Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has occurred in the last several decades resulting in models that range widely in complexity and outputs. However, managers can still struggle to make informed decisions with these models for a variety of reasons, including misalignments between model outputs and the specific decision they are intended to inform, limitations in the technical capabilities of managers that may not have the experience or resources to use complex or expensive models, or the limitations of the models themselves. This project will provide a state of the science on low flow hydrological modeling that can be used to address management decisions specific to low flow hydrology, drought, and impacts from climate change. Specifically, through a worshop series, this project will 1) detail the decisions that managers must make related to low flow hydrology, drought, and climate change, 2) provide an inventory of appropriate hydrological models and model output that align to case-by-case decision making, and 3) identify areas for model improvements to address gaps, limitations, and uncertainties. A synthesis that summarizes and aligns hydrological models to the appropriate management decisions is expected to support more informed decision making and better outcomes as a result of more efficient and effective model application.

As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of these species and the cultural implications for the Tribe in order to enhance food sovereignty and cultural resiliency, improve tribal health, and maintain local biodiversity.   The project will assess the presence and distribution of valued species including subalpine fir, juneberry, chokecherry, and others, while engaging the community in discussions around access and community needs. Adopting a holistic approach to climate change assessment, traditional ecological knowledge and the cultural implications of climate change will be an integral and innovative aspect of the project. Community meetings, elder interviews, and youth engagement sessions will contribute to understanding the interconnected issues of protecting significant species and culture in their full complexity. Scenarios of future climate change impacts on the plant species and the community will be explored to inform planning and management decisions and the Fort Belknap Indian Community Climate Adaptation Plan. 

The long-term success of management efforts in sagebrush habitats are increasingly complicated by the impacts of a changing climate throughout the western United States. These complications are most evident in the ongoing challenges of drought and altered rangeland fire regimes resulting from the establishment of nonnative annual grasses. The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy recognized these growing threats to sagebrush habitat and initiated the development of an Actionable Science Plan to help the scientific and management communities address the highest priority science needs to help improve rangeland management efficacy in the West. Since the establishment of the original Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan in 2015, a considerable amount of climate science research has focused on western rangelands. Before the identification of the next set of priorities, there needs to be an assessment of how that science addressed the initially identified set of priorities. This research project will develop a scorecard that will provide the science and management communities with a clear understanding of how well the initially identified management priorities related to climate change and adaptation have been addressed since 2015. This will provide a baseline for discussions about the actionable science needed to continue to address the issues driving the loss, degradation, and fragmentation of sagebrush habitats in the western United States. The research team will 1) host a series of stakeholder meetings with rangeland researchers and agency managers to compile a set of current science needs related to climate science, 2) refine those needs through community input, and 3) host a series of prioritization meetings with a broadened stakeholder group to identify and update high priority climate science needs around rangeland management. These will form the basis of the next Actionable Science Plan and help focus the science and management communities on funding and implementing science activities that will address these needs in the coming years.

Natural & cultural resource managers are facing a slew of new challenges for managing public lands stemming from climate change and human-driven stressors like invasive species, fragmentation, and new resource uses. In some cases, the very landscapes and species they are managing are changing in significant ways, transforming from one set of conditions to another. As a result, previously successful management strategies may become less effective, or in some cases ineffective. New and transforming conditions leave managers in a bind on how to respond to transforming public lands and natural resources. On the most basic level managers have three choices of how to respond: resist change, accept change, or direct change (RAD). These difficult decisions cannot be fully answered by scientific information. Instead, decisions are influenced by several social factors, both unique to the individual manager and from outside sources. This research project will examine how key institutional and emotional factors shape management decisions about changing resources. Four national parks that are experiencing significant ecological transformation are the focus of the analysis: Sequoia & Kings Canyon, Acadia, Glacier, and North Cascades. The team will use interviews and focus groups to study how the culture and policy of individual parks, and the psychological and emotional experiences of managers responding to landscape changes, influence decisions. This project has four main goals: 1) to increase understanding of how institutional and emotional factors influence manager decision making in the National Park Service in the face of ecological transformation, 2) to provide tailored, actionable products to park managers in each case study location to inform unit-level decisions, 3) to develop examples of how to engage Tribal Nations with ties to park lands in decisions about transforming landscapes and establish connections between parks and Tribal partners, and 4) to contribute to emerging theory on the social science of ecological transformation in public land management.

Natural resource managers planning for increased incidence of droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts in the North Central region are in charge of management strategies that can impact the well-being of rural communities in the region. Gaining a better understanding of how resource management decisions may impact rural communities can allow for better consideration of the costs and benefits of resource management decisions. Identifying these impacts is especially important as these communities are often already unfairly disadvantaged and more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This project will focus on exploring the ways in which natural resource management decisions affect rural and tribal communities by identifying what communities are most vulnerable to climate change impacts and their connection to natural resource management decisions. The project will also examine how impacts to rural communities are currently taken into account when resource managers develop management plans and explore ways in which such impacts might be better represented in future decision-making processes. This research is intended to forge stronger connections between the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, resource managers, and rural communities, laying a foundation for future partnerships and collaborations to promote healthy ecosystems and communities in the face of climate change.

The USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) is currently engaged in an Ecological Drought initiative, focused on understanding the impacts of drought on natural ecosystems across the country. This project supported the Ecological Drought initiative by creating an Intermountain West Drought Social Science Synthesis Working Group. The goal of this working group was to investigate human dimensions of ecological drought across the intermountain west from a comparative, regional perspective. Throughout the Intermountain West, there has been significant investment in understanding how social factors influence manager and citizen experiences of drought in particular locations. Yet there is still a gap in knowledge of how human dimensions of drought impacts, planning, and resilience are similar and different across cases and regions. The working group engaged social scientists from federal agencies and universities to identify common trends in drought management across the Intermountain West to inform more effective drought preparedness and response across the region. Project outputs included two conference sessions, a typology manuscript to be submitted by the end of FY19, and the conceptual framing of a rapid assessment methodology that was subsequently developed into a standalone project.  

The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is currently engaged in an Ecological Drought initiative, focused on understanding the impacts of drought on natural ecosystems across the country. This project was designed to support the Ecological Drought initiative by creating a USGS EcoDrought Actionable Science Working Group. The goal of this working group was to identify science needs for drought-related decisions and to provide natural resource managers with practical strategies for adapting to and planning for drought.   The working group engaged social scientists to garner advice on relevant social science research questions and data needs, as well as to identify any regulatory, institutional, or cultural barriers that may impede adaptation efforts by managers. This approach was taken to help ensure that the science being produced on ecological drought is actionable – that is, it addressed critical stakeholder questions, took into account the complex social dynamics of drought adaptation, and was created to be easily used by decision-makers.   The ultimate goal of the working group was to use integrated social-ecological analysis to forecast the potential implications of drought, to provide better access to climate and drought-related data, and to develop tools that enable managers to visualize the potential impacts of management decisions before they are implemented.

As pressures from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, like invasive species, increase, new challenges arise for natural resource managers who are responsible for the health of public lands. One of the greatest challenges these managers face is that the traditional way of managing resources might not be as effective, or in some cases might be ineffective, in light of transformational ecological impacts that exist at the intersection of society and ecosystems. Thus, managers are struggling to understand how they should be managing shared natural resources and landscapes in this new era. This project studies the decision-making process of federal land managers to illuminate how decisions are being navigated and what strategies managers are developing to address challenges. To examine this issue, the project will use a comparative case study design focused on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska and the East Jemez Landscape in New Mexico, both of which are experiencing transformational ecological change and related management challenges. The project uses semi-structured interviews with natural resource managers from both case study sites to identify important factors shaping manager decision making and to explain factors that differ between them. For instance, how are managers’ choice of strategies influenced by the agency to which they belong? This research will contribute to a new climate adaptation and conservation knowledge base and offer information about how decisions are currently being made on public lands. The findings will help support public land management and conservation efforts and inform researchers as to what type of science would be most usable for managers tackling ecological transformation.

Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged drought, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future. These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water under unpredictable drought conditions, preserving forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions.   In light of the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, this project sought to help decision-makers develop strategies to reduce climate change impacts on people and nature. Scientists, land managers, and local communities worked together to identify actions that can be taken to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Known as “adaptation strategies”, these actions are an essential component of effective planning under shifting climate conditions. To facilitate the planning process, researchers aimed to provide information on the vulnerability of ecosystems, model plausible future climate conditions, and identify the social contexts in which adaptation decisions are made.   The project focused on the San Juan and upper Gunnison river basins of southwestern Colorado, though the goal was to develop an adaptation toolkit that can be applied to other landscapes. By identifying appropriate adaptation actions, this project was designed to help improve the resilience of local communities and ecosystems in the face of an uncertain future. Learn more about how this project is progressing in its second phase: Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2

The north-central region of the U.S. has experienced a series of extreme droughts in recent years, with impacts felt across a range of sectors. For example, the impacts of a 2002 drought are estimated to have resulted in a $3 billion loss to the agricultural sector in Nebraska and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ecological impacts of drought in the region have included increased tree mortality, surges in the outbreak of pests, and intensifying forest fires.   Located within this region is the Missouri River Basin, an important agricultural production area home to approximately 12 million people, including 28 Native American tribes. Tribal governments and multiple federal agencies manage land and natural resources in the drought-impacted Basin. The goal of this project was to understand how federal and tribal natural resource managers experience and deal with drought in this landscape. To do this, researchers documented how managers perceive drought impacts, how their decisions are affected by these perceptions, and their capacity to respond to and prepare for drought.   This information is expected to enable researchers to determine the types of climate data and tools that will help managers operating under drought conditions. Locally-specific “drought stories” are being developed, detailing historic trends and future projections of drought, as well as the risk perceptions, decisions, and adaptive capacities of local managers. Understanding the different perceptions and impacts of drought felt by managers can help provide a foundation for fostering more collective resource management across the region in the face of future drought. This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.