According to the NCA5, Kansas is part of the Southern Great Plains region. 

Here are applicable Key Messages for the Southern Great Plains related to Agriculture and Land Use. 

Key: blue highlight = historical trends, yellow highlight = projected trends, and green highlight = both historical and projected trends. 

Summary

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) consists of twenty distinct ecoregions, including forests, grasslands, rangelands, croplands, and more (15). Rural communities in this region support agriculture, fiber production, energy industries, and recreation (15). 

Annual average temperatures in Kansas have increased from 1.5 F from 1900-2020, and the Southern Great Plains are expected to increase to “historically unprecedented” levels (15). The number of extremely hot days will increase, while the number of extremely cold days will decrease (15). 

“Air temperatures for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are projected to be historically unprecedented by the end of the century” (15)

Figure 26.2: "These graphs show observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901-1960 average; thick black line) in near-surface air temperature for (a) Kansas, (b) Oklahoma, and (c) Texas. Annual average temperature observations (orange line) are plotted with the range of temperatures from climate model output (light gray shading) for the historical period. The overlap of observed and modeled temperatures indicates that the models represent the region's climate reasonably well. Climate projections out to 2100 use an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5; green shading) and a very high scenario (RCP8.5; red shading), showing a range of possible future temperatures. Results from both scenarios indicate substantial warming in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by midcentury and historically unprecedented warming by the end of the century. (a, b) Adapted from Frankson et al. 2022 and Frankson et al. 2022; (c) adapted from Runkle et al. 2022" (15).

Additionally, annual precipitation has increased across Kansas; precipitation is lower in the western SGP region and significantly increases on the eastern border (15). 

“Slightly drier conditions are projected for much of the western and southern portions of the region by the end of the century” (17)

Figure 26.10: "In the future, drier conditions threaten agriculture and water supplies in parts of the Southern Great Plains (brown), while more precipitation is projected near the northern and eastern boundaries of the region (green). Under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 4% or more (as compared to the 1991-2020 average) in southern Texas by midcentury (a), with smaller differences expected by century's end (b). Under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5), annual precipitation is projected to decline slightly in western portions of the region by midcentury (c) and by 4% or more in southeast and far northwest Texas by the century's end (d)" (17).

These factors will have severe impacts on agriculture and land use across the region, including “loss of livestock and crops, reduced income, and negative public health outcomes;” for example, compound events that combine “hot, dry, and windy conditions have increased in southwest Kansas… reducing wheat yields proportionally” to the number of these events (17). Other specific impacts include: 

• Sources and quality of water are in question due to changes in precipitation and temperature; for example, transient wetlands in the western SGP are essential for irrigation, livestock, and ecological diversity (15). These wetlands are threatened by high rates of evaporation or nutrient-rich runoff from floods (15). Other essential sources of water include groundwater and aquifers, which are threatened by “increasing air and water temperatures, more frequent and severe drought, more intense rainfall events, and changes in rainfall frequency and timing” (19). Changes to water quality will result in exposure to pathogens and pollutants, particularly for “older adults, children, and residents of low-income neighborhoods and rural areas” (3). 
• Water shortages are projected to increase in intensity and duration, and water is not evenly available across locations and demographics (15). 
• Evapotranspiration, or evaporated and transpired water from the environment, is an important factor in water availability and greatly affects irrigation water demand (2). Actual evapotranspiration is projected to decrease in the Southern Great Plains as a result of increasing aridity (2). 
• Land use change and land fragmentation have led to an increase in invasive species; both rangeland and grasslands are contending with woody plant encroachment due to changes in precipitation or fire suppression (16). 
• Renewable energy production is shifting land use, with the Southern Great Plains region as a whole accounting for 42% of the United States’ wind-generated power (17). New wind installations support local tax bases, provide funding for local services, and create infrastructure (17). Wind turbine productivity in western Kansas, specifically, is “projected to increase with climate change because of a more stable low-level jet stream - a regional atmospheric feature that generates strong winds at turbine height, particularly at night during spring and summer” (17). 

“The Southern Great Plains contributes a large share to total US wind-generated electricity” (17)

Figure 26.6: "US producers in the 50 states generated 435 million megawatt-hours of electricity from wind power in 2022. Together, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas contributed 159 million megawatt-hours, or 42% of total US production. Data were not available for the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands or the US Caribbean" (17)

• Longer growing seasons are occurring due to warmer average temperatures, affecting a variety of species differently; potential impacts include the disruption of “the long-term natural connection between plants and their pollinators or between insects and their predators” (17). 
• Plant hardiness zones are shifting northward due to warming winter temperatures (17). 
• As both temperatures and aridity increase, vegetation water needs are projected to increase as well (increasing the climatic water deficit, a measure of water availability related to vegetation requirements) (2). 
• In western Kansas, the potential for bud burst before the last freeze is projected to increase due to a “combination of cold fronts and earlier springs;” this will cause “plant-leaf and wood-tissue damage” (17). 

“The risk of plant bud burst before the last freeze is projected to increase for the northern portion of the Southern Great Plains. The risk decreases for the southern portion of the region” (17)

Figure 26.9: "Freezing temperatures after plants begin growth in spring (late false spring) can damage crops and nursery plants. Risk of a late false spring is projected to increase in northern parts of the Southern Great Plains by the end of the century (2071-2100) as compared to the 1991-2020 average. The risk of late false springs increases by up to 20% across most of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas under an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5; panel a) and across most of Kansas, the Texas Panhandle, and parts of Oklahoma under a very high scenario (SSP5-8.5; panel b). Risk decreases for the remainder of the region, especially in southern and far western Texas under a very high scenario" (17).

• Lowered crop productivity and increasing irrigation costs due to drier conditions and increased drought (17). 
• Impacts of drought and high temperatures on livestock include increased demands for feeding, risks to animal health, and reduced “capacity of native rangelands and planted pastures to support livestock” (17). These impacts have already been observed in events such as Kansas’ June 2022 heatwave that resulted in the deaths of thousands of cattle (17). 
• Traditional and cultural practices have been impacted by the changing climate as ranges of culturally significant species shift, affecting Indigenous peoples, cultures, and communities (16). 
• Outdoor workers’ health and productivity: Increase in temperatures and precipitation leads to an increase in heat-related illnesses, along with inflated product costs and disrupted supply chains (17). 
• Impacts to health and physical activity: Residents of the Southern Great Plains have been affected by climate extremes that increase their risk of severe or fatal health issues (18). Due to this risk, people have been less inclined to participate in physical and outdoor activities, particularly for older adults and individuals with a chronic disease or high body mass index (18). Barriers to physical activities, such as team sports, are also increased for low-income adults and families due to increasing participation costs exacerbated by climate impacts (18).

“Climate change is expected to affect many outdoor sports, recreational, and leisure activities” (18).

Figure 26.12: "Outdoor sports, recreational, and leisure activities for people of all ages are being affected by climate extremes. Heavy rainfall, poor air quality, and extreme heat are expected to increase with climate change. These stressors impair athletic performance, damage sports facilities, and alter landscapes for recreation and tourism" (18).

How are communities addressing these changes?

• The Tribal Alliance for Pollinators is working to preserve and restore grasslands for threatened pollinators, building on Indigenous “cultural and medicinal traditions” (16). 
• Kansas’ Sheridan and Thomas Counties have self-imposed water restrictions that reduced water use from irrigation by 26% with no impacts to crop acreage; self-imposed restrictions such as these are options for communities to conserve water while exploring “more efficient irrigation technologies and management practices” (17). 
• Kansas Soil Health Alliance is working to “support carbon storage through soil and land stewardship” (17).