The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most critical breeding habitats for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. This current conservation approach assumes that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions, however, due to changes in the area’s hydrology this may not be the case. Understanding how climate change may impact these wetland and grassland ecosystems is key for management agencies to set priorities for future conservation actions. The goal of this project is to co-produce novel information for land-management agencies to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region. The researchers will use a mechanistic hydrology model with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service datasets that span multiple decades and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. By working directly with scientists and decision makers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, the team will ensure delivery of actionable science that can readily inform the agency about potential climate-driven impacts to breeding waterfowl pairs in currently monitored wetlands. This project will generate new, more robust predictions of the future status of the wetland ecosystem and waterfowl habitat of the Prairie Pothole Region.
Postfire shifts in vegetation composition will have broad ecological impacts. However, information characterizing postfire recovery patterns and their drivers are lacking over large spatial extents. In this analysis, we used Landsat imagery collected when snow cover (SCS) was present, in combination with growing season (GS) imagery, to distinguish evergreen vegetation from deciduous vegetation. We sought to (1) characterize patterns in the rate of postfire, dual‐season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the region, (2) relate remotely sensed patterns to field‐measured patterns of re‐vegetation, and (3) identify seasonally specific drivers of postfire rates of NDVI recovery. Rates of postfire NDVI recovery were calculated for both the GS and SCS for more than 12,500 burned points across the western United States. Points were partitioned into faster and slower rates of NDVI recovery using thresholds derived from field plot data (n = 230) and their associated rates of NDVI recovery. We found plots with conifer saplings had significantly higher SCS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots without conifer saplings, while plots with ≥50% grass/forbs/shrubs cover had significantly higher GS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots with <50%. GS rates of NDVI recovery were best predicted by burn severity and anomalies in postfire maximum temperature. SCS NDVI recovery rates were best explained by aridity and growing degree days. This study is the most extensive effort, to date, to track postfire forest recovery across the western United States. Isolating patterns and drivers of evergreen recovery from deciduous recovery will enable improved characterization of forest ecological condition across large spatial scales.
State Wildlife Action Plans are intended to provide proactive planning and guidance for the management of rare or imperiled species, including Species of Greatest Conservation Need. States must update their State Wildlife Action Plans every 10 years, but planners often lack the capacity or resources to integrate climate change into their planning. Revised State Wildlife Action Plans for most states in the North Central region are due by 2025. Providing support and building capacity for climate-informed State Wildlife Action Plans will be most useful now, before revisions are underway in most states. To increase the capacity for state wildlife agencies, this project will identify priority needs and provide support for states in the North Central region to integrate climate science and adaptation into their State Wildlife Action Plans. The research team will first engage with State Wildlife Action Plan staff to learn their priorities and needs for climate planning support. Then, based on these discussions, researchers will collaboratively develop a synthesis product designed to support several states in the region to better integrate climate adaptation strategies into their State Wildlife Action Plans. By co-developing a climate support product with states, we expect there will be better opportunities for shared learning, reduced time/cost for states, and increased capacity for states to integrate climate into their conservation plans.
Rangelands and pastures include grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and woodlands and are often maintained to support grazing animals. Rangelands and pastures cover more than one-third of the land area in the USA and a similar extent globally. The ecosystem goods and services associated with rangeland and pastureland include critical wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, amenities related to water conservation, sustainable soil functions, and soil stabilization and support a diversity of biota and livelihoods. This paper provides a framework for development of a socio-ecological system (SES)–oriented set of indicators for rangeland and pasture systems to support evaluation of impacts of climate and land use changes. These indicators will also serve to inform adaptive management practices. We present a rationale for using an SES approach to evaluate trends and vulnerabilities of rangeland and pasture systems and provide an example of a set of system indicators arising from the SES approach. The indicators include evaporative demand, land cover extent, aboveground plant biomass, human demographics (population age distribution), cattle numbers, and economic value of cattle products relative to total agricultural value. These indicators are not meant to be comprehensive but are offered to illustrate how they might be used in a SES approach to plan for, assess, and mitigate climate change impacts. The conceptual framework provides a systems perspective on the impact of climate change on the socio-ecological dynamics of rangeland and pasture systems including measures of the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem services with respect to the six indicators. The article focusses on livestock production in rangeland ecosystems, recognizing that additional work is needed to address pastures and other ecosystem services. Examples of the types of regional information associated with the indicators are provided. Guidance for future efforts in indicator development is offered. This framework will serve to guide future development of indicators for rangeland and pasture components of a larger national effort of indicators.
Accurate maps of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are critical for the development of effective land management policies, conducting risk assessments, and the mitigation of wildfire risk. Most WUI maps identify areas at risk from wildfire by overlaying coarse-scale housing data with land cover or vegetation data. However, it is unclear how well the current WUI mapping methods capture the patterns of building loss. We quantified the building loss in WUI disasters, and then compared how well census-based and point-based WUI maps captured the building loss. We examined the building loss in both WUI and non-WUI land-use types, and in relation to the core components of the United States Federal Register WUI definition: housing density, vegetation cover, and proximity to large patches of wildland vegetation. We used building location data from 70 large fires in the conterminous United States, which cumulatively destroyed 54,000 buildings from 2000 through to 2018. We found that: (1) 86% and 97% of the building loss occurred in areas designated as WUI using the census-based and point-based methods, respectively; (2) 95% and 100% of all of the losses occurred within 100 m and 850 m of wildland vegetation, respectively; and (3) WUI components were the most predictive of building loss when measured at fine scales
The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region plays a very important role in providing water and land resources and other critical ecosystem services to support rural livelihoods. Semi-arid conditions and the tight coupling of livelihood enterprises with ecosystem services increases sensitivity to climate change. The changing climate and social-economic situations across the NGP have further challenged current management practices. Recent climate stresses has indicated that changing seasonality and extreme events (e.g., droughts, floods, ice storms) are impacting ecosystem services and increasing vulnerability to rural livelihoods. In particular, the emergence of rapid on-set of drought has been problematic to resource managers and operators due the shortened period to respond to these drought events. This paper provides a regional example for the North American Great Plains to illustrate how emerging climate impacts affect the ability to respond within the social-ecological system capabilities to manage for these impacts. This paper is a contribution to an international effort, the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme (Fu et al. this issue), to develop regional research and engagement efforts to further understand the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes and to enable this knowledge to guide further development of adaptive management options.
As pressures from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, like invasive species, increase, new challenges arise for natural resource managers who are responsible for the health of public lands. One of the greatest challenges these managers face is that the traditional way of managing resources might not be as effective, or in some cases might be ineffective, in light of transformational ecological impacts that exist at the intersection of society and ecosystems. Thus, managers are struggling to understand how they should be managing shared natural resources and landscapes in this new era. This project studies the decision-making process of federal land managers to illuminate how decisions are being navigated and what strategies managers are developing to address challenges. To examine this issue, the project will use a comparative case study design focused on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska and the East Jemez Landscape in New Mexico, both of which are experiencing transformational ecological change and related management challenges. The project uses semi-structured interviews with natural resource managers from both case study sites to identify important factors shaping manager decision making and to explain factors that differ between them. For instance, how are managers’ choice of strategies influenced by the agency to which they belong? This research will contribute to a new climate adaptation and conservation knowledge base and offer information about how decisions are currently being made on public lands. The findings will help support public land management and conservation efforts and inform researchers as to what type of science would be most usable for managers tackling ecological transformation.
Wildlife aggregation patterns can influence disease transmission. However, limited research evaluates the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on aggregation. Many managers would like to reduce wildlife contact rates, driven by aggregation, to limit disease transmission. We develop a novel analytical framework to quantify how management activities such as supplemental feeding and hunting versus weather drive contact rates while accounting for correlated contacts. We apply the framework to the National Elk Refuge (NER), Wyoming, USA, where the probable arrival of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has magnified concerns. We used a daily proximity index to measure contact rates among 68 global positioning system collared elk from 2016 to 2019. We modelled contact rates as a function of abiotic weather‐related effects, anthropogenic effects and aggregation from the prior day. The winter of 2017–2018 had greater natural forage availability and little snow, which led to a rare non‐feeding year on the NER and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of feeding on contact rates relative to other conditions. Supplemental feeding was the strongest predictor of aggregation, and contact rates were 2.6 times larger while feeding occurred compared to the baseline rate (0.34 and 0.13, respectively). Snow‐covered area was the second strongest predictor of contact rates highlighting the importance of abiotic factors to elk aggregation, but this effect had half the strength of feeding. These results are the first to show, even in animals that congregate naturally, how greatly supplemental feeding amplifies aggregation. Contact rates were also 23% lower during times when elk hunting was active (0.10) compared to the baseline. Synthesis and applications. Supplemental feeding increased contacts between elk well above the natural effects of weather, even after accounting for correlated movement expected in wintering ungulates. Similarly, differences in hunting season timing with adjacent areas led to an increase in contacts, suggesting an additional management option for reducing aggregation. The analytical framework presented supports the evaluation of temporally varying management actions that influence aggregation broadly and can be easily implemented whether the interest in changing aggregation is related to reduction of disease transmission, human–wildlife conflict or inter‐species competition.
The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon (C) stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can not only increase C uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance C release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity and size of wildfires. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species and their combined effects on regional C stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA (GYE) with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Total ecosystem C increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38%–69% with GCM climate. Differences in C uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper tree line, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27%–215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3°C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live C stocks by 4%–36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total C were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by C retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and C uptake. Synthesis. Forests in the GYE can maintain a C sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live above‐ground biomass and, ultimately, ecosystem C. Future changes in C stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.