Climate change is a primary threat to biodiversity, but for many species, we still lack information required to assess their relative vulnerability to changes. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a widely used technique to rank relative vulnerability to climate change based on species characteristics, such as their distributions, habitat associations, environmental tolerances, and life-history traits. However, for species that we expect are vulnerable to climate change yet are understudied, like many amphibians, we often lack information required to construct CCVAs using existing methods. We used the CCVA framework to construct trait-based models based on life history theory, using empirical evidence of traits and distributions that reflected sensitivity of amphibians to environmental perturbation. We performed CCVAs for amphibians in 7 states in the north-central USA, focusing on 31 aquatic-breeding species listed as species of greatest conservation need by at least 1 state. Because detailed information on habitat requirements is unavailable for most amphibian species, we used species distributions and information on traits expected to influence vulnerability to a drying climate (e.g., clutch size and habitat breadth). We scored species vulnerability based on changes projected for mid-century (2040−2069) from 2 climate models representing “least-dry” and “most-dry” scenarios for the region. Species characteristics useful for discriminating vulnerability in our models included small range size, small clutch size, inflexible diel activity patterns, and smaller habitat breadth. When projected climate scenarios included a mix of drier and wetter conditions in the future, the exposure of a species to drying conditions was most important to relative rankings. When the scenario was universally drier, species characteristics were more important to relative rankings. Using information typically available even for understudied species and a range of climate projections, our results highlight the potential of using life history traits as indicators of relative climate vulnerability. The commonalities we identified provide a framework that can be used to assess other understudied species threatened by climate change.  

These data consist of three primary types of products for managers of boreal toads in the Southern Rocky Mountains: 1) Re-constructed hydroperiods for historical breeding sites from LANDSAT imagery from 1985-2022 (SMA_hydroperiod_reconstruction.csv). This dataset was developed using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). 2) Current (1985-2022) and future (2040-2069) predictions of probability of drying and surface area estimates for historical breeding sites (Current_hydrology_predictions.csv, Future_hydrology_predictions.csv). These datasets were developed using a Bayesian hurdle model with the surface water area estimate from the SMA as the response variable. 3) Current (1985-2020) and future (1955-1969) predictions of occupancy for boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) at three spatial scales; breeding site (Current_future_occ_prob_ind_site.csv), mountain range (Current_future_occ_prob_mtn_range.csv) and Southern Rocky Mountain Region (Current_future_occ_prob_SRM.csv). These datasets were developed from a Bayesian dynamic state-space community model.

Tribal resource managers in the southwest U.S. are facing a host of challenges related to environmental change, including increasing temperatures, longer periods of drought, and invasive species. These threats are exacerbating the existing challenges of managing complex ecosystems. In a rapidly changing environment, resource managers need powerful tools and the most complete information to make the most effective decisions possible. Located in southwest Colorado, the Ute Mountain Ute Tribal managers are experiencing these impacts firsthand which is why in 2019 they developed a climate adaptation plan. This project builds off the climate adaptation plan to connect managers at Ute Mountain Ute’s Environmental Department with data, tools, and information for making decisions about natural and cultural resources in the context of climate change. This project focused on 3 main objectives: 1) a workshop to plan for potential scenarios of climate change and the impact climate may have on their natural and cultural resource; 2) an invasive species mapping project to understand how invasive species are impacting a culturally and ecologically important area on the reservation; and 3) connecting art, students, and elders to the broader effort by the UMU Environmental Department to incorporate climate change into their decision making. The project team was successful in completing all three objectives, which empower managers at UMU to implement their climate adaptation plan and become more familiar with the suite of resources available to continue to navigate the impacts of climate change across their lands. The art component of the project is notable as it provides an exemplary process for producing culturally relevant products for a tribal community in a transparent and inclusive process.

Reducing uncertainty for decision-makers managing species in a rapidly changing climate requires knowledge of how species will respond to climate change and other threats while simultaneously developing management actions to reduce threats. Amphibians are one of the most threatened taxa on earth, and often serve as the “canary in the coalmine” for the health of ecosystems that countless other species and humans rely on. To address this for an imperiled amphibian species in the North Central region, the Boreal toad, we co-produced several products with the Boreal Toad Conservation Team to understand the status of the species and guide management. These products included 1) reconstructed seasonal hydrology patterns for historical Boreal toad breeding wetlands and high elevation watersheds in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region (SRMR) from remotely sensed data, 2) current and future predictions of drying rates for historical breeding wetlands, 3) current and future predictions on the status of the Boreal toad in the SRMR, and 3) a web tool to guide management actions. While the Boreal toad is considered a “data rich” species given data collection efforts that span multiple decades, many amphibian species are considered “data poor”, meaning managers lack data on the biology, ecology, or status of the species needed to make sound decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we also quantified drying patterns across watersheds for two “data poor” species in the North Central region at risk from climate change: the Great Basin spadefoot toad and the Wood frog. These new data can guide management decisions for these species by allowing managers to understand habitat changes with respect to water availability, a crucial element for amphibian survival and persistence. Together, these products demonstrate how cutting-edge technology and analytical methods can produce a range of useful information to support amphibian conservation.

This cooperator report contains 3 case studies produced by the North Central CASC to inform the State Wildlife Action Plan revision in North Dakota. The case studies included are: Case Study 1: Climate and land use changes are turning wetlands into large lakes, with consequences for ducks and North Dakota infrastructure Case Study 2: Managing Invasive Grasses in Native Temperate Prairies Case study 3: How will climate and land use change affect butterflies in the state of North Dakota?

As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing habitats, species, and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs isn’t required and capacity to do so is limited at most state agencies, resulting in varied consideration of climate change impacts. In support of the revisions to multiple State Wildlife Action Plans in the North Centra region, the North Central CASC is providing resources, synthesis, and case-studies to incorporate how climate change is relevant to wildlife and habitat conservation. The North Central CASC aims to provide concise information of available science describing how climate change is impacting state-specific species and habitats of concern, and the types of management actions that may support positive outcomes for wildlife and habitats.   For some states, case studies provide relatable and relevant examples of how management practices and priorities might consider both direct and indirect climate change impacts. Specifically, the project team is collaborating with state agencies in North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming to produce SWAP relevant products that will inform species and habitat management priorities and plans outlined within the State Wildlife Action Plan revisions. 

This is repository contains all publicly-released code and data supporting the Southern Rocky Mountains boreal toad decision support tool, which was developed as a part of a North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center-funded project entitled “A framework for guiding management decisions for amphibians in an uncertain future”, by Dr. Amanda M. Kissel (USGS), Dr. Erin Muths (USGS), Mae Lacey (Conservation Science Partners), Dr. Viorel Popescu (Columbia University), Dr. Marissa Dyck (University of Victoria), and Dr. Caitlin Littlefield (Conservation Science Partners). It contains scripts necessary for running the R shiny decision support tool/web app (SRM-boreal-toad-occupancy-tool-USGS). The complete version of this code and web app uses sensitive data that are not readily available to the public, and thus different versions of this application may present the included datasets at differing levels of detail depending on whether the publicly or privately available version is being viewed. Given that this version is public-facing, all sensitive datasets have been removed. Please contact the authors to request access to the private repository and web app.  

The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework was developed by and for conservationists, resource managers, and climate change adaptation practitioners and scientists to foster strategic and collaborative thinking about responses to anthropogenic ecological change (Lynch et al., 2021; Schuurman et al., 2020, 2022; Thompson et al., 2021). Prevailing management approaches, which emphasize managing for ecosystem stationarity and maintaining historical ecological conditions or dynamics (e.g., Landres et al., 1999), are increasingly inadequate in this time of rapid, directional change (Jackson, 2021; Schuurman et al., 2022). Resisting anthropogenic environmental change has been the traditional approach in the resource management community. However, thinking beyond persistence alone is critical, given that preservation of all ecological components and processes in any given place will not be possible as the environment in which they developed transforms. This change in thinking constitutes a paradigm shift that calls for new tools and approaches, and the RAD framework is gaining traction in conservation and resource management agencies (e.g., the United States Department of the Interior [USDOI, 2021], the National Park Service [NPS, 2021, 2024], Australia's Parks Victoria Board [PVB, 2022], and South African National Parks [van Wilgen-Bredenkamp et al., 2024]). The RAD framework helps managers navigate transformative ecological change by defining a broad decision space that encompasses managing for persistence to managing for change and includes resisting (R) ecological trajectories moving away from historical or natural conditions; consciously accepting (A) such change; and directing (D) ecological trajectories toward preferred new conditions. By fostering deliberative thinking about options that include accepting and directing change, RAD is intended to help managers expand their thinking beyond traditional resistance approaches. By providing a structured way to consider a wide, even novel, set of options, RAD supports a necessary shift in perspective, helping managers respond to often-rapid ecological transformations. The RAD framework is also designed to promote collaboration and communication among diverse partners, stakeholders, and rights holders in planning and decision-making processes. The framework's simple, 3-part framing focuses on manager action and establishes a common, policy-neutral vocabulary that can foster joint or complementary actions across landscapes and jurisdictions and coherency in climate-informed goals (Magness et al., 2022; Schuurman et al., 2022; Ward et al., 2023). In sum, RAD is intended to be a simple framework that promotes exploration of a wider decision space while providing straightforward, intuitive concepts and vocabulary that foster interdisciplinary collaboration and communication in adaptation planning processes.

Project Overview Collaboration among scientists, managers, and members of the public is critical for developing effective science products that respond to society’s most pressing challenges. To continue these collaborative efforts, USGS recognizes that participatory sciences can be a powerful tool in engaging diverse groups in the process of collecting and interpreting scientific information, knowledge, and products. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will develop a guidebook for USGS scientists, supervisors, and leadership by utilizing collaboration across the USGS, as well as with federal, state, and local partners. This guidebook will provide opportunities for greater alignment of participatory science priorities, as well as create a framework to guide science planning and scientists’ efforts in a way that is responsive to the needs and priorities of future participatory sciences.   Project Summary Across USGS, scientists, managers, and members of the public are joining forces to develop critical 21st -century science products to respond to society’s greatest challenges. In doing so, USGS is increasingly recognizing the need to engage with the decision makers, individuals, and communities its science aims to serve through the use of participatory sciences. Broadly, participatory sciences actively engage the public in the process of collecting, generating, analyzing, and interpreting scientific information, knowledge, and products. Some efforts may be driven by the scientists at the USGS, while others may be driven by partners or communities. However, the increase in engagement of the public by USGS scientists is challenged by the lack of common language, and successful participatory science efforts remain disconnected across project teams, mission areas, and regions. To provide an opportunity for greater alignment, this project will develop a guidebook for USGS scientists, supervisors, and leadership by collaborating with staff from across USGS, as well as federal, state, and local partners. This will allow a greater understanding of the diverse types of participatory science that USGS scientists, programs, and regions are undertaking to work with and for the public, as well as the value they provide. Additionally, the collaboration will lead to the development of best practices for working with the public across USGS, grounded in past experiences, relevant literature, and input of subject matter experts. Finally, this project will create a framework for future projects to guide science planning and individual scientists’ efforts that is responsive to the needs and priorities of the specific participatory context.  

Wildlife diseases can have substantial impacts on wildlife populations as well as on human and domestic animal health and well-being. Although many agencies and stakeholders share a goal of supporting wildlife health, reducing wildlife disease burden is complicated by a scarcity of effective interventions for wildlife, competition for funds, and conflicting priorities. As a result, agencies are unlikely to avoid the impacts of wildlife diseases in all contexts and need to evaluate where resisting disease is most feasible and beneficial. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework is a tool that assists natural resource managers in exploring and communicating about management interventions, including in situations where resisting ecological changes may not be possible. In the present article, we discuss how the RAD framework could be adapted to wildlife disease contexts to address several outstanding challenges in wildlife health management.