As part of a broader effort to increase the ability of federal agencies to understand and adapt to changes in climate variability and hazard profiles, the Colorado Bureau of Land Management has commissioned an on-going research effort to gather and analyze information on the potential climate-related vulnerabilities of the numerous communities and businesses that rely upon the state’s 8.4 million acres of BLM-managed public lands. In addition to a comprensive final report (Colorado Bureau of Land Management: Social Climate Vulnerability Assessment), the project team has produced three short, easy to read "Fact Sheets" aimed at providing a concise view of each of the project's components and their major findings.

As part of a broader effort to increase the ability of federal agencies to understand and adapt to changes in climate variability and hazard profiles, the Colorado Bureau of Land Management has commissioned an on-going research effort to gather and analyze information on the potential climate-related vulnerabilities of the numerous communities and businesses that rely upon the state’s 8.4 million acres of BLM-managed public lands. This report contains the initial findings of this project, and details work conducted between 2015 and 2017 centered around three main questions: 1. What efforts are currently underway within the Colorado BLM to address changes in climate and the climate vulnerabilities of public land users? 2. What are the characteristics of connections between public lands and communities across the state? 3. How are land-based livelihoods (such as ranching and recreational outfitting) that rely upon public land resources affected by changes in long-term weather patterns, extreme events, and associated BLM decision-making? To answer these questions, we took a mixed-methods approach. To better understand existing work on climate change within the Colorado BLM, we extensively reviewed existing resource management plans, resource advisory council notes, and other policy documents. In order to establish a state-wide view of patterns of communities, their characteristics, and their connection to BLM-managed resources, we conducted a geospatial analysis of multiple publicly available socio-demographic and economic datasets, as well as numerous BLM field office records on usage patterns and intensity. Finally, we also conducted two in-depth, qualitative case studies in two field office management areas with well-known connections to public land resources. Here, we used interviews with BLM staff, grazing permittees, recreational outfitters, and other business operators with ties to BLM-managed lands to better understand how climate hazards and shifts in seasonal weather patterns play out on the ground for public land users and the numerous communities across the state whose economies are closely linked to public land management policy. Throughout this process, we have aimed to compile and synthesize information that will allow field office managers and staff to ensure that future policies and management actions reflect the strengths, vulnerabilities, and needs of the diverse communities that rely upon public lands across the state.

Since 2014, the High Plains Regional Climate Center, along with several partners, has worked with the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the Wind River Indian Reservation in western Wyoming. The reservation is located in an arid, mountainous region that is prone to water resource issues. Through input from numerous workshops, webinars, and calls with tribal representatives, the HPRCC created a series of quarterly climate summaries to help the tribes make better informed on-reservation water management decisions. This Decision Dashboard is complementary to the summaries, allowing for more real-time monitoring of climate and drought conditions. This work was funded by the North Central CSC, through the project "The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness".

The Colorado office of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which administers 8.4 million acres of Colorado’s surface acres, and more than 29 million acres of sub‐surface mineral estate, has been charged with developing a climate adaptation strategy for BLM lands within the state. The assessments presented herein present a statewide perspective on the potential future influences of a changing climate on species and ecosystems of particular importance to the BLM, with the goal of facilitating development of the best possible climate adaptation strategies to meet future conditions. The Colorado Natural Heritage Program conducted climate change vulnerability assessments of plant and animal species, and terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (“targets”) within a time frame of mid‐21st century. Our assessments 1) evaluate the potential impact of future climate conditions on both species and ecosystems by identifying the degree of change expected between current and future climate conditions within the Colorado range of the target, and 2) address the potential impact of non‐climate factors that can affect the resilience of the target to climate change, or which are likely to have a greater impact due to climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessments are not an end unto themselves, but are intended to help BLM managers identify areas where action may mitigate the effects of climate change, recognize potential novel conditions that may require additional analysis, and characterize uncertainties inherent in the process.

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. EDDI is multi-scalar, meaning that this period—or "timescale"—can vary to capture drying dynamics that themselves operate at different timescales; we generate EDDI at 1-week through 12-month timescales. This webpage offers a frequently updated assessment of current conditions across CONUS, southern parts of Canada, and northern parts of Mexico; a tool to generate historical time series of EDDI for a user-selected region; introductions to the EDDI team; and a list of resources for users to explore EDDI and its applications further.

Sagebrush steppe is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems in North America. Found in eleven western states, this important yet fragile ecosystem is dominated by sagebrush, but also contains a diversity of native shrubs, grasses, and flowering plants. It provides critical habitat for wildlife like pronghorn and threatened species such as the greater sage-grouse, and is grazed by livestock on public and private lands. However, this landscape is increasingly threatened by shifts in wildfire patterns, the spread of invasive grasses, and changing climate conditions. While sagebrush is slow to recover after fires, non-native grasses such as cheatgrass thrive in post-fire conditions and the spread of these species can increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. These changes to the sagebrush ecosystems have implications for big game, threatened wildlife, and ranching. To address this growing concern, resource managers will often try to limit the spread of exotic grasses after fire events by applying herbicides, or will help native species recover through seeding or planting. However, these treatments have mixed results, and poor success is often attributed to droughts, which make it more difficult for seeds and native plants to survive; to the limited amount of time in which these treatments can be applied (usually in the first year after a fire); or because the seeds or plants used aren’t adapted to the environmental conditions of the location where they’re applied. The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of the factors that affect post-fire treatment success. Researchers will use data collected from more than 300 fires over the last 40 years, after which treatments were applied. They will identify the impacts of drought on those treatments, how incorporating information on drought forecasts or extending the period over which treatments are applied could have altered the outcomes, and how managers can better select plant material that will be more adaptable to the conditions of planting locations. Addressing this knowledge gap has been identified as a high priority in the DOI Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy, by the BLM Emergency Stabilization and Rehabilitation Program, and by state management agencies in the West. The results of this project will support adaptive management of sagebrush ecosystems, which will be critical if these ecologically and economically important landscapes are to be maintained into the future. This project was jointly funded by the Southwest, Northwest, and North Central CASCs.

The Missouri River system is the life-blood of the American Midwest, providing critical water resources that drive the region’s agriculture, industry, hydroelectric power generation, and ecosystems. The basin has a long history of development and diversion of water resources, meaning that streamflow records that reflect natural, unmanaged flows over the past century have been rare. As a result, research on the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation in driving droughts and surface water variability in the Missouri River Basin has lagged behind similar work done in other major basins in the country, and has hindered drought planning efforts.  To address this need, researchers will use tree-rings to develop reconstructions of historic, natural streamflow in the Upper Missouri River Basin. This will be the first such network of hydrologic reconstructions for the basin. Specifically, the tree-ring analysis will provide information on precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for the basin going back 800 years. This historical information will then be used to explore the drivers of drought and periods of high flow in the basin, beyond just precipitation. For example, evidence suggests that temperature is an increasingly important driver of drought, and an analysis of the impacts of warming temperatures on streamflow can be used to help managers anticipate future impacts on water supplies in the basin. Lastly, researchers will work closely with engineers and water managers with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation to integrate information on droughts and natural variability in streamflow into their water operations and drought planning efforts. Through this effort, researchers will seek to address questions such as “what are the impacts to current water operations under severe droughts, like the 1930s Dust Bowl or 1500s megadrought?” and “how could operations be changed to improve water management for droughts like these, given projected future warming?”. This information will help water managers in the Missouri River Basin develop adaptation strategies to manage the future range of potential drought and flood events in the basin, ultimately helping to reduce the billions of dollars that these events cost today in infrastructure and economic impact.

Changing climate conditions can make water management planning and drought preparedness decisions more complicated than ever before. Resource managers can no longer rely solely on historical data and trends to base their actions, and are in need of science that is relevant to their specific needs and can directly inform important planning decisions. Questions remain, however, regarding the most effective and efficient methods for extending scientific knowledge and products into management and decision-making. This study analyzed two unique cases of water management to better understand how science can be translated into resource management actions and decision-making.  In particular, this project sought to understand 1) the characteristics that make science actionable and useful for water resource management and drought preparedness, and 2) the ideal types of scientific knowledge or science products that facilitate the use of science in management and decision-making. The first case study focused on beaver mimicry, an emerging nature-based solution that increases the presence of wood and woody debris in rivers and streams to mimic the actions of beavers. This technique has been rapidly adopted by natural resource managers as a way to restore riparian areas, increase groundwater infiltration, and slow surface water flow so that more water is available later in the year during hotter and dryer months. The second case study focused on an established research program, Colorado Dust on Snow, that provides water managers with scientific information explaining how the movement of dust particles from the Colorado Plateau influences hydrology and the timing and intensity of snow melt and water runoff into critical water sources. This program has support from and is being used by several water conservation districts in the state. Understanding how scientific knowledge translates into action and decision-making in these cases is expected to strengthen our knowledge of actionable science in the context of drought and its impacts on ecosystems. The project team gathered qualitative data through stakeholder interviews and will conduct an extensive literature review. Findings from these efforts will also be incorporated into a broader Intermountain West synthesis effort to determine and assess commonalities and differences among socio-ecological aspects of drought adaptation and planning.