Soil organic carbon ("SOC") in drylands comprises nearly a third of the global SOC pool and has relatively rapid turnover and thus is a key driver of variability in the global carbon cycle. SOC is also a sensitive indicator of longer-term directional change and disturbance-responses of ecosystem C storage. Biome-scale disruption of the dryland carbon cycle by exotic annual grass invasions (mainly Bromus tectorum, "Cheatgrass") threatens carbon storage and corresponding benefits to soil hydrology and nutrient retention. Past studies on cheatgrass impacts mainly focused on total C, and of the few that evaluated SOC, none compared the very different fractions of SOC, such as relatively unstable particulate organic carbon (POC) or relatively stable, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC). We measured SOC and its POC and MAOC constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0-10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10-20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and 'secure', i.e. sequestered.  

The Low Flow Data and Model Discovery Table is a concise summary of data and model products that provide information on low-flow conditions in Montana, and which can be used for a range of water and land management decisions. The table was developed through a workshop series funded by the USGS North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center that included Federal, State, and Tribal participation. Descriptions of assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of the products as well as use examples are included for each product to provide context for how these data can be used for a variety of applications.

Scientific data concerning climate change are critical for designing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Equally important is how stakeholders perceive climate change because perceptions influence decision-making. In this paper, we employ spatially-delineated primary surveys to evaluate weather perception biases among corn and soybean farmers located on western frontier of the U.S. Corn Belt where substantial loss of grassland has been documented. We characterize farmers’ perception biases by measuring the gap between survey-based perception reports for three distinct weather indicators (i.e., temperature, precipitation and drought) and corresponding meteorological evidence. About 70% farmers in our sample misperceive past weather changes. Three-fourths of these misperceiving farmers over-estimate local temperatures and drought frequency and 40% of them under-estimate precipitation trends relative to past records. We further find evidence that farmers’ weather change perceptions are systematically biased in a manner that would justify past land use decisions. Particularly, higher cropping incidence on previously protected grasslands effected more farmers to under-perceive drier conditions and over-perceive wetter conditions. Our investigation of perception biases across distinct weather indicators with a reference to past economic decisions enriches the understanding of climate change perceptions and related policies.

Climate change is a primary threat to biodiversity, but for many species, we still lack information required to assess their relative vulnerability to changes. Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a widely used technique to rank relative vulnerability to climate change based on species characteristics, such as their distributions, habitat associations, environmental tolerances, and life-history traits. However, for species that we expect are vulnerable to climate change yet are understudied, like many amphibians, we often lack information required to construct CCVAs using existing methods. We used the CCVA framework to construct trait-based models based on life history theory, using empirical evidence of traits and distributions that reflected sensitivity of amphibians to environmental perturbation. We performed CCVAs for amphibians in 7 states in the north-central USA, focusing on 31 aquatic-breeding species listed as species of greatest conservation need by at least 1 state. Because detailed information on habitat requirements is unavailable for most amphibian species, we used species distributions and information on traits expected to influence vulnerability to a drying climate (e.g., clutch size and habitat breadth). We scored species vulnerability based on changes projected for mid-century (2040−2069) from 2 climate models representing “least-dry” and “most-dry” scenarios for the region. Species characteristics useful for discriminating vulnerability in our models included small range size, small clutch size, inflexible diel activity patterns, and smaller habitat breadth. When projected climate scenarios included a mix of drier and wetter conditions in the future, the exposure of a species to drying conditions was most important to relative rankings. When the scenario was universally drier, species characteristics were more important to relative rankings. Using information typically available even for understudied species and a range of climate projections, our results highlight the potential of using life history traits as indicators of relative climate vulnerability. The commonalities we identified provide a framework that can be used to assess other understudied species threatened by climate change.  

These data consist of three primary types of products for managers of boreal toads in the Southern Rocky Mountains: 1) Re-constructed hydroperiods for historical breeding sites from LANDSAT imagery from 1985-2022 (SMA_hydroperiod_reconstruction.csv). This dataset was developed using a Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). 2) Current (1985-2022) and future (2040-2069) predictions of probability of drying and surface area estimates for historical breeding sites (Current_hydrology_predictions.csv, Future_hydrology_predictions.csv). These datasets were developed using a Bayesian hurdle model with the surface water area estimate from the SMA as the response variable. 3) Current (1985-2020) and future (1955-1969) predictions of occupancy for boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) and the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) at three spatial scales; breeding site (Current_future_occ_prob_ind_site.csv), mountain range (Current_future_occ_prob_mtn_range.csv) and Southern Rocky Mountain Region (Current_future_occ_prob_SRM.csv). These datasets were developed from a Bayesian dynamic state-space community model.

Tribal resource managers in the southwest U.S. are facing a host of challenges related to environmental change, including increasing temperatures, longer periods of drought, and invasive species. These threats are exacerbating the existing challenges of managing complex ecosystems. In a rapidly changing environment, resource managers need powerful tools and the most complete information to make the most effective decisions possible. Located in southwest Colorado, the Ute Mountain Ute Tribal managers are experiencing these impacts firsthand which is why in 2019 they developed a climate adaptation plan. This project builds off the climate adaptation plan to connect managers at Ute Mountain Ute’s Environmental Department with data, tools, and information for making decisions about natural and cultural resources in the context of climate change. This project focused on 3 main objectives: 1) a workshop to plan for potential scenarios of climate change and the impact climate may have on their natural and cultural resource; 2) an invasive species mapping project to understand how invasive species are impacting a culturally and ecologically important area on the reservation; and 3) connecting art, students, and elders to the broader effort by the UMU Environmental Department to incorporate climate change into their decision making. The project team was successful in completing all three objectives, which empower managers at UMU to implement their climate adaptation plan and become more familiar with the suite of resources available to continue to navigate the impacts of climate change across their lands. The art component of the project is notable as it provides an exemplary process for producing culturally relevant products for a tribal community in a transparent and inclusive process.

Reducing uncertainty for decision-makers managing species in a rapidly changing climate requires knowledge of how species will respond to climate change and other threats while simultaneously developing management actions to reduce threats. Amphibians are one of the most threatened taxa on earth, and often serve as the “canary in the coalmine” for the health of ecosystems that countless other species and humans rely on. To address this for an imperiled amphibian species in the North Central region, the Boreal toad, we co-produced several products with the Boreal Toad Conservation Team to understand the status of the species and guide management. These products included 1) reconstructed seasonal hydrology patterns for historical Boreal toad breeding wetlands and high elevation watersheds in the Southern Rocky Mountain Region (SRMR) from remotely sensed data, 2) current and future predictions of drying rates for historical breeding wetlands, 3) current and future predictions on the status of the Boreal toad in the SRMR, and 3) a web tool to guide management actions. While the Boreal toad is considered a “data rich” species given data collection efforts that span multiple decades, many amphibian species are considered “data poor”, meaning managers lack data on the biology, ecology, or status of the species needed to make sound decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we also quantified drying patterns across watersheds for two “data poor” species in the North Central region at risk from climate change: the Great Basin spadefoot toad and the Wood frog. These new data can guide management decisions for these species by allowing managers to understand habitat changes with respect to water availability, a crucial element for amphibian survival and persistence. Together, these products demonstrate how cutting-edge technology and analytical methods can produce a range of useful information to support amphibian conservation.

This cooperator report contains 3 case studies produced by the North Central CASC to inform the State Wildlife Action Plan revision in North Dakota. The case studies included are: Case Study 1: Climate and land use changes are turning wetlands into large lakes, with consequences for ducks and North Dakota infrastructure Case Study 2: Managing Invasive Grasses in Native Temperate Prairies Case study 3: How will climate and land use change affect butterflies in the state of North Dakota?

As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing habitats, species, and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs isn’t required and capacity to do so is limited at most state agencies, resulting in varied consideration of climate change impacts. In support of the revisions to multiple State Wildlife Action Plans in the North Centra region, the North Central CASC is providing resources, synthesis, and case-studies to incorporate how climate change is relevant to wildlife and habitat conservation. The North Central CASC aims to provide concise information of available science describing how climate change is impacting state-specific species and habitats of concern, and the types of management actions that may support positive outcomes for wildlife and habitats.   For some states, case studies provide relatable and relevant examples of how management practices and priorities might consider both direct and indirect climate change impacts. Specifically, the project team is collaborating with state agencies in North Dakota, Colorado, and Wyoming to produce SWAP relevant products that will inform species and habitat management priorities and plans outlined within the State Wildlife Action Plan revisions. 

This is repository contains all publicly-released code and data supporting the Southern Rocky Mountains boreal toad decision support tool, which was developed as a part of a North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center-funded project entitled “A framework for guiding management decisions for amphibians in an uncertain future”, by Dr. Amanda M. Kissel (USGS), Dr. Erin Muths (USGS), Mae Lacey (Conservation Science Partners), Dr. Viorel Popescu (Columbia University), Dr. Marissa Dyck (University of Victoria), and Dr. Caitlin Littlefield (Conservation Science Partners). It contains scripts necessary for running the R shiny decision support tool/web app (SRM-boreal-toad-occupancy-tool-USGS). The complete version of this code and web app uses sensitive data that are not readily available to the public, and thus different versions of this application may present the included datasets at differing levels of detail depending on whether the publicly or privately available version is being viewed. Given that this version is public-facing, all sensitive datasets have been removed. Please contact the authors to request access to the private repository and web app.