Globally, spring phenology and abiotic processes are shifting earlier with warming. Differences in the magnitudes of these shifts may decouple the timing of plant resource requirements from resource availability. In riparian forests across the northern hemisphere, warming could decouple seed release from snowmelt peak streamflow, thus reducing moisture and safe sites for dominant tree recruitment. We combined field observations with climate, hydrology, and phenology models to simulate future change in synchrony of seed release and snowmelt peaks in the South Platte River Basin, Colorado, for three Salicaceae species that dominate western USA riparian forests. Chilling requirements for overcoming winter endodormancy were strongest in Salix exigua, moderately supported for Populus deltoides, and indiscernible in Salix amygdaloides. Ensemble mean projected warming of 3.5°C shifted snowmelt peaks 10–19 d earlier relative to S. exigua and P. deltoides seed release, because decreased winter chilling combined with increased spring forcing limited change in their phenology. By contrast, warming shifted both snowmelt peaks and S. amygdaloides seed release 21 d earlier, maintaining their synchrony. Decoupling of snowmelt from seed release for Salicaceae with strong chilling requirements is likely to reduce resources critical for recruitment of these foundational riparian forests, although the magnitude of future decoupling remains uncertain.

The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and other components of a formerly contiguous Great Plains landscape. Management of bison in IR5 parks has historically been specific to each park, and livestock and range management science informed much of the decision making. In the past two decades, NPS has shifted away from managing bison from this livestock-based perspective towards a wildlife stewardship approach, including ensuring their long-term adaptive potential and considering them as just one part of a complex ecosystem. This shift requires a more holistic and cooperative approach to stewardship that is challenging not only because of limitations in funding and fluctuations in leadership priorities, but also because of the constraints imposed by the parks’ relatively small, fenced areas. The IR5 NPS Bison Stewardship Strategy (“Strategy”) will help the NPS to meet its responsibilities in cooperative stewardship of bison. The Strategy will serve to organize and consolidate the NPS’s legal and policy responsibilities within a framework of collectively defined values and objectives to support the careful and transparent decision-making processes that both guide and transcend parkspecific planning. This report describes a preliminary decision framework for the Strategy, including the context, the fundamental objectives, and a range of alternative strategies developed and considered through two workshops and a series of conference calls with NPS personnel, stakeholders, and outside experts with an interest in IR5 NPS bison stewardship. Although not the Strategy itself, this framework serves as the Strategy’s starting point and identifies 14 fundamental objectives, falling in four major themes: Persistence of Wild and Healthy Bison 1. Maximize the long-term persistence of bison in IR5 parks 2. Maximize the long-term adaptive capacity of bison in North America 3. Maximize the wildness of the bison herds 4. Maximize humane treatment of bison, while allowing natural processes to occur

From Summary: "The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is an expansive region that covers parts of five Midwestern states and three Canadian provinces. The region contains millions of wetlands that produce between 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl population each year. Previous modeling efforts indicated that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central PPR to the southeast portion of the region where over half of wetlands have been drained. The implications of adopting these projections would require a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR to sustain migratory waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these projections using a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology in combination with the most up-to-date climate model projections to estimate how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat. We also presented our findings in changes to wet May ponds, which is a metric that is used by managers at the US Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations to establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in wet May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of wet May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR that focus on areas with the high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs and will likely be the most successful in maintaining habitats critical to continental waterfowl populations."

Climate change is causing an increase in the amount of forested area burned by wildfires in the western U.S. The warm, dry post-fire conditions of the region may limit tree regeneration in some areas, potentially causing a shift to non-forest vegetation. Managers are increasingly challenged by the combined impacts of greater wildfire activity, the significant uncertainty about whether forests will recover, and limited resources for reforestation efforts. Simultaneously, there has been an increased focus on post-fire reforestation efforts as tree planting has become a popular climate change mitigation strategy across the nation. Therefore, with increased interest and need, it is crucial to identify where varying approaches to support post-fire tree regeneration are most likely to be successful.   This project seeks to help managers target and prioritize various post-fire management approaches and identify the areas where these actions will promote recovery and adaptation or will be less successful due to changing climate conditions. Researchers will quantify how post-fire climate conditions affect both natural and assisted tree regeneration. Then, this information will be used to make a freely available web tool that will predict the probability of post-fire regeneration in recently affected areas for three dominant conifer species: ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and western larch. This tool will be applied in collaboration with managers from the Bureau of Land Management and The Nature Conservancy to help prioritize planting efforts on a recent wildfire in Montana. This planting effort will provide an opportunity to test if planting seedlings from warmer and drier areas may allow for adaptation to the warming climate conditions. Combined, the work will help managers to effectively use limited resources by prioritizing where and how to plant seedlings and promote forest regeneration after wildfires. 

Trout are one of the most culturally, economically, and ecologically important groups of freshwater fishes in the Rocky Mountain region. However, human impacts and climate change are significantly altering freshwater ecosystems that support native trout species. Despite their broad importance, many of the region’s trout populations are threatened and some require immediate conservation efforts to reverse their decline. Although work is being done to understand and mitigate these changes, the ability to accurately assess vulnerability is currently limited due to a lack of data-driven approaches that incorporate uncertainty and adaptive capacity at scales relevant to effective management.   USGS researchers will use fisheries data collected by natural resource managers to assess the status and vulnerability of native trout populations to climate change and human activities across the Greater Yellowstone and Crown of the Continent Ecosystems of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA and Canada. The project has three primary objectives: 1) quantify the impacts of climate change, habitat loss, and invasive species on native trout populations across this region, 2) develop a robust framework that incorporates multiple data sources and empirical relationships to estimate climate vulnerability and convey uncertainty in the projections, and 3) develop an innovative data visualization and decision support tool in conjunction with local and regional stakeholders and management.  Results from this project will be used by natural resource managers and stakeholders to inform pro-active on-the-ground conservation and restoration actions for improving native trout resilience and adaptation across these important ecosystems. 

Native American tribes are interested in managing their homelands for future generations, using both Indigenous and western science to make decisions in culturally appropriate ways. In particular, there is interest in strategic grazing management as a natural climate solution to strengthen the resilience of grasslands to a changing climate. This includes the restoration of free-ranging bison as well as the management of cattle (and domestic bison) in ways that approximate wild bison grazing behavior, to capture similar ecological and climate change benefits.   Despite the growing interest in grazing management as a tool for grassland resilience and soil health, there has not been a systematic synthesis that directly relate to bison and cattle management decisions being made by Tribes and First Nations. Furthermore, the existing evidence is framed from a western scientific perspective and does not account for the rich knowledge of Indigenous science and cultural practice. Given the growing movement for Indigenous-held lands to be managed in culturally-appropriate ways, it is crucial that efforts to develop management recommendations take both Indigenous and western science into account.   To address these needs, the Wildlife Conservation Society and the Blackfeet Nation are partnering to launch an Indigenous Scholars Hub that will bring together Blackfeet Nation decision makers and Indigenous graduate students to: 1) co-create a synthesis and future research plan on bison and cattle grazing as a tool for climate adaptation and 2) link Indigenous and western science on grazing to inform on-going land use planning, bison restoration, and cattle grazing management decisions. Results of this review will be shared with other Native American tribes also interested in the topic.  The Indigenous Scholars Hub will be a pilot for weaving together Indigenous and western science, provide key information for decision-makers, and create a mentoring networking to support early career Indigenous researchers who wish to contribute to durable conservation of their homelands. 

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are important ecosystems in the western U.S. that provide numerous critical environmental, economic, and cultural benefits. For example, pinyon pines are a significant cultural resource for multiple Native American Tribes and provide necessary habitat for plants and wildlife (including at risk species, such as the pinyon-jay). Despite their importance, stress put on pinyon-juniper woodlands by wildfires and other interacting effects of climate change are causing major population declines of these woodland trees. Such changes to pinyon-juniper woodlands lead to uncertainty for land managers on best practices for protecting these ecosystems from stand replacing fire (where most or all of the trees are killed), and restoring pinyon-juniper communities when fire does occur. To address these uncertainties, researchers are collaborating with a diverse set of land managers, scientists and tribal partners to answer two questions: (1) How does a holistic understanding of the ways tree thinning and fire affect pinyon-juniper woodlands lead to improved management options? and (2) What innovative restoration techniques can restore pinyon-juniper communities following fire in the face of climate change? The research team will use long-term observational data and sites managed by federal and tribal partners to explore ecosystem health and regeneration patterns over pinyon-juniper woodlands that have experienced thinning or fire. This will include assessments of rare and threatened plant species. The researchers will also test a suite of novel restoration options following past fires to provide tools for pinyon-juniper restoration success in places where natural post-fire regrowth is not occurring. Taken together, this inclusive research project will address some of the most pressing resource management information needs in order to develop strategies to sustain pinyon-juniper woodlands and the many services they provide.