Project Overview A collaborative research team including the North Central CASC, University of Oklahoma, and College of the Muscogee Nation will conduct ethnographic interviews in the Mvskoke Language (Opvnvkv) documenting Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge (IK) on several culturally significant species relevant to climate adaptation. The findings will support local management efforts by providing educational curricula on wild foods, scientific publications, and resources to support Mvskoke language revitalization efforts. Project Summary Across the United States, climate change and habitat loss threaten species and wild foods that are deeply tied to cultural identity, traditions, and language. Mvskoke Indigenous Knowledge (IK) offers invaluable insights to climate adaptation strategies for culturally and ecologically significant species within the southeastern homelands and current jurisdictions of the Muscogee (Creek) Nation. To support conservation efforts, this project seeks to integrate Mvskoke IK into climate adaptation strategies for culturally significant species and wild foods. Jaguars, in particular, are culturally significant as well as apex predators that play a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem structure, and their conservation has wide-ranging benefits for biodiversity. This project aims to document Mvskoke IK to explore culturally appropriate conservation and climate adaptation approaches for local wild foods and culturally significant species, enhance understanding of jaguar historical distributions and inform conservation efforts, and support Mvskoke language and cultural revitalization efforts. To do this, focus group discussions will be hosted to co-design objectives and ensure ethical approaches. Additionally, ethnographic interviews will be conducted with nine Mvskoke elders in the Mvskoke language (Opvnvkv) to document IK on climate-vulnerable species. Collected data will be transcribed, translated, and analyzed to create educational materials on wild foods, a Mvskoke language database for the College of the Muscogee Nation, a management report for the Muscogee (Creek) Nation outlining practical applications of Mvskoke IK, and an ethnobiology manuscript evaluating Mvskoke IK on jaguars as evidence of historical habitation in the southeastern region. By co-developing ethical and effective pathways for integrating Mvskoke IK into climate adaptation efforts, this project will contribute to conservation efforts while strengthening Mvskoke cultural heritage and resilience.  To complement Mvskoke IK insights, a national-scale species distribution model (SDM) will be developed to assess historical and future habitat suitability for the jaguar across the contiguous United States, with emphasis on the Southeast. The model integrates vetted global jaguar presence records with 26 candidate environmental and anthropogenic variables and span both baseline (2000–2014) and mid-century (2055, SSP3–7.0) time periods. This study will test IK-informed hypotheses regarding southeastern jaguar presence and may challenge prevailing assumptions in North American historical ecology, highlighting new opportunities for landscape-scale recovery planning that centers both cultural and ecological restoration.

As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing habitats, species, and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs isn’t required and capacity to do so is limited at most state agencies, resulting in varied consideration of climate change impacts. In support of the revisions to multiple State Wildlife Action Plans in the North Centra region, the North Central CASC is providing resources, synthesis, and case-studies to incorporate how climate change is relevant to wildlife and habitat conservation. The North Central CASC aims to provide concise information of available science describing how climate change is impacting state-specific species and habitats of concern, and the types of management actions that may support positive outcomes for wildlife and habitats.   For some states, case studies provide relatable and relevant examples of how management practices and priorities might consider both direct and indirect climate change impacts. Specifically, the project team is collaborating with state agencies in North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming to produce SWAP relevant products that will inform species and habitat management priorities and plans outlined within the State Wildlife Action Plan revisions. 

A key assumption behind many predictions of ecosystem response to climate change is that plant species will track their suitable climates through space and time. However, climate connectivity – the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement – will strongly influence how plants are able to move through the landscape. Forward-looking, climate change-informed conservation and protected area stewardship requires an understanding of climate connectivity. Several factors affect climate connectivity and plant species movements, such as the distance that needs to be traveled to track suitable climate, which may exceed the dispersal ability of many species. Additionally, land use intensity in the unprotected matrix will limit climate-induced range shifts among protected areas for some species. Exposure to increasingly dissimilar climates may also impede climate-induced range shifts. While these constraints on species range shifts are well established, they have not yet been integrated to predict species-specific range movements and identify where intervention might be necessary to facilitate climate connectivity. Building on previous research, this project will develop species-specific assessments of climate connectivity and potential range shifts for a suite of management-relevant species within the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center's protected area network including national forests and the unprotected matrix of federal, private, and tribal lands.

This dataset represents a climate-informed management alternative for maintaining whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical climate and three future climate change scenarios - the HadGEM-ES, CESM1-CAM5, and CNRM-CM5 Global Circulation Models under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. We worked with the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee's (GYCC) Whitebark Pine Subcommittee to develop this spatial representation of their current management strategy. The treatments mapped represent a set of the treatments recommended in the GYCC Whitebark Pine 2011 Strategy document and include planting blister-rust resistant whitebark pine seedlings, competition removal thinning, wildland fire use and prescribed fire, and protection from mountain pine beetles using verbenone and carbaryl. We used historical and future projections of climate suitability based on species distribution models for whitebark pine (Chang et al. 2014) to map zones of core, deteriorating, and future whitebark pine habitat. Core zones were those areas that are currently suitable for whitebark and remain suitable in the future. Deteriorating zones were where the climatic conditions for whitebark pine are expected to decline. Future zones were areas that are projected to become newly suitable for whitebark pine. We then overlaid our climate zones for whitebark pine with similar projections of future climate suitability for all of whitebark pine’s competitors - Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir, lodgepole pine, and Douglas-fir (Piekielek et al. 2015. We discussed the different combinations of climate suitability zones (core, deteriorating, future) and potential future level of competition (low or high) from other species with the GYCC Whitebark Pine Subcommittee to determine which management activities should be prioritized within each management zone. The result is a map of management zones where different activities are prioritized to meet the goal of maintaining whitebark pine populations. This was used to determine which treatments would be implemented spatially during the simulation modeling, dependent upon additional criteria related to simulated stand-level conditions.

This dataset represents current management alternatives for maintaining whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical climate and three future climate change scenarios - the HadGEM-ES, CESM1-CAM5, and CNRM-CM5 Global Circulation Models under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. We worked with the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee's (GYCC) Whitebark Pine Subcommittee to develop this spatial representation of their current management strategy. The treatments mapped represent a set of the treatments recommended in the GYCC Whitebark Pine 2011 Strategy document and include planting blister-rust resistant whitebark pine seedlings, competition removal thinning, wildland fire use and prescribed fire, and protection from mountain pine beetles using verbenone and carbaryl. For the current management strategy, we relied on differences in land allocation classes and proximity to roads and trails to determine where treatments would occur. Land allocations were derived from a federal land ownership layer (https://catalog.data.gov/harvest/object/6bec8d3c-fff4-4037-8028-9b1d7ff64814/html/original). We mapped the proximity to roads/trails by buffering all roads/trails as mapped by the GYCC Whitebark Pine Subcommittee.The types of treatments that can be implemented in the current strategy are constrained by access, logistics, and management constraints among different jurisdictions. Through discussions with the GYCC Whitebark pine Subcommittee we mapped available treatments based on land allocation and proximity to roads in the following zones: Zone 1: Multiple use forest (non-Wilderness & inventoried roadless areas on USFS/BLM lands) farther than 1-mile from roads/trails. Available treatments: thinning, prescribed fire, wildland use fire, 80% fire suppression. Zone 2: Multiple use forest (non-Wilderness & inventoried roadless areas on USFS/BLM lands) within 1-mile from roads/trails. Available treatments: planting, thinning, prescribed fire, wildland use fire, 80% fire suppression. Zone 3: NPS non-wilderness lands farther than 1 mile from roads/trails. Available treatments: thinning, prescribed fire, wildland use fire, 20% fire suppression. Zone 4: NPS, non-wilderness lands within 1 mile from roads/trails. Available treatments: planting, thinning, prescribed fire, wildland use fire, 20% fire suppression. Zone 5: Non-federal lands (private, state, Native American lands, but we do include USFWS lands here). Available treatments: none, full fire suppression. Zone 6: Wilderness lands (designated, proposed and wilderness study areas) administered by NPS. Available treatments: wildland fire use, 20% fire suppression Zone 7: Wilderness lands (designated, proposed and wilderness study areas) administered by USFS/BLM. Available treatments: wildland fire use, 20% fire suppression

Project Overview   Infectious disease poses a growing threat to wildlife and human health, and managing disease threats is complicated by climatic changes that can change levels of disease risk. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will co-develop a method to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change, providing critical useable information to Montana’s wildlife managers. This information will be used to proactively manage infectious wildlife diseases and will be integrated into management planning documents, like the State Wildlife Action Plan. Project Summary   Infectious disease is a pressing concern for wildlife conservation and human health. Natural resource managers face a wide range of potential disease threats, but often have little information about effective management strategies or about various levels of potential risk. Climate change further complicates this challenge by rapidly shifting disease risk and introducing new threats. To prioritize limited resources, managers need clear, accessible information on how climate impacts wildlife diseases. Stakeholders in the North Central region (including partners at Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks) have communicated this need for a better understanding of climate change impacts on wildlife disease and have requested scientific support to help compile and integrate this information into key management documents like State Wildlife Action Plans. This project seeks to co-develop an approach to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change and apply this approach to identify high-priority threats for imperiled wildlife and aquatic species in Montana. The approach will combine existing scientific research with strong user engagement. A major outcome of the project will be integrating climate and disease information into Montana’s revised State Wildlife Action Plan, enabling the state to receive funding for and take on-the-ground actions targeting infectious disease impacts on wildlife. Understanding future disease threats under climate change is critical for implementing proactive management strategies that effectively limit disease spread. This project will also generate broadly relevant information on the management of novel disease threats under a changing climate, helping to better integrate disease management into climate adaptation science.

Project Overview The iconic grizzly bear of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has exhibited a remarkable recovery in response to concerted conservation actions implemented since its listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1975. However, information regarding the potential effects and timing of climate change in conjunction with increasing human recreation and development will be important for future management of this population. Investigating these potential impacts and providing manager with a range of actionable options to mitigate their effects is the goal of this study. Researchers supported by this North Central project will use grizzly bear demographic and climate data to collaboratively develop an adaptive decision framework with park managers to evaluate demographic response of grizzly bears under different climate and human use scenarios. The decision framework can be adapted to other species and ecosystems and used by resource managers to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wildlife in the region. Project Summary The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is home to most of North America's large mammal species, but climate change, continued land development, and other human activities may threaten the diverse wildlife in the ecosystem. Among the region’s iconic species, the grizzly bear draws visitors from across the globe. Grizzly bears in the lower 48 states are listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and they live a long time and reproduce slowly, which make populations especially vulnerable to even small changes in demographic rates prompted by changes in habitat and food resources, human activities, and climate change. Understanding how these factors influence grizzly bears is necessary to mitigate impacts to the viability of this species for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of current and future generations. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop “Best Management Practices” that will optimize the future viability of grizzly bears as they respond to a rapidly changing ecosystem. Three national park units in the region (Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and the John D. Rockefeller, Jr. Memorial Parkway) serve as important refugia for grizzly bears and other wildlife. This project will inform resource management decisions across the three national parks for this iconic species by developing an adaptive decision framework built from extensive grizzly bear population data and climate assessments. This approach will allow the project team to predict future scenarios and identify potential population tipping points.   Multiple workshops with managers will be held to review scientific findings and co-produce the decision analysis, which will be transferable to other species, ecosystems, and resource management agencies. The output from this project can be used by National Park Service and other resource managers to address potential climate change and human impacts on iconic wildlife populations of this ecosystem.

Project Overview Climate change and human activities are threatening many sensitive aquatic species in prairie streams across the Great Plains region. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will combine and analyze data collected independently by Great Plains states to identify thresholds of environmental change that may lead to species loss and changes in aquatic communities. This information can guide managers in deciding whether to resist, accept, or direct change in these ecosystems to protect organisms and ecosystem services. Project Summary Prairie streams provide economic, recreational, and municipal services for human society and critical habitat for aquatic organisms including fish, crayfish, and mussels. However, environmental conditions in and around these streams have been significantly altered by landcover conversion, road and dam construction, and climate change. Many organisms in streams are sensitive to these environmental changes, which often dictate where and when they can successfully survive. Yet, across the Great Plains, there is limited knowledge about thresholds in environmental conditions that cause some organisms to disappear from local habitat. This research team will work with managers and conservation practitioners across Great Plains states to predict the level of environmental change that leads to changes in species composition across the region. Independent data collection efforts (stream monitoring data and data of aquatic species’ assemblages) across states in the Great Plains will be combined, analyzed, and summarized to identify these thresholds of environmental change and estimate the overall health of streams in prairie ecosystems. Not all prairie stream organisms will be able to track their ideal environmental conditions, so on-the-ground management actions will be needed to promote the persistence of some species. Results from this project will provide essential data to guide management and decision-making on where and when to implement actions to deal with climate and human-induced shifts in the presence and composition of aquatic organisms.

Project Overview: Native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYA) are ecologically and socio-economically important species, but are threatened by drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will use climate data and extensive population records to assess the various threats to the species and to create a data visualization tool to help managers prioritize conservation actions for these vulnerable and valuable fish populations. Project Summary: In the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species are threatening the persistence of native fishes, including trout and whitefish. These fishes have enormous ecological and socioeconomic value. Recreationally, for example, hundreds of millions of dollars are spent by tourists each year to fish for these species. Understanding the vulnerability of these populations to interacting climate-related threats is critical for informing management decisions. Researchers supported by this project will use extensive records (from over 10,000 sites) collected by multiple management agencies and project partners, and climate data across the GYA to: (1) determine the effect of multiple threats on populations of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish; (2) identify the vulnerability of populations to climate change; and (3) use this information to help resource managers identify and prioritize actions that will benefit native fishes, and to identify locations where taking action would be most beneficial. Results from this project will be incorporated into the RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) decision framework and distributed to managers through a series of workshops. The workshops will also allow the managers to help the project team build a public data visualization tool that best suits their needs. The tool will compile data and modeling results from the project and display current and future vulnerabilities of fish populations to threats at local and regional spatial scales. These products will help managers make informed decisions about how to best allocate limited time and money towards conservation of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish.

Project Overview Migratory big game species, like mule deer, are at risk due to human development and more frequent drought events that can limit access to food resources during migration. To address this, researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will collaborate with State, Tribal, and Federal agencies to examine the effectiveness of corridor conservation as a strategy to improve drought resilience for over 40 mule deer herds across Western states. Ultimately, results from this project will benefit ongoing conservation efforts by identifying what levels of development impacts the species’ ability to deal with drought. Project Summary Every year, migratory big game move across landscapes to seek out important food resources and to avoid harsh weather. Yet, the landscapes animals move through are experiencing rapid changes from human development and shifting climatic conditions, which put these ecologically and culturally important migrations at risk. Mule deer, for example, are negatively impacted by drought, which changes when and where key food resources will be available along their migration route. To conserve big game migrations, State, Tribal, and Federal agencies are working together to map and protect migration corridors. Although it is often assumed that corridor conservation should enhance the resilience of migrants to climate change, the idea remains poorly tested. This project will examine the effectiveness of corridor conservation as a drought resiliency strategy for mule deer across the West. As climate change leads to more frequent and longer drought events, it will likely become even more important for deer to freely move and access critical and limited food resources during migrations. At the same time, mule deer movements are altered by human disturbances, which can cause deer to miss out on foraging opportunities. This project will bring together data and partnerships to investigate these two threats on more than 40 mule deer herds across the West, with the aim of understanding the importance of freedom of movement in the survival and resiliency of mule deer in a changing world. Results from this project will identify the amount of human development that constrains the movements of mule deer and the impacts of diminished mobility on drought resiliency. This research links two USGS priorities – conserving big game migrations and enhancing climate resiliency – while filling important knowledge gaps needed to strategically target ongoing conservation efforts.