The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework was developed by and for conservationists, resource managers, and climate change adaptation practitioners and scientists to foster strategic and collaborative thinking about responses to anthropogenic ecological change (Lynch et al., 2021; Schuurman et al., 2020, 2022; Thompson et al., 2021). Prevailing management approaches, which emphasize managing for ecosystem stationarity and maintaining historical ecological conditions or dynamics (e.g., Landres et al., 1999), are increasingly inadequate in this time of rapid, directional change (Jackson, 2021; Schuurman et al., 2022). Resisting anthropogenic environmental change has been the traditional approach in the resource management community. However, thinking beyond persistence alone is critical, given that preservation of all ecological components and processes in any given place will not be possible as the environment in which they developed transforms. This change in thinking constitutes a paradigm shift that calls for new tools and approaches, and the RAD framework is gaining traction in conservation and resource management agencies (e.g., the United States Department of the Interior [USDOI, 2021], the National Park Service [NPS, 2021, 2024], Australia's Parks Victoria Board [PVB, 2022], and South African National Parks [van Wilgen-Bredenkamp et al., 2024]). The RAD framework helps managers navigate transformative ecological change by defining a broad decision space that encompasses managing for persistence to managing for change and includes resisting (R) ecological trajectories moving away from historical or natural conditions; consciously accepting (A) such change; and directing (D) ecological trajectories toward preferred new conditions. By fostering deliberative thinking about options that include accepting and directing change, RAD is intended to help managers expand their thinking beyond traditional resistance approaches. By providing a structured way to consider a wide, even novel, set of options, RAD supports a necessary shift in perspective, helping managers respond to often-rapid ecological transformations. The RAD framework is also designed to promote collaboration and communication among diverse partners, stakeholders, and rights holders in planning and decision-making processes. The framework's simple, 3-part framing focuses on manager action and establishes a common, policy-neutral vocabulary that can foster joint or complementary actions across landscapes and jurisdictions and coherency in climate-informed goals (Magness et al., 2022; Schuurman et al., 2022; Ward et al., 2023). In sum, RAD is intended to be a simple framework that promotes exploration of a wider decision space while providing straightforward, intuitive concepts and vocabulary that foster interdisciplinary collaboration and communication in adaptation planning processes.

Project Overview Collaboration among scientists, managers, and members of the public is critical for developing effective science products that respond to society’s most pressing challenges. To continue these collaborative efforts, USGS recognizes that participatory sciences can be a powerful tool in engaging diverse groups in the process of collecting and interpreting scientific information, knowledge, and products. Researchers supported by this North Central CASC project will develop a guidebook for USGS scientists, supervisors, and leadership by utilizing collaboration across the USGS, as well as with federal, state, and local partners. This guidebook will provide opportunities for greater alignment of participatory science priorities, as well as create a framework to guide science planning and scientists’ efforts in a way that is responsive to the needs and priorities of future participatory sciences.   Project Summary Across USGS, scientists, managers, and members of the public are joining forces to develop critical 21st -century science products to respond to society’s greatest challenges. In doing so, USGS is increasingly recognizing the need to engage with the decision makers, individuals, and communities its science aims to serve through the use of participatory sciences. Broadly, participatory sciences actively engage the public in the process of collecting, generating, analyzing, and interpreting scientific information, knowledge, and products. Some efforts may be driven by the scientists at the USGS, while others may be driven by partners or communities. However, the increase in engagement of the public by USGS scientists is challenged by the lack of common language, and successful participatory science efforts remain disconnected across project teams, mission areas, and regions. To provide an opportunity for greater alignment, this project will develop a guidebook for USGS scientists, supervisors, and leadership by collaborating with staff from across USGS, as well as federal, state, and local partners. This will allow a greater understanding of the diverse types of participatory science that USGS scientists, programs, and regions are undertaking to work with and for the public, as well as the value they provide. Additionally, the collaboration will lead to the development of best practices for working with the public across USGS, grounded in past experiences, relevant literature, and input of subject matter experts. Finally, this project will create a framework for future projects to guide science planning and individual scientists’ efforts that is responsive to the needs and priorities of the specific participatory context.  

Wildlife diseases can have substantial impacts on wildlife populations as well as on human and domestic animal health and well-being. Although many agencies and stakeholders share a goal of supporting wildlife health, reducing wildlife disease burden is complicated by a scarcity of effective interventions for wildlife, competition for funds, and conflicting priorities. As a result, agencies are unlikely to avoid the impacts of wildlife diseases in all contexts and need to evaluate where resisting disease is most feasible and beneficial. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework is a tool that assists natural resource managers in exploring and communicating about management interventions, including in situations where resisting ecological changes may not be possible. In the present article, we discuss how the RAD framework could be adapted to wildlife disease contexts to address several outstanding challenges in wildlife health management.

In Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California, trees that have persisted through rain and shine for thousands of years are now facing multiple threats triggered by a changing climate. Scientists and park managers once thought giant sequoia forests nearly impervious to stressors like wildfire, drought and pests. Yet, even very large trees are proving vulnerable, particularly when those stressors are amplified by rising temperatures and increasing weather extremes. The rapid pace of climate change – combined with threats like the spread of invasive species and diseases – can affect ecosystems in ways that defy expectations based on past experiences. As a result, Western forests are transitioning to grasslands or shrublands after unprecedented wildfires. Woody plants are expanding into coastal wetlands. Coral reefs are being lost entirely. To protect these places, which are valued for their natural beauty and the benefits they provide for recreation, clean water and wildlife, forest and land managers increasingly must anticipate risks they have never seen before. And they must prepare for what those risks will mean for stewardship as ecosystems rapidly transform. As ecologists and a climate scientist, we’re helping them figure out how to do that.

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Both local environmental factors and historical biogeography shape ecological communities, but determining which historical biogeographical patterns correspond with contemporary climate vulnerability is an underused conservation method. The historical colonization patterns of freshwater fishes following the Pleistocene (“Ice Age”) glaciations offers an ideal model for comparing historical biogeography and climate-change vulnerability. 2. We used current thermal niches and future stream-temperature projections to estimate the climate vulnerability of 29 Great Plains and Rocky Mountain fishes that we classified as either early or late colonists of the region in the wake of glacial retreat (~19,000 years ago). Ninety-three percent of the most vulnerable species were amongst the earliest colonists of the region and we consider “postglacial-pioneer species”. Median predicted site loss (number of historically occupied sites predicted to become too warm by end-of-century) was 0% for late colonizing species and 33% for early colonizing species. 4. We provide empirical evidence that postglacial-pioneer fishes are uniquely vulnerable to climate change, and we suggest this may apply to many taxa from formerly glaciated regions. More broadly, we demonstrate that evaluating the relationship between current species-environment patterns and historical biogeography may be a fruitful avenue for future climate change and conservation research. 

In recent decades, substantial evidence has accumulated regarding the effects of climate change on the establishment, spread, and impact of invasive species. While the importance of incorporating climate change into invasive species management and policy is increasingly recognized, practitioner experiences and perspectives are often overlooked. Consequently, invasive species research may be misaligned with the needs of managers and the threats of climate change. Here, we compare survey responses from a boundary-spanning organization, the Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network, to identify common priorities and challenges in managing invasive species in a changing climate in the United States. Survey respondents reported that 22% of management and research time is dedicated to emerging invasive species threats. Common barriers to climate-informed invasive species management include limited time, funding, and personnel. Understanding how climate change may impact control strategies was consistently identified as a high priority for invasive species management, followed by identifying resilient ecosystems and range-shifting taxa. These results demonstrate the critical need for stronger researcher-practitioner networks and greater investment in research and policy topics that more closely align with management needs to address the interacting stressors of invasive species and climate change.

In a changing climate, resource management depends on anticipating changes and considering uncertainties. To facilitate effective decision making on public lands, we regionally summarized the magnitude and uncertainty of projected change in management-relevant climate variables for 332 national park units across the contiguous US. Temperature, frequency of extreme precipitation events, and drought exposure are all projected to increase within seven regions delineated in the US National Climate Assessment. In particular, the anticipated collective impacts of droughts and flooding events will lead to unique management challenges, including combinations of management actions that may seem inconsistent. Furthermore, uncertainty in the magnitude of change varied by region and climate variable considered, pointing to specific opportunities for prioritization, transferability, and innovation of climate adaptation regionally and at the park-unit scale.

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

Effects of a changing climate, including drought, wildfire, and invasive species encroachment, are evident on public lands across the United States. Decision making on Federal public lands requires analyses under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and there are guidelines for considering climate in NEPA analyses. To better understand how climate most recently has been considered, we analyzed a stratified random sample of 130 environmental assessments (EAs) completed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) from 2021 to 2023 across the contiguous United States. We assessed whether EAs considered (1) potential effects of the proposed action on climate (2) potential climate effects on the proposed action, and (3) potential climate effects on resources of concern. We also identified whether EAs included data and science about climate or greenhouse gas emissions, and which datasets and documents were cited. We used two approaches: automated keyword searches and document analysis. Thirty-seven percent of EAs considered the potential effects of the proposed action on climate, 8% considered the potential effects of climate on the proposed action, and 4% of individual resource analyses considered the potential effects of climate on the resource. EAs in the ‘oil and gas development,’ ‘renewable energy,’ and ‘forestry and timber management’ proposed action categories most frequently considered the potential effects of climate and used climate data and science. Our findings suggest an opportunity for scientists to work more closely with public land managers to identify available data and science for considering climate in environmental effects analyses and to provide science delivery mechanisms that can facilitate the consideration and use of climate science in decision making.