An estimated 50–80% of North America’s ducks use the millions of wetland basins in the Prairie Pothole Region as breeding habitat. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of grasslands and wetlands in the United States portion of the Prairie Pothole Region with the primary purpose to support breeding duck habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that wetlands that have historically provided the highest value to breeding ducks will continue to do so into the future. The dynamic nature of climate in the Northern Great Plains and continued increases in air temperatures and precipitation variability have the potential to disrupt the desired outcomes of management agencies. The focus of this study is to better understand the sensitivity of prairie-pothole wetlands to climate change and help USFWS evaluate potential impacts to breeding ducks. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. We identified divergent future climate scenarios to consider important future climate uncertainties and simulated breeding duck pair responses to climate-driven impacts on wetland water levels. We have developed model estimates of future duck pair distribution under four climate scenarios for mid and end of century and currently are incorporating these estimates into the USFWS “predictive maps” that are used by refuge managers to prioritize wetland acquisition and management decisions. Additionally, our future duck-pair projections are being incorporated by another research team to develop economic optimization models to aid future conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region.
Project Overview Infectious disease poses a growing threat to wildlife and human health, and managing disease threats is complicated by climatic changes that can change levels of disease risk. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will co-develop a method to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change, providing critical useable information to Montana’s wildlife managers. This information will be used to proactively manage infectious wildlife diseases and will be integrated into management planning documents, like the State Wildlife Action Plan. Project Summary Infectious disease is a pressing concern for wildlife conservation and human health. Natural resource managers face a wide range of potential disease threats, but often have little information about effective management strategies or about various levels of potential risk. Climate change further complicates this challenge by rapidly shifting disease risk and introducing new threats. To prioritize limited resources, managers need clear, accessible information on how climate impacts wildlife diseases. Stakeholders in the North Central region (including partners at Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks) have communicated this need for a better understanding of climate change impacts on wildlife disease and have requested scientific support to help compile and integrate this information into key management documents like State Wildlife Action Plans. This project seeks to co-develop an approach to rank wildlife disease threats under climate change and apply this approach to identify high-priority threats for imperiled wildlife and aquatic species in Montana. The approach will combine existing scientific research with strong user engagement. A major outcome of the project will be integrating climate and disease information into Montana’s revised State Wildlife Action Plan, enabling the state to receive funding for and take on-the-ground actions targeting infectious disease impacts on wildlife. Understanding future disease threats under climate change is critical for implementing proactive management strategies that effectively limit disease spread. This project will also generate broadly relevant information on the management of novel disease threats under a changing climate, helping to better integrate disease management into climate adaptation science.
Project Overview The iconic grizzly bear of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem has exhibited a remarkable recovery in response to concerted conservation actions implemented since its listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1975. However, information regarding the potential effects and timing of climate change in conjunction with increasing human recreation and development will be important for future management of this population. Investigating these potential impacts and providing manager with a range of actionable options to mitigate their effects is the goal of this study. Researchers supported by this North Central project will use grizzly bear demographic and climate data to collaboratively develop an adaptive decision framework with park managers to evaluate demographic response of grizzly bears under different climate and human use scenarios. The decision framework can be adapted to other species and ecosystems and used by resource managers to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wildlife in the region. Project Summary The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is home to most of North America's large mammal species, but climate change, continued land development, and other human activities may threaten the diverse wildlife in the ecosystem. Among the region’s iconic species, the grizzly bear draws visitors from across the globe. Grizzly bears in the lower 48 states are listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act, and they live a long time and reproduce slowly, which make populations especially vulnerable to even small changes in demographic rates prompted by changes in habitat and food resources, human activities, and climate change. Understanding how these factors influence grizzly bears is necessary to mitigate impacts to the viability of this species for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of current and future generations. The ultimate goal of this project is to develop “Best Management Practices” that will optimize the future viability of grizzly bears as they respond to a rapidly changing ecosystem. Three national park units in the region (Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and the John D. Rockefeller, Jr. Memorial Parkway) serve as important refugia for grizzly bears and other wildlife. This project will inform resource management decisions across the three national parks for this iconic species by developing an adaptive decision framework built from extensive grizzly bear population data and climate assessments. This approach will allow the project team to predict future scenarios and identify potential population tipping points. Multiple workshops with managers will be held to review scientific findings and co-produce the decision analysis, which will be transferable to other species, ecosystems, and resource management agencies. The output from this project can be used by National Park Service and other resource managers to address potential climate change and human impacts on iconic wildlife populations of this ecosystem.
Project Overview The Fort Berthold Indian Reservation faces challenges in maintaining stream health due to recent extreme weather events, oil and gas development, and row crop expansion. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will assess how these changes affect stream health while providing career development for undergraduate researchers from Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish College (NHSC) and United Tribes Technical College. The project will inform climate adaptation strategies and support sustainable resource management for the Mandan Arikara Nation. Project Summary The Fort Berthold Indian Reservation has faced many environmental challenges since 2001, including extreme drought and precipitation events, oil and gas development, and row crop expansion. These changes have likely impacted the health of prairie streams, which are important for reducing flood risk, drought risk, and erosion, and for supporting diverse plant and animal communities, cycling nutrients, and providing cultural and recreational value (e.g., angling, nature watching). Clean streams also offer valuable water for human consumption, and provide water, forage, and shelter to wildlife and livestock. This project aims to assess how climate and land-use changes affect the ecological integrity of prairie streams located within the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. The project will build on a 2001 assessment of stream health conducted in the region, updating the assessment to consider recent extreme climate events and development. Additionally, the project will provide hands-on training and leadership experiences for undergraduate researchers from Nueta Hidatsa Sahnish College (NHSC) and United Tribes Technical College. The project is a collaborative effort with NHSC to develop the workforce and empower young researchers to pursue careers in science. The outcomes of this project will provide information on how regional factors of climate change, oil and gas development, and land-use change have impacted the health of small prairie streams within the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. This information will be invaluable for the Mandan Arikara Nation in identifying areas for climate adaptation and management, as well as supporting community decision-making and sustainable surface water resource management.
Project Overview Climate change and human activities are threatening many sensitive aquatic species in prairie streams across the Great Plains region. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will combine and analyze data collected independently by Great Plains states to identify thresholds of environmental change that may lead to species loss and changes in aquatic communities. This information can guide managers in deciding whether to resist, accept, or direct change in these ecosystems to protect organisms and ecosystem services. Project Summary Prairie streams provide economic, recreational, and municipal services for human society and critical habitat for aquatic organisms including fish, crayfish, and mussels. However, environmental conditions in and around these streams have been significantly altered by landcover conversion, road and dam construction, and climate change. Many organisms in streams are sensitive to these environmental changes, which often dictate where and when they can successfully survive. Yet, across the Great Plains, there is limited knowledge about thresholds in environmental conditions that cause some organisms to disappear from local habitat. This research team will work with managers and conservation practitioners across Great Plains states to predict the level of environmental change that leads to changes in species composition across the region. Independent data collection efforts (stream monitoring data and data of aquatic species’ assemblages) across states in the Great Plains will be combined, analyzed, and summarized to identify these thresholds of environmental change and estimate the overall health of streams in prairie ecosystems. Not all prairie stream organisms will be able to track their ideal environmental conditions, so on-the-ground management actions will be needed to promote the persistence of some species. Results from this project will provide essential data to guide management and decision-making on where and when to implement actions to deal with climate and human-induced shifts in the presence and composition of aquatic organisms.
Project Overview: Native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYA) are ecologically and socio-economically important species, but are threatened by drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will use climate data and extensive population records to assess the various threats to the species and to create a data visualization tool to help managers prioritize conservation actions for these vulnerable and valuable fish populations. Project Summary: In the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), drought, rising water temperatures, habitat loss, and non-native species are threatening the persistence of native fishes, including trout and whitefish. These fishes have enormous ecological and socioeconomic value. Recreationally, for example, hundreds of millions of dollars are spent by tourists each year to fish for these species. Understanding the vulnerability of these populations to interacting climate-related threats is critical for informing management decisions. Researchers supported by this project will use extensive records (from over 10,000 sites) collected by multiple management agencies and project partners, and climate data across the GYA to: (1) determine the effect of multiple threats on populations of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish; (2) identify the vulnerability of populations to climate change; and (3) use this information to help resource managers identify and prioritize actions that will benefit native fishes, and to identify locations where taking action would be most beneficial. Results from this project will be incorporated into the RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) decision framework and distributed to managers through a series of workshops. The workshops will also allow the managers to help the project team build a public data visualization tool that best suits their needs. The tool will compile data and modeling results from the project and display current and future vulnerabilities of fish populations to threats at local and regional spatial scales. These products will help managers make informed decisions about how to best allocate limited time and money towards conservation of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish.
Project Overview Migratory big game species, like mule deer, are at risk due to human development and more frequent drought events that can limit access to food resources during migration. To address this, researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will collaborate with State, Tribal, and Federal agencies to examine the effectiveness of corridor conservation as a strategy to improve drought resilience for over 40 mule deer herds across Western states. Ultimately, results from this project will benefit ongoing conservation efforts by identifying what levels of development impacts the species’ ability to deal with drought. Project Summary Every year, migratory big game move across landscapes to seek out important food resources and to avoid harsh weather. Yet, the landscapes animals move through are experiencing rapid changes from human development and shifting climatic conditions, which put these ecologically and culturally important migrations at risk. Mule deer, for example, are negatively impacted by drought, which changes when and where key food resources will be available along their migration route. To conserve big game migrations, State, Tribal, and Federal agencies are working together to map and protect migration corridors. Although it is often assumed that corridor conservation should enhance the resilience of migrants to climate change, the idea remains poorly tested. This project will examine the effectiveness of corridor conservation as a drought resiliency strategy for mule deer across the West. As climate change leads to more frequent and longer drought events, it will likely become even more important for deer to freely move and access critical and limited food resources during migrations. At the same time, mule deer movements are altered by human disturbances, which can cause deer to miss out on foraging opportunities. This project will bring together data and partnerships to investigate these two threats on more than 40 mule deer herds across the West, with the aim of understanding the importance of freedom of movement in the survival and resiliency of mule deer in a changing world. Results from this project will identify the amount of human development that constrains the movements of mule deer and the impacts of diminished mobility on drought resiliency. This research links two USGS priorities – conserving big game migrations and enhancing climate resiliency – while filling important knowledge gaps needed to strategically target ongoing conservation efforts.
Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic conditions to help optimize management strategies of wildlife and cattle. Project Summary Prairie dogs are crucial to North America’s Central Grasslands, creating habitat for other wildlife by digging burrows and clipping vegetation, and serving as a key food source for many predators. However, the sylvatic plague, a non-native disease with over 99% mortality in prairie dogs leads to sudden population die-offs followed by several years of recovery. While wildlife that depend on prairie dogs for food and habitat are negatively affected when populations collapse, the recovery period can cause conflicts with livestock producers, as prairie dogs decrease the available vegetation for grazing cattle. Researchers supported by this project will create an interactive web-based tool that can be used by managers and stakeholders for decision support, as the tool predicts where and when prairie dog colony growth and collapses are likely to occur under changing climatic conditions. This should allow managers to strategically reduce the likelihood of undesirable outcomes for wildlife and livestock. Additionally, the interactive tool will help users determine the best management approaches to achieve their specific goals and will evaluate different management strategies with a cost analysis assessment. This project will involve a diverse group of stakeholders from state and federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, and Tribal Nations to co-produce the tool. A decision support tool is much needed to facilitate co-existence of the prairie dog ecosystem with local communities and livestock producers, especially under an increasingly uncertain and changing climate.
Simulation models are valuable tools for estimating ecosystem response to environmental conditions and are particularly relevant for investigating climate change impacts. However, because of high computational requirements, models are often applied over a coarse grid of points or for representative locations. Spatial interpolation of model output can be necessary to guide decision-making, yet interpolation is not straightforward because the interpolated values must maintain the covariance structure among variables. We present methods for two key steps for utilizing limited simulations to generate detailed maps of multivariate and time series output. First, we present a method to select an optimal set of simulation sites that maximize the area represented for a given number of sites. Then, we introduce a multivariate matching approach to interpolate simulation results to detailed maps for the represented area. This approach links simulation output to environmentally analogous matched sites according to user-defined criteria. We demonstrate the methods with case studies using output from (1) an individual-based plant simulation model to illustrate site selection, and (2) an ecosystem water balance simulation model to illustrate interpolation. For the site selection case study, we identified 200 simulation sites that represented 96% of a large study area (1.12 × 106 km2) at a ~1-km resolution. For the interpolation case study, we generated ~1-km resolution maps across 4.38 × 106 km2 of drylands in North America from a 10 × 10 km grid of simulated sites. Estimates of interpolation errors using cross validation were low (<10% of the range of each variable). Our point selection and interpolation methods, which are available as an easy-to-use R package, provide a means of cost-effectively generating detailed maps of expensive, complex simulation output (e.g., multivariate and time series) at scales relevant for local conservation planning. Our methods are flexible and allow the user to identify relevant matching criteria to balance interpolation uncertainty with areal coverage to enhance inference and decision-making at management-relevant scales across large areas.
Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the “suppression bias” and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those from fuel accumulation or climate change alone, suggesting that suppression may exert a significant and underappreciated influence on patterns of fire globally. Managing wildfires to safely burn under low and moderate conditions is thus a critical tool to address the growing wildfire crisis.