How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. We leveraged the Neotoma Paleoecology Database to develop the record of landscape-scale rapid ecological change and transformation of vegetation over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies ecoregions. We modeled the climate drivers of rapid vegetation change and transformation at the landscape scale with TRacE21ka paleoclimate output in Boosted Regression Trees, and we modeled the role of landscape characteristics at the site-level with a Bayesian approach. We identified 60 unique transformations across all 29 sites that took 21 different forms. We found that, at the landscape scale, a 2 ℃ rise in temperature initiated rapid ecological change, and a 5 ℃ rise led to ecological transformation. We also found that landscape characteristics played only a minor role in climate-driven vegetation change, with somewhat faster change on southwest-facing slopes in the Southern Rockies. In addition, transition out of any one particular vegetation type generally resulted in a diverse array of ecological trajectories and outcomes across sites, suggesting that managers would benefit from considering multiple potential ecological futures in climate adaptation planning. This study shows that rapid warming, to the degree expected within the next few decades in the Southern and Middle Rockies, can trigger landscape-scale ecological changes, regardless of the landscape context.

Resource systems in our region and beyond seem to be awash in extreme weather and climate events, mega-drought in the Colorado River Basin, floods in Yellowstone and Death Valley, “heat domes”, “flash droughts,” and wildfire conditions that defy even the most carefully planned and conducted prescribed burns. Extreme events pose a number of distinct challenges to resources planning and management, starting with the analytical effort needed to assess and detect their physical characteristics (frequency, magnitude, etc.), evaluate the threat they pose to natural and cultural resources, their likely evolution in a changing climate, and how to configure these insights into management plans. Managers know that “unexpected” conditions may arise, surprises are likely, and they cope and adapt plans in various ways. The toolkit for dealing with extremes might benefit from lessons from other fields, ranging from aviation to nuclear safety, disaster analysis and reduction, and we will examine some of these approaches, but also apply the most common strategy of all: drawing lessons from recent cases. Webinar participants are encouraged to have a case of extreme conditions or surprising system behavior in mind to offer for discussion. Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIrceupqzIuEtLWej6caFLxLent3pllgwKR

Presented by: Ana Davidson, Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University Registration link: Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEodeyhrTMpGdVrVGZ622sNwK_vf8vOq9Kw After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting. Abstract: Our team is developing a large-scale collaborative conservation planning initiative for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem that stretches across North America’s Great Plains. Because prairie dogs are keystone species of North America’s central grasslands, their conservation and management often lies at the core of many conservation efforts across the region. Through mapping and ecological modelling, we are working to identify potential landscapes for conservation that will consider ecological, political, and social factors, along with changing climate and land use to maximize long-term conservation potential and co-existence with human activities. Here, we will report on our habitat suitability model for the black-tailed prairie dog and landscapes we have identified to have high conservation potential for the black-tailed prairie dog ecosystem. About the speaker: Dr. Ana Davidson (http://anadavidson.weebly.com/) is a Research Scientist at the Colorado Natural Heritage Program at Colorado State University (CSU) and a Joint Faculty member in the Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology at CSU. Her research centers on biodiversity conservation, spanning multiple scales, from local field-based ecology to landscape ecology and global-scale macroecology. Much of her work focuses on species that play large and important ecological roles, such as burrowing mammals and large herbivores, that shape and transform ecosystems and are central to the conservation of associated species.

Presented by:  David Lawrence, National Park Service  Amber Runyon, National Park Service Other co-authors: John Gross, National Park Service Gregor Schuurman, National Park Service Brian Miller, U.S. Geological Survey, North Central CASC Joel Reynolds, National Park Service Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYrduGrpj4iE9INQlaV2SclWlQu123wURPH After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting.   Abstract: When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.  Managers use scenario planning to explore plausible ways the climate may change, allowing them to work with climate change uncertainty rather than being paralyzed by it.  Once identified, scenarios of the future are used to develop proactive measures to prepare for and adapt to scenarios of change.   A key part of scenario planning is generating a list of potential future climates we may experience.  This webinar will describe and compare different approaches to generate the climate futures and identify an approach that captures a broad range of climate conditions (a key ingredient to developing scenarios) across both near and long-term planning horizons.  We then will describe tools for creating reproducible climate futures, including an R package and training materials that enables users to develop their own projections, and provide guidance on their use.  Over the past decade, we have operationalized the generation of climate futures and with the recent development of the Reproducible Climate Futures (RCF) R package, standardized and streamlined their production.  We have found climate futures and scenarios offer an adaptable approach to planning across a broad range of management contexts.    About the speakers: David Lawrence specializes in aquatic ecology and has worked as a climate change scientist within the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program since 2017.  In this role David conducts and translates climate change research to support forward-looking land and water management.  David has a PhD in ecology from the University of Washington.  Amber Runyon is an ecologist for the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program where she collaborates with park managers to provide management-relevant projections of future-climate that serve as the basis for climate-informed planning. Amber has a PhD in ecology from Colorado State University.  

Presented by: Katherine Hegewisch (University of California Merced) John Guinotte (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Alexandra Kasdin (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Aimee Crittendon (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) Abstract: Field biologists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service develop climate information for species status assessments of potentially endangered species using data from ClimateToolbox.org. In this webinar, we will discuss the data needs for these assessments and will provide an overview of the data and tools in the Climate Toolbox with specific examples of how biologists currently utilize the Toolbox for assessments. About the speakers: Katherine Hegewisch is a project scientist at the University of California Merced where she works as a climate data provider, analyst and web tool developer. She is the developer of the Climate Toolbox, a series of web tools for visualizing climate data. She received her PhD in physics from Washington State University in 2010. John Guinotte is a spatial ecologist with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), in its Ecological Services Program, based out of the legacy region 6 office in Lakewood Colorado. John assists FWS field offices across regions 5 and 7 with analytical, geospatial and statistical needs for listing or delisting species under the Endangered Species Act’s Species Status Assessments. In addition to informing listing decisions, John’s work supports habitat conservation plans, recovery, critical habitat, climate vulnerability and mitigation. John has PhD in Tropical Environmental Studies and Geography from James Cook University in Australia. Alex Kasdin is a Species Assessment Team Project Manager with the Ecological Services Program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; she works out of the Regional Office in Lakewood, Colorado. She leads teams of biological experts crafting Species Status Assessments to inform classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act. She also helps decision-makers apply the standards in the Act to determine if species warrant listing. Alex has a Bachelor’s degree in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and a Master’s in Public Affairs, both from Princeton University. Aimee Crittendon is a Biologist at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Western Colorado Ecological Services Field Office, where her work focuses on federally threatened and endangered species listing and recovery. Before her work with the service, Aimee served as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Botswana and then went on to work for the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as an aquatic invasive species response coordinator. Aimee has a masters in Conservation Biology and Watershed Ecology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Please join us for the NC CASC webinar on Thursday, December 9, 2021, 11a -12p MDT:  "Setting habitat protection and restoration priorities in a warming world: Lessons from Wyoming".  Presented by:  Molly Cross, Wildlife Conservation Society Paul Dey, Wyoming Game & Fish Department Please register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJckdemvqzwsE9PhJZ5YF2s1WCriYijoEiFz  After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about how to join the meeting.   Abstract: In 2020, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) partnered with the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) on a project designed to help the agency incorporate climate change into their Statewide Habitat Plan (SHP) that was slated for an update that year. WGFD and WCS worked together to develop and apply a process for incorporating climate change into the SHP, which included a participatory workshop, a post-workshop Information Needs Survey, and regular meetings throughout the year to translate findings from the workshop and survey into the updated SHP. As a result of this project, climate change was more extensively incorporated into the 2020 SHP relative to the previous version of the plan (completed in 2015). This included discussing climate change as a threat to achieving habitat protection and restoration for river, riparian and wetland habitats, as well as incorporating climate-informed management strategies and actions. The updated SHP also included climate change within the agency’s scoring system for allocating funding to habitat management projects. In addition to informing the SHP, the project also helped WGFD identify management-relevant climate-related information needs that are considered highly useful to WGFD staff and their management efforts. We believe that the project offers a useful model to other agencies that are interested in incorporating climate change into management plans, and to scientists and agencies looking to identify priority research needs related to climate change.  About the speakers: Molly Cross is a lead Climate Change Adaptation Scientist for the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS). Her work brings together researchers and conservation practitioners to incorporate climate change science into on-the-ground conservation goals actions. She is also Director of Science for the WCS Climate Adaptation Fund, which supports applied projects demonstrating on-the-ground interventions for wildlife adaptation to climate change in the United States. Paul Dey is the aquatic habitat program manager for the Wyoming Game and Fish Department. In this role, he facilitates a team of twelve agency logists in implementing stream restoration, fish passage, and water management projects to improve stream functions and aquatic resources.  

Forest impacts on snow water resources: management and climate adaptation possibilities Presented by: Dr. Keith Musselman, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder Abstract: Most of the snow water resources that feed North America’s large rivers originate from forested land. Forest canopies greatly affect the snow on the ground. Forest cover intercepts snowfall that subsequently sublimates back to the atmosphere – a water resource that is never realized. At the same time, forest canopy shelters snow from wind and shades it from solar radiation, facilitating the persistent provision of meltwater late into the spring. In this talk, I present both empirical data and models to review how forest structure impacts snow and the critical consequences of climate change and forest structure degradation on the hydrology, meteorology and ecology of forests. The challenges and possibilities to inform adaptive response by forest management practitioners and the needs for robust, community-based predictive models are discussed. About the speaker: Dr. Keith Musselman is a research associate at INSTAAR. As a hydrologist, Keith assesses climate change and land cover impacts on freshwater availability, streamflow, and flood risk across a spectrum of scale. Keith holds a B.S. in Geology from the University of Vermont, an M.S. in Hydrology and Water Resources from the University of Arizona, and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from UCLA. As a postdoc, he worked for the University of Saskatchewan on the topics of forest hydrology and land cover change. He was a postdoctoral fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from 2015-2017 where he helped to advance hydrologic model treatment of cold region processes. Now at the University of Colorado Boulder, Keith leads multiple large interdisciplinary research projects including a team of 20 people to assess climate change impacts on Indigenous communities in Alaska and the Yukon using co-production. Keith has authored 30 publications including recent high-profile papers on snowmelt and flood risk in current and future climates.

Presented by: Balaji Rajagopalan, Professor & Chair, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcvce6rrTorGdPCvw03x6P5UbHcT6NFUvgf After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important habitat in the northern Great Plains with millions of wetlands used by waterfowl, pheasants, deer, and many unique species that cannot be found elsewhere in the regional landscape. The region is highly sensitive to variations in climate, and it is projected to face climate changes in the future. Summer precipitation in the SEPPR is integral by helping to sustain the ecosystem after spring snowmelt. Thus, understanding, modeling, and projecting the summer hydroclimatology and ecology is crucial for resource managers of the SEPPR in managing the ecosystem efficiently. Expanding on available summer climate and climate variability information and providing unique tools that provide predictions will assist in their work. Motivated by this broader need, this research provides four key contributions. (1) We provide analysis and understanding of the space-time variability of summer hydroclimatology and potential mechanisms. We establish teleconnections and potential mechanisms driving the SEPPR summer precipitation variability through multivariate analysis of large-scale climate variables and regional rainfall. (2) Using the Lagrangian parcel-tracking model HYSPLIT, moisture sources and pathways of summer rainfall were identified. (3) We provide SEPPR resource managers with a predictive tool by employing an underutilized statistical forecasting technique – multivariate Canonical Correlation Analysis – to develop multisite forecasting models for spring and summer SEPPR pond counts. These models predict spring (May) and summer (July) pond counts for each region of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service’s pond and waterfowl surveys. (4) Finally, we provide SEPPR resource managers with a novel, predictive tool capable of simulating multiple vegetation types native to the SEPPR. This integrated climate-ecological modeling framework (ICEMF) couples a stochastic weather generator that can be conditioned on climate forecasts along with SEPPR climate, soil, and vegetation information in an ecological model, DayCent, to simulate ensembles of vegetation attributes in the SEPPR. The combination of new insights into the space-time hydroclimate variability, moisture sources and pathways of summer moisture, a multi-site forecasting model for ponds that supports SEPPR ecology, and the ICEMF makes a significant contribution to the broader community. These can be applied to model other ecological systems in the world, enabled to study impacts of climate change, and help with efficient and sustainable management. About the speaker: Professor Balaji Rajagopalan is the Chair of the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (CEAE) and a Fellow of Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), CU Boulder. He pursues research in diverse interdisciplinary areas spanning – hydro-climatology; water resources management, Indian summer monsoon, paleo-climate and stochastic hydrology. In addition, large scale statistical analysis and modeling for applications to water and wastewater quality, construction safety, building energy efficiency and others. For his research contributing to improved operations, management and planning of water resources in the semi-arid river basins of Western USA, especially the Colorado River System, he was a co-recipient of the Partners In Conservation Award from the Department of Interior in 2009. He was elected Fellow, American Geophysical Union, in 2019.

Presented by: Gregor Schuurman, Ecologist, National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program Abstract: Strong climate trends and other modern human drivers effectively place ecosystems in new contexts with new challenges for managers and society. Mounting costs of restoring past conditions or even “holding the line” to preserve current conditions are increasingly likened to paddling upstream. This situation is both a practical and a philosophical challenge for managers because an assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability”—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management. This assumption is expressed in widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. In this brave new non-stationary world, resisting change is not always the most effective approach for achieving long-term management goals. In fact, unexamined resistance may lead to misinvestment of limited management resources and loss of opportunities for more effective action. Managers are therefore expanding their toolkit. Resisting change continues to be a valid approach where careful consideration shows it to be strategic (i.e., feasible and cost-effective), but is increasingly complemented by options to instead “go with the flow” and either accept the trajectory or intervene to direct it towards preferred new conditions. New thinking in the National Park Service along these lines encourages managers to consider the full range of potential decisions, as expressed in the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The RAD framework, the product of long-term collaboration among a diverse set of partners, helps managers make informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change. This presentation will describe the challenge of strong ecological trajectories and transformations and introduce the RAD framework and illustrate its application alongside other important tools and concepts. About the speaker: Dr. Gregor Schuurman is an Ecologist with the National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program, which is headquartered in Fort Collins, Colorado. He works with parks and partners to understand and adapt to a wide range of climate change impacts. Specifically, his work focuses on 1) helping incorporate climate projections into management and planning, 2) producing and synthesizing management-relevant science, and 3) developing climate adaptation tools and concepts. Gregor received his Ph.D. from the University of Washington's Zoology Department and his M.S. from University of Minnesota’s Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior.

Presented by: Owen McKenna, Research Ecologist, USGS NPWRC; Ned Wright, Wildlife Biologist, USFWS HAPET Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions. Our goal with this interagency collaboration is to co-produce useable information to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. We are using a mechanistic hydrology model in combination with multi-decadal monitoring data and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. About the speakers: Dr. Owen McKenna is a Research Ecologist at Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, ND. Dr. McKenna holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Life Sciences at Arizona State University. His research is focused on studying how changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology and geochemistry of prairie-pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna has explored a regional climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems through analysis of long-term data. He also helped in development and application of the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS), which is an integrated hydro-geochemical model for prairie pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna is currently using PHyLiSS to assist land managers in estimating the future impacts of climate and land-use change on critical migratory waterfowl habitat. Ned Wright is a Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck, ND. Mr. Wright holds a B.S. in Conservation Biology from University of Wisconsin Madison. He oversees the coordination of long-term study of waterfowl populations in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. This survey is recognized as the primary method to monitor the abundance and distribution of breeding waterfowl by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.