Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic conditions to help optimize management strategies of wildlife and cattle. Project Summary Prairie dogs are crucial to North America’s Central Grasslands, creating habitat for other wildlife by digging burrows and clipping vegetation, and serving as a key food source for many predators. However, the sylvatic plague, a non-native disease with over 99% mortality in prairie dogs leads to sudden population die-offs followed by several years of recovery. While wildlife that depend on prairie dogs for food and habitat are negatively affected when populations collapse, the recovery period can cause conflicts with livestock producers, as prairie dogs decrease the available vegetation for grazing cattle. Researchers supported by this project will create an interactive web-based tool that can be used by managers and stakeholders for decision support, as the tool predicts where and when prairie dog colony growth and collapses are likely to occur under changing climatic conditions. This should allow managers to strategically reduce the likelihood of undesirable outcomes for wildlife and livestock. Additionally, the interactive tool will help users determine the best management approaches to achieve their specific goals and will evaluate different management strategies with a cost analysis assessment. This project will involve a diverse group of stakeholders from state and federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, and Tribal Nations to co-produce the tool. A decision support tool is much needed to facilitate co-existence of the prairie dog ecosystem with local communities and livestock producers, especially under an increasingly uncertain and changing climate.

As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of these species and the cultural implications for the Tribe in order to enhance food sovereignty and cultural resiliency, improve tribal health, and maintain local biodiversity.   The project will assess the presence and distribution of valued species including subalpine fir, juneberry, chokecherry, and others, while engaging the community in discussions around access and community needs. Adopting a holistic approach to climate change assessment, traditional ecological knowledge and the cultural implications of climate change will be an integral and innovative aspect of the project. Community meetings, elder interviews, and youth engagement sessions will contribute to understanding the interconnected issues of protecting significant species and culture in their full complexity. Scenarios of future climate change impacts on the plant species and the community will be explored to inform planning and management decisions and the Fort Belknap Indian Community Climate Adaptation Plan. 

Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be generally reduced in the future because of multiple factors including climate change, increased drought frequency and severity, and altered water and land use. Thus, it is important resource managers understand which areas are most vulnerable to reduced water availability impacts, and to what extent current conditions may change.   This project aims to create an index, the Surface-Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe), to determine when and where surface water will remain permanent on the landscape. It will build on previous work looking at streamflow permanence (using the USGS PROSPER model), surface-water inundation extent (using the USGS DSWE model), and wetland extents and permanence (using remotely sensed vegetation characteristics). Outcomes of this work will deliver crucial information on where surface water is most likely to be reduced under drought conditions.   The research team will also work with partners to develop index outputs that are useful for exploring current and potential future surface-water availability characteristics and how they might affect bison behavior. This information linking surface-water permanence with wildlife behavior will be critical to improving the ability to mitigate the potential effects of reduced surface-water availability for wildlife and humans. 

Over the last half-century, grassland bird populations have declined far more than any other bird group in North America. This is because native grasslands were largely replaced with croplands, and many remaining prairies are degraded. Land managers and conservation organizations are racing to preserve and restore these ecosystems to stem further loss of grassland birds. Given limited resources, bird habitat models are needed to help managers prioritize where conservation efforts will be most effective. In addition to habitat loss and degradation from land use change, altered fire regimes, and woody encroachment, increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely change temperatures and rainfall patterns across North American grasslands. The effects of these changes in climate are expected to cascade to vegetation communities and the bird species that depend on them. To date, predictions for bird responses to a changing climate have focused on changes in temperature and precipitation, but vegetation productivity (and therefore grassland bird habitat) also depends on factors such as vegetation type and soils. In this project, researchers will study how vegetation influences grassland birds across the western Great Plains and create maps of projected bird distribution given vegetation and land use change under multiple future climate scenarios. Anticipating future bird distribution will help partners understand the regional and climate contexts of site-level projects, including USDA-Agriculture Research Service scientists seeking to target real world solutions for grazing land management that enhance livestock production and bird conservation. These maps will also help Audubon Rockies as they plan expansion of the Conservation Ranching Initiative, which helps ensure livestock grazing operations are “bird friendly” and will provide guidance for conservation actions implemented by Private Lands Biologists with Bird Conservancy of the Rockies. Modules and a web-based application accompanying these maps will increase capacity among Federal, State, Tribal, and private land managers and decision makers in their conservation planning under a changing climate.

Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This phenomenon will likely become more common as climate change causes increasingly severe droughts, and larger sections of streams become seasonally dry. This could lead to local loss of native prairie fishes, an already at-risk group. Fisheries managers in Wyoming and Montana have limited data on climate impacts to prairie fishes, limiting their ability to prioritize management actions. This is in part because the ecology and possible climate adaptation strategies for many prairie fishes are poorly understood. Managers also have limited time to assess the success of potential restoration actions to increase fish resilience to seasonal drying and ways to increase refuge habitat. This project aims to provide landscape-level maps and resources that will help managers prioritize where and for which species management actions, such as water and habitat conservation and restoration measures, could be most beneficial. A research team will assess which species are most sensitive to drought in addition to expanding a newly created model of streamflow permanence to map drought refuges for vulnerable species. The project will also monitor stream restoration case studies to determine if process-based restoration techniques can be used to increase streamflow permanence and connectivity. Lastly, this work will be leveraged to create a short, species-specific guide to climate adaptation techniques. This guide will help agencies, landowners, conservation districts, and public interest groups determine what can be done to benefit at-risk species in their area of interest.

The Northern Glaciated Plains in the upper Midwest United States is a region where fishing generates millions of dollars a year for local and state economies. Maintaining these revenues requires the management of fish populations that are popular and accessible (e.g. boat ramps, public land access) to anglers. Fisheries throughout the world are currently undergoing unprecedented changes to water levels and habitat quality resulting from climate change. The consequences of climate change to Northern Glaciated Plains fisheries are unknown but pose an immediate challenge for resource managers as angler access and opportunities can be jeopardized when: a) boat ramps become inaccessible due to changing water levels, and b) altered water quality negatively affects desired fish species. This project aims to provide fisheries managers with information about how climate change may alter the hydrology of Northern Glaciated Plains lakes and the impact those changes may have on fish communities, angler access, angler behavior, and angler expenditures. A hydrologic model will be used to predict changes in lake size and water quality based on weather conditions under a changing climate. This information will then be used to 1) predict changes in fish communities, 2) identify current angler access locations that are at risk of becoming inaccessible, 3) determine whether anglers will change the amount of time they spend fishing, and 4) decern how these changes ultimately affect the amount of money anglers spend in this region. By understanding which lakes will experience change and how, fisheries managers will be able to make decisions at state or regional levels about infrastructure development (number and location of new boat ramps) and ecosystem management (species and locations of fish stocking) that will maintain angler satisfaction and the economic benefits of recreational fisheries.

In 1969, researchers developed the first global circulation model (Ruttiman 2006); however, it was not until 2014 that modelers first attempted a global ecosystem and biodiversity model that included human pressures (i.e., the Madingley Model) (Harfoot et al. 2014). Other large-scale models of biodiversity exist, such as GLOBIO (Alkemade et al. 2009), but to date there are no well accepted global biodiversity models similar to global circulation models that can help guide global biodiversity policy development and targets. The lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity for climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to determine similarities and differences in modeling approaches to inform development of integrated global biodiversity modeling approaches. More accurate and comprehensive biodiversity models are needed to understand how countries individually and as a whole are progressing towards the internationally defined targets (e.g., Aichi Biodiversity Targets and Sustainable Development Goals) to inform global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use (Tittensor 2014). In addition, the scenarios and modeling summary from the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) identified a need for better assessment of biodiversity models and progress towards more global models. Collaborative approaches between the biodiversity and global climate modeling communities can provide information to advance biodiversity models and improve each community’s approaches to forecasting change. Collaboration can also help tighten the linkages between biodiversity and climate and land-use models as climate change and other anthropogenic stressors continue to threaten biodiversity and its ecosystem services. To address the need for improved large-scale biodiversity models, experts in biodiversity and climate modeling and remote sensing fields came together via a series of in-person workshops and virtual discussions. Our goals were to 1) identify strategies (both qualitative and quantitative) from climate models to be applied to large-scale biodiversity models, 2) to explore NASA and other remote sensing products to assist in global biodiversity modeling efforts and 3) to address and build on gaps and data needs to inform development of GEOBON Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBV) and tracking and development of the next generation of Aichi Biodiversity Targets and Sustainable Development Goals. The first in-person meeting was held in June 2017 with 20 in-person and remote participants in Reston, VA and a second in-person meeting in February 2018 with 18 in-person and remote participants in Tucson, AZ to address these objectives. Participants came from national and international academic institutions, government agencies, and non-governmental organizations and were from various stages in their careers. The workshop series resulted in three main outcomes, including a list of lessons learned and recommendations from those with expertise in climate modeling to address goal 1 above, a framework for assessment and refinement of diverse biodiversity models using remote sensing tools to address goal 1, 2, and 3 above, and lastly the development of a meta-conceptual biodiversity model to inform future model development and needs. Below is a detailed overview highlighting recommendations and outcomes of the workshop series.

As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer models to simulate complex elements of our climate and their interactions with ecosystems, wildlife, and biodiversity. While an extensive array of general circulation models (GCMs, climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean) exist, there is currently a lack of global biodiversity models. This project aims to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts through a series of in-person workshops and virtual discussions to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. The main goals of these workshops and discussions are to 1) identify lessons learned (both qualitative and quantitative) from climate models to then be applied to large-scale terrestrial biodiversity models, 2) to explore NASA and other remote sensing products to assist in global biodiversity and ecosystem models, and 3) to address and build on gaps and data needs (e.g., finer scale ecological and evolutionary processes) previously identified by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) as necessary to inform the IPBES global biodiversity assessment.   

The National Park Service is responsible for managing livestock grazing on 94 locations across the country and several grazing management planning efforts for this work are underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management plans to address potential future effects of climate change on related resources and practices. This is the second phase of a project that is using scenario planning (a strategic planning technique used to inform decision-making in the face of uncertain future conditions) to support grazing management at Dinosaur National Monument. In the first phase of the project (Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks), the research team  convened a participatory climate change scenario planning workshop to qualitatively assess how grazing resources and management at Dinosaur National Monument may be affected under climate change. Now in phase two, this project will develop an ecological modeling approach to provide quantitative information about potential future scenarios to grazing management planning, continuing with Dinosaur National Monument as a case study. It will leverage recent advances in modeling to estimate the combined effects of climate change scenarios and alternative management actions (e.g., stocking rates, prescribed fire, and invasive plant management) on rangeland vegetation. The results of this project will add to the development of a transferable process to help parks ensure that grazing management practices are responsive and adaptive to future climate change.

Amphibians are a group of animals facing especially severe declines due to many factors including climate change and a common pathogen, the amphibian chytrid fungus. To make informed decisions about amphibians, wildlife managers need to identify species facing the greatest threats and the actions that will most effectively minimize impacts of those threats. Although some amphibian species are relatively well-studied, for most, data to inform management decisions are lacking. Therefore, tools to assist managers must be applicable to amphibian species across a range of data availability and susceptibility to climate change and other threats. In this project, researchers will determine which amphibians in the North Central region of the United States are at the greatest risk from the anticipated effects of climate change and other threats, such as disease. They will develop a decision framework for weighing tradeoffs among potential management actions and the anticipated impacts of those actions using both a data-deficient species and a species that is relatively data-rich, the Boreal Toad. This project will then use long-term monitoring information to develop a web application to guide management decisions for Boreal Toads, which are susceptible to amphibian chytrid fungus, likely to be affected by climate change, and are a species of concern for several states in the region. By coordinating with wildlife managers early in the development process, researchers will incorporate feedback from those who will actually use the products of this research and evaluate the effects of potential actions on amphibian populations. Thus, the results of this research will equip managers to make the most informed decisions for amphibian conservation across the North Central region of the United States.