According to the NCA5, Kansas is part of the Southern Great Plains region. 

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Southern Great Plains related to Water, Precipitation, and Drought. 

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends. 

Summary

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) consists of twenty distinct ecoregions, including forests, grasslands, rangelands, croplands, and more (10). The SGP experiences some of the United States’ worst water shortages, and water is not evenly available across locations and demographics (10). Historical and ongoing systemic factors cause an unequal distribution of water resources and a burden of extreme impacts for the following communities: rural residents, Indigenous populations, people of color, disabled and/ or elderly people, LGBTQIA+ people, immigrants, and unhoused people (14). These communities are likely to lack “adequate weatherization, air conditioning, structural resistance [or shelter]… and adequate shade and/or green spaces” (14). 

Overall, annual precipitation has increased across Kansas; precipitation is lower in the western SGP region and significantly increases on the eastern border (10). 

“The frequency of days with precipitation of 2 inches or more has increased across the Southern Great Plains” (10)

Figure 26.1: "These graphs show the annual number of days (colored bars) with daily precipitation of 2 inches or more from 1900 to 2021 in (a) western Kansas (28% increase for the long-term, linear trend), (b) eastern Kansas (38% increase), (c) western Oklahoma (31% increase), (d) eastern Oklahoma (46% increase), (e) western Texas (9% increase), and (f) eastern Texas (20% increase). (Station data were unavailable for 1900 and 1901 in western Texas.) Solid black lines show five-year averages; dashed black lines denote the 1900-2021 trend. The number of days has been highly variable from year to year, with fewer 2-inch events in the west (gold bars) on average than in the east (green bars; divided at 97.5 degrees west, near Wichita, Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, and Corpus Christi). Days with precipitation of 2 inches or more have increased in all six regions. Figure credit: NOAA NCEI and CISESS NC" (10).

Sources and quality of water are in question due to changes in precipitation and temperature; for example, transient wetlands in the western SGP are essential for irrigation, livestock, and ecological diversity (10). These wetlands are threatened by high rates of evaporation or nutrient-rich runoff from floods (10). Other essential sources of water include groundwater and aquifers, which are threatened by “increasing air and water temperatures, more frequent and severe drought, more intense rainfall events, and changes in rainfall frequency and timing” (15). 

Annual average temperatures in Kansas have increased from 1.5 F from 1900-2020, and the Southern Great Plains are expected to increase to “historically unprecedented” levels (10). 

“Air temperatures for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are projected to be historically unprecedented by the end of the century” (10, Figure 26.2).

Figure 26.2: "These graphs show observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901 to 1960 average; thick black line) in near-surface air temperature for (a) Kansas, (b) Oklahoma, and (c) Texas. Annual average temperature observations (orange line) are plotted with the range of temperatures from climate model output (light gray shading) for the historical period. The overlap of observed and modeled temperatures indicates that the models represent the region's climate reasonably well. Climate projections out to 2100 use an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5; green shading) and a very high scenario (RCP8.5; red shading), showing a range of possible future temperatures. Results from both scenarios indicate substantial warming in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by midcentury and historically unprecedented warming by the end of the century. (a, b) Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022 and Franskon et al 2022; (c) adapted from Runkle et al. 2022" (10).

The number of extremely hot days will increase, while the number of extremely cold days will decrease (10). Additionally, the Southern Great Plains will experience increased intensity and duration of water shortages (10). Specific impacts include: 

• Urban-area floods: Increased precipitation leads to increased runoff from impervious surfaces, such as parking lots and roofs, leading to increased flood risks for developing cities (11). 

Water resources for agriculture: The widespread increase in temperatures will result in more frequent and intense droughts, causing an increased need for irrigation (2). As water resources are put under pressure, communities that rely on agriculture may experience economic impacts (2, 9). At the same time, intensive agriculture can reduce the “water-holding capacity of soils and increase runoff,” resulting in large-scale and repetitive damages from floods (3). Further, runoff from agricultural land can cause a decrease in nearby water quality due to excess nutrients from fertilizers (3). For more information, see the tool output for “Kansas” + “Agriculture and Land Use.”

“Climate change may cause both increases and decreases in inland flooding, depending on the location and time of year” (1)

Figure 4.8: "Inland floods result from combinations of factors, primarily extreme rainfall, soil moisture, and snowpack and snowmelt conditions. Each of these are subject to substantial variability and change across a wide range of timescales, from daily to decadal, in a warming climate. Scientific confidence in how the climate drivers of flooding will change is higher than in how those drivers will combine to affect floods in particular locations and seasons. Adapted from Yu et al. 2020 [CC BY-NC 4.0]" (1).

• Increase in water-related illnesses, both from poor water quality and from vector-borne illnesses; high temperatures and precipitation extend ranges and lengthen active seasons of mosquitoes and ticks, which can carry disease (Ch26.1). The western SGP will experience an “increased incidence of Valley fever” (11).
• Outdoor workers’ health and productivity: Increases in temperature and precipitation lead to an increase in heat-related illnesses, along with inflated product costs and disrupted supply chains (12). 
• Recreation impacted by extreme heat and precipitation: Lakes, streams, and reservoirs have been affected by variable precipitation, affecting fishing opportunities; further, warming temperatures and increased precipitation will shift wildlife habitats and species ranges of various prey species, impacting hunting opportunities (13). 
• Water availability from forests: Western Kansas receives 0-10% of its surface water from forested lands, while the amount is higher in eastern Kansas at 11-25%; forests are also a source of water storage (7). Increased temperatures and precipitation affect forest structure, which will impact forest effects on water availability (6). 
• Large-scale effects on watersheds: There are many impacts on water availability and quality in watersheds of the Southern Great Plains (see Figure 8.4 below). 

“Climate effects on watersheds exemplify the amplifying impacts of gradual and episodic stressors” (8)

Figure 8.4: "Both gradual and episodic (short-lived) climatic drivers alter the transport of water, nutrients, and sediments from terrestrial watersheds to downstream water bodies. These drivers affect aquatic ecology and ecosystem services throughout the hydrological system, even in areas distant from drivers of change (e.g., more intense rainfall leading to leaching of fertilizers that stimulate harmful algal blooms downstream). The frequency and intensity of episodic extreme events is projected to increase (KM 2.2), raising risks for many species (Figure 8.10). Figure credit: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies" (8).  

How are communities addressing these changes?

• Tribes of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa led efforts to establish a drought early warning system that focuses “on more than 20 drought-related indicators, including precipitation, soil moisture, fire danger indices, and evapotranspiration” (14). 
• Kansas’ Sheridan and Thomas Counties have self-imposed water restrictions that reduced water use from irrigation by 26% with no impacts to crop acreage; self-imposed restrictions such as these are options for communities to conserve water while exploring “more efficient irrigation technologies and management practices” (12). 
• Indigenous advocates for Tribal data sovereignty are helping Tribes design climate impact assessments and resilience plans (4). However, Tribes still face barriers in accessing data about their lands as “streamflow, temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and soil moisture [data] are not always available through federal information sources” (4). 

“Resilience actions can help alleviate harmful consequences to communities of more frequent or severe drought” (11)

Figure 26.4: "The increasing frequency or severity of drought has negative impacts on lands and waters across the Southern Great Plains, including reduced crop and livestock production, shortages of drinking water, increased stress on ecosystems, and deterioration of air and drinking water quality. The example adaptation and mitigation actions can increase resilience and reduce negative impacts" (11).