Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates the sensitivity of woody encroachment projections to climate change factors. Improved understanding of the effects of increasing CO2, climate change, and land management practices on potential woody encroachment will be used to guide management practices to be most effective in protecting grassland habitat in the NGP into the future.

Throughout western North America, warming associated with climate change is leading to both earlier spring peak streamflows and earlier seed dispersal, potentially reducing seedling establishment and in turn reducing the quality of riparian (near-river) forests, which provide critical habitat for diverse birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and insects, and food and shade for fish and other aquatic animals. This project aimed to predict these effects of climate change on cottonwood and willow tree regeneration in western forests by linking models of seed dispersal timing, streamflow hydrology, and seedling establishment, focusing on the upper South Platte River Basin as a study area. Results are expected to help land managers anticipate future changes in riparian wildlife habitat quality, and potentially to respond to these changes by actively re-vegetating high-priority areas, or by working with water management agencies to schedule dam releases that favor cottonwood and willow establishment.

Climate affects both the demographics of the Greater sage-grouse bird and the condition and long-term viability of their habitats, including sage-steppe communities. This project builds on collaboration among federal land managers, state wildlife biologists, scientists, and other organizations to create a long-term framework for implementing adaptive management for the sage-grouse. The study examined factors that might be limiting grouse numbers and will investigate components of weather patterns in relation to projected climate change models. Precipitation and temperature, as well as variables such as evaporation and soil moisture, will be considered. Overall, the project focused on (1) providing workshops to foster collaboration and interpretation of climate information, (2) developing a sage-steppe habitat map, and (3) suggesting recommendations for an adaptive management framework. 

Climate scientists need more and better information about the needs of decision-makers and managers, while decision-makers need better information about how a changing climate may affect their management and conservation objectives. The goal of this project was to build connections between the Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative (PPP-LCC), the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction and Projection Pilot Platform (NCPP) to facilitate a link between the users and producers of climate information, as well as to identify gaps between available and desired data. This project developed a conceptual model of the interactions between climate change, land use change, and conservation and adaptation in the Plains and Prairie Potholes (PPR) region of the North Central U.S. Relating climate variations to the prevailing land use and socioeconomic issues in the region helped to produce a framework enabling climate scientists to guide managers towards currently available and useful climate information and to design future research to address remaining key uncertainties affecting conservation decisions in the region.

With joint funding from the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and NASA's Earth Science Applied Sciences Program, the NC CSC supports resource managers and their decision process through its Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation and Mitigation Planning (ReVAMP), a collaborative research/planning effort supported by high performance computing and modeling resources. The NC CSC focuses primarily on climate data as input to the ReVAMP. In this project the NASA DEVELOP program was used to evaluate how remote sensing data sets can contribute to the ecological response models that are implemented in the ReVAMP system. This work demonstrates the utility of remote sensing in vulnerability assessment and ensures remote sensing data sets are fully embedded in the ReVAMP system. The use of remote sensing products helped to scale ground-based measurement collected on managed lands to larger regions more suitable for analysis against climate modeling grids. The NASA DEVELOP program covered the cost of six graduate students and the NC CSC covered 3 months of time dedicated to faculty advisors for the DEVELOP students.

The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities.   In order to understand the vulnerability of the region’s ecosystems to change, it is necessary to have reliable projections of future climate conditions. To address this need, researchers first examined past and present variations in climate and assessed the ability of climate models to effectively project future climate conditions for the region. Second, researchers used these climate models to project how the region’s water balance might change. This information was then used to understand potential future changes in ecosystems that are of interest to stakeholders. For example, researchers found that the increased probability of future drought in Iowa would threaten the state’s tallgrass prairies, as 28 plant species could experience a reduction in habitat suitability by 2040.   This research helps clarify the trajectory of past, present, and future changes in the region’s climate; identifies specific climate conditions associated with extreme events such as drought; and combines this knowledge to evaluate future conditions of ecosystems in the region. Together, this information can be used to support climate adaptation efforts in the North Central region.    

Determining which species, habitats, or ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change enables resource managers to better set priorities for conservation action. To address the need for information on vulnerability, this research project aimed to leverage the expertise of university partners to inform the North Central Climate Science Center on how to best assess the vulnerability of elements of biodiversity to climate and land use change in order to inform the development and implementation of management options. Outcomes from this activity were expected to include 1) a framework for modeling vegetation type and species response to climate and land use change, 2) an evaluation of existing alternative vegetation and species response models, and 3) a presentation of vulnerability assessments for managers for incorporation into climate adaptation strategies.

Managers already face uncertainty when making decisions about how to best manage natural resources. Now, climate change is adding an additional level of complexity to resource management decisions. Understanding the ability of human and ecological communities to adapt to changing conditions (known as their adaptive capacity) is an integral component of effective management planning in the face of climate change. So too is identifying ways in which managers can better incorporate information on climate and the vulnerability of resources into their decision-making.   This project sought to improve decision-making in the North Central region by developing an approach to managing natural resources that acknowledges the uncertainties that exist and incorporates the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of resources to climate change. To meet this goal, researchers assessed (1) the key factors that affect the ability of human and ecological communities to adapt to climate change; (2) the current vulnerability of communities to changing conditions; and (3) the current risk assessment methodologies being used by managers in the region. The results of this project can help improve natural resource management decisions under changing climate conditions.

In response to the potential impacts of climate and land use change to the Nation’s ecosystems, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) launched a series of Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) in 2010. The REAs are focused on improving our understanding of the current state of ecosystems and how conditions may be impacted by changes in climate, land use, and other stressors.   Researchers with the North Central CSC and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provided climate science support to the Wyoming Basin REA. The Wyoming Basin REA is a landscape-scale ecological assessment of over 33 million acres in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. This region has some of the highest quality wildlife habitat in the Intermountain West, and supports some of the largest U.S. populations of game species, including pronghorn, mule deer, elk, and bighorn sheep. The primary goal of the assessment was to identify potential risks and vulnerabilities of the region’s ecosystems and wildlife to change, to support management decision-making.   The climate analysis found that by 2030, temperatures in the region may rise by 2.5° Fahrenheit, and there will be more extreme hot days and fewer extreme cold days. It’s also expected that the snow accumulation season will start later in the fall, and that changing precipitation patterns will result in wetter winters and drier summers.   The results of this assessment can be used to identify priority areas for conservation or restoration of native plant and animal communities in the region, as well as to support broader landscape-scale decision-making related to all resources and public land uses.  

A central goal of the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) is to bring together the latest data, tools, and knowledge on the impacts of climate change to the hands of the region’s natural and cultural resource managers. To meet this goal, the NC CSC implemented three sub-projects which (1) organized a workshop aimed at developing an information technology framework for data integration related to climate change impacts on ecosystems and landscape conservation; (2) evaluated data and information exchange protocols and identified analytical needs; and (3) coordinated an assessment of the impacts of climate change across the Great Plains region, which contributed to the identification of potential adaptation strategies to deal with these effects.