These data were used to estimate models relating climate and land cover to wetland densities and develop projections under climate and land use change. Data for model estimation were derived from historical climate data, estimates of hydrological processes based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, National Wetlands Inventory, and the National Land Cover Database. Wetland densities were based on observations from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Projected climate conditions were derived from ten Global Climate Models, and projected changes in land use were based on an economic model of the effects of climate on land use transitions. These data support the following publication: Sofaer, H. R., Skagen, S. K., Barsugli, J. J., Rashford, B. S., Reese, G. C., Hoeting, J. A., Wood, A. W. and Noon, B. R. (2016), Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy. Ecol Appl. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1890/15-0750.1.

We assessed the vulnerability of ecological processes and vegetation to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains with a focus on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that climate has warmed substantially since 1900 while precipitation has increased. An index of aridity decreased until about 1980 and then increased slightly. Projected future climate indicates warming of about 3-7 degrees C by 2100 and a substantial increase in aridity, depending on climate scenario. Snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and primary productivity are projected to decrease dramatically in summer under future climate scenarios, with snow pack and runoff declining annually. Habitat suitability for the four subalpine tree species is projected to contract dramatically while mid elevation tree species are projected to expand in area of suitable habitat. Across Greater Yellowstone, sagebrush communities are projected to expand and total forest cover is projected to decrease. The most vulnerable tree species are Whitebark pine and Mountain hemlock (found on the west-slope of the Rockies), both of which are projected to have 0-10% of current area of suitable habitat by 2100. These results represent the first comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment for the Northern Rockies and provide critical information for guiding the development and evaluation of climate adaptation strategies.

This data set provides the abiotic water balance variables used for species distribution modelings for Pinus albicaulis within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1590/full): Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based water balance model (SOILWAT) for 898 big sagebrush sites using site- and scenario-specific inputs. We summarize changes in available soil water (ASW) and dry days, as these ecohydrological variables may be helpful in guiding land management decisions about where to geographically concentrate climate change mitigation and adaptation resources. Our results suggest that during spring, soils will be wetter in the future across the western United States, while soils will be drier in the summer. The magnitude of those predictions differed depending on geographic position and the ecosystem in question: Larger increases in mean daily spring ASW were expected for high-elevation SB-Montane sites and the eastern and central portions of our study area. The largest decreases in mean daily summer ASW were projected for warm, dry, mid-elevation SB-Montane sites in the central and west-central portions of our study area (decreases of up to 50%). Consistent with declining summer ASW, the number of dry days was projected to increase rangewide, but particularly for SB-Montane and SB-Steppe sites in the eastern and northern regions. Collectively, these results suggest that most sites will be drier in the future during the summer, but changes were especially large for mid- to high-elevation sites in the northern half of our study area. Drier summer conditions in high-elevation, SB-Montane sites may result in increased habitat suitability for big sagebrush, while those same changes will likely reduce habitat suitability for drier ecosystems. Our work has important implications for where land managers should prioritize resources for the conservation of North American shrub steppe plant communities and the species that depend on them.

We assessed the vulnerability of ecological processes and vegetation to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains with a focus on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that climate has warmed substantially since 1900 while precipitation has increased. An index of aridity decreased until about 1980 and then increased slightly. Projected future climate indicates warming of about 3-7 degrees C by 2100 and a substantial increase in aridity, depending on climate scenario. Snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and primary productivity are projected to decrease dramatically in summer under future climate scenarios, with snow pack and runoff declining annually. Habitat suitability for the four subalpine tree species is projected to contract dramatically while mid elevation tree species are projected to expand in area of suitable habitat. Across Greater Yellowstone, sagebrush communities are projected to expand and total forest cover is projected to decrease. The most vulnerable tree species are Whitebark pine and Mountain hemlock (found on the west-slope of the Rockies), both of which are projected to have 0-10% of current area of suitable habitat by 2100. These results represent the first comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment for the Northern Rockies and provide critical information for guiding the development and evaluation of climate adaptation strategies. 

Managing plant and wildlife species under climate change offers a substantial challenge. Federal agencies have adapted a framework for considering climate change when implementing management actions. This project was designed to demonstrate how elements of that framework, climate science, ecological forecasting, and natural resource management, can be linked to best maintain natural resources under climate change. The project focused on the whitebark pine (WBP) tree. This species occupies high mountain forests and uniquely provides foods and habitats for other species. WBP populations have undergone massive die-offs over the past decade due to pest outbreaks associated with climate warming. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), federal agencies have been working together since 1999 to develop a strategy for restoring the lost WBP forests. This project was designed to provide guidance as to how to place management treatments in the landscape to be most effective under climate change. We analyzed relationships between WBP and climate during the past 15,000 years and forecasted potential response to climate change to the year 2100. In collaboration with federal managers, we used the results to develop a management strategy to maintain a viable population of WBP in the GYE under projected future climates. Simulation modeling experiments revealed that our “climate-informed” strategy is likely to be more effective under future climates than the current federal strategy. Our federal partners are now incorporating knowledge developed in the project into a revised version of the WBP management strategy. Public surveys conducted by the project revealed a high level of public support for such restoration efforts for this climatesensitive keystone tree species. 

The viability of the whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) species is under threat due to precipitously declining populations.  This study investigates the sources of differing levels of concern about climate-driven effects on whitebark pine trees.  It also investigates support for different Whitebark Pine (WBP) management strategies on federal public lands.