This project created a set of easy-to-use online tools that help natural resource managers plan for a future shaped by climate change. Managers, such as those working for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service, need to understand how temperature, rainfall, and drought might change in the coming decades to protect wildlife and their habitats. Our project developed the "Future Climate Scenarios Tool," which allows users to select any location or wildlife refuge in the contiguous United States and instantly get a detailed report on future climate conditions. The tool provides information on numerous climate factors, from seasonal temperatures to water availability and drought risk, under different future scenarios. This helps managers answer critical questions: Will droughts become more severe? How might snowpack change? This information is vital for writing species recovery plans, managing water resources, and preparing for future challenges. The tools are hosted on the public-friendly ClimateToolbox.org website, ensuring they are freely accessible and will be maintained for the long term. Through workshops and webinars, we have trained hundreds of resource professionals nationwide on how to use these tools to make more informed and forward-looking decisions.

This project helped wildlife managers understand how future snow conditions are expected to change in the Rocky Mountains. Snow is a critical habitat for animals like the wolverine, which needs deep, lasting snowpack to build dens and raise its young. Many previous modeling efforts were not detailed enough for mountain regions, where conditions can change dramatically over short distances. This research created highly detailed (1-kilometer) maps of future snowpack, showing where snow will likely persist and where it might disappear under different scenarios. This new, high-resolution information was provided directly to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and was used in their 2023 Species Status Assessment for the North American wolverine, helping them make informed decisions about the species' future. The project also shared its findings widely, from local high school students to international scientific conferences, ensuring the knowledge benefits the public.

These data cover Devils Lake Basin of Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota. We aimed to understand the mechanism of the Devils Lake responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model. The data include areal measurements (km2) of each of the Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) that were modeled.

Conservation planning protects habitats, supports biodiversity, and sustains ecosystem functions that support human and ecological well-being. Natural resource managers are expected to make sound management decisions and balance competing interests in a social-ecological context. However, they face challenges related to effective collaboration, public participation in decision-making, and the application of climate information. This study describes conservation planning challenges in South Dakota, a predominantly rural state where over 80% of land is privately owned, and natural resources are highly valued. We used an inductive, qualitative research approach, including in-depth interviews with 35 experts and content analysis of 56 conservation plans. Our study identifies the absence of complementary goals among federal, state, and non-profit organizations. Managers have concerns that current methods of public engagement are inadequate and often result in low engagement during the public participation process. Limited understanding and application of climate data were prevalent among managers. Our findings indicate that managers face multiple, complex demands in conservation planning. Conservation outcomes can be more sustainable when collaborative efforts are complementary, public perspectives are incorporated, and clear guidance exists for using climate tools. This study positions relationships as an important social foundation for conservation success. The insights from this study inform policy and practice by offering considerations for improving collaboration, public participation, and the use of scientific data.

Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems is crucial for successful grasslands management in the future. In 2020, the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers (that is, those individuals who develop grassland management plans, implement those plans on the ground, or both) at Federal, State, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; and partnerships to help meet regional grassland management goals. This chapter presents the main findings from the review and synthesis of 183 grassland management-related documents relevant to the North Central region. Specifically, this chapter describes the methods by which grassland management-related documents were identified, reviewed, and synthesized; defines five North Central Grassland Ecoregions; provides a synthesis of regional grassland management goals and challenges; identifies information needs relevant to grassland management in a changing climate; and summarizes grassland management issues by ecoregion. 

Process-based restoration (PBR) of streams—a suite of techniques developed in mountainous regions—is now being applied to prairie streams with different geomorphological, hydrological, and ecological conditions. In October 2024, we held a meeting of stream restoration practitioners to share outcomes from initial prairie PBR projects—primarily large-wood additions and beaver mimicry and restoration. Practitioners agreed that geomorphological processes sustaining prairie streams are not well understood, and this leads to disagreement about the efficacy of specific restoration techniques. While beaver dams were present on pre-colonization prairie streams, the ability of beaver mimicry projects to recruit beaver and sustain natural processes is poorly characterized. Biological responses to prairie PBR appear positive, but the response of many taxa and the social acceptability of projects has not been studied. We highlight a substantial area of data deficiency and identify the need for more research on prairie PBR projects.

Climate change poses a unique set of escalating challenges for Canyons of the Ancients National Monument (CANM). A 2021 manager’s report specified that the rapidly changing climate makes fulfilling CANM’s purpose of protecting natural and cultural features exceedingly difficult due to the uncertainty global warming introduces across CANM’s diverse biomes. “While the landscape itself, defined by rugged terrain and harsh conditions, resulted in vegetation communities that are well adapted to extremes, the uncertainty of future climate conditions makes predicting the stability, or instability of those communities nearly impossible,” (O’Neil et al 2021: 9). Recent years, characterized by rising temperatures, drought, and unpredictable precipitation, make “planning for revegetation, hazardous fuels reductions, and riparian restoration projects more difficult and diminishes the opportunities for success” (O’Neil et al 2021: 9.) Moreover, these climate impacts also imperil the tens of thousands of cultural features and ancestral sites that the monument was created to protect.  To begin addressing these challenges, this assessment considers how climate change could impact important habitats of the Monument and how those impacts pose specific threats to ancestral sites. Findings from this work could help inform the future development of a Science Plan for CANM. Overseen by the Bureau of Land Management, CANM maintains ongoing partnerships with 26 tribal communities who trace enduring connections to the landscape and ancestral features (Figure 1). Partnering with descendant communities is crucial for the development of plans to adapt CANM to risks posed by a rapidly changing climate.

Climate change is contributing to unprecedented rates of ecological transformation worldwide. Shifts in species distributions and altered structural complexity of habitat has implications for ecosystem function and human relationships. The 1964 Wilderness Act was passed to preserve undeveloped large landscapes in their “natural” condition and for the continued recreational, cultural, and spiritual benefit of the people. Nevertheless, wilderness is still vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Using active management to respond to climate change challenges in wilderness is complicated by the very protections afforded to wilderness that limit human impacts. This conundrum manifests as a wicked problem for land stewards who are grappling with how to prepare for or respond to climate change-driven ecological transformation. In the Black Ridge Canyons Wilderness (BRCW) of southwest Colorado, USA, climate change is impacting habitat conditions for native amphibians and exacerbating adverse interactions between native and invasive amphibian species. This report summarizes research and activities relevant to the RAD Decisions in Rad Landscapes: Black Ridge Canyons Wilderness case study. The overarching goal of this case study was to provide Bureau of Land Management (BLM) staff and their partners with knowledge and tools to support intentional and transparent decisionmaking for ephemeral riparian communities in the BRCW through climate change-driven ecological transformation. Scientists from the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute (ALWRI) conducted research to illuminate the potential ecological consequences of climate change for ephemeral riparian communities as well as managers’ perceived ability to respond to ecological change. Additionally, scientists at AWLRI facilitated a 2-day workshop which engaged BLM staff and their partners in an adaptive management process to clarify values and desired conditions, generate decision alternatives under the RAD framework, and evaluate the potential social, legal, and ecological implications of various decision alternatives for native amphibian communities within the BRCW.

Urban forests and other green infrastructures have been viewed as part of the “Nature‐basedSolutions” (NbS) to mitigate emerging urban environmental change. This study focuses on the role ofevapotranspiration (ET) in regulating water balances of small watersheds in the eastern United States. Wecompared streamflow and ET patterns at daily, monthly and annual scales and linked these hydrologicalvariables to the physical properties of 11 paired watersheds dominated by forests (FW) or urban (UW) landcovers. The annual precipitation ranged from 1028 mm to 1683 mm and potential ET (PET) from 815 mm to1450 mm. The mean annual flow/precipitation (Q/P) ratios were 0.26 ± 0.13 and 0.41 ± 0.1 for FW and UW,respectively. Overall, UW had lower annual ET (772 mm in UW vs. 947 mm in FW), but higher mean annualand (∼58% higher), monthly water yield (17%–186% higher), and peakflow rates (up to 100 times higher) thanFW. The streamflow differences between FW and UW were most pronounced during the growing season andearly winter (June‐November). The mean Q/P ratios for 30 large hurricane events (2016–2021) were 0.12 ± 0.11and 0.38 ± 0.23 for FW and UW, respectively. The flow rates in the dormant season (around December‐May) inUW were similar or lower than FW. We developed conceptual models to explain the seasonal and storm eventstreamflow differences using background climate (PET), ET, and land surface characteristics. Urban NbSdesigns should factor in strategies that maximize ET while minimizing impervious surfaces enhancingwatershed “sponge” and “pump” functions.