Federal land managers need an adaptive management framework to accommodate changing conditions and that allows them to effectively link the appropriate science to natural resource management decision-making across jurisdictional boundaries. FRAME-SIMPPLLE is a collaborative modeling process designed to accomplish this goal by coupling the adaptive capabilities of the SIMPPLLE modeling system with accepted principles of collaboration. The two essential components of the process are FRAME (Framing Research in support of the Adaptive Management of Ecosystems), which creates a collaborative problem-solving environment, and SIMPPLLE (SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales), which is a vegetation dynamics modeling system. The resulting collaborative modeling process allows decision makers to optimize the management of multiple resources and evaluate the likely outcome of various choices. The approach involves collaboratively engaging resource managers, modelers, and scientists in framing the science issues embedded in key natural resource management issues and then developing the SIMPPLLE modeling approach to address those issues. Through a prototype collaborative modeling effort at Mesa Verde National Park, a process has been developed for adaptive, multi-objective resource management. What is needed now is an effort to refine the approach and establish a transportable methodology that is applicable across a wide range of ecosystems. In the Northern Rockies, managers have expressed an interest in exploring this approach at Glacier National Park, the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, and the Rocky Mountain Front. This project utilized and evaluated the FRAME-SIMPPLLE approach to (1) explore adaptive management for climate and landscape change in the Northern Rockies, (2) recommend how to foster the long-term development of such collaborative planning tools as a joint effort between the USGS and the Institute of the Environment; (3) develop graduate student mentoring opportunities focused on collaborative planning and adaptive management science, and (4) investigate the use of GIS to further landscape science and conservation, especially related to energy development.

The North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) involved federal, state, tribal, and university partners to implement a pilot study aimed at developing data and information exchange protocols and identifying analytical needs across a broad network of partners. The study was organized around a set of management questions identified by the NC CSC’s partners. Issues related to species, landscapes, and ecosystem connections were used to orient the study across various scales of decision-making.   As part of the study, researchers prototyped the use of climate projections in ecosystem, habitat, and wildlife impact models, to inform resource management and planning decisions. Capabilities and constraints associated with information exchange and analysis between federal and non-federal partners were then assessed.   This study resulted in the development of an innovative platform geared towards user-friendly information exchange and analysis, providing new views of data critical to supporting researchers and decision-makers in analyzing climate-associated risk events and mitigating their effects.    

Colorado State University organized and hosted a workshop aimed at developing an information technology framework for data integration related to climate change impacts on ecosystems and landscape conservation. The workshop included key federal and state agency partners, tribal governments, and universities. The objective of the workshop was to develop an information technology strategy to handle the various data, information, and computational services which the eight regional DOI Climate Science Centers will be responsible for delivering to stakeholders.   Issues covered during the workshop included distributed computing and data storage; information security issues across federal, state, university, and public portals; analysis across multiple scales and sectors; and exchanging information to multiple user communities. The workshop was charged with developing a framework that could serve the needs of the regional Climate Science Centers, which include local to regional, cross-regional, and national level considerations. The workshop also provided guidance for a pilot study focused on evaluating the current and future capacity to analyze, archive, and distribute information across various information technology infrastructure types.

Climate affects both the demographics of the Greater sage-grouse bird and the condition and long-term viability of their habitats, including sage-steppe communities. This project builds on collaboration among federal land managers, state wildlife biologists, scientists, and other organizations to create a long-term framework for implementing adaptive management for the sage-grouse. The study examined factors that might be limiting grouse numbers and will investigate components of weather patterns in relation to projected climate change models. Precipitation and temperature, as well as variables such as evaporation and soil moisture, will be considered. Overall, the project focused on (1) providing workshops to foster collaboration and interpretation of climate information, (2) developing a sage-steppe habitat map, and (3) suggesting recommendations for an adaptive management framework. 

Climate scientists need more and better information about the needs of decision-makers and managers, while decision-makers need better information about how a changing climate may affect their management and conservation objectives. The goal of this project was to build connections between the Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PPP-LCC), the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction and Projection Pilot Platform (NCPP) to facilitate a link between the users and producers of climate information, as well as to identify gaps between available and desired data. This project developed a conceptual model of the interactions between climate change, land use change, and conservation and adaptation in the Plains and Prairie Potholes (PPR) region of the North Central U.S. Relating climate variations to the prevailing land use and socioeconomic issues in the region helped to produce a framework enabling climate scientists to guide managers towards currently available and useful climate information and to design future research to address remaining key uncertainties affecting conservation decisions in the region.

Managers already face uncertainty when making decisions about how to best manage natural resources. Now, climate change is adding an additional level of complexity to resource management decisions. Understanding the ability of human and ecological communities to adapt to changing conditions (known as their adaptive capacity) is an integral component of effective management planning in the face of climate change. So too is identifying ways in which managers can better incorporate information on climate and the vulnerability of resources into their decision-making.   This project sought to improve decision-making in the North Central region by developing an approach to managing natural resources that acknowledges the uncertainties that exist and incorporates the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of resources to climate change. To meet this goal, researchers assessed (1) the key factors that affect the ability of human and ecological communities to adapt to climate change; (2) the current vulnerability of communities to changing conditions; and (3) the current risk assessment methodologies being used by managers in the region. The results of this project can help improve natural resource management decisions under changing climate conditions.

The goal of this project was to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy” based on climate science and ecological forecasting. Project objectives were to: 1. Forecast ecosystem processes and WBP habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) under alternative IPCC future scenarios; 2. Improve understanding of possible response to future climate by analyzing WBP/climate relationships in past millennia; 3. Develop WBP management alternatives; 4. Evaluate the alternatives under IPCC future scenarios in terms of WBP goals, ecosystem services, and costs of implementation; and 5. Draw recommendations for implementation of the GYCC WBP strategy that consider uncertainty. Recommendations were derived in a scenario planning workshop based on both the results and uncertainty in the results. These recommendations are expected to thus be immediately acted upon by the GYA management community and the approach and methods are readily applicable to the several other tree species that are undergoing die-offs under changing climate. 

Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions.   In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project sought to help decision-makers develop strategies to reduce climate change impacts on people and nature. Scientists, land managers, and local communities worked together to identify actions that can be taken to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Known as “adaptation strategies”, these actions are an essential component of effective planning under shifting climate conditions. To facilitate the planning process, researchers aimed to provide information on the vulnerability of ecosystems, model plausible future climate conditions, and identify the social contexts in which adaptation decisions are made.   The project focused on the San Juan and upper Gunnison river basins of southwestern Colorado, though the goal was to develop an adaptation toolkit that can be applied to other landscapes. By identifying appropriate adaptation actions, this project was designed to help improve the resilience of local communities and ecosystems in the face of an uncertain future. Learn more about how this project is progressing in its second phase: Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2

Climate change is poised to alter natural systems, the frequency of extreme weather, and human health and livelihoods. In order to effectively prepare for and respond to these challenges in the north-central region of the U.S., people must have the knowledge and tools to develop plans and adaptation strategies. The objective of this project was to build stakeholders’ capacity to respond to climate change in the north-central U.S., filling in gaps not covered by other projects in the region. During the course of this project, researchers focused on three major activities:   Tribal Capacity Building: Researchers provided tribal colleges and universities with mini-grants to develop student projects to document climate-related changes in weather and culturally or traditionally significant plants. These efforts, carried out in collaboration with other organizations, contributed to building the Indigenous Geography Phenology Network, a locally grounded, national network for documenting the impacts of climate change on plants and animals. Researchers also helped the Intertribal Council On Utility Policy determine how climate science could be integrated into management decisions in the resource-rich Missouri River Basin.   Climate Training for Resource Managers: Researchers offered two climate change vulnerability assessment courses – one in Jackson, Wyoming and another in La Crosse, Wisconsin – designed to build the knowledge and skills of resource managers. Additional trainings on climate-smart conservation are being planned.   PhenoCam Deployment: Researchers co-supported the deployment of PhenoCams (streaming cameras) in locations throughout Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Observations collected by the PhenoCams will help scientists track seasonal changes across the region and better understand how climate impacts living things.

The north-central region of the U.S. has experienced a series of extreme droughts in recent years, with impacts felt across a range of sectors. For example, the impacts of a 2002 drought are estimated to have resulted in a $3 billion loss to the agricultural sector in Nebraska and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ecological impacts of drought in the region have included increased tree mortality, surges in the outbreak of pests, and intensifying forest fires.   Located within this region is the Missouri River Basin, an important agricultural production area home to approximately 12 million people, including 28 Native American tribes. Tribal governments and multiple federal agencies manage land and natural resources in the drought-impacted Basin. The goal of this project was to understand how federal and tribal natural resource managers experience and deal with drought in this landscape. To do this, researchers documented how managers perceive drought impacts, how their decisions are affected by these perceptions, and their capacity to respond to and prepare for drought.   This information is expected to enable researchers to determine the types of climate data and tools that will help managers operating under drought conditions. Locally-specific “drought stories” are being developed, detailing historic trends and future projections of drought, as well as the risk perceptions, decisions, and adaptive capacities of local managers. Understanding the different perceptions and impacts of drought felt by managers can help provide a foundation for fostering more collective resource management across the region in the face of future drought. This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.