These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1950-1999 period, in the annual and seasonal soil moisture (%), runoff (%), precipitation (%) and evapotranspiration (%) in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.

Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing vegetation (version 1.3.0). The change categories are (raster values in parentheses): (1) Lost = will not remain in place (2) Threatened = unlikely to remain in place, especially after a disturbance (3) Persistent = conditions remain within historical range (4) Emergent = new areas where climate will become suitable

Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing vegetation (version 1.3.0). The change categories are (raster values in parentheses): (1) Lost = will not remain in place (2) Threatened = unlikely to remain in place, especially after a disturbance (3) Persistent = conditions remain within historical range (4) Emergent = new areas where climate will become suitable

Projected suitable habitat models were constructed using a set of presence points for the species derived from element occurrence and herbarium records, together with temperature, precipitation, and soil variables. The current distribution used modeled historic period (1970-2000) climate variables from the appropriate matching GCM model run. These model parameters were then used with projected climate data to get future (2020-2050) modeled suitable habitat for each scenario. Modeled past suitable habitat and modeled future suitable habitat are combined to show areas of change, using various thresholds to distinguish change categories, as well as comparison to current mapped habitats from SWReGAP landcover (USGS 2004) or LANDFIRE existing vegetation (version 1.3.0). The change categories are (raster values in parentheses): (1) Lost = will not remain in place (2) Threatened = unlikely to remain in place, especially after a disturbance (3) Persistent = conditions remain within historical range (4) Emergent = new areas where climate will become suitable

Drought is a complex environmental hazard that impacts both ecological and social systems. Accounting for the role of human attitudes, institutions, and societal values in drought planning is important to help identify how various drought durations and severity may differentially affect social resilience to adequately respond to and manage drought impacts. While there have been successful past efforts to understand how individuals, communities, institutions, and agencies plan for and respond to drought, these studies have relied on extensive multi-year case studies in specific locations. In contrast, this project seeks to determine how social science insights and methods can best contribute to ecological drought preparedness and resilience in situations where extensive field study is not feasible.  Specifically, the project team will investigate what a rapid social assessment method might look like in the context of ecological drought, how it may be applied, and what benefits it may contribute to drought preparedness and resilience. This method would allow researchers to expeditiously identify and analyze relevant characteristics of the social system that have bearing on the problem of ecological drought and allow water and resource managers, community leaders, and others involved with drought preparedness and response to quickly identify, assess, and measure important social factors that influence the effects of drought to ecosystems. This project will include analyzing currently available rapid assessment methods from other topical areas (including ecological, rural, hazards, etc.) to inform the method to be developed by providing relevant design criteria. A prototype version of the method will be developed and pilot tested with the identified audience to determine effectiveness and strengths and weaknesses.  Finally, the method will be refined and made available more widely to Department of Interior resource managers.

Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged severe droughts, tree mortality from insect outbreaks, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more frequent summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future (Lukas et al. 2014). These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water and range for livestock grazing under unpredictable drought conditions, managing forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. Considering the wide-ranging potential impacts of climate change in the region, the goal of this project was to collaborate with decision-makers to develop strategies to reduce those impacts on people and nature. Scientists, land managers, and local communities worked together to identify actions to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Known as “adaptation strategies,” these actions are expected to facilitate effective planning and management under shifting climate conditions. To inform strategy development, researchers and planners provided information on the vulnerability of ecosystems, modeled plausible future climate conditions, and identified the social contexts in which adaptation decisions are made. The project focused on the San Juan River Basin and Upper Gunnison River Basin of southwestern Colorado, though one of the objectives of the project was to develop an adaptation toolkit that can be applied to other landscapes. By identifying appropriate adaptation strategies and actions, this project will help improve the resilience of local communities and ecosystems elsewhere in the face of an uncertain future.