, annual runoff is expected to decrease. The range between the wettest (b) and driest (c) projections illustrate the uncertainty in runoff projections. Figure credit: University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA NCEI, and CISESS NC" (1).

Soil moisture may increase in southwestern Wyoming, contrary to the rest of the NGP region (12).
Water quality will also be impacted; excess nutrient flow from agricultural and industrial runoff is "expected to be exacerbated by climate change" (13).

“Climate change threatens the quality of freshwater supplies” (3)

Figure 4.2: "Changes in ambient temperature, sea level, and rainfall (top) can create climate-related hazards, such as changes in water temperature and saltwater intrusion (middle) that can have negative impacts on water quality (bottom). Saltwater intrusion is an imminent threat to coastal and island communities dependent on groundwater for dinking water (KMs 30.1, 9.2); agricultural areas face risks to water supplies when fertilizers and pesticides are mobilized by flooding; higher temperatures are putting many areas at risk of exposure to harmful algal blooms (e.g., KM 22.2) and increases in fecal coliform bacteria; and treatment plants are challenged by sediments and debris from wildfires in their source waters (KM 6.1). Adapted from Nijhawan and Howard 2022 [CC BY 4.0]" (3).

Forest water resources are frequently tied to extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and wildfire; following fires, water quality severely decreases as runoff of sediments, metals, and other potential pollutants are discharged into downstream water sources (6, 7). Warming and changes in precipitation affect wildlife, forest ecosystems, and water availability (7).
Disproportionate impacts on water resources will be felt by Tribal and rural communities, depending on "economic sector, access to water resources, ability to irrigate, reliance on electricity, and socioeconomic status" (3, 4).

How are communities addressing these changes?

Communities in the NGP have improved monitoring systems to make more informed water management decisions (15).
The US Army Corps of Engineers, in collaboration with state climate offices, is forming a soil moisture and snowpack monitoring network to increase data availability (15).
The Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) may implement a demand-management program in some NGP states that would compensate users for voluntarily reducing water consumption (15). The excess water would be "stored in federal reservoirs and released [elsewhere] when needed" (15).
Watershed and irrigation groups are considering collaborative strategies to share water management and manage water resources for a variety of needs (15).
Nature-based solutions (NBSs), or “ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptation opportunities,” are another pathway for adapting management practices to climate change; when NBSs are “managed in collaboration with affected communities and… local knowledge,” these can be effective solutions for addressing multiple management goals in an inclusive, cost-effective method (10). Ecosystem-based adaptations, a type of NBS, have been used in solutions such as “protecting and restoring floodplains to help reduce flood impacts or helping farmers cope with drought through soil conservation measures” (10).
Trade-offs will be necessary as climate change affects available water resources; for example, communities in the Northern Great Plains will need to move towards “water-conservative and nutrient-retentive land cover” (14).

Sources

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