Date: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Dannele Peck, Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpdO-srD4tGNTKSg19pPufOYPPz0hT7N-T After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The Grassland Productivity Forecast or “Grass-Cast” uses over 30 years of historical data on weather and vegetation growth—combined with satellite NDVI data and seasonal precipitation scenarios—to predict if rangelands in individual ~6 mile x 6 mile areas are likely to produce above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal amounts of vegetation. Grass-Cast can help public and private rangeland managers throughout the Great Plains and Southwest adaptively manage lands by providing early warning of drought-induced vegetation shortages. It was first released to the public in 2018 for the Northern Great Plains, then expanded to the Southern Great Plains in 2019, and most recently to the Southwest states of New Mexico and Arizona in 2020. Originally developed to inform rangeland livestock management decisions, Grass-Cast can also be relevant for management and modeling of wildlife populations that depend on grassland habitat. As a member of the Grass-Cast science and outreach team, Dr. Peck looks forward to the unique opportunity this webinar provides to share Grass-Cast with a ecosystems and wildlife-oriented audience—to discover, together, its potential applications beyond livestock. About the speaker: Dr. Dannele Peck is Director of the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub, based out of Fort Collins, Colorado. The Hubs connect working-land managers with science-based resources and partners to empower climate-smart decision-making. Prior to joining USDA Agricultural Research Service in 2016, Dr. Peck was an Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Wyoming. She specializes in decision-making under uncertainty, including agricultural drought preparedness and response, and disease management at the livestock-wildlife interface. Raised on a dairy farm in upstate New York, Dr. Peck is a first-generation college student and proud alumna of the McNair Scholars Program. She holds a B.S. in Wildlife Biology and an M.S. in Agricultural Economics, both from the University of Wyoming, and a Ph.D. in Agricultural & Resource Economics from Oregon State University.

Date: Thursday, April 8, 2021, 11a -12p MDT Presented by: Justin Gude, Wildlife Research & Technical Services Bureau Chief, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYsc-GgqjooEtO1BVH4MgBmHjTjJaIA75B7 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Concerns about mountain goats have arisen in many areas in recent years. Climate change may negatively affect this alpine ungulate, and recent evidence indicates that mountain goats harbor respiratory pathogens associated with pneumonia epidemics in bighorn sheep. Mountain goat demographic and population data are difficult to collect and sparsely available, exacerbating these concerns. We used a structured decision making process to address these issues and uncertainties, building from a successful track record of using this approach to make management program decisions in Montana, USA. Our analysis predicted that translocations to establish new mountain goat populations would result in more area occupied by mountain goats at mid-century, regardless of the effects of climate change. We found that various management actions may improve population trends, although this was associated with considerable uncertainty. Value of information analyses revealed that more information about population dynamics, the presence of pneumonia-associated pathogens, and the consequences of mixing microbial communities during translocations will affect choices among alternative management actions. Optimal management choices also varied by individual risk tolerance for disease transmission, because translocations are expected to increase disease risks for mountain goats and sympatric bighorn sheep. We recommend that managers determine the tolerance for disease risks associated with translocations that they and constituents are willing to accept. From this, an adaptive management program can be constructed wherein a portfolio of management actions are chosen based on risk tolerance in each population, combined with the amount that uncertainty is reduced when paired with monitoring, to improve mountain goat conservation efforts. About the speaker: Justin Gude has been the Wildlife Research & Technical Services (RTS) Bureau Chief for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks (FWP) since 2008. The RTS Bureau consists of wildlife research, health, biometrics, and survey programs, and their work covers a variety of taxa ranging in size from songbirds and bats to moose, in all corners of the state. Justin is responsible for overseeing the work of the RTS Bureau as well as ensuring integration of the wildlife research and management programs at FWP, so he is often involved in facilitating working groups such as that described in this presentation. He completed the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Decision Analysis Certification Program and has been involved in many structured decision-making processes, and he also is on the NC CASC- USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub Joint Stakeholder Committee.

NC CASC Webinar Series: Our Changing Fire Regimes Presented by: Jennifer Balch, NC CASC University Director, University of Colorado-Boulder  Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAsc-2qrTktGNfU0IFzgBhh-dLJwBzqlT47 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with information on how to join the meeting.   Abstract: There are three ingredients needed for fire: fuel to burn, hot & dry conditions, and an ignition source. People are changing all three. The number of wildfires and the area burned has increased over the past several decades, in western U.S. forests by 1500%. Last year was one of the most expensive wildfire seasons ever in the U.S., costing over $16B. We need to learn to live with fire, again. But how? Ultimately, we need to burn better and build better. About the Speaker: Dr. Jennifer Balch is University Director of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and Director of Earth Lab at the University of Colorado-Boulder. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography. Dr. Balch’s research aims to understand the patterns and processes that underlie disturbance and ecosystem recovery, particularly how people are shifting fire regimes and the consequences. Her work spans from temperate regions to the tropics exploring how the major ingredients to fire are changing: climate, fuels, and ignitions. She has conducted research in the field of fire ecology for nearly twenty years, and has lit a few experimental burns to understand the consequences of altered fire regimes.

Presented by: Koren R. Nydick, Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAqf-6spjkjE9c1XO_UYZvDSAFoQQ-JehN0 After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: Scenarios are a great tool to examine possible climate futures, play out potential consequences, and identify preemptive actions to prepare for and adapt to changes. In 2011 as science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, I led a fire management futures scenario planning exercise and over the next few years incorporated scenarios into resource stewardship planning for giant sequoias and other priority resources. Almost as soon as the scenarios were written, aspects of them began to play out in real-time, and this experience has continued in my role as Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park. As a result, we are learning about climate change in real-time, including how to react as well as prepare for the future. The emerging picture underscores the urgency of actions to adapt to a changing climate, the critical role of other interacting stressors, and the essential need for triage and prioritization. About the speaker: Koren Nydick has been the Chief of Resource Stewardship at Rocky Mountain National Park since 2018, overseeing the park's work on natural and cultural resources, planning and compliance, fire management, and research. Previously, she was an Ecologist and the park's science coordinator at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California. Before her career in the National Park Service, Koren lived in Colorado for over ten years, including earning a PhD at Colorado State University and working at the Mountain Studies Institute where she coordinated its first climate change workshop in 2006.

Presented by: Joel B. Smith Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0ocuyurT4pHNOkHKONQaLd-Wyq2G9Mos_j After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: In my early days of assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation, I was relatively optimistic about the ability of the United States to adapt its “managed systems” to the projected climate change impacts. Managed systems have active human involvement such as management of coasts abutting settlements, water supplies, and flood management. In contrast, I have always been concerned about climate change impacts on natural ecosystems and developing countries because of a relative lack of adaptive capacity. My optimism was born from assumptions that anthropogenically induced climate change would involve a gradual change in climate and, we assumed, small changes in variability. I also assumed that with our wealth, technical capacity, and strong governance, we could take the steps to substantially reduce potentially adverse impacts of climate change. Our society had built major water and transportation within a few decades, at a faster commensurate or faster than projected rates of climate change. This did not assume that we would get everything right and not make mistakes, but that we could largely manage the increased risks. Based on how the climate is changing and the difficulties we as a country have in addressing major challenges, I am now more pessimistic about how well we will do adapting to climate change. While temperatures are rising as had been forecast, sea levels may rise more than had been projected, and we are already seeing increases in climate variability and unexpected changes in hurricane formation and movement and in the extent of fires and fire behavior. As these changes in climate have been emerging, our ability to adapt to them appears to be more limited. Our political system can work to address serious problems when a broad consensus exists about the nature of problems and the need for action. We are a very divided country politically, unable to agree about the science of such pressing problems as climate change and even the coronavirus. Our society seems incapable of addressing long term problems such as the general decay in infrastructure or decreasing public funding for education. Will we be able to overcome such problems to not only substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions but invest hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars needed to adapt to observed and anticipated changes in climate? While we have the wealth, technology, and governance systems that enable us to adequately respond to emerging challenges such as climate change, will the combination of more destructive changes in climate and our inability to effectively overcome major policy challenges cause us to experience more adverse impacts of climate change than had been thought? Based on what I see I am concerned it could turn out that way. I will focus on fire and risks to the wildland urban interface as an example of rapidly growing climate risks managed through decentralized and inconsistent policy processes that may not be up to the major challenge of adaptation. About the speaker: Joel B. Smith has been analyzing climate change impacts and adaptation issues for over three decades. He was a coordinating lead author or lead author on the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mr. Smith was an author on three U.S. National Climate Change Assessments (NCA), including Chapter Lead on the International Chapter for the fourth NCA. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences “Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change.” Mr. Smith has provided technical advice, guidance, and training on assessing climate change impacts and adaptation to people around the world and to international organizations, the U.S. government, states, municipalities, and the non-profit and private sectors. He worked for the U.S. EPA from 1984 to 1992, where he was the deputy director of Climate Change Division. He has been a consultant since 1992 and is now an independent consultant. Mr. Smith was a coeditor of The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States (1989), As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications (1995), Adaptation to Climate Change: Assessments and Issues (1996), Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, and Development (2003), and The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Systems: A Comprehensive Analysis of California (2006). He has published more than 75 articles and chapters on climate change impacts and adaptation in peer-reviewed journals and books and has edited a number of books on climate change. Mr. Smith received a BA from Williams College in 1979 (graduating magna cum laude), and a Masters in Public Policy from the University of Michigan in 1982.

Presenters: Joseph J. Barsugli (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory) Stephen Torbit (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO - retired) John M. Guinotte (United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Lakewood, CO) Abstract: Persistent spring snowpack has been proposed to be an important factor to determine suitable habitat for wolverine, particularly for denning by pregnant females, based on correlative studies from the northern Rocky Mountains. Reduction in deep snow for denning resulting from climate change was cited in proposals to list wolverine under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and in subsequent litigation to force a listing under the ESA and a federal court agreed this component was a significant factor for the Fish and Wildlife Service to consider. An earlier climate change assessment had revealed significant loss of snowpack in the future in lower elevations in the Rocky Mountains, but the spatial resolution of modeling mountain snowpack was coarse enough to have limited value for assessing impacts on a scale relevant for wolverine conservation. We modeled the future impacts of climate change on persistent snow in occupied and historical wolverine habitats at a 250 meter resolution in order to explicitly understand the effects of topography, slope and aspect on snow cover persistence. We then compared those snow cover projections to existing data on known wolverine den locations and potential wolverine denning locations in the two study areas. The results demonstrate significant retention of snow cover at higher elevations within documented and predicted wolverine denning habitat in both study areas. We project persistent spring snow cover is significant, abundant, widely dispersed and available for wolverines across both study areas, and across several climate scenarios for the mid 21st century.

People, Nature, and Future Climate: Developing prioritized climate adaptation actions through a stakeholder driven process in southwest Colorado. Presenters: Renee Rondeau, Conservation Planner and Ecologist, Colorado Natural Heritage Program Marcie Bidwell, Executive Director, Mountain Studies Institute, Durango, CO Andrew Breibart, Hydrologist, BLM, Gunnison Field Office. Abstract: Climate science was the foundation for building adaptation strategies in two rural Colorado mountain communities. But science alone was not enough. In order to develop on-the-ground actions, people were essential. Over a three year period, over 70 stakeholders, representing 20 organizations worked with our science team that included social scientists, ecologists, and climate scientists. Three climate scenarios informed us that droughts, fires, and an increase in insects and disease are likely to change our natural and social systems. Our groups developed adaptation actions that fit into three overarching strategies that can help mitigate some of the climate impacts: 1) Identify, protect, and manage climate refugia, 2) Increase drought resiliency in focal areas, and 3) Allow and assist social and ecological transformation. On-the-ground wet meadow restoration efforts in Gunnison, a Drought-resiliency group in the Mancos Valley, and transformation research in Mesa Verde National Park are just three of the on-going projects that highlight the importance of building local climate working groups.