Historical and projected suitable habitat of 33 tree and shrub species a under CCSM4 GCMs from 1980 to 2099 was predicted to assess projected climate change impacts in forest communities of North Central U.S. We obtained presence/absence record of each species from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. required ata. Historical tme period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. Random Forest was used to project historical and future suitable habitat of all species across north central U.S. using the Biomod2 software programmed in R environment. We adopted a climate change scenarios generated from the experiments conducted under fifth assessment of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Selected climate change scenarios include high representative concentrative pathway (RCP8.5).
The PROSPER output rasters represent the estimates of probability of annual streamflow permanence produced by the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, for years 1989 through 2021, in the upper Missouri River basin and parts of the Great Basin, Upper Colorado River basin, and Pacific Northwest hydrographic regions of the United States. The PROSPER model is a raster-based empirical model with outputs representing probabilistic predictions of an unregulated and minimally impaired stream channel in the study area having year-round flow. This region includes 4-digit Hydrologic Unit Code boundaries 1002-1013, 1015, 1018, 1019, 1404, 1405, 1601, and 1704,. The model provides predictions at a 10-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of basin climatic conditions and static physiographic variables upstream from a pixel cell along a stream network. Predictions are assigned to pixel cells on the channel network consistent with the high-resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Revision History First release: November 5, 2022 Revision ver. 2.0: July 26, 2024
We used a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape and future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the 90% largest fires, and area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. from 2020-2060
On December 5, 2023, Dr. Christy Miller Hesed (Regional Climate Adaptation Scientist, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center), in coordination with the Peabody Community Foundation, hosted a community conversation on flooding in Peabody, Kansas. This workshop brought together community leaders, business owners, pastors, agricultural producers, and residents who have experienced flooding of their homes or businesses to share perspectives on environmental change, learn about past and projected precipitation patterns and their implications for flooding, and discuss vulnerability and possible adaptations to flooding in Peabody. The workshop was held at the Peabody-Burns Elementary School. Flooding has been a perennial problem for Peabody, with implications for numerous businesses, residences, and the community as a whole. Projected environmental changes have the potential to exacerbate the consequences of flooding events. Opportunities for improvements in downtown Peabody are currently being pursued with leadership from the Peabody Community Foundation. In addition, some attempts have been made to explore opportunities for reducing the impacts of flooding on Peabody; however, the causes and possible solutions are so complex that flooding remains an unaddressed concern. The goal of the Peabody Community Conversation on Flooding was to bring community members together to develop ideas to inform future resilience to flooding.
As scientists across the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) respond to society’s greatest challenges with 21st century science, they are increasingly recognizing the need to engage with the decision makers, individuals, and communities their science aims to serve. To meet this challenge, USGS projects and programs have generated and utilized a variety of different models, frameworks, processes, and approaches for enabling this engagement through “participatory sciences” (PS). However, these efforts remain disparate, siloed, and ad hoc within project teams, mission areas, regions, or programs, resulting in a lack of access to or awareness of best practices and innovative efforts for scientists in different parts of the Bureau. Therefore, there is a need and an opportunity to synthesize the insights generated by teams working on this challenge across USGS to generate a widely applicable framework and set of resources to aid USGS scientists and programs interested in participatory sciences. In order to develop these resources, the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center is working with Seamus Land on a two-year project through the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Engineering. Seamus planned and hosted a workshop to collect input and perspectives in support of the research and development of a PS guidebook. The workshop was held May 5-7, 2025, at the Powell Center in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop gathered USGS staff and select partners in the Denver/Boulder/Fort Collins region, along with one USGS staff member from Oklahoma, to: Contribute feedback on draft USGS PS products, and Further develop understandings on effective PS by exploring partnerships both with and beyond USGS. Participants included scientists and professionals from the USGS North Central and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs), Office of Risk and Resilience in the USGS Natural Hazards Mission Area, Community for Data Integration in USGS Core Science Systems Mission Area, Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) in the National Park Service (NPS), River Watch, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Colorado State Government, and Division of Decision Support in the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). Across the three days, participants engaged with a variety of activities homing in on how to characterize PS and discussed existing frameworks that could provide structure to the USGS PS guidebook. The first day focused on USGS participants, the second day centered select local partners, and the final day provided space for the PS advisory committee to discuss successes, growth areas, and next steps.
Across the western United States, pinyon and juniper trees have been spreading into sagebrush and grassland ecosystems. This shift in vegetation affects how these lands are used and valued, especially for activities like livestock grazing and hunting. For decades, land managers have removed pinyon and juniper trees across large areas in an effort to restore native plant communities. What remains unclear is how effective these strategies are—particularly as the climate becomes hotter and drier in many parts of the West. Through this project, we developed a science-based decision-support tool based to help land managers determine where, when, and how to prioritize tree removal projects under future climate. To do this, we brought together resource managers and researchers through a series of workshops to co-create a range of management options for planning, implementing, and evaluating tree removal efforts in sagebrush and grassland ecosystems. The result is a set of adaptive management practices that incorporate future climate conditions and the environmental context of each treatment area—helping ensure more effective and resilient land management.
This is an annotated bibliography covering socioecological transformation in the sagebrush ecosystems of the North Central US region. It was compiled during the 2024 Rapid Climate Assessment Program (RCAP).
The goal of the Working Group Science Synthesis (WGSS) is to inform management for adapting to environmental change in the eastern sagebrush biome (Montana, Wyoming & Colorado). Overarching Theme: Synthesis and evaluation of management strategies and actions to maintain and restore sagebrush ecological integrity in the context of their effectiveness and social acceptance under a changing climate and other emerging stressors.