The viability of the whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) species is under threat due to precipitously declining populations.  This study investigates the sources of differing levels of concern about climate-driven effects on whitebark pine trees.  It also investigates support for different Whitebark Pine (WBP) management strategies on federal public lands. 

Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0121.1): Much of the academic literature and policy discussions about sustainable development and climate change adaptation focus on poor and developing nations, yet many tribal communities inside the United States include marginalized peoples and developing nations who face structural barriers to effectively adapt to climate change. There is a need to critically examine diverse climate change risks for indigenous peoples in the United States and the many structural barriers that limit their ability to adapt to climate change. This paper uses a sustainable climate adaptation framework to outline the context and the relationships of power and authority, along with different ways of knowing and meaning, to illustrate the underpinnings of some tribes’ barriers to sustainable climate adaptation. The background of those structural barriers for tribes is traced, and then the case of water rights and management at the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming is used to illustrate the interplay of policy, culture, climate, justice, and limits to adaptation. Included is a discussion about how the rulings of the Big Horn general stream adjudication have hindered tribal climate change adaptation by limiting the quantity of tribal reserved water rights, tying those rights to the sole purposes of agriculture, which undermines social and cultural connections to the land and water, and failing to recognizing tribal rights to groundwater. Future climate projections suggest increasing temperatures, and changes in the amount and timing of snowpack, along with receding glaciers, all of which impact water availability downstream. Therefore, building capacity to take control of land and water resources and preparing for climate change and drought at Wind River Reservation is of critical importance.

Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096317300153): In recent years, federal land management agencies in the United States have been tasked to consider climate change vulnerability and adaptation in their planning. Ecological vulnerability approaches have been the dominant framework, but these approaches have significant limitations for fully understanding vulnerability in complex social-ecological systems in and around multiple-use public lands. In this paper, we describe the context of United States federal public lands management with an emphasis on the Bureau of Land Management to highlight this unique decision-making context. We then assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ecological vulnerability approach for informing decision-making. Next, we review social vulnerability methods in the context of public lands to demonstrate what these approaches can contribute to our understanding of vulnerability, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we suggest some key design principles for integrated social-ecological vulnerability assessments considering the context of public lands management, the limits of ecological vulnerability assessment, and existing approaches to social vulnerability assessment. We argue for the necessity of including social vulnerability in a more integrated social-ecological approach in order to better inform climate change adaptation.

In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions.   This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern Colorado: Phase 1”. Phase 1 focused on developing integrated social-ecological science and adaptation strategies for four target landscapes: spruce-fir forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, sagebrush scrublands, and seeps, springs and wetlands.   Phase 2 will further advance adaptation strategy development in the region and share the results with other communities, land managers, and decision-makers. Specifically, researchers will identify concrete actions that can be taken to carry out each adaptation strategy, and will develop solutions to address barriers identified by stakeholders in Phase 1 that could impede implementation. Ultimately, this project will result in landscape-scale conservation goals and actions that conserve key species, ecosystems, and resources, address the economic and social systems of local communities, and provide science resources for natural resource managers in the face of a changing climate.

The goal of this project was to identify climate-related scientific information needs in the North Central region that will support the management of key species and help avoid species declines. Researchers worked closely with state fish and wildlife agencies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, tribes, and other relevant natural resource management and conservation agencies to identify priority information needs and to design and implement studies that will address these needs.   Researchers identified stakeholders, including those engaged by the North Central Climate Science Center USGS Liaisons project. Researchers worked with stakeholders to identify priority conservation targets. Selected targets were those that are of high priority to managers, are the subject of a pending or planned decision or action, and for which the decision would benefit from information on climate change exposure, impacts, or adaptation. The outcome was the identification of key climate science needs that can help advance near-term conservation decision-making. As a final component of the project, researchers initiated working groups to spearhead the development of research plans that can address these priority, stakeholder-defined climate science needs in the region. These working groups were comprised of management representatives and researchers affiliated with the North Central Climate Science Center.   By working closely with resource managers to identify information gaps and initiate plans to address these gaps, this project was designed to support the development of usable, relevant, and timely science that directly addresses on-the-ground needs.

In the North Central U.S., the rate and extent of changing climate conditions has been increasing in recent decades. These changes include shifting precipitation patterns, warming temperatures, and more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and floods. As these changes occur, managers face different challenges and have different needs, depending on the resources they manage. For example, water managers are focused on responding to changes in water availability, while wildlife managers may be more concerned with changing habitat conditions – whether it be for migratory waterfowl, coldwater fish, or large mammals.   In the face of these changes, managers are seeking effective strategies for managing resources. To meet this goal, managers require usable and timely information that is relevant to current needs – known as “actionable science”. The goal of this project is to identify best practices for developing actionable science results, which are often built around strong stakeholder engagement. Researchers will evaluate the different processes – including mechanisms of stakeholder engagement – that have been employed by the North Central Climate Science Center to provide managers with actionable science that supports climate adaptation planning. By identifying best practices for stakeholder engagement, this project will support the North Central CSC’s mission to ensure that their science directly addresses on-the-ground management needs.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Adaptation Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.  

In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning.   To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during the 21st century; (2) work with stakeholders to provide climate data that can be used to assess climate impacts; (3) improve the usability of an existing drought early warning and monitoring tool known as the Evaporative Drought Demand Index; and (4) develop a new drought monitoring tool to provide better information about moisture availability in soils. Researchers aim to continue to develop and provide information on potential future climate conditions for specific areas that are of interest to stakeholders, in order to understand potential impacts and develop adaptation strategies.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Climate Drivers Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.

One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning, in which climate models are used to identify different plausible climate conditions, known as “scenarios”, for a particular area.   In a previous project, researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center worked with natural resource managers at Badlands National Park and on surrounding federal lands to model how different climate scenarios and management activities would impact the area’s resources. The model that was developed answers critical “what if” questions regarding how management actions might affect focal resources, such as grazing lands, under different future climate conditions. Building on this work, researchers will produce management-relevant publications that translate the previous project’s results into a format that can support management planning.   Using insights gained from the previous project, researchers will also design a process for integrating scenario planning and climate science into National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategies. These strategies are part of NPS’s streamlined approach for guiding prioritization of a park’s investments in resource stewardship. Researchers will work with Devils Tower National Monument in Wyoming as a case study for this integration effort.

This project conducts an interdisciplinary, technical assessment of key social-ecological vulnerabilities, risks, and response capacities of the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) to inform development of decision tools to support drought preparedness. It also provides opportunities for 1) development of tribal technical capacity for drought preparedness, and 2) educational programming guided by tribal needs, Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), and indigenous observations of drought for tribal members, with a longer-term goal of transferring lessons learned to other tribes and non-tribal entities. This project has foundational partnerships between the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the WRIR, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the North Central Climate Science Center (NCCSC) at Colorado State University, University of Wyoming EPSCoR, and multiple government agencies and university partners to develop decision tools to support drought preparedness. Other partners include the USDA Northern Plains Regional Climate Hub and NRCS, the Western Water Assessment at CU Boulder, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), the High Plains Regional Climate Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, USGS, BIA, Great Northern LCC, and other North Central University Consortium scientists. The project’s decision target is a WRIR Drought Management Plan that integrates state-of-the art climate science with hydrologic, social, and ecological vulnerabilities and risks, and identifies response capacities and strategies to support the Tribal Water Code and related resources management.