This report explains scenario planning as a climate change adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to Wind Cave National Park as the second part of a pilot project to dovetail climate change scenario planning with National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategy development. In the orientation phase, Park and regional NPS staff, other subject-matter experts, natural and cultural resource planners, and the climate change core team who led the scenario planning project identified priority resource management topics and associated climate sensitivities. Next, the climate change core team used this information to create a set of four divergent climate futures—summaries of relevant climate data from individual climate projections—to encompass the range of ways climate could change in coming decades in the park. Participants in the scenario planning workshop then developed climate futures into robust climate-resource scenarios that considered expert-elicited resource impacts and identified potential management responses. Finally, the scenario-based resource responses identified by park staff and subject matter experts were used to integrate climate-informed adaptations into resource stewardship goals and activities for the park's Resource Stewardship Strategy. This process of engaging resource managers in climate change scenario planning ensures that their management and planning decisions are informed by assessments of critical future climate uncertainties.

Near-surface remote sensing has been used to document seasonal growth patterns (i.e. phenology) for plant communities in diverse habitats. Phenology from this source may only apply to the area within the images. Meanwhile ecosystem models can accommodate variable weather and landscape differences to plant growth, but accuracy is improved by adding ground-truthed inputs. The objective of this study was to use PhenoCam data, image analysis, and Beer’s law with established extinction coefficients to compare leaf area index (LAI) development in the ALMANAC model for diverse plant types and environments. Results indicate that PhenoCam time series imagery can be used to improve leaf area development in ALMANAC by adjusting parameter values to better match LAI derived values in new diverse environments. Soybeans, mesquite, and maize produced the most successful match between the model simulations and PhenoCam data out of the eight species simulated. This study represents, to our knowledge, the first independent evaluation of the ALMANAC process-based plant growth model with imagery in agroecosystems available from the PhenoCam network. The results show how PhenoCam data can make a valuable contribution to validate process-based models, making these models much more realistic and allows for expansion of PhenoCam influence.