Archived Events
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NC CASC Webinar Series
Post-fire conifer regeneration in a changing climate
Post-fire conifer regeneration in a changing climate. Kimberley Davis and Philip Higuera, University of Montana. Abstract: Managers tasked with maintaining forest ecosystems and the services they provide are challenged by the combined impacts of increasing wildfire activity and more stressful post-fire climate conditions. To understand how climate change may affect post-fire regeneration, we examined the relationship between annual climate and post-fire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2820 destructively sampled trees from 32 wildfires across four regions in the western US. We showed that at dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration, thus creating increasing uncertainty for managers about where they can expect forest recovery following fire. Given the recent increase in area burned across the West, managers often need to stretch limited resources for post-fire reforestation efforts. To help address these challenges, we are applying our models relating post-fire regeneration to annual climate conditions and other biophysical predictors to create a tool that predicts probability of post-fire regeneration within recent fire boundaries. The tool will help managers prioritize management actions, such as tree planting. We will discuss the recent application of this tool to a fire in western MT in collaboration with foresters from The Nature Conservancy.
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Post-fire conifer regeneration in a changing climate. Kimberley Davis and Philip Higuera, University of Montana. Abstract: Managers tasked with maintaining forest ecosystems and the services they provide are challenged by the combined impacts of increasing wildfire activity and more stressful post-fire climate conditions. To understand how climate change may affect post-fire regeneration, we examined the relationship between annual climate and post-fire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2820 destructively sampled trees from 32 wildfires across four regions in the western US. We showed that at dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration, thus creating increasing uncertainty for managers about where they can expect forest recovery following fire. Given the recent increase in area burned across the West, managers often need to stretch limited resources for post-fire reforestation efforts. To help address these challenges, we are applying our models relating post-fire regeneration to annual climate conditions and other biophysical predictors to create a tool that predicts probability of post-fire regeneration within recent fire boundaries. The tool will help managers prioritize management actions, such as tree planting. We will discuss the recent application of this tool to a fire in western MT in collaboration with foresters from The Nature Conservancy.
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webinar
People, Nature, and Future Climate: Developing prioritized climate adaptation actions through a stakeholder driven process in southwest Colorado
People, Nature, and Future Climate: Developing prioritized climate adaptation actions through a stakeholder driven process in southwest Colorado. Presenters: Renee Rondeau, Conservation Planner and Ecologist, Colorado Natural Heritage Program Marcie Bidwell, Executive Director, Mountain Studies Institute, Durango, CO Andrew Breibart, Hydrologist, BLM, Gunnison Field Office. Abstract: Climate science was the foundation for building adaptation strategies in two rural Colorado mountain communities. But science alone was not enough. In order to develop on-the-ground actions, people were essential. Over a three year period, over 70 stakeholders, representing 20 organizations worked with our science team that included social scientists, ecologists, and climate scientists. Three climate scenarios informed us that droughts, fires, and an increase in insects and disease are likely to change our natural and social systems. Our groups developed adaptation actions that fit into three overarching strategies that can help mitigate some of the climate impacts: 1) Identify, protect, and manage climate refugia, 2) Increase drought resiliency in focal areas, and 3) Allow and assist social and ecological transformation. On-the-ground wet meadow restoration efforts in Gunnison, a Drought-resiliency group in the Mancos Valley, and transformation research in Mesa Verde National Park are just three of the on-going projects that highlight the importance of building local climate working groups.
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People, Nature, and Future Climate: Developing prioritized climate adaptation actions through a stakeholder driven process in southwest Colorado. Presenters: Renee Rondeau, Conservation Planner and Ecologist, Colorado Natural Heritage Program Marcie Bidwell, Executive Director, Mountain Studies Institute, Durango, CO Andrew Breibart, Hydrologist, BLM, Gunnison Field Office. Abstract: Climate science was the foundation for building adaptation strategies in two rural Colorado mountain communities. But science alone was not enough. In order to develop on-the-ground actions, people were essential. Over a three year period, over 70 stakeholders, representing 20 organizations worked with our science team that included social scientists, ecologists, and climate scientists. Three climate scenarios informed us that droughts, fires, and an increase in insects and disease are likely to change our natural and social systems. Our groups developed adaptation actions that fit into three overarching strategies that can help mitigate some of the climate impacts: 1) Identify, protect, and manage climate refugia, 2) Increase drought resiliency in focal areas, and 3) Allow and assist social and ecological transformation. On-the-ground wet meadow restoration efforts in Gunnison, a Drought-resiliency group in the Mancos Valley, and transformation research in Mesa Verde National Park are just three of the on-going projects that highlight the importance of building local climate working groups.
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webinar
Creating Actionable Science
Alisa Wade, USGS Research Coordinator, NC CASC, provides a brief overview of stakeholder engagement for creating actionable science.
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Alisa Wade, USGS Research Coordinator, NC CASC, provides a brief overview of stakeholder engagement for creating actionable science.
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Climate Futures Toolbox
Max Joseph of the NC CASC and Earth Lab provides an overview of the Climate Futures Toolbox, a new tool developed by the NC CASC. About the CFT: Managers and climate impacts researchers face multiple pain points when trying to use climate projection data: discovery, access, and usage. There are multiple global climate model repositories (CMIP3, CMIP5), multiple downscaling techniques (MACA, BCSD, LOCA), and multiple file formats. Each product has different spatio‐temporal resolutions, different climate variables, and different limitations. The investigator team proposed to develop and implement the Climate Futures Toolbox (CFT), a seamless R‐code workflow to ingest historic and projected climate data and generate summary information and customizable graphics for user‐defined time periods and regions of interest. Project goals include: creating a lower barrier to entry for climate data consumers that use R; automating scenario planning data tasks; empowering a larger user community; and reducing potential for errors. The investigator team was committed from the start to creating the CFT as an open‐source and openworkflow tool and to engaging management partners directly in the tool design. We hope that this contributes to the lifetime of the tool by allowing others to contribute future code to summarize climate data in new and different ways as user needs evolve and new data become available.
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Max Joseph of the NC CASC and Earth Lab provides an overview of the Climate Futures Toolbox, a new tool developed by the NC CASC. About the CFT: Managers and climate impacts researchers face multiple pain points when trying to use climate projection data: discovery, access, and usage. There are multiple global climate model repositories (CMIP3, CMIP5), multiple downscaling techniques (MACA, BCSD, LOCA), and multiple file formats. Each product has different spatio‐temporal resolutions, different climate variables, and different limitations. The investigator team proposed to develop and implement the Climate Futures Toolbox (CFT), a seamless R‐code workflow to ingest historic and projected climate data and generate summary information and customizable graphics for user‐defined time periods and regions of interest. Project goals include: creating a lower barrier to entry for climate data consumers that use R; automating scenario planning data tasks; empowering a larger user community; and reducing potential for errors. The investigator team was committed from the start to creating the CFT as an open‐source and openworkflow tool and to engaging management partners directly in the tool design. We hope that this contributes to the lifetime of the tool by allowing others to contribute future code to summarize climate data in new and different ways as user needs evolve and new data become available.
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Debrief: Workshops with Wyoming Game & Fish
Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), provides a summary about the online workshop she held with the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), related to their collaborative effort to incorporate climate change information and adaptation strategies into the 2020 revision of the WY Statewide Habitat Plan. In addition to supporting climate‐informed decisions by WGFD, this project is also designed to be a learning opportunity on methods and approaches to coproducing and co‐synthesizing climate science that is relevant and used in management decisions. Molly shares some of the content of what was discussed (related to the WY Statewide Habitat Plan), in addition to her experience doing co‐production work in a virtual setting.
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Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), provides a summary about the online workshop she held with the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD), related to their collaborative effort to incorporate climate change information and adaptation strategies into the 2020 revision of the WY Statewide Habitat Plan. In addition to supporting climate‐informed decisions by WGFD, this project is also designed to be a learning opportunity on methods and approaches to coproducing and co‐synthesizing climate science that is relevant and used in management decisions. Molly shares some of the content of what was discussed (related to the WY Statewide Habitat Plan), in addition to her experience doing co‐production work in a virtual setting.
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webinar
Holding Back the Snowpack
A film, "Holding Back the Snowpack (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG8YWqSHF88) ," explores the suite of tools stakeholders in the Big Hole Valley are using to improve riparian habitat along the Big Hole River. The Big Hole Watershed Committee collaborates with a variety of partners to create life-giving wetlands in SW Montana. Taking cues from flood irrigation and beavers, natural water storage projects help us adapt to climate change by slowing spring runoff and soaking the soil sponge. The film highlights our pro-active work to increase the availability of water for all uses by making the most of abundant winter snowpack. Support our life-giving work by making a donation today at https://bhwc.org/giving/ Film production by FilmWest. Project funding: The Wildlife Conservation Society, Natural Resourced Damage Program, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, Montana Watershed Coordination Council, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Project Partners and Contractors: BHWC, Water and Environmental Technologies, Watershed Consulting, Pioneer Technical, Morrison-Maierle, Basic Biological Services, and Montana Conservation Corps. photo credit: Big Hole Watershed Committee
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A film, "Holding Back the Snowpack (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG8YWqSHF88) ," explores the suite of tools stakeholders in the Big Hole Valley are using to improve riparian habitat along the Big Hole River. The Big Hole Watershed Committee collaborates with a variety of partners to create life-giving wetlands in SW Montana. Taking cues from flood irrigation and beavers, natural water storage projects help us adapt to climate change by slowing spring runoff and soaking the soil sponge. The film highlights our pro-active work to increase the availability of water for all uses by making the most of abundant winter snowpack. Support our life-giving work by making a donation today at https://bhwc.org/giving/ Film production by FilmWest. Project funding: The Wildlife Conservation Society, Natural Resourced Damage Program, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, Montana Watershed Coordination Council, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Project Partners and Contractors: BHWC, Water and Environmental Technologies, Watershed Consulting, Pioneer Technical, Morrison-Maierle, Basic Biological Services, and Montana Conservation Corps. photo credit: Big Hole Watershed Committee
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webinar
Understanding and Quantifying Impacts of Regional Climate Change
"Understanding and Quantifying Impacts of Regional Climate Change". Imtiaz Rangwala. Guest lecture presented to the graduate class "Climate Change Response: Adaptation, Mitigation & Transformation", University of Wyoming. September 15, 2020.
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"Understanding and Quantifying Impacts of Regional Climate Change". Imtiaz Rangwala. Guest lecture presented to the graduate class "Climate Change Response: Adaptation, Mitigation & Transformation", University of Wyoming. September 15, 2020.
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Will there still be snow in wolverine denning habitat in the 2050s? High resolution projections for two study areas in the Rocky Mountains
Presenters: Joseph J. Barsugli (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory) Stephen Torbit (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO - retired) John M. Guinotte (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO) Abstract: Persistent spring snowpack has been proposed to be an important factor to determine suitable habitat for wolverine, particularly for denning by pregnant females, based on correlative studies from the northern Rocky Mountains. Reduction in deep snow for denning resulting from climate change was cited in proposals to list wolverine under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and in subsequent litigation to force a listing under the ESA and a federal court agreed this component was a significant factor for the Fish and Wildlife Service to consider. An earlier climate change assessment had revealed significant loss of snowpack in the future in lower elevations in the Rocky Mountains, but the spatial resolution of modeling mountain snowpack was coarse enough to have limited value for assessing impacts on a scale relevant for wolverine conservation. We modeled the future impacts of climate change on persistent snow in occupied and historical wolverine habitats at a 250 meter resolution in order to explicitly understand the effects of topography, slope and aspect on snow cover persistence. We then compared those snow cover projections to existing data on known wolverine den locations and potential wolverine denning locations in the two study areas. The results demonstrate significant retention of snow cover at higher elevations within documented and predicted wolverine denning habitat in both study areas. We project persistent spring snow cover is significant, abundant, widely dispersed and available for wolverines across both study areas, and across several climate scenarios for the mid 21st century.
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Presenters: Joseph J. Barsugli (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory) Stephen Torbit (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO - retired) John M. Guinotte (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO) Abstract: Persistent spring snowpack has been proposed to be an important factor to determine suitable habitat for wolverine, particularly for denning by pregnant females, based on correlative studies from the northern Rocky Mountains. Reduction in deep snow for denning resulting from climate change was cited in proposals to list wolverine under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and in subsequent litigation to force a listing under the ESA and a federal court agreed this component was a significant factor for the Fish and Wildlife Service to consider. An earlier climate change assessment had revealed significant loss of snowpack in the future in lower elevations in the Rocky Mountains, but the spatial resolution of modeling mountain snowpack was coarse enough to have limited value for assessing impacts on a scale relevant for wolverine conservation. We modeled the future impacts of climate change on persistent snow in occupied and historical wolverine habitats at a 250 meter resolution in order to explicitly understand the effects of topography, slope and aspect on snow cover persistence. We then compared those snow cover projections to existing data on known wolverine den locations and potential wolverine denning locations in the two study areas. The results demonstrate significant retention of snow cover at higher elevations within documented and predicted wolverine denning habitat in both study areas. We project persistent spring snow cover is significant, abundant, widely dispersed and available for wolverines across both study areas, and across several climate scenarios for the mid 21st century.
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workshop
CIRES Diversity & Inclusion Virtual Workshop with James Rattling Leaf
“Building Relational and Effective Partnerships with Indigenous Communities” with James Rattling Leaf, Sr. Tue, November 17, 2020 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM MST James Rattling Leaf Sr. will outline recommendations for working with Indigenous communities based on the knowledge that long term relationship building with these communities is the foundation upon which educational programs, research collaborations, and other initiatives must be co-created.
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“Building Relational and Effective Partnerships with Indigenous Communities” with James Rattling Leaf, Sr. Tue, November 17, 2020 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM MST James Rattling Leaf Sr. will outline recommendations for working with Indigenous communities based on the knowledge that long term relationship building with these communities is the foundation upon which educational programs, research collaborations, and other initiatives must be co-created.
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webinar
Revised Thinking on Adaptation: Will We be Less Successful than Assumed?
Presented by: Joel B. Smith Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0ocuyurT4pHNOkHKONQaLd-Wyq2G9Mos_j After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: In my early days of assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation, I was relatively optimistic about the ability of the United States to adapt its “managed systems” to the projected climate change impacts. Managed systems have active human involvement such as management of coasts abutting settlements, water supplies, and flood management. In contrast, I have always been concerned about climate change impacts on natural ecosystems and developing countries because of a relative lack of adaptive capacity. My optimism was born from assumptions that anthropogenically induced climate change would involve a gradual change in climate and, we assumed, small changes in variability. I also assumed that with our wealth, technical capacity, and strong governance, we could take the steps to substantially reduce potentially adverse impacts of climate change. Our society had built major water and transportation within a few decades, at a faster commensurate or faster than projected rates of climate change. This did not assume that we would get everything right and not make mistakes, but that we could largely manage the increased risks. Based on how the climate is changing and the difficulties we as a country have in addressing major challenges, I am now more pessimistic about how well we will do adapting to climate change. While temperatures are rising as had been forecast, sea levels may rise more than had been projected, and we are already seeing increases in climate variability and unexpected changes in hurricane formation and movement and in the extent of fires and fire behavior. As these changes in climate have been emerging, our ability to adapt to them appears to be more limited. Our political system can work to address serious problems when a broad consensus exists about the nature of problems and the need for action. We are a very divided country politically, unable to agree about the science of such pressing problems as climate change and even the coronavirus. Our society seems incapable of addressing long term problems such as the general decay in infrastructure or decreasing public funding for education. Will we be able to overcome such problems to not only substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions but invest hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars needed to adapt to observed and anticipated changes in climate? While we have the wealth, technology, and governance systems that enable us to adequately respond to emerging challenges such as climate change, will the combination of more destructive changes in climate and our inability to effectively overcome major policy challenges cause us to experience more adverse impacts of climate change than had been thought? Based on what I see I am concerned it could turn out that way. I will focus on fire and risks to the wildland urban interface as an example of rapidly growing climate risks managed through decentralized and inconsistent policy processes that may not be up to the major challenge of adaptation. About the speaker: Joel B. Smith has been analyzing climate change impacts and adaptation issues for over three decades. He was a coordinating lead author or lead author on the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mr. Smith was an author on three U.S. National Climate Change Assessments (NCA), including Chapter Lead on the International Chapter for the fourth NCA. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences “Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change.” Mr. Smith has provided technical advice, guidance, and training on assessing climate change impacts and adaptation to people around the world and to international organizations, the U.S. government, states, municipalities, and the non-profit and private sectors. He worked for the U.S. EPA from 1984 to 1992, where he was the deputy director of Climate Change Division. He has been a consultant since 1992 and is now an independent consultant. Mr. Smith was a coeditor of The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States (1989), As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications (1995), Adaptation to Climate Change: Assessments and Issues (1996), Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, and Development (2003), and The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive Analysis of California (2006). He has published more than 75 articles and chapters on climate change impacts and adaptation in peer-reviewed journals and books and has edited a number of books on climate change. Mr. Smith received a BA from Williams College in 1979 (graduating magna cum laude), and a Masters in Public Policy from the University of Michigan in 1982.
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Presented by: Joel B. Smith Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0ocuyurT4pHNOkHKONQaLd-Wyq2G9Mos_j After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: In my early days of assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation, I was relatively optimistic about the ability of the United States to adapt its “managed systems” to the projected climate change impacts. Managed systems have active human involvement such as management of coasts abutting settlements, water supplies, and flood management. In contrast, I have always been concerned about climate change impacts on natural ecosystems and developing countries because of a relative lack of adaptive capacity. My optimism was born from assumptions that anthropogenically induced climate change would involve a gradual change in climate and, we assumed, small changes in variability. I also assumed that with our wealth, technical capacity, and strong governance, we could take the steps to substantially reduce potentially adverse impacts of climate change. Our society had built major water and transportation within a few decades, at a faster commensurate or faster than projected rates of climate change. This did not assume that we would get everything right and not make mistakes, but that we could largely manage the increased risks. Based on how the climate is changing and the difficulties we as a country have in addressing major challenges, I am now more pessimistic about how well we will do adapting to climate change. While temperatures are rising as had been forecast, sea levels may rise more than had been projected, and we are already seeing increases in climate variability and unexpected changes in hurricane formation and movement and in the extent of fires and fire behavior. As these changes in climate have been emerging, our ability to adapt to them appears to be more limited. Our political system can work to address serious problems when a broad consensus exists about the nature of problems and the need for action. We are a very divided country politically, unable to agree about the science of such pressing problems as climate change and even the coronavirus. Our society seems incapable of addressing long term problems such as the general decay in infrastructure or decreasing public funding for education. Will we be able to overcome such problems to not only substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions but invest hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars needed to adapt to observed and anticipated changes in climate? While we have the wealth, technology, and governance systems that enable us to adequately respond to emerging challenges such as climate change, will the combination of more destructive changes in climate and our inability to effectively overcome major policy challenges cause us to experience more adverse impacts of climate change than had been thought? Based on what I see I am concerned it could turn out that way. I will focus on fire and risks to the wildland urban interface as an example of rapidly growing climate risks managed through decentralized and inconsistent policy processes that may not be up to the major challenge of adaptation. About the speaker: Joel B. Smith has been analyzing climate change impacts and adaptation issues for over three decades. He was a coordinating lead author or lead author on the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mr. Smith was an author on three U.S. National Climate Change Assessments (NCA), including Chapter Lead on the International Chapter for the fourth NCA. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences “Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change.” Mr. Smith has provided technical advice, guidance, and training on assessing climate change impacts and adaptation to people around the world and to international organizations, the U.S. government, states, municipalities, and the non-profit and private sectors. He worked for the U.S. EPA from 1984 to 1992, where he was the deputy director of Climate Change Division. He has been a consultant since 1992 and is now an independent consultant. Mr. Smith was a coeditor of The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States (1989), As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications (1995), Adaptation to Climate Change: Assessments and Issues (1996), Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, and Development (2003), and The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive Analysis of California (2006). He has published more than 75 articles and chapters on climate change impacts and adaptation in peer-reviewed journals and books and has edited a number of books on climate change. Mr. Smith received a BA from Williams College in 1979 (graduating magna cum laude), and a Masters in Public Policy from the University of Michigan in 1982.
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