Climate change is causing a range of changes that can affect the natural, cultural, and built resources of the Nation’s protected areas and affect opportunities to visit and recreate in these spaces. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns also affect species and habitats, leading to ecological transformation. This report describes findings from pilot research conducted in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah (hereinafter referred to as “Capitol Reef” or “the Park”) as part of a larger interagency study of how National Park Service (NPS) staff are considering management of transforming ecosystems. Semi-structured interviews were used to assess how Capitol Reef employees (n=9) understand the challenge of ecological transformation, including their perceptions of how climate change is affecting the Park’s natural and cultural resources, the multiple timeframes over which employees respond to climate change impacts, and their awareness and understanding of ecological transformation and the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework, which was developed to address ecological transformation, that is, ecosystems changing in response to changes in climate conditions (Schuurman and others, 2020, 2022). The interviews also solicited employee perceptions about constraints and enabling factors that allow Capitol Reef to effectively respond to ecological transformation. The report uses a conceptual framework that has been used by the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program (Clifford and others, 2022) to structure the reporting of the data about constraints and enabling factors, with sections describing the role of factors internal to an individual employee (culture, worldviews, and understanding of an ecological system) and contextual factors external to an individual (institutional context, social feasibility and scientific uncertainty as influenced by available scientific information). Participating Capitol Reef staff perceived the most pressing climate impacts in the Park as increasing air temperatures, aridity, and flash floods, which are impacting natural and cultural resources, public safety, and infrastructure. Staff mostly agreed on what the future landscape (approximately 50 years into the future) may look like at Capitol Reef in terms of changes in vegetation and future temperature and precipitation conditions. However, staff had more divergent views or were uncertain about how specific species will adapt to future conditions (for example, how endemic plants might shift their ranges) and are grappling with which management strategies to take at which times. Staff also had differing opinions about how much data is needed to prompt action. Interviewees agreed that leadership in the Park had made climate change a priority and created a climate-attuned culture among staff. Participating employees described the park culture at Capitol Reef as collaborative, with frequent communication and work across divisions, which, as an example, shapes responses to flash floods and other events (for example, working across divisions on search and rescue, or repairing fencing that is washed out by storms). This collaborative, climate-attuned culture may help Capitol Reef in future problem-solving as it grapples with how to respond to climate change and ecological transformation in the Park.

The menu is structured around six broad strategies, each encompassing a range of detailed approaches tailored to current and anticipated challenges in PJ woodlands across the Colorado Plateau and elsewhere (Fig. 1). Rather than offering specific tactical recommendations, it is designed to encourage open exploration of the diverse management options available. Ultimately, it is up to resource managers and community partners to determine the most suitable strategies to achieve their goals and objectives.

This project created a set of easy-to-use online tools that help natural resource managers plan for a future shaped by climate change. Managers, such as those working for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service, need to understand how temperature, rainfall, and drought might change in the coming decades to protect wildlife and their habitats. Our project developed the "Future Climate Scenarios Tool," which allows users to select any location or wildlife refuge in the contiguous United States and instantly get a detailed report on future climate conditions. The tool provides information on numerous climate factors, from seasonal temperatures to water availability and drought risk, under different future scenarios. This helps managers answer critical questions: Will droughts become more severe? How might snowpack change? This information is vital for writing species recovery plans, managing water resources, and preparing for future challenges. The tools are hosted on the public-friendly ClimateToolbox.org website, ensuring they are freely accessible and will be maintained for the long term. Through workshops and webinars, we have trained hundreds of resource professionals nationwide on how to use these tools to make more informed and forward-looking decisions.

This project helped wildlife managers understand how future snow conditions are expected to change in the Rocky Mountains. Snow is a critical habitat for animals like the wolverine, which needs deep, lasting snowpack to build dens and raise its young. Many previous modeling efforts were not detailed enough for mountain regions, where conditions can change dramatically over short distances. This research created highly detailed (1-kilometer) maps of future snowpack, showing where snow will likely persist and where it might disappear under different scenarios. This new, high-resolution information was provided directly to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and was used in their 2023 Species Status Assessment for the North American wolverine, helping them make informed decisions about the species' future. The project also shared its findings widely, from local high school students to international scientific conferences, ensuring the knowledge benefits the public.

These data cover Devils Lake Basin of Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota. We aimed to understand the mechanism of the Devils Lake responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model. The data include areal measurements (km2) of each of the Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) that were modeled.

Conservation planning protects habitats, supports biodiversity, and sustains ecosystem functions that support human and ecological well-being. Natural resource managers are expected to make sound management decisions and balance competing interests in a social-ecological context. However, they face challenges related to effective collaboration, public participation in decision-making, and the application of climate information. This study describes conservation planning challenges in South Dakota, a predominantly rural state where over 80% of land is privately owned, and natural resources are highly valued. We used an inductive, qualitative research approach, including in-depth interviews with 35 experts and content analysis of 56 conservation plans. Our study identifies the absence of complementary goals among federal, state, and non-profit organizations. Managers have concerns that current methods of public engagement are inadequate and often result in low engagement during the public participation process. Limited understanding and application of climate data were prevalent among managers. Our findings indicate that managers face multiple, complex demands in conservation planning. Conservation outcomes can be more sustainable when collaborative efforts are complementary, public perspectives are incorporated, and clear guidance exists for using climate tools. This study positions relationships as an important social foundation for conservation success. The insights from this study inform policy and practice by offering considerations for improving collaboration, public participation, and the use of scientific data.

Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems is crucial for successful grasslands management in the future. In 2020, the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers (that is, those individuals who develop grassland management plans, implement those plans on the ground, or both) at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; and partnerships to help meet regional grassland management goals. This chapter presents the main findings from the review and synthesis of 183 grassland management-related documents relevant to the North Central region. Specifically, this chapter describes the methods by which grassland management-related documents were identified, reviewed, and synthesized; defines five North Central Grassland Ecoregions; provides a synthesis of regional grassland management goals and challenges; identifies information needs relevant to grassland management in a changing climate; and summarizes grassland management issues by ecoregion. 

Process-based restoration (PBR) of streams—a suite of techniques developed in mountainous regions—is now being applied to prairie streams with different geomorphological, hydrological, and ecological conditions. In October 2024, we held a meeting of stream restoration practitioners to share outcomes from initial prairie PBR projects—primarily large-wood additions and beaver mimicry and restoration. Practitioners agreed that geomorphological processes sustaining prairie streams are not well understood, and this leads to disagreement about the efficacy of specific restoration techniques. While beaver dams were present on pre-colonization prairie streams, the ability of beaver mimicry projects to recruit beaver and sustain natural processes is poorly characterized. Biological responses to prairie PBR appear positive, but the response of many taxa and the social acceptability of projects has not been studied. We highlight a substantial area of data deficiency and identify the need for more research on prairie PBR projects.