The Prairie Potholes Region of the northern Great Plains is under threat from the combined effects of introduced perennial grasses and climate change, which are driving plant community shifts and biodiversity loss. We synthesized current knowledge on how climate change drivers (i.e., precipitation variability, elevated atmospheric CO2, and warming) and other local and regional biotic and abiotic factors, like soil nutrients and community diversity, impact grassland vegetation through their effects on Smooth Brome and Kentucky Bluegrass. Based on this synthesis, we provide a qualitative assessment of potential responses of Smooth Brome and Kentucky Bluegrass to different scenarios of seasonal water availability, warming climate, and elevated atmospheric CO2 to inform future grassland management.

The goal of this project was to support efforts by the Blackfeet Nation in Montana to manage their lands  in ways that promote climate and cultural resilience and improve grassland and soil health. One strategy for building such resilience is to utilize strategic management of grasslands and grazing activities as a  “natural climate solution”. This includes the restoration of free-ranging bison to grassland landscapes and the management of livestock in ways that approximate wild bison grazing behavior, as well as other practices that can support revitalized and resilient grassland ecosystems. To support strategic grassland and grazing management decisions on Blackfeet lands, we synthesized information on bison and cattle grazing as tools for climate mitigation (via soil carbon sequestration and storage) and adaptation (by supporting healthy grassland ecosystems better able to tolerate warmer temperatures and changing precipitation dynamics). Communications activities shared results from the synthesis and on-going climate adaptation work led by the Piikani Lodge Health Institute with Blackfeet land managers and others in the region. Alongside these synthesis and communications activities, we laid the groundwork for the development of an Indigenous Scholars Hub to support the integration of Indigenous science and cultural practice with western science perspectives, to address timely natural and cultural resource management issues on Tribal lands. Key deliverables from this project included a Masters Thesis chapter (by Indigenous scholar Latrice Tatsey), the development and presentation of communications products (infographics, presentations, and video storyboards), and the piloting of key elements of the Indigenous Scholars Hub via a summer internship program. Overall, this project successfully contributed to and shared knowledge about the role of bison and cattle grazing management and other Indigenous biocultural regenerative agricultural practices at supporting healthy and resilient grassland ecosystems in the face of a changing climate. 

These data were compiled to evaluate pinyon-juniper regeneration dynamics following stand-replacing wildfire and thinning treatments. Objectives of our study were to investigate vegetation community composition and tree recruitment in post-fire and post-thinning environments. These data represent plant and biological soil crust community composition and climatological records among intact, thinned, and burned pinyon–juniper woodlands. These data were collected in Mesa Verde National Park and Ute Mountain Ute Tribal Park from 6/1/2021 to 6/10/2021 and from 03/1/2022 to 11/30/2022 at two burned and two intact pinyon-juniper ecosystems in Mesa Verde National Park only. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Park Service, and Northern Arizona University through field observation and sensor arrays. These data can be used to interpret community composition and climatological differences among intact, thinned, and burned pinyon–juniper woodlands.

With the Surface-Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) we provide a standardized metric for describing one- to five-year anomalies of the annual minimum surface-water extent of streams and wetlands for multiple spatial scales including basin (4-digit hydrologic unit codes [HUCs]) to subwatersheds (12-digit HUCs). Drier conditions are represented by negative SWIPE values that range from 0 to -3 standard deviations from zero, or the normal condition. SWIPe is calculated for the upper Missouri River basin using streamflow permanence probability estimates from the Probability of Streamflow Permanence for the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPERum) model and surface-water inundation observations from the Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) dataset for years 1989-2021. The upper Missouri River basin consists of four-digit HUCs 1002-1013. Intrinsic mode functions that describe overall and interannual trends in the underlying SWIPe timeseries, and the significance, are provided as part of this data release. SWIPe is calculated using several different cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) including generalized normal, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, Pearson-3, Weibull, and generalized Pareto. The CDF with p-values < 0.05 based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test and the lowest the lowest Akaike Information Criterion was used to model probabilities on which SWIPe is based. An empirical CDF was applied when all of the theoretical CDFs resulted in p-values > 0.05. The probabilities were standardized to have a mean around zero and standard deviation of one.

Climate change is a primary threat to biodiversity, but for most species, we still lack information required to assess their potential vulnerability to changes. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a widely-used technique to rank relative vulnerability to climate change based on species distributions, habitat associations, environmental tolerances, and life-history traits. For species that we expect are vulnerable to climate change yet are data deficient, like many amphibians, we often lack information required to construct traditional CCVAs. We extended the CCVA framework by constructing models based on life history theory, using empirical evidence of traits and distributions that reflected sensitivity of data-deficient species to environmental perturbation. These csv data files were assembled to perform climate change vulnerability assessments of the 31 amphibian species, both across the north central region and within individual US states. We incorporated information from species' life history traits and other characteristics along with climate projections of evapotranspiration deficit change, to score relative vulnerability of the 31 amphibians. Associated R code is for scoring relative vulnerability, where overall score is a product of exposure to climate change times sensitivity to that change, minus adaptive capacity of each species. All species are listed as Species of Greatest Conservation Need in at least one of 7 states in the North Central United States: Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas.