In ecosystems characterized by flowing water, such as rivers and streams, the dynamics of how the water moves - how deep it is, how fast it flows, how often it floods - have direct effects on the health, diversity, and sustainability of underlying communities. Yet increasingly, climate extremes like droughts and floods are disrupting fragile stream ecosystems by specifically changing their internal aquatic flows. Human infrastructure, such as irrigation and dams, further disrupt these dynamics. These changes in climate and land use are leading to teh fragmentation of aquatic habtiat, degraded water quality, altered sediment transport processes, variation in the timing and duration of floodplain inundation, shifts in stream and lake temperatures, and the conversion of flowing streams to lakes and wetlands. This project, termed the “Future of Aquatic Flows,” has three primary components: 1) Regional projects focused on key research questions related to the future of aquatic flows in a changing climate at each CASC region around the country;  2) A national synthesis component which will synthesize the state of the science on how aquatic changes will be impacted by climate change, and implications for ecosystems and human communities; 3) A training component for the post-doctoral researchers who participate in this cohort of the CAP Fellows program "Future of Aquatic Flows: Towards a National Synthesis" is the umbrella project for the 2022-2024 Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral (CAP) Fellows cohort. Fellows situated at each of the nine regional CASCs will work with USGS, university, and regional partners to conduct research directly applicable to regional management priorities relating to aquatic flows, and will also work with each other on a national synthesis project on the topic. More information about the Future of Aquatic Flows CAP Fellowship can be found here: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/science/2022-24-future-aquatic-flows 

Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers.  Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability.  As a result, ecosystems may be heavily altered by future changes in precipitation and soil moisture that are driven by climate change.  Although this vulnerability is well recognized, developing accurate information about the potential consequences of climate change for ecological drought is difficult because the soil moisture conditions that plants experience are shaped by complex interactions among weather, atmospheric CO2, plants and soils. There are currently very few ecologically appropriate datasets about future drought with widespread distribution at resolutions suitable for informing natural resource decision making.  This project will meet some of those needs by simulating complex interactions that affect soil moisture availability to plants and generating user-relevant soil moisture projections.  Results will include detailed and synthesized drought information for the 21st century across the entire contiguous U.S. that are delivered via the Climate Toolbox, an established source for long-term climate projections. Data provided by this project will be useful for a wide variety of applications including scenario planning, species distribution models, and ecological drought and habitat vulnerability assessments.  

Project Overview   Infectious disease poses a growing threat to wildlife and human health, and managing disease threats is complicated by climatic changes that can change levels of disease risk. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will co-develop a method to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change, providing critical useable information to Montana’s wildlife managers. This information will be used to proactively manage infectious wildlife diseases and will be integrated into management planning documents, like the State Wildlife Action Plan. Project Summary   Infectious disease is a pressing concern for wildlife conservation and human health. Natural resource managers face a wide range of potential disease threats, but often have little information about effective management strategies or about various levels of potential risk. Climate change further complicates this challenge by rapidly shifting disease risk and introducing new threats. To prioritize limited resources, managers need clear, accessible information on how climate impacts wildlife diseases. Stakeholders in the North Central region (including partners at Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks) have communicated this need for a better understanding of climate change impacts on wildlife disease and have requested scientific support to help compile and integrate this information into key management documents like State Wildlife Action Plans. This project seeks to co-develop an approach to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change and apply this approach to identify high-priority threats for imperiled wildlife and aquatic species in Montana. The approach will combine existing scientific research with strong user engagement. A major outcome of the project will be integrating climate and disease information into Montana’s revised State Wildlife Action Plan, enabling the state to receive funding for and take on-the-ground actions targeting infectious disease impacts on wildlife. Understanding future disease threats under climate change is critical for implementing proactive management strategies that effectively limit disease spread. This project will also generate broadly relevant information on the management of novel disease threats under a changing climate, helping to better integrate disease management into climate adaptation science.

Project Overview The iconic grizzly bear of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has exhibited a remarkable recovery in response to concerted conservation actions implemented since its listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1975. However, information regarding the potential effects and timing of climate change in conjunction with increasing human recreation and development will be important for future management of this population. Investigating these potential impacts and providing manager with a range of actionable options to mitigate their effects is the goal of this study. Researchers supported by this North Central project will use grizzly bear demographic and climate data to collaboratively develop an adaptive decision framework with park managers to evaluate demographic response of grizzly bears under different climate and human use scenarios. The decision framework can be adapted to other species and ecosystems and used by resource managers to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wildlife in the region. Project Summary The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is home to most of North America's large mammal species, but climate change, continued land development, and other human activities may threaten the diverse wildlife in the ecosystem. Among the region’s iconic species, the grizzly bear draws visitors from across the globe. Grizzly bears in the lower 48 states are listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and they live a long time and reproduce slowly, which make populations especially vulnerable to even small changes in demographic rates prompted by changes in habitat and food resources, human activities, and climate change. Understanding how these factors influence grizzly bears is necessary to mitigate impacts to the viability of this species for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of current and future generations. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop “Best Management Practices” that will optimize the future viability of grizzly bears as they respond to a rapidly changing ecosystem. Three national park units in the region (Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and the John D. Rockefeller, Jr. Memorial Parkway) serve as important refugia for grizzly bears and other wildlife. This project will inform resource management decisions across the three national parks for this iconic species by developing an adaptive decision framework built from extensive grizzly bear population data and climate assessments. This approach will allow the project team to predict future scenarios and identify potential population tipping points.   Multiple workshops with managers will be held to review scientific findings and co-produce the decision analysis, which will be transferable to other species, ecosystems, and resource management agencies. The output from this project can be used by National Park Service and other resource managers to address potential climate change and human impacts on iconic wildlife populations of this ecosystem.

Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic conditions to help optimize management strategies of wildlife and cattle. Project Summary Prairie dogs are crucial to North America’s Central Grasslands, creating habitat for other wildlife by digging burrows and clipping vegetation, and serving as a key food source for many predators. However, the sylvatic plague, a non-native disease with over 99% mortality in prairie dogs leads to sudden population die-offs followed by several years of recovery. While wildlife that depend on prairie dogs for food and habitat are negatively affected when populations collapse, the recovery period can cause conflicts with livestock producers, as prairie dogs decrease the available vegetation for grazing cattle. Researchers supported by this project will create an interactive web-based tool that can be used by managers and stakeholders for decision support, as the tool predicts where and when prairie dog colony growth and collapses are likely to occur under changing climatic conditions. This should allow managers to strategically reduce the likelihood of undesirable outcomes for wildlife and livestock. Additionally, the interactive tool will help users determine the best management approaches to achieve their specific goals and will evaluate different management strategies with a cost analysis assessment. This project will involve a diverse group of stakeholders from state and federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, and Tribal Nations to co-produce the tool. A decision support tool is much needed to facilitate co-existence of the prairie dog ecosystem with local communities and livestock producers, especially under an increasingly uncertain and changing climate.

Human fossil fuel use and agricultural practices have increased atmospheric nitrogen deposits (e.g., through snow and rain) to mountain ecosystems. This, along with increasing measurable climate warming is affecting soil and water acidity and altering nutrient balances. In this project, North Central CASC-supported researchers will analyze decades of unexplored data, including surface water chemistry from the Loch Vale watershed in Rocky Mountain National Park and other long-term data from Colorado and Wyoming, to understand climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition impacts on high-elevation ecosystems. Synthesis workshops with resource management partners will be held to apply the data products and new knowledge to frame future conditions and management options for these mountain ecosystems. Climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition are rapidly altering the ecology and biogeochemistry of mountain ecosystems worldwide. In the US, nearly all high elevation ecosystems are on public lands that are managed federally (e.g., National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, and Bureau of Land Management) or by states and tribes. Changes to ecological processes and species’ assemblages that began in the mid-20th century are continuing at accelerated rates, especially in high-elevation lakes, forests, and the alpine. This work will augment and extend research supported by the USGS Climate Research & Development program for the project “Interpreting the impact of global change on alpine and subalpine ecosystems – synthesizing legacy data to provide scientific and management insight for Rocky Mountain National Park and beyond.” Long-term research by this project team in Loch Vale watershed in Rocky Mountain National Park has been foundational for guiding public policy in Colorado and informing resource management in the park. While many products (a book, more than 120 papers and 22 graduate projects) have shared knowledge and insight on ecosystem processes related to climate and nutrient impacts in the area, a vast amount of data are still unpublished and unexplored. This project will evaluate past patterns of surface water chemistry and ecosystem processes using a legacy of long-term data in Loch Value watershed (from 1983) and Green Lakes Valley (from 1968). The project team will also initiate discussions and host a synthesis workshop with the North Central CASC and natural resource management partners to apply the knowledge gained from the legacy data to help frame potential future conditions and management options for alpine and subalpine ecosystems. 

Project Overview Climate change has reduced the amount of water stored in snowpacks and altered avalanche risks in mountainous areas of western North America. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop tools for predicting and managing future water resources and future avalanche patterns, particularly in areas of major transportation corridors and important habitats. Results from this project will help federal, tribal, and state agencies manage snow water resources and mitigate avalanche hazards across temporal and spatial scales. Project Summary Climate change is profoundly affecting seasonal snowpack, with implications for water resources and water-related hazards like avalanches. Since 1950, the amount of water stored in snowpacks in western North America has decreased substantially because of declining winter precipitation and earlier snowmelt. These climatic changes also affect the frequency and magnitude of snow avalanches, which are dangerous to people, infrastructure, and mountain ecosystems. However, predicting future water resources and avalanche frequency is a challenge, as previous research from this project team demonstrates that avalanches are driven by complex interactions between weather, climate, and snowpack structure. This project has two distinct components related to snow as a water resource and a hazard. The first component addresses tribal partner needs for better tools for predicting and managing water resources and encompasses high-resolution snowpack data at a drainage scale. The second component focuses on snow as a hazard, addressing how changes to snowpack properties will impact future avalanche frequency and magnitude across the western United States. These research goals will help project team develop better tools for partners and stakeholders to address climate change impacts on snow and build more resilient communities. Understanding future changes in snowpack properties and avalanche behavior, including a shift in avalanche regime from cold and dry to warm and wet, can help managers predict and adapt to new water storage and avalanche patterns. Results from this project will provide valuable data for federal, tribal, and state management of snow water resources and avalanche mitigation.

As climate change progresses, profound environmental changes are becoming a widespread concern. A new management paradigm is developing to address this concern with a framework that encourages strategic decisions to resist, accept, or direct ecological trajectories. Effective use of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework requires the scientific community to describe the range of plausible ecological conditions managers might face, while recognizing limits to our ability to predict precisely where or how specific climatic changes may unfold or how complex environmental systems will respond - the climatic future does not fully determine the ecological one. Recent advances have improved development and delivery of climate futures (summaries of climate conditions for each climate model projection), but approaches for creating and working with a range of ecological scenarios for each climate future do not yet exist. This project will develop potential approaches for crafting ecological scenarios, i.e., storylines designed to capture the range of plausible ecological responses to climate change. Researcher propose to synthesize and compare typical approaches for estimating ecological responses to climate change, consider extensions that allow for multiple ecological community or biome types under each climatic scenario, and develop approaches for “winnowing” a large set of plausible ecological scenarios into a workable, representative set.

Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations in the technical capabilities of managers that may not have the experience or resources to use complex or expensive models, or the limitations of the models themselves. This project will provide a state of the science on low flow hydrological modeling that can be used to address management decisions specific to low flow hydrology, drought, and impacts from climate change. Specifically, through a worshop series, this project will 1) detail the decisions that managers must make related to low flow hydrology, drought, and climate change, 2) provide an inventory of appropriate hydrological models and model output that align to case-by-case decision making, and 3) identify areas for model improvements to address gaps, limitations, and uncertainties. A synthesis that summarizes and aligns hydrological models to the appropriate management decisions is expected to support more informed decision making and better outcomes as a result of more efficient and effective model application.

As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of these species and the cultural implications for the Tribe in order to enhance food sovereignty and cultural resiliency, improve tribal health, and maintain local biodiversity.   The project will assess the presence and distribution of valued species including subalpine fir, juneberry, chokecherry, and others, while engaging the community in discussions around access and community needs. Adopting a holistic approach to climate change assessment, traditional ecological knowledge and the cultural implications of climate change will be an integral and innovative aspect of the project. Community meetings, elder interviews, and youth engagement sessions will contribute to understanding the interconnected issues of protecting significant species and culture in their full complexity. Scenarios of future climate change impacts on the plant species and the community will be explored to inform planning and management decisions and the Fort Belknap Indian Community Climate Adaptation Plan.