Climate change and land use change are crucial determinants of crop water consumption, particularly in drylands where water scarcity limits crop production. In Central Asia, the effects of land use and climate changes on crop water consumption remain unknown. We estimated the dynamics of crop water consumption by mapping annual actual evapotranspiration from Landsat imagery from 1987 to 2019 for all irrigated croplands in the Amu Darya Basin, the largest transboundary river in Central Asia. Total crop water consumption increased by 10%, while average consumption per unit area increased by 18%. Climate change was the main driver of the rising crop water consumption; land use changes towards less water-intensive cropping practices offset only 3% of this increase. Our findings underscore that crop production will become increasingly challenging amidst accelerating climatic changes and that changing cropping practices alone will be insufficient to curb the growing water scarcity without a global commitment to reducing emissions.

Ecosystem exchanges of carbon, water, and energy are central to Earth system functioning, yet their sensitivities to environmental variability remain poorly constrained across biomes and climates. Here, we analyzed ≥ 5 years of eddy covariance data from 87 AmeriFlux sites (964 site-years) spanning six vegetation types and a broad range of climatic conditions to examine the controls and multi-year trends of gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), and the Bowen ratio. We trained boosted regression tree ensembles with environmental (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil water content, atmospheric CO2, radiation, wind speed) and temporal (month, year) variables and used interpretable machine learning—SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE)—to quantify driver importance and nonlinear responses. Across biomes and along climatic gradients, environmental controls reorganized predictably: radiation dominated under warm and humid conditions, whereas soil moisture exerted a stronger influence in drier or warmer systems. GPP and ET were shaped by similar dominant drivers, with radiation and temperature generally strongest but soil moisture exerting comparable influence in some biomes. WUE was consistently constrained by vapor pressure deficit, indicating stomatal regulation under rising atmospheric dryness. In contrast, controls on the Bowen ratio diverged more across biomes, indicating heterogeneity in how ecosystems partition energy between latent and sensible heat. Multi-year trend analysis revealed negative associations of GPP and ET with rising atmospheric demand, and positive associations of the Bowen ratio with drying, indicating reduced evaporative cooling and stronger land–atmosphere coupling. Together, these findings show that while carbon and water fluxes remain tightly coupled across timescales, their balances reorganize predictably along bioclimatic gradients. This framework underscores the value of long-term flux networks and interpretable machine learning for benchmarking Earth system models and constraining projections of terrestrial carbon–water–energy dynamics under climate change.

Background Wildfires are burning more area across the western US than they have in the recent past, driving an increased need for post-fire reforestation. At the same time, trees are struggling to keep up with climate change and post-fire tree planting may present an opportunity to plant seedlings from seed sources adapted to changing conditions. To better understand how reforestation outcomes for an ecologically and economically important conifer species in the northwestern US vary with seed source and site conditions, we conducted a post-fire western larch (Larix occidentalis) planting experiment in western Montana. We ask (1) what biophysical factors influence post-fire western larch planted seedling mortality and growth? and (2) does planting seedlings from a lower-elevation seed source decrease mortality at the driest and warmest sites and/or increase mortality at the coldest sites? Results We planted western larch seedlings from a low-elevation and a high-elevation seed source across an elevation gradient and monitored seedling mortality and growth for 3 years. Overall seedling mortality 3 years post-planting was similar between seed sources with higher and more variable mortality in the low-elevation plots (ranging from 15 to 94% depending on seed source and plot combination; mean (sd) 60(28)%) and lower mortality in the mid-elevation and high-elevation plots (2–19%; mean (sd) 9(5.6)%). Planting seedlings from a lower-elevation seed source did not increase short-term mortality at the highest-elevation plots. Seedling mortality and growth were strongly related to site conditions, with higher mortality and lower growth associated with more southerly aspects, higher maximum temperatures, and lower soil moisture. Seedlings from the high-elevation seed source showed a stronger negative response to high maximum temperatures than seedlings from the low-elevation seed source for both mortality and growth. Conclusions Biophysical conditions at the planting site were the stronger drivers of seedling mortality, with seed source acting as a secondary control. Interactive effects between microclimate and seed source suggest that seedlings from the low-elevation seed source may perform better under warming conditions. For western larch reforestation, site selection may have more impact on short-term survival than planting different seed sources, although we find some evidence that seed source may mediate responses to warming. Longer-term outcomes will require additional monitoring.

Hybrid invited paper session recorded at the Ecological Society of America's Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon. August 6-11, 2023. OOS 67.

Despite the presence of ethics in every management decision, ethics language and tools are unfamiliar to most public land managers. Fortunately, ethics is not a complicated, abstract specialty conducted by toga-wearing Greeks who ponder the imponderable. It is the fundamental activity of deciding what matters, a shared deliberation about what to value and what world we want to live in. Park management includes questions of this kind at every turn.

Conservation planning is important to ensure both ecological and social benefits of natural resources, including the maintenance of functional ecosystems and stable wildlife populations as well as the provision of resources that communities rely on. Yet, the integration of the human dimensions of conservation planning remains limited in practice. This thesis examines conservation planning in South Dakota and within Joint Venture (JV) partnerships, using qualitative methods to identify challenges and opportunities for more effective and coordinated planning. In chapter one, I examine how collaboration, public participation, and the use of climate information are integrated conservation planning in South Dakota and identify opportunities for improvement. I conducted in-depth interviews with 35 natural resource managers in federal and state agencies, and nonprofit organizations, as well as content analysis of 56 conservation plans. The study finds that the absence of complementary organizational goals, inadequate public engagement methods, and limited understanding of climate data constrain planning outcomes. Despite these challenges, examples such as the Central Grasslands Roadmap and community-based coalitions demonstrate that relational approaches to conservation planning can improve collaboration, increase participation, and improve the use of scientific information in decision-making. The study positioned relationships as foundational to improve conservation planning across collaboration, public participation, and the use of climate information. In chapter two, I examined human dimensions understanding and capacity needs within two JV partnerships operating in the Midwest. I used free listing exercises and semi-structured interviews with 29 JV participants to collect data, and I applied descriptive statistics, Smith's salience index, and reflexive thematic analysis to identify capacity gaps and opportunities. The findings revealed that, of the nine domains identified by JV participants, 17.2% could only name one domain, and nearly a quarter (27.3%) could name three domains, reflecting a limited understanding of the field. Three salient capacity needs were identified: developing human dimensions expertise, recognizing the importance of human dimensions, and conducting human dimensions research. Corresponding opportunities included increasing collaboration through partnerships, understanding how values shape conservation behavior, and incorporating social science research into planning processes. The findings reflect an organizational culture that prioritizes biological sciences in a way that limits human dimensions integration. Both chapters of the thesis demonstrate that sustainable conservation planning outcomes depend on effective human dimensions integration. Strengthening relationships across partners and investing in human dimensions capacity are critical for conservation planning that is inclusive, adaptive, and sustainable, and supports functional ecosystems and stable wildlife populations.

Human-driven ecological transformations threaten traditional management approaches to protected areas. The resist-accept-direct framework has been utilised within the U.S. National Park Service to help land managers make decisions during global change. But in U.S. land management agencies and beyond, there is often not enough appreciation that decisions about responding to change are laden with values. Using academic and agency literature, and drawing on interviews with U.S. National Park Service staff, we show how ethics is central to decisions about managing for the future. We identify six particularly salient ethical considerations that may be helpful for managers. We explain why they are ethical and why they should be recognised as such. During this ethical examination, we find connections between Indigenous and non-Indigenous environmental ethics for land management and suggest that ‘relationships gathered in place’ may be an especially valuable ethical lens for thinking about ecological transformation. The article closes with some tentative recommendations about how to consider trade-offs when values conflict.

The grasslands in the North Central region are managed by a diverse group of Federal, State, and Tribal agencies; nongovernmental organizations; partnerships; and private landowners. This chapter highlights these various grassland management entities, provides background information on their mission and organizational structure, and describes some of their key grassland management activities, including the way in which each entity engages private landowners in grassland management. Each section also describes emerging challenges and opportunities and high-level information needs. The review and synthesis of grassland management-related documents identified specific information needs, which are listed in an appendix to provide additional detail for anyone looking to collaborate with grassland management entities on shared interests in grassland management or research.

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands, one of the most extensive mature and old-growth woodland types in the Western United States, provide critical ecological, cultural, and economic benefits but face increasing threats from climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and pests. We developed the PJ Woodland Climate Adaptation Management Menu, a decision support tool designed to guide adaptive, climate-informed management of PJ ecosystems, particularly within the Colorado Plateau ecoregion. The menu was created through an iterative, collaborative process involving literature review, integration of strategies from existing adaptation frameworks, and extensive input from scientists, land managers, and community partners during workshops and focus groups. The menu links specific, evidence-based approaches to each of six broad strategies, including soliciting community input, mitigating disturbance, enhancing and maintaining biodiversity, conserving ecotones, timing actions for optimal outcomes, and accepting climate-driven changes when appropriate. It is intended for use with the Adaptation Workbook to help managers connect local goals and climate vulnerabilities to tailored management tactics. Hypothetical scenarios demonstrate the menu’s application to contrasting PJ woodland conditions, from die-off events to old-growth maintenance. Lessons learned during development underscore the value of early stakeholder engagement, cross-sector collaboration, and balancing diverse ecological objectives. This menu offers a flexible, transferable framework to strengthen climate resilience in PJ woodlands and serves as a model that could improve adaptation planning in other dryland forest ecosystems.

Managing species in an uncertain future is a reality for natural resource decision makers. Climate change is expected to exacerbate threats such as habitat loss and disease, and cause phenological mismatches, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude of these effects. Amphibians are among the most threatened taxa on earth, and most species in North America are uniquely tied to water availability for breeding, larval development, thermal refugia, and food availability. Changes in water availability and temperature may result in phenological mismatches with one or more of these processes. Thus, quantifying the dependency of amphibians to water on the landscape is critical to understanding how species may respond, as well as understanding the interplay with other threats, such as disease. We developed a dynamic co-occurrence occupancy model to explore the effects of climate change on the breeding occurrence of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM). We derived novel covariates to test hypotheses related to multi-generational impacts of climate on the dynamics of both boreal toad breeding and Bd. We report estimates of current (2001–2019) and future (2055–2069) occupancy under a range of plausible climate scenarios. The probability of boreal toad breeding occurrence at a site in the SRM declined > 40% from 2001 to 2019, and further declines are likely under future scenarios, particularly as active season length increases. To help integrate this information into management, we developed a web-based decision support tool to summarize predicted future hydrological and occupancy conditions.