Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0121.1): Much of the academic literature and policy discussions about sustainable development and climate change adaptation focus on poor and developing nations, yet many tribal communities inside the United States include marginalized peoples and developing nations who face structural barriers to effectively adapt to climate change. There is a need to critically examine diverse climate change risks for indigenous peoples in the United States and the many structural barriers that limit their ability to adapt to climate change. This paper uses a sustainable climate adaptation framework to outline the context and the relationships of power and authority, along with different ways of knowing and meaning, to illustrate the underpinnings of some tribes’ barriers to sustainable climate adaptation. The background of those structural barriers for tribes is traced, and then the case of water rights and management at the Wind River Reservation in Wyoming is used to illustrate the interplay of policy, culture, climate, justice, and limits to adaptation. Included is a discussion about how the rulings of the Big Horn general stream adjudication have hindered tribal climate change adaptation by limiting the quantity of tribal reserved water rights, tying those rights to the sole purposes of agriculture, which undermines social and cultural connections to the land and water, and failing to recognizing tribal rights to groundwater. Future climate projections suggest increasing temperatures, and changes in the amount and timing of snowpack, along with receding glaciers, all of which impact water availability downstream. Therefore, building capacity to take control of land and water resources and preparing for climate change and drought at Wind River Reservation is of critical importance.

Pan evaporation is a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand (E0) for which long term and spatially distributed observations are available from the NOAA Cooperative Observer (COOP) Network. However, this data requires extensive quality control and homogenization due to documented and undocumented station moves and other factors including human errors in recording or digitization. Station-based Pan Evaporation measurements (in mm) from 247 stations across the continental United States were compiled and quality controlled for the analysis shown in Dewes et al., 2017. This dataset reports warm season (May-October; for 21 stations the data is only available for May-September) pan evaporation with at least 20 years of data between 1950 and 2001. Both monthly values and long-term monthly averages are made available, including the climatological measure for standard deviation and coefficient of variation. Dewes et al. (2017) used this dataset to evaluate the ability of different E0 formulations – Hargreaves-Samani, Priestly-Taylor, and Penman-Monteith – to reproduce the spatial patterns of observed warm-season E0 and its interannual variability. This data is an extension of the dataset described in Hobbins (2004) and Hobbins et al. (2004) with 21 additional stations north of 41oN latitude. The extension was needed in order to include data in the North Central Climate Science Center region. For these added stations, the procedure described in Hobbins (2004) for quality control was applied, including an adjustment in the mean when documented station moves occurred, and the removal of obvious outliers. The quality control procedure for the extended dataset did not automate tests for undocumented inhomogeneities for these stations. For all stations, a visual inspection of the timeseries was used to add additional breakpoints in the data for homogenization (only two were added in the extended set), and to eliminate two stations from consideration.

Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096317300153): In recent years, federal land management agencies in the United States have been tasked to consider climate change vulnerability and adaptation in their planning. Ecological vulnerability approaches have been the dominant framework, but these approaches have significant limitations for fully understanding vulnerability in complex social-ecological systems in and around multiple-use public lands. In this paper, we describe the context of United States federal public lands management with an emphasis on the Bureau of Land Management to highlight this unique decision-making context. We then assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ecological vulnerability approach for informing decision-making. Next, we review social vulnerability methods in the context of public lands to demonstrate what these approaches can contribute to our understanding of vulnerability, as well as their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we suggest some key design principles for integrated social-ecological vulnerability assessments considering the context of public lands management, the limits of ecological vulnerability assessment, and existing approaches to social vulnerability assessment. We argue for the necessity of including social vulnerability in a more integrated social-ecological approach in order to better inform climate change adaptation.

In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions.   This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern Colorado: Phase 1”. Phase 1 focused on developing integrated social-ecological science and adaptation strategies for four target landscapes: spruce-fir forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, sagebrush scrublands, and seeps, springs and wetlands.   Phase 2 will further advance adaptation strategy development in the region and share the results with other communities, land managers, and decision-makers. Specifically, researchers will identify concrete actions that can be taken to carry out each adaptation strategy, and will develop solutions to address barriers identified by stakeholders in Phase 1 that could impede implementation. Ultimately, this project will result in landscape-scale conservation goals and actions that conserve key species, ecosystems, and resources, address the economic and social systems of local communities, and provide science resources for natural resource managers in the face of a changing climate.

The goal of this project was to identify climate-related scientific information needs in the North Central region that will support the management of key species and help avoid species declines. Researchers worked closely with state fish and wildlife agencies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, tribes, and other relevant natural resource management and conservation agencies to identify priority information needs and to design and implement studies that will address these needs.   Researchers identified stakeholders, including those engaged by the North Central Climate Science Center USGS Liaisons project. Researchers worked with stakeholders to identify priority conservation targets. Selected targets were those that are of high priority to managers, are the subject of a pending or planned decision or action, and for which the decision would benefit from information on climate change exposure, impacts, or adaptation. The outcome was the identification of key climate science needs that can help advance near-term conservation decision-making. As a final component of the project, researchers initiated working groups to spearhead the development of research plans that can address these priority, stakeholder-defined climate science needs in the region. These working groups were comprised of management representatives and researchers affiliated with the North Central Climate Science Center.   By working closely with resource managers to identify information gaps and initiate plans to address these gaps, this project was designed to support the development of usable, relevant, and timely science that directly addresses on-the-ground needs.

Researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center have made substantial progress in assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on wildlife and ecosystems across the region. Building on this progress, researchers will work with stakeholders to identify adaptation strategies and inform resource management in the areas that will be most affected by changing conditions.   There are several components of this project. First, researchers will use the Department of Interior “resource briefs” as a mechanism to communicate information to resource managers on climate and land use change and their impacts to resources. These briefs will support coordinated management of ecosystems that contain public, private, and tribal lands. Researchers will also inform the development of a multi-state management plan for wolverine, a species being considered for listing, by providing forecasts of how wolverine habitat might change as climate conditions and land use change. Finally, researchers will work with federal and private resource managers in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and High Divide regions to develop management guidelines under different possible future climate conditions. This project will support resource managers throughout the North Central region in understanding how conditions might change and identifying potential climate adaptation strategies.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Ecological Impacts Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.

In the North Central U.S., the rate and extent of changing climate conditions has been increasing in recent decades. These changes include shifting precipitation patterns, warming temperatures, and more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and floods. As these changes occur, managers face different challenges and have different needs, depending on the resources they manage. For example, water managers are focused on responding to changes in water availability, while wildlife managers may be more concerned with changing habitat conditions – whether it be for migratory waterfowl, coldwater fish, or large mammals.   In the face of these changes, managers are seeking effective strategies for managing resources. To meet this goal, managers require usable and timely information that is relevant to current needs – known as “actionable science”. The goal of this project is to identify best practices for developing actionable science results, which are often built around strong stakeholder engagement. Researchers will evaluate the different processes – including mechanisms of stakeholder engagement – that have been employed by the North Central Climate Science Center to provide managers with actionable science that supports climate adaptation planning. By identifying best practices for stakeholder engagement, this project will support the North Central CSC’s mission to ensure that their science directly addresses on-the-ground management needs.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Adaptation Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.  

In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning.   To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during the 21st century; (2) work with stakeholders to provide climate data that can be used to assess climate impacts; (3) improve the usability of an existing drought early warning and monitoring tool known as the Evaporative Drought Demand Index; and (4) develop a new drought monitoring tool to provide better information about moisture availability in soils. Researchers aim to continue to develop and provide information on potential future climate conditions for specific areas that are of interest to stakeholders, in order to understand potential impacts and develop adaptation strategies.   This project team is part of the North Central Climate Science Center’s Climate Drivers Foundational Science Area Team, which supports foundational research and advice, guidance, and technical assistance to other NC CSC projects as they address climate science challenges that are important for land managers and ecologists in the region.