The project team, funded by the NC CSC, worked in two river basins in southwestern Colorado (San Juan and Gunnison) to focus on five objectives: 1) understand social-ecological vulnerabilities, 2) create scenarios and models to facilitate decision making, 3) develop actionable adaptation strategies, 4) identify institutional arrangements needed for adaptation, and 5) document and transfer best practices. The team was interested in the intersection of the climate system, the ecological system, and the social system. Social and natural scientists worked together and with many stakeholders to achieve these objectives.

Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0121.1): Much of the academic literature and policy discussions about sustainable development and climate change adaptation focus on poor and developing nations, yet many tribal communities inside the United States include marginalized peoples and developing nations who face structural barriers to effectively adapt to climate change. There is a need to critically examine diverse climate change risks for indigenous peoples in the United States and the many structural barriers that limit their ability to adapt to climate change. This paper uses a sustainable climate adaptation framework to outline the context and the relationships of power and authority, along with different ways of knowing and meaning, to illustrate the underpinnings of some tribes’ barriers to sustainable climate adaptation. The background of those structural barriers for tribes is traced, and then the case of water rights and management at the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming is used to illustrate the interplay of policy, culture, climate, justice, and limits to adaptation. Included is a discussion about how the rulings of the Big Horn general stream adjudication have hindered tribal climate change adaptation by limiting the quantity of tribal reserved water rights, tying those rights to the sole purposes of agriculture, which undermines social and cultural connections to the land and water, and failing to recognizing tribal rights to groundwater. Future climate projections suggest increasing temperatures, and changes in the amount and timing of snowpack, along with receding glaciers, all of which impact water availability downstream. Therefore, building capacity to take control of land and water resources and preparing for climate change and drought at Wind River Reservation is of critical importance.

Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096317300153): In recent years, federal land management agencies in the United States have been tasked to consider climate change vulnerability and adaptation in their planning. Ecological vulnerability approaches have been the dominant framework, but these approaches have significant limitations for fully understanding vulnerability in complex social-ecological systems in and around multiple-use public lands. In this paper, we describe the context of United States federal public lands management with an emphasis on the Bureau of Land Management to highlight this unique decision-making context. We then assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ecological vulnerability approach for informing decision-making. Next, we review social vulnerability methods in the context of public lands to demonstrate what these approaches can contribute to our understanding of vulnerability, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we suggest some key design principles for integrated social-ecological vulnerability assessments considering the context of public lands management, the limits of ecological vulnerability assessment, and existing approaches to social vulnerability assessment. We argue for the necessity of including social vulnerability in a more integrated social-ecological approach in order to better inform climate change adaptation.

In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions.   This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern Colorado: Phase 1”. Phase 1 focused on developing integrated social-ecological science and adaptation strategies for four target landscapes: spruce-fir forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, sagebrush scrublands, and seeps, springs and wetlands.   Phase 2 will further advance adaptation strategy development in the region and share the results with other communities, land managers, and decision-makers. Specifically, researchers will identify concrete actions that can be taken to carry out each adaptation strategy, and will develop solutions to address barriers identified by stakeholders in Phase 1 that could impede implementation. Ultimately, this project will result in landscape-scale conservation goals and actions that conserve key species, ecosystems, and resources, address the economic and social systems of local communities, and provide science resources for natural resource managers in the face of a changing climate.

This project conducts an interdisciplinary, technical assessment of key social-ecological vulnerabilities, risks, and response capacities of the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) to inform development of decision tools to support drought preparedness. It also provides opportunities for 1) development of tribal technical capacity for drought preparedness, and 2) educational programming guided by tribal needs, Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), and indigenous observations of drought for tribal members, with a longer-term goal of transferring lessons learned to other tribes and non-tribal entities. This project has foundational partnerships between the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the WRIR, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the North Central Climate Science Center (NCCSC) at Colorado State University, University of Wyoming EPSCoR, and multiple government agencies and university partners to develop decision tools to support drought preparedness. Other partners include the USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub and NRCS, the Western Water Assessment at CU Boulder, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the High Plains Regional Climate Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, USGS, BIA, Great Northern LCC, and other North Central University Consortium scientists. The project’s decision target is a WRIR Drought Management Plan that integrates state-of-the art climate science with hydrologic, social, and ecological vulnerabilities and risks, and identifies response capacities and strategies to support the Tribal Water Code and related resources management.

As part of a broader effort to increase the ability of federal agencies to understand and adapt to changes in climate variability and hazard profiles, the Colorado Bureau of Land Management has commissioned an on-going research effort to gather and analyze information on the potential climate-related vulnerabilities of the numerous communities and businesses that rely upon the state’s 8.4 million acres of BLM-managed public lands. In addition to a comprensive final report (Colorado Bureau of Land Management: Social Climate Vulnerability Assessment), the project team has produced three short, easy to read "Fact Sheets" aimed at providing a concise view of each of the project's components and their major findings.

As part of a broader effort to increase the ability of federal agencies to understand and adapt to changes in climate variability and hazard profiles, the Colorado Bureau of Land Management has commissioned an on-going research effort to gather and analyze information on the potential climate-related vulnerabilities of the numerous communities and businesses that rely upon the state’s 8.4 million acres of BLM-managed public lands. This report contains the initial findings of this project, and details work conducted between 2015 and 2017 centered around three main questions: 1. What efforts are currently underway within the Colorado BLM to address changes in climate and the climate vulnerabilities of public land users? 2. What are the characteristics of connections between public lands and communities across the state? 3. How are land-based livelihoods (such as ranching and recreational outfitting) that rely upon public land resources affected by changes in long-term weather patterns, extreme events, and associated BLM decision-making? To answer these questions, we took a mixed-methods approach. To better understand existing work on climate change within the Colorado BLM, we extensively reviewed existing resource management plans, resource advisory council notes, and other policy documents. In order to establish a state-wide view of patterns of communities, their characteristics, and their connection to BLM-managed resources, we conducted a geospatial analysis of multiple publicly available socio-demographic and economic datasets, as well as numerous BLM field office records on usage patterns and intensity. Finally, we also conducted two in-depth, qualitative case studies in two field office management areas with well-known connections to public land resources. Here, we used interviews with BLM staff, grazing permittees, recreational outfitters, and other business operators with ties to BLM-managed lands to better understand how climate hazards and shifts in seasonal weather patterns play out on the ground for public land users and the numerous communities across the state whose economies are closely linked to public land management policy. Throughout this process, we have aimed to compile and synthesize information that will allow field office managers and staff to ensure that future policies and management actions reflect the strengths, vulnerabilities, and needs of the diverse communities that rely upon public lands across the state.

Since 2014, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, along with several partners, has worked with the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the Wind River Indian Reservation in western Wyoming. The reservation is located in an arid, mountainous region that is prone to water resource issues. Through input from numerous workshops, webinars, and calls with tribal representatives, the HPRCC created a series of quarterly climate summaries to help the tribes make better informed on-reservation water management decisions. This Decision Dashboard is complementary to the summaries, allowing for more real-time monitoring of climate and drought conditions. This work was funded by the North Central CSC, through the project "The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness".

The Colorado office of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which administers 8.4 million acres of Colorado’s surface acres, and more than 29 million acres of sub‐surface mineral estate, has been charged with developing a climate adaptation strategy for BLM lands within the state. The assessments presented herein present a statewide perspective on the potential future influences of a changing climate on species and ecosystems of particular importance to the BLM, with the goal of facilitating development of the best possible climate adaptation strategies to meet future conditions. The Colorado Natural Heritage Program conducted climate change vulnerability assessments of plant and animal species, and terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (“targets”) within a time frame of mid‐21st century. Our assessments 1) evaluate the potential impact of future climate conditions on both species and ecosystems by identifying the degree of change expected between current and future climate conditions within the Colorado range of the target, and 2) address the potential impact of non‐climate factors that can affect the resilience of the target to climate change, or which are likely to have a greater impact due to climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments are not an end unto themselves, but are intended to help BLM managers identify areas where action may mitigate the effects of climate change, recognize potential novel conditions that may require additional analysis, and characterize uncertainties inherent in the process.