North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center

Watch the Latest Tribal Webinar

Watch the latest tribal webinar, "Tribal Drought Conditions and Actions in the North Central," which discusses the updates and projections on drought conditions in the Missouri River Basin focused on Tribal lands.

New Paper Published on "Campfire Conversations" at Society for Range Management Annual Meeting

A new paper was published that discusses the lessons learned from the Campfire Conversations at the 2020 Annual Meeting for the Society for Range Management.

May 2021 Webinar Slides

When

Presented by: Owen McKenna, Research Ecologist, USGS NPWRC; Ned Wright, Wildlife Biologist, USFWS HAPET Abstract: The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. A major assumption inherent to the current conservation approach is that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions. Our goal with this interagency collaboration is to co-produce useable information to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. We are using a mechanistic hydrology model in combination with multi-decadal monitoring data and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. About the speakers: Dr. Owen McKenna is a Research Ecologist at Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in Jamestown, ND. Dr. McKenna holds a Ph.D. in Environmental Life Sciences at Arizona State University. His research is focused on studying how changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology and geochemistry of prairie-pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna has explored a regional climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems through analysis of long-term data. He also helped in development and application of the Pothole Hydrology Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS), which is an integrated hydro-geochemical model for prairie pothole wetlands. Dr. McKenna is currently using PHyLiSS to assist land managers in estimating the future impacts of climate and land-use change on critical migratory waterfowl habitat. Ned Wright is a Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck, ND. Mr. Wright holds a B.S. in Conservation Biology from University of Wisconsin Madison. He oversees the coordination of long-term study of waterfowl populations in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. This survey is recognized as the primary method to monitor the abundance and distribution of breeding waterfowl by the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.

NC CASC Webinar Series: "Integrating Climate Change Projections with Breeding Waterfowl Habitat Models"

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat.

NC CASC Tribal Outreach Featured in CIRES "Spheres" Magazine

The NC CASC's Tribal Climate Leaders Program (TCLP) was featured in the 2021 Edition of CIRES annual magazine, "Spheres."

Read New Publications on Great Plains and Sagebrush-Steppe Communities

Three new papers, all funded by the NC CASC, are published and available online.

Join NC3 for Upcoming Climate Change Virtual Conference

Join the North Central Climate Collaborative (NC3) for their upcoming virtual conference, Advanced Climate Change Topics: North Central Climate 201 from June 8th-10th.

The enemy release hypothesis proposes that invasion by exotic plant species is driven by their release from natural enemies (i.e. herbivores and pathogens) in their introduced ranges. However, in many cases, natural enemies, which may be introduced or managed to regulate invasive species, may fail to impact target host populations. Landscape heterogeneity, which can affect both the population dynamics of the pathogen and the susceptibility and the density of hosts, may contribute to why pathogens fail to control hosts despite established negative disease impacts. We explored patterns of post‐fire infection of the fungal head‐smut pathogen Ustilago bullata on the invasive annual cheatgrass Bromus tectorum, which has caused the notorious grass‐fire cycle and ecosystem degradation across Western North America. We asked whether infection level was a driver of host density or vice‐versa, and how weather affected infection and how spatial patterns of infection varied with time since fire, using a combination of structural equation modelling (SEM), proportional odds modelling and entropy‐based local indicator of spatial association (ELSA) on data from >700 plots spanning >100,000 ha remeasured annually for 4 years. Observed infection levels increased with greater prior‐year cheatgrass cover, and disease severity did not suppress cheatgrass populations. Warm, humid fall/winters and proximity to fire refugia (unburned patches) were associated with more infections. Infection clustering was most evident 2–3 years following fire with warm‐wet fall–winter conditions and decreased after two drier, colder winters. Synthesis. Severity of fungal disease did not result in measurable reductions of populations of a non‐native, invasive host species, cheatgrass, which suggests that natural enemies may not strongly regulate cheatgrass in its introduced range. Landscape heterogeneity associated with disturbance and weather limited population‐level infection of hosts by the fungal pathogen. Disturbance (specifically wildfire) and variable weather are key components of this and similar invasion systems, and likely need to be considered when evaluating disease dynamics and potential for natural enemies to influence invasion potential.