We mapped potential climate change refugia for riparian areas in the central and western USA for 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Riparian refugia are existing riparian areas that are projected to maintain riparian vegetation and associated ecological function under plausible future climates. Four input variables were included in the riparian refugia index: two landscape variables that represent where existing riparian areas may be more resilient to climatic changes (riparian connectedness and landscape diversity) and two climate variables that reflect projected exposure to climate change (runoff and warm days). For the climate variables, we considered two global circulation models: moderately hot and wet (CNRM-CM5) and hot and dry (IPSL-CM5A-MR) under RCP 8.5. The climate variables represented the projected change from a historical baseline (1971-2000) for two future 30-year time periods, mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099). The four input variables of uniform pixel size were assigned equal weights and layered together using ArcGIS Pro’s Suitability Modeler to create an index for riparian refugial quality. Here we provide raster layers for the riparian refugia index and three of the four input variables including riparian connectedness, runoff, and warm days. The fourth input variable, landscape diversity, was produced by The Nature Conservancy and is available online at The Nature Conservancy’s Resilient and Connected Network. The four climate scenarios (CNRM-CM5 2040-2069, CNRM-CM5 2070-2099, IPSL-CM5A-MR 2040-2069, and IPSL-CM5A-MR 2070-209) are included as individual rasters for the riparian refugia index, runoff, and warm days, and are zipped into each base folder. We also provide a geodatabase that contains all the data (riparian refugia index, riparian connectedness, runoff, and warm days).
Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be heavily altered by future changes in precipitation and soil moisture that are driven by climate change. Although this vulnerability is well recognized, developing accurate information about the potential consequences of climate change for ecological drought is difficult because the soil moisture conditions that plants experience are shaped by complex interactions among weather, atmospheric CO2, plants and soils. There are currently very few ecologically appropriate datasets about future drought with widespread distribution at resolutions suitable for informing natural resource decision making. This project will meet some of those needs by simulating complex interactions that affect soil moisture availability to plants and generating user-relevant soil moisture projections. Results will include detailed and synthesized drought information for the 21st century across the entire contiguous U.S. that are delivered via the Climate Toolbox, an established source for long-term climate projections. Data provided by this project will be useful for a wide variety of applications including scenario planning, species distribution models, and ecological drought and habitat vulnerability assessments.
Accurate models are important to predict how global climate change will continue to alter plant phenology and near-term ecological forecasts can be used to iteratively improve models and evaluate predictions that are made a priori. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative's National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge, is an open challenge to the community to forecast daily greenness values, measured through digital images collected by the PhenoCam Network at NEON sites before the data are collected. For the first round of the challenge, which is presented here, we forecasted canopy greenness throughout the spring at eight deciduous broadleaf sites to investigate when, where, and for what model type phenology forecast skill is highest. A total of 192,536 predictions were submitted, representing eighteen models, including a persistence and a day of year mean null models. We found that overall forecast skill was highest when forecasting earlier in the greenup curve compared to the end, for shorter lead times, for sites that greened up earlier, and when submitting forecasts during times other than near budburst. The models based on day of year historical mean had the highest predictive skill across the challenge period. In this first round of the challenge, by synthesizing across forecasts, we started to elucidate what factors affect the predictive skill of near-term phenology forecasts.
Remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data offer strong potential to support data-driven approaches for sustainable water management. However, practitioners require robust and rigorous accuracy assessments of such data. The OpenET system, which includes an ensemble of six remote sensing models, was developed to increase access to field-scale (30 m) ET data for the contiguous United States. Here we compare OpenET outputs against data from 152 in situ stations, primarily eddy covariance flux towers, deployed across the contiguous United States. Mean absolute error at cropland sites for the OpenET ensemble value is 15.8 mm per month (17% of mean observed ET), mean bias error is −5.3 mm per month (6%) and r2 is 0.9. Results for shrublands and forested sites show higher inter-model variability and lower accuracy relative to croplands. High accuracy and multi-model convergence across croplands demonstrate the utility of a model ensemble approach, and enhance confidence among ET data practitioners, including the agricultural water resource management community.
This report presents climate change-informed resource stewardship strategies for diverse Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve natural and cultural resources. The strategies were developed in early 2022 by park staff and other subject-matter experts in a scenario-based climate change adaptation planning process. Strategy development was facilitated by National Park Service (NPS) climate change adaptation specialists. Strategies address critical climate change implications for park resources identified in an immediately preceding (fall-2021) climate-resource scenario development process. The overall, nearly-year-long scenario- and strategy-development process was entirely virtual due
Fire plays a critical role in forests of the western United States (US), but as wildfire and climate deviate from historical patterns, increasing fire activity may significantly alter forest ecosystems. To understand the impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity on conifer forests, we studied the impact of wildfire and annual post-fire climate on western larch (Larix occidentalis) regeneration. We destructively sampled 1651 seedlings from 57 sites within 32 fires that burned at moderate or high severity from 2000-2015 in the northwestern US. Using dendrochronological methods, we estimated germination years of seedlings to calculate annual recruitment rates. We used boosted regression trees to.03 model the annual probability of recruitment as a function of wildfire-related factors including distance-to-seed-source, satellite-derived fire severity, and time-since-fire, and using annual post-fire climate variables reflecting temperature and water availability. The majority of recruitment occurred within five years after fire, and at sites with northerly aspects that were within 25 m of mature pre-fire western larch. Wildfire-related factors had the highest relative influence on post-fire recruitment (87%), whereas post-fire climate had less influence (13%). Annual recruitment probability increased with growing season actual evapotranspiration, to a maximum c. 275 mm, and then decreased. Annual recruitment probability decreased as growing season climatic water deficit increased. These patterns are consistent with shade-intolerant traits and the temperature and moisture requirements of western larch. Our results suggest that climate warming has had variable, yet net-neutral, impacts on the climate suitability for post-fire western larch regeneration across its range – with suitability increasing modestly at ‘cooler and wetter’ sites and decreasing modestly at ‘warmer and drier’ sites. Overall, there is and has been broad climate suitability for post-fire regeneration across the distribution of western larch in the US. The strong influence of wildfire-related factors on post-fire regeneration highlights the important impact that management decisions can have in promoting western larch. For instance, facilitating prescribed or managed wildfire with moderate- to high-severity patches will generate conditions most suitable for natural regeneration, as long as a seed source remains nearby. Additionally, our findings support monitoring for natural regeneration or directing outcomes by planting within the first five years after fire, consistent with current management practices.
An estimated 50–80% of North America’s ducks use the millions of wetland basins in the Prairie Pothole Region as breeding habitat. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of grasslands and wetlands in the United States portion of the Prairie Pothole Region with the primary purpose to support breeding duck habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that wetlands that have historically provided the highest value to breeding ducks will continue to do so into the future. The dynamic nature of climate in the Northern Great Plains and continued increases in air temperatures and precipitation variability have the potential to disrupt the desired outcomes of management agencies. The focus of this study is to better understand the sensitivity of prairie-pothole wetlands to climate change and help USFWS evaluate potential impacts to breeding ducks. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. We identified divergent future climate scenarios to consider important future climate uncertainties and simulated breeding duck pair responses to climate-driven impacts on wetland water levels. We have developed model estimates of future duck pair distribution under four climate scenarios for mid and end of century and currently are incorporating these estimates into the USFWS “predictive maps” that are used by refuge managers to prioritize wetland acquisition and management decisions. Additionally, our future duck-pair projections are being incorporated by another research team to develop economic optimization models to aid future conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region.
Project Overview Infectious disease poses a growing threat to wildlife and human health, and managing disease threats is complicated by climatic changes that can change levels of disease risk. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will co-develop a method to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change, providing critical useable information to Montana’s wildlife managers. This information will be used to proactively manage infectious wildlife diseases and will be integrated into management planning documents, like the State Wildlife Action Plan. Project Summary Infectious disease is a pressing concern for wildlife conservation and human health. Natural resource managers face a wide range of potential disease threats, but often have little information about effective management strategies or about various levels of potential risk. Climate change further complicates this challenge by rapidly shifting disease risk and introducing new threats. To prioritize limited resources, managers need clear, accessible information on how climate impacts wildlife diseases. Stakeholders in the North Central region (including partners at Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks) have communicated this need for a better understanding of climate change impacts on wildlife disease and have requested scientific support to help compile and integrate this information into key management documents like State Wildlife Action Plans. This project seeks to co-develop an approach to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change and apply this approach to identify high-priority threats for imperiled wildlife and aquatic species in Montana. The approach will combine existing scientific research with strong user engagement. A major outcome of the project will be integrating climate and disease information into Montana’s revised State Wildlife Action Plan, enabling the state to receive funding for and take on-the-ground actions targeting infectious disease impacts on wildlife. Understanding future disease threats under climate change is critical for implementing proactive management strategies that effectively limit disease spread. This project will also generate broadly relevant information on the management of novel disease threats under a changing climate, helping to better integrate disease management into climate adaptation science.
Project Overview The iconic grizzly bear of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has exhibited a remarkable recovery in response to concerted conservation actions implemented since its listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1975. However, information regarding the potential effects and timing of climate change in conjunction with increasing human recreation and development will be important for future management of this population. Investigating these potential impacts and providing manager with a range of actionable options to mitigate their effects is the goal of this study. Researchers supported by this North Central project will use grizzly bear demographic and climate data to collaboratively develop an adaptive decision framework with park managers to evaluate demographic response of grizzly bears under different climate and human use scenarios. The decision framework can be adapted to other species and ecosystems and used by resource managers to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wildlife in the region. Project Summary The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is home to most of North America's large mammal species, but climate change, continued land development, and other human activities may threaten the diverse wildlife in the ecosystem. Among the region’s iconic species, the grizzly bear draws visitors from across the globe. Grizzly bears in the lower 48 states are listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and they live a long time and reproduce slowly, which make populations especially vulnerable to even small changes in demographic rates prompted by changes in habitat and food resources, human activities, and climate change. Understanding how these factors influence grizzly bears is necessary to mitigate impacts to the viability of this species for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of current and future generations. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop “Best Management Practices” that will optimize the future viability of grizzly bears as they respond to a rapidly changing ecosystem. Three national park units in the region (Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and the John D. Rockefeller, Jr. Memorial Parkway) serve as important refugia for grizzly bears and other wildlife. This project will inform resource management decisions across the three national parks for this iconic species by developing an adaptive decision framework built from extensive grizzly bear population data and climate assessments. This approach will allow the project team to predict future scenarios and identify potential population tipping points. Multiple workshops with managers will be held to review scientific findings and co-produce the decision analysis, which will be transferable to other species, ecosystems, and resource management agencies. The output from this project can be used by National Park Service and other resource managers to address potential climate change and human impacts on iconic wildlife populations of this ecosystem.
Project Overview The Fort Berthold Indian Reservation faces challenges in maintaining stream health due to recent extreme weather events, oil and gas development, and row crop expansion. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will assess how these changes affect stream health while providing career development for undergraduate researchers from Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish College (NHSC) and United Tribes Technical College. The project will inform climate adaptation strategies and support sustainable resource management for the Mandan Arikara Nation. Project Summary The Fort Berthold Indian Reservation has faced many environmental challenges since 2001, including extreme drought and precipitation events, oil and gas development, and row crop expansion. These changes have likely impacted the health of prairie streams, which are important for reducing flood risk, drought risk, and erosion, and for supporting diverse plant and animal communities, cycling nutrients, and providing cultural and recreational value (e.g., angling, nature watching). Clean streams also offer valuable water for human consumption, and provide water, forage, and shelter to wildlife and livestock. This project aims to assess how climate and land-use changes affect the ecological integrity of prairie streams located within the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. The project will build on a 2001 assessment of stream health conducted in the region, updating the assessment to consider recent extreme climate events and development. Additionally, the project will provide hands-on training and leadership experiences for undergraduate researchers from Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish College (NHSC) and United Tribes Technical College. The project is a collaborative effort with NHSC to develop the workforce and empower young researchers to pursue careers in science. The outcomes of this project will provide information on how regional factors of climate change, oil and gas development, and land-use change have impacted the health of small prairie streams within the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. This information will be invaluable for the Mandan Arikara Nation in identifying areas for climate adaptation and management, as well as supporting community decision-making and sustainable surface water resource management.