Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife, 2) estimate how wildlife species of concern are expected to respond to these changes, 3) develop climate-smart strategies to help stakeholders manage public and private lands in ways that allow wildlife to continue to move in response to changing conditions, and 4) explore how well existing management plans and conservation efforts are expected to support crucial connections for wildlife under climate change. We assessed vulnerability of eight wildlife species and four biomes to climate change, with a focus on potential impacts to connectivity. Our assessment provides some insights about where these species and biomes may be most vulnerable or most resilient to loss of connectivity and how this information could support climate-smart management action. We also encountered high levels of uncertainty in how climate change is expected to alter vegetation and how wildlife are expected to respond to these changes. This uncertainty limits the value of our assessment for informing proactive management of climate change impacts on both species-specific and biome-level connectivity (although biome-level assessments were subject to fewer sources of uncertainty). We offer suggestions for improving the management relevance of future studies based on our own insights and those of managers and biologists who participated in this assessment and provided critical review of this report.

Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife, 2) estimate how wildlife species of concern are expected to respond to these changes, 3) develop climate-smart strategies to help stakeholders manage public and private lands in ways that allow wildlife to continue to move in response to changing conditions, and 4) explore how well existing management plans and conservation efforts are expected to support crucial connections for wildlife under climate change. We assessed vulnerability of eight wildlife species and four biomes to climate change, with a focus on potential impacts to connectivity. Our assessment provides some insights about where these species and biomes may be most vulnerable or most resilient to loss of connectivity and how this information could support climate-smart management action. We also encountered high levels of uncertainty in how climate change is expected to alter vegetation and how wildlife are expected to respond to these changes. This uncertainty limits the value of our assessment for informing proactive management of climate change impacts on both species-specific and biome-level connectivity (although biome-level assessments were subject to fewer sources of uncertainty). We offer suggestions for improving the management relevance of future studies based on our own insights and those of managers and biologists who participated in this assessment and provided critical review of this report.

Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1590/full): Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based water balance model (SOILWAT) for 898 big sagebrush sites using site- and scenario-specific inputs. We summarize changes in available soil water (ASW) and dry days, as these ecohydrological variables may be helpful in guiding land management decisions about where to geographically concentrate climate change mitigation and adaptation resources. Our results suggest that during spring, soils will be wetter in the future across the western United States, while soils will be drier in the summer. The magnitude of those predictions differed depending on geographic position and the ecosystem in question: Larger increases in mean daily spring ASW were expected for high-elevation SB-Montane sites and the eastern and central portions of our study area. The largest decreases in mean daily summer ASW were projected for warm, dry, mid-elevation SB-Montane sites in the central and west-central portions of our study area (decreases of up to 50%). Consistent with declining summer ASW, the number of dry days was projected to increase rangewide, but particularly for SB-Montane and SB-Steppe sites in the eastern and northern regions. Collectively, these results suggest that most sites will be drier in the future during the summer, but changes were especially large for mid- to high-elevation sites in the northern half of our study area. Drier summer conditions in high-elevation, SB-Montane sites may result in increased habitat suitability for big sagebrush, while those same changes will likely reduce habitat suitability for drier ecosystems. Our work has important implications for where land managers should prioritize resources for the conservation of North American shrub steppe plant communities and the species that depend on them.

We assessed the vulnerability of ecological processes and vegetation to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains with a focus on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that climate has warmed substantially since 1900 while precipitation has increased. An index of aridity decreased until about 1980 and then increased slightly. Projected future climate indicates warming of about 3-7 degrees C by 2100 and a substantial increase in aridity, depending on climate scenario. Snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and primary productivity are projected to decrease dramatically in summer under future climate scenarios, with snow pack and runoff declining annually. Habitat suitability for the four subalpine tree species is projected to contract dramatically while mid elevation tree species are projected to expand in area of suitable habitat. Across Greater Yellowstone, sagebrush communities are projected to expand and total forest cover is projected to decrease. The most vulnerable tree species are Whitebark pine and Mountain hemlock (found on the west-slope of the Rockies), both of which are projected to have 0-10% of current area of suitable habitat by 2100. These results represent the first comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment for the Northern Rockies and provide critical information for guiding the development and evaluation of climate adaptation strategies. 

Managing plant and wildlife species under climate change offers a substantial challenge. Federal agencies have adapted a framework for considering climate change when implementing management actions. This project was designed to demonstrate how elements of that framework, climate science, ecological forecasting, and natural resource management, can be linked to best maintain natural resources under climate change. The project focused on the whitebark pine (WBP) tree. This species occupies high mountain forests and uniquely provides foods and habitats for other species. WBP populations have undergone massive die-offs over the past decade due to pest outbreaks associated with climate warming. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), federal agencies have been working together since 1999 to develop a strategy for restoring the lost WBP forests. This project was designed to provide guidance as to how to place management treatments in the landscape to be most effective under climate change. We analyzed relationships between WBP and climate during the past 15,000 years and forecasted potential response to climate change to the year 2100. In collaboration with federal managers, we used the results to develop a management strategy to maintain a viable population of WBP in the GYE under projected future climates. Simulation modeling experiments revealed that our “climate-informed” strategy is likely to be more effective under future climates than the current federal strategy. Our federal partners are now incorporating knowledge developed in the project into a revised version of the WBP management strategy. Public surveys conducted by the project revealed a high level of public support for such restoration efforts for this climatesensitive keystone tree species. 

Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife, estimate how wildlife species of concern are expected to respond to these changes, develop climate-smart strategies to help stakeholders manage public and private lands in ways that allow wildlife to continue to move in response to changing conditions, and explore how well existing management plans and conservation efforts are expected to support crucial connections for wildlife under climate change. We assessed vulnerability of eight wildlife species and four biomes to climate change, with a focus on potential impacts to connectivity. Our assessment provides some insights about where these species and biomes may be most vulnerable or most resilient to loss of connectivity and how this information could support climate-smart management action. We also encountered high levels of uncertainty in how climate change is expected to alter vegetation and how wildlife are expected to respond to these changes. This uncertainty limits the value of our assessment for informing proactive management of climate change impacts on both species-specific and biome-level connectivity (although biome-level assessments were subject to fewer sources of uncertainty). We offer suggestions for improving the management relevance of future studies based on our own insights and those of managers and biologists who participated in this assessment and provided critical review of this report. 

The viability of the whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) species is under threat due to precipitously declining populations.  This study investigates the sources of differing levels of concern about climate-driven effects on whitebark pine trees.  It also investigates support for different Whitebark Pine (WBP) management strategies on federal public lands. 

Researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center have made substantial progress in assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on wildlife and ecosystems across the region. Building on this progress, researchers will work with stakeholders to identify adaptation strategies and inform resource management in the areas that will be most affected by changing conditions.   There are several components of this project. First, researchers will use the Department of Interior “resource briefs” as a mechanism to communicate information to resource managers on climate and land use change and their impacts to resources. These briefs will support coordinated management of ecosystems that contain public, private, and tribal lands. Researchers will also inform the development of a multi-state management plan for wolverine, a species being considered for listing, by providing forecasts of how wolverine habitat might change as climate conditions and land use change. Finally, researchers will work with federal and private resource managers in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and High Divide regions to develop management guidelines under different possible future climate conditions. This project will support resource managers throughout the North Central region in understanding how conditions might change and identifying potential climate adaptation strategies.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Ecological Impacts Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.

Locating meadow study sitesMeadow centers as recorded in the ‘Copy of sitecords_areaelev from Caruthers thesis.xls’ file delivered by Debinski in November 2012 were matched to polygons as recorded in files ‘teton97map_area.shp’ and ‘gallatin97map_area.shp’ both also delivered by Debinski in November 2012.In cases where the meadow center did not fall within a meadow polygon, if there was a meadow polygon of the same meadow TYPE nearby (judgment was used here), the meadow center was matched with the meadow polygon of same meadow TYPE. In total, 29 of 30 Gallatin meadow sites and 21 of 25 Teton meadow sites were positively located.Identifying meadow pixels for analysisThe native MODIS 250-meter grid was reprojected to match meadow data and added to the GIS project window along with the meadow polygons. For context, aerial photography from ESRI’s basemap streaming services were also added to the ArcMap project. MODIS pixels that were at least half-covered by meadow polygon area were used in further ndvi analysis. Meadows that did not cover at least half of one MODIS pixel were eliminated from the analysis. In total, 17 Gallatin meadow sites (M1= 0; M2= 0; M3= 4; M4= 4; M5= 4; M6=5), covering at least half of 39 MODIS pixels (M1= 0; M2= 0; M3= 12; M4= 4; M5= 6; M6= 17), were used in further analysis and 16 Teton meadow sites (M1=3; M2=1; M3=4; M5=5; M6=3) covering at least half of 1252 MODIS pixels (M1= 105; M2= 1; M3= 25; M4=0 ; M5= 19; M6=1102), were used in further analysis.List of site names that were located, but not used in the NDVI analysis b/c they were too small: Gallatin – Porcupine Exclosure; Twin Cabin Willows; Figure 8; Taylor Fork; Teepee Sage; Daly North; Wapiti (Taylor Fork); Specimen Creek; Bacon Rind M1; Bacon Rind M4, Teepee wet; Daly SouthTeton – Cygnet Pond; Christian Pond; Willow Flats North; Willow Flats South; Sound of MusicMODIS preprocessing methods: MODIS MOD13Q1 representing observations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from March 2000 through December 2012 were downloaded from the USGS Land Processes Distributed Area Archive Center (LPDAAC) during the spring of 2013. Also downloaded at the same time were grids that described the estimated reliability of NDVI observations and the actual day of the year for each NDVI observation used in maximum compositing routines by the MODIS program. All MODIS data layers were reprojected to match meadow data layers.