The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon (C) stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can not only increase C uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance C release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity and size of wildfires. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species and their combined effects on regional C stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA (GYE) with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Total ecosystem C increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38%–69% with GCM climate. Differences in C uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper tree line, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27%–215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3°C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live C stocks by 4%–36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total C were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by C retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and C uptake. Synthesis. Forests in the GYE can maintain a C sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live above‐ground biomass and, ultimately, ecosystem C. Future changes in C stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.

In April 2020, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) held a workshop where WGFD managers could learn about the latest science on recent and future climate changes, and discuss the consequences of those changes for aquatic and terrestrial habitat management in the State. Focused on river, riparian, and wetland ecosystems, the workshop was designed to help managers consider the ways in which those habitats might be impacted by a changing climate, which types of watersheds and Wildlife Management Areas might be most vulnerable to climate change, and what management actions would be important to helping fish, wildlife, and plants cope with those impacts. Ultimately, results from the workshop were intended to inform and be incorporated into the 2020 revision of the Wyoming Statewide Habitat Plan.

This Statewide Habitat Plan (SHP) defines how the Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) will meet its mission of Conserving Wildlife - Serving People by working with external partners to conserve and improve habitat. Within the WGFD, the SHP provides a single, unified roadmap defining how several Director’s Office, Fish, Services, and Wildlife programs, with complementary and sometimes overlapping responsibilities, will work together to accomplish habitat protection and enhancement goals. 

This is a PDF of a PowerPoint slide deck that summarizes project findings.

Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. However, there is considerable local-to-regional heterogeneity in the observed and projected changes, driven by the historical and current patterns in fuel availability and flammability, the nature and interaction of climate changes and their effects on ecosystems, and the role of humans and natural-resource management practices in affecting those trajectories. In particular, changing fire regimes in pose numerous natural resource management challenges. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated components of a social-ecological-hydrological system with the potential for profound ecological transformation. To meet this need, we propose to conduct a synthetic research assessment of changing fire dynamics and to relate these changes to natural resource management. Through this project, we will engage a post-doctoral fellow to lead this research, and will conduct an assessment of: 1) the state of the science on how climate change is currently affecting and projected to transform fire processes; 2) how projected changes fit within the context of national patterns and trends; 3) the implications of these changes for natural resource management and climate change adaptation efforts. Products will include one or more peer reviewed manuscript(s) on the regional findings; one or more peer reviewed manuscripts placing these regional findings in a broader national context; and public facing documents and/or communication activities (e.g., webinars) to engage managers with the results of this work.

These data represent key phenology trends across the western United States from 1982-2016. Using two remote sensing datasets, CMGLSP and VIPPHEN-EVI2, trends were calculated for four phenology variables: Start of Season (SOS), Peak Instantaneous Rate of Green-Up Date (PIRGd), Peak of Season (POS), and End of Season (EOS). The Theil-Sen slope and standard deviation were applied to the phenology metrics to evaluate how phenology dates and variation in those dates have changed through time. The Mann-Kendall test was also applied to give an indication of trend significance. Lastly, we include the mean and standard deviation of each metric across the time period.

The NC CASC has conducted numerous training and skills development activities to support partners and researchers as they seek to use scientific information and techniques to understand and respond to climate change impacts. Training topics range from basics of climate data integration (climate 101) to more specific topics like climate training activities for Tribes and Indigenous Communities and training videos on climate projection tools like the Climate Futures Toolbox. To learn more about upcoming training events, check NCCASC website for events regularlly and sign up for the NCCASC newsletter for announcements.

The Climate Science Support Platform is a network of NC CASC scientists and partners that provides climate science support to the NC CASC community of scientists and stakeholders through collaborative research and integration of diverse science expertise. In an effort to increase understanding of climate science and to identify stakeholders’ climate science needs, the Climate Science Support Platform facilitates iterative engagement with the NC CASC community of scientists and stakeholders through direct interactions, science calls to engage with the entire network, and science webinars that bring together researchers and managers. In addition to engaging with stakeholders, the Climate Science Support Platform also works to produce information and tools to address stakeholder needs. Specific initiatives include 1) developing and providing downscaled climate data, 2) synthesizing project specific climate information (e.g. US FWS species assessments), 3) developing workflows to access climate data (e.g., the Climate Futures Toolbox), and 4) developing resource briefs and regional summaries. The Climate Science Support Platform is also doing foundational and applied research in understanding ecological drought processes and risk under a changing climate. For more information on activities conducted through the CSSP, please check the CSSP webpage.

The NC CASC works to communicate the science conducted at the center out to the North Central region through a variety of communication resources such as state specific fact sheets, newsletters, social media and webinars. These communication products aim to connect researchers, managers, and practitioners to usable science, success stories, and solutions for natural and cultural resource management and adaptation under a changing climate. More specifically, the webinar series focuses on ongoing research and practices from the NC CASC network, and feature topics of critical importance to natural resource managers and other stakeholders within the region. To learn more about NC CASC communications, please visit the Communications Tools webpage.