Surface-water availability has major implications for the environment and society in the 21st century. With climate change, increased drought severity, and altered water and land use, future water availability is predicted to continue to decline in many areas, including much of the western United States. An understanding of where and when water will be available at multiple scales is crucial for the planning and management of wildlife health, recreation, and energy development. Currently, indices describing water presence and permanence exist for specific surface-water components (for example, streams and wetlands); however, a general surface-water permanence index that includes all major surface-water components is lacking. Developing a Surface-Water Index of Permanence can provide a reliable metric to understand future river reach- to region-scale surface-water permanence and availability and inform land management and policy decisions.

A key assumption behind many predictions of ecosystem response to climate change is that plant species will track their suitable climates through space and time. However, climate connectivity – the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement – will strongly influence how plants are able to move through the landscape. Forward-looking, climate change-informed conservation and protected area stewardship requires an understanding of climate connectivity. Several factors affect climate connectivity and plant species movements, such as the distance that needs to be traveled to track suitable climate, which may exceed the dispersal ability of many species. Additionally, land use intensity in the unprotected matrix will limit climate-induced range shifts among protected areas for some species. Exposure to increasingly dissimilar climates may also impede climate-induced range shifts. While these constraints on species range shifts are well established, they have not yet been integrated to predict species-specific range movements and identify where intervention might be necessary to facilitate climate connectivity. Building on previous research, this project will develop species-specific assessments of climate connectivity and potential range shifts for a suite of management-relevant species within the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center's protected area network including national forests and the unprotected matrix of federal, private, and tribal lands.

Climate change, cheatgrass, and increases in wildfire frequency are significant threats to big sagebrush rangelands. Frequent fire can provide opportunities for cheatgrass, a non-native annual grass, to colonize, resulting in negative effects for native species, increases in fire risk, and potential transitions from native shrublands to non-native grasslands. We currently know little about how cheatgrass and fire will affect big sagebrush rangelands in the future. Our objective was to assess the vulnerability of big sagebrush plant communities to changes in future climate, fire, and cheatgrass to guide conservation priorities and planning efforts. This work developed maps of projected 21st century changes in the abundance of important components of big sagebrush plant communities across the region. Results from this analysis demonstrate that climate change has strong potential to exacerbate the impacts of cheatgrass and wildfire. In the absence of wildfire, projected future declines in big sagebrush are relatively modest (Palmquist et al. 2021). In contrast, the combination of climate change and wildfire results in more substantial and widespread declines in big sagebrush, including in portions of the region that have been historically resilient to cheatgrass invasion (England et al. in prep.). In addition, our results suggest a potential shift in the composition of perennial grasses in the region from dominance by cool-season grasses, to dominance to warm-season grasses (Palmquist et al. 2021). This shift would have dramatic negative impacts on the services provided by big sagebrush ecosystems, particularly wildlife habitat value and grazing utilization. These results are designed for range-wide conservation and land treatment prioritization, and are being used in a new interagency sagebrush landscape conservation framework led by the USFWS and the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (Doherty et al. in review).