Post-fire shifts in vegetation composition will have broad ecological impacts. However, information characterizing post-fire recovery patterns and their drivers are lacking over large spatial extents. In this analysis we used Landsat imagery collected when snow cover (SCS) was present, in combination with growing season (GS) imagery, to distinguish evergreen vegetation from deciduous vegetation. We sought to (1) characterize patterns in the rate of post-fire, dual season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the region, (2) relate remotely sensed patterns to field-measured patterns of re-vegetation, and (3) identify seasonally-specific drivers of post-fire rates of NDVI recovery. Rates of post-fire NDVI recovery were calculated for both the GS and SCS for more than 12,500 burned points across the western United States. Points were partitioned into faster and slower rates of NDVI recovery using thresholds derived from field plot data (n=230) and their associated rates of NDVI recovery. We found plots with conifer saplings had significantly higher SCS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots without conifer saplings, while plots with ≥50% grass/forbs/shrubs cover had significantly higher GS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots with <50%. GS rates of NDVI recovery were best predicted by burn severity and anomalies in post-fire maximum temperature. SCS NDVI recovery rates were best explained by aridity and growing degree days. This study is the most extensive effort, to date, to track post-fire forest recovery across the western U.S. Isolating patterns and drivers of evergreen recovery from deciduous recovery will enable improved characterization of forest ecological condition across large spatial scales.

The NC CASC supports co-produced actionable science, data-intensive discovery, and open science to support tribal, federal, state, and local natural resource managers and decision-makers in the North Central region, which serves Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas and Nebraska. NC CASC is hosted by the University of Colorado Boulder (CU Boulder) within the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences , and is a partnership between CU Boulder, the U.S. Geological Survey, and five consortium partners: University of Montana; South Dakota State University; Conservation Science Partners; Wildlife Conservation Society; and Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance.   During the period of 2018 - 2023, the NC CASC consortium will strive to i) collaborate with resource managers to deliver usable climate science; ii) capitalize on the wealth of remote sensing and diverse big data to inform resource management decisions at relevant scales in the region; and iii) leverage open science work within and across the CASC-network to synthesize information on climate-sensitive wildlife, critical habitats, and cultural resources. These focal areas will help address key climate-sensitive management priorities in the region, including water availability and drought; habitat loss, connectivity and transformation; wildlife disease; invasives and encroachment; wildfire; and wildlife phenology.   NC CASC activities align with the center’s core goals: partnerships; science; capacity building; and communication/outreach. Trusted partnerships are at the foundation of all NC CASC activities, and include the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service’s Climate Change Response Program, and Tribal Colleges and Universities. Tribal Nations are unique and distinct partners. To better support and facilitate climate resilience in Tribal communities, the NC CASC partners with the Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance to host a regional Bureau of Indian Affairs Tribal Liaison. NC CASC science is use-inspired. Ongoing engagement between researchers and natural resource managers fosters a culture of collaboration and engagement. NC CASC Projects and Tools & Data are accessible online. Capacity building activities include leveraging the training capacity of CU Boulder’s Earth Lab, supporting a cohort of CASC-network Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral Fellows, and the launching of the NC CASC Tribal Climate Leaders Program that currently supports five Native American graduate fellows pursuing a graduate degree at CU Boulder in the area of climate adaptation science. Communication/Outreach activities include an NC CASC website, social media (Facebook and Twitter), a bi-monthly newsletter and a monthly webinar series. Each CASC is a formal collaboration between the USGS, a regional host university, and a multi-institution partner consortium. Through this agreement, the host and consortium institutions undertake a number of activities, including conducting research science projects, supporting fellows and engaging with resource management partners. To learn more about the work of the North Central CASC, visit: https://nccasc.colorado.edu/.

Tribal resource managers in the southwest U.S. are facing a host of challenges related to environmental change, including increasing temperatures, longer periods of drought, and invasive species. These threats are exacerbating the existing challenges of managing complex ecosystems. In a rapidly changing environment, resource managers need powerful tools and the most complete information to make the most effective decisions possible.   Traditional Ecological Knowledge has enabled Indigenous peoples to adaptively manage and thrive in diverse environments for thousands of years, yet it is generally underutilized and undervalued, particularly in the context of western scientific approaches. Traditional Ecological Knowledge and western science offer complementary insights and, together, can facilitate climate change adaptation. This project will use both methods of understanding the environment to provide tribal resource managers cutting edge information about what their environment looked like in the past to better understand it in the present and make more informed decisions for the future.   In particular, this project will work directly with Ute Mountain Ute decision-makers in using a combination of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and paleo-ecological records to explore past vegetation changes relevant to the stakeholder community. This work will then inform a forward-looking assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation options. Tribal youth will be involved in collecting information, and in developing and distributing outreach materials that summarize the work. By utilizing both Traditional Ecological Knowledge and western science techniques, this project will: 1) show how two different methods of understanding the environment can be utilized in a resource management context to assist with decision making, 2) establish how useful these methods are in tandem, and 3) provide southwest resource managers with better historic and holistic information to use in resource management decision making. 

The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most critical breeding habitats for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. This current conservation approach assumes that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions, however, due to changes in the area’s hydrology this may not be the case. Understanding how climate change may impact these wetland and grassland ecosystems is key for management agencies to set priorities for future conservation actions. The goal of this project is to co-produce novel information for land-management agencies to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. The researchers will use a mechanistic hydrology model with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service datasets that span multiple decades and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. By working directly with scientists and decision makers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, the team will ensure delivery of actionable science that can readily inform the agency about potential climate-driven impacts to breeding waterfowl pairs in currently monitored wetlands. This project will generate new, more robust predictions of the future status of the wetland ecosystem and waterfowl habitat of the Prairie Pothole Region.

Postfire shifts in vegetation composition will have broad ecological impacts. However, information characterizing postfire recovery patterns and their drivers are lacking over large spatial extents. In this analysis, we used Landsat imagery collected when snow cover (SCS) was present, in combination with growing season (GS) imagery, to distinguish evergreen vegetation from deciduous vegetation. We sought to (1) characterize patterns in the rate of postfire, dual‐season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the region, (2) relate remotely sensed patterns to field‐measured patterns of re‐vegetation, and (3) identify seasonally specific drivers of postfire rates of NDVI recovery. Rates of postfire NDVI recovery were calculated for both the GS and SCS for more than 12,500 burned points across the western United States. Points were partitioned into faster and slower rates of NDVI recovery using thresholds derived from field plot data (n = 230) and their associated rates of NDVI recovery. We found plots with conifer saplings had significantly higher SCS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots without conifer saplings, while plots with ≥50% grass/forbs/shrubs cover had significantly higher GS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots with <50%. GS rates of NDVI recovery were best predicted by burn severity and anomalies in postfire maximum temperature. SCS NDVI recovery rates were best explained by aridity and growing degree days. This study is the most extensive effort, to date, to track postfire forest recovery across the western United States. Isolating patterns and drivers of evergreen recovery from deciduous recovery will enable improved characterization of forest ecological condition across large spatial scales.

State Wildlife Action Plans are intended to provide proactive planning and guidance for the management of rare or imperiled species, including Species of Greatest Conservation Need. States must update their State Wildlife Action Plans every 10 years, but planners often lack the capacity or resources to integrate climate change into their planning. Revised State Wildlife Action Plans for most states in the North Central region are due by 2025. Providing support and building capacity for climate-informed State Wildlife Action Plans will be most useful now, before revisions are underway in most states. To increase the capacity for state wildlife agencies, this project will identify priority needs and provide support for states in the North Central region to integrate climate science and adaptation into their State Wildlife Action Plans. The research team will first engage with State Wildlife Action Plan staff to learn their priorities and needs for climate planning support. Then, based on these discussions, researchers will collaboratively develop a synthesis product designed to support several states in the region to better integrate climate adaptation strategies into their State Wildlife Action Plans. By co-developing a climate support product with states, we expect there will be better opportunities for shared learning, reduced time/cost for states, and increased capacity for states to integrate climate into their conservation plans.

Rangelands and pastures include grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and woodlands and are often maintained to support grazing animals. Rangelands and pastures cover more than one-third of the land area in the USA and a similar extent globally. The ecosystem goods and services associated with rangeland and pastureland include critical wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, amenities related to water conservation, sustainable soil functions, and soil stabilization and support a diversity of biota and livelihoods. This paper provides a framework for development of a socio-ecological system (SES)–oriented set of indicators for rangeland and pasture systems to support evaluation of impacts of climate and land use changes. These indicators will also serve to inform adaptive management practices. We present a rationale for using an SES approach to evaluate trends and vulnerabilities of rangeland and pasture systems and provide an example of a set of system indicators arising from the SES approach. The indicators include evaporative demand, land cover extent, aboveground plant biomass, human demographics (population age distribution), cattle numbers, and economic value of cattle products relative to total agricultural value. These indicators are not meant to be comprehensive but are offered to illustrate how they might be used in a SES approach to plan for, assess, and mitigate climate change impacts. The conceptual framework provides a systems perspective on the impact of climate change on the socio-ecological dynamics of rangeland and pasture systems including measures of the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem services with respect to the six indicators. The article focusses on livestock production in rangeland ecosystems, recognizing that additional work is needed to address pastures and other ecosystem services. Examples of the types of regional information associated with the indicators are provided. Guidance for future efforts in indicator development is offered. This framework will serve to guide future development of indicators for rangeland and pasture components of a larger national effort of indicators.

Accurate maps of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are critical for the development of effective land management policies, conducting risk assessments, and the mitigation of wildfire risk. Most WUI maps identify areas at risk from wildfire by overlaying coarse-scale housing data with land cover or vegetation data. However, it is unclear how well the current WUI mapping methods capture the patterns of building loss. We quantified the building loss in WUI disasters, and then compared how well census-based and point-based WUI maps captured the building loss. We examined the building loss in both WUI and non-WUI land-use types, and in relation to the core components of the United States Federal Register WUI definition: housing density, vegetation cover, and proximity to large patches of wildland vegetation. We used building location data from 70 large fires in the conterminous United States, which cumulatively destroyed 54,000 buildings from 2000 through to 2018. We found that: (1) 86% and 97% of the building loss occurred in areas designated as WUI using the census-based and point-based methods, respectively; (2) 95% and 100% of all of the losses occurred within 100 m and 850 m of wildland vegetation, respectively; and (3) WUI components were the most predictive of building loss when measured at fine scales

The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region plays a very important role in providing water and land resources and other critical ecosystem services to support rural livelihoods. Semi-arid conditions and the tight coupling of livelihood enterprises with ecosystem services increases sensitivity to climate change. The changing climate and social-economic situations across the NGP have further challenged current management practices. Recent climate stresses has indicated that changing seasonality and extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, ice storms) are impacting ecosystem services and increasing vulnerability to rural livelihoods. In particular, the emergence of rapid on-set of drought has been problematic to resource managers and operators due the shortened period to respond to these drought events. This paper provides a regional example for the North American Great Plains to illustrate how emerging climate impacts affect the ability to respond within the social-ecological system capabilities to manage for these impacts. This paper is a contribution to an international effort, the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme (Fu et al. this issue), to develop regional research and engagement efforts to further understand the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes and to enable this knowledge to guide further development of adaptive management options.