From Public Summary: (One of the greatest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as climate change scenario planning, in which data from climate models are used to identify different plausible future climate conditions and their impacts, known as “scenarios,” for a specific area.   In a previous project, we (scientists with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, and National Park Service) worked with natural resource managers at Badlands National Park and on surrounding federal and tribal lands to assess how different climate conditions and management activities would affect the area’s resources. To make the results of this work more accessible to managers and the public, the present project produced a National Park Service “Resource Brief” summarizing insights from a scenario planning workshop and an ecological simulation model built specifically for the focus area. The Brief highlights actions that the park can take to address resource management challenges associated with the range of plausible climate futures.   Building on the work at Badlands, we also designed and pilot-tested a process for deeply integrating climate change scenario planning into National Park Service (NPS) Resource Stewardship Strategies. These strategies are part of NPS’s streamlined approach for guiding prioritization of a park’s investments in resource stewardship. The process we designed helped managers at the case study park – Devils Tower National Monument – adjust their resource management goals to be achievable across the range of plausible climate futures, and to prioritize activities that will prepare the park for whatever future climate materializes.   We then documented this integration process as a supplement to standard Resource Stewardship Strategy preparation guidance followed by each park as it develops its Strategy. This allows the lessons learned in this case study to be applied to many other parks across the nation.)  

Abstract From: (The growth and distribution of plant species in water limited environments is often limited by the atmospheric evaporative demands which us measured in terms of potential evaporation (PET). While PET estimated by different methods have been widely used to assess vegetation response to climate change, species distribution models offer unique opportunity to compare their efficiency in predicting habitat suitability of plant species. In this study, we perform the first multi-species comparison of two widely used metrics of PET i.e., Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite, and show how they result in similar or different on projected distribution of water limited species and potential consequences on their conservation strategies across North Central U.S. To build species distribution models of eight species, we used two sets of environmental predictors which were identical except for the metric of PET (Penman-Monthith vs Thornthwaite) and projected habitat suitability for historical (2005) and future (0399) periods. We found an excellent model performance with no difference under two sets of predictors (AUC + ~0.93). The relative influence of Thornthwaite PET on habitat prediction was higher than Penman PET for most of the species. We observered that the area of the projected suitable habitat was always higher under Thornthwaite set of predictors which were than Penman set of predictors (ranges from 25% to 941%), with the exception of Pinus contorta for which the reverse was true. In most cases, these differences were non-trivial, indicating that the choice of the PET metric, although both of them are commonly used, can have dramatic consequences on the conservation management decisions. Therefore, the conservation management decisions can be markedly different depending on the choice of the PET metric used for species distribution modeling of water limited species.)

The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and other components of a formerly contiguous Great Plains landscape. Management of bison in IR5 parks has historically been specific to each park, and livestock and range management science informed much of the decision making. In the past two decades, NPS has shifted away from managing bison from this livestock-based perspective towards a wildlife stewardship approach, including ensuring their long-term adaptive potential and considering them as just one part of a complex ecosystem. This shift requires a more holistic and cooperative approach to stewardship that is challenging not only because of limitations in funding and fluctuations in leadership priorities, but also because of the constraints imposed by the parks’ relatively small, fenced areas. The IR5 NPS Bison Stewardship Strategy (“Strategy”) will help the NPS to meet its responsibilities in cooperative stewardship of bison. The Strategy will serve to organize and consolidate the NPS’s legal and policy responsibilities within a framework of collectively defined values and objectives to support the careful and transparent decision-making processes that both guide and transcend parkspecific planning. This report describes a preliminary decision framework for the Strategy, including the context, the fundamental objectives, and a range of alternative strategies developed and considered through two workshops and a series of conference calls with NPS personnel, stakeholders, and outside experts with an interest in IR5 NPS bison stewardship. Although not the Strategy itself, this framework serves as the Strategy’s starting point and identifies 14 fundamental objectives, falling in four major themes: Persistence of Wild and Healthy Bison 1. Maximize the long-term persistence of bison in IR5 parks 2. Maximize the long-term adaptive capacity of bison in North America 3. Maximize the wildness of the bison herds 4. Maximize humane treatment of bison, while allowing natural processes to occur

Abstract From: ScienceDirect (Pinyon-juniper (PJ) plant communities cover a large area across North America and provide critical habitat for wildlife, biodiversity and ecosystem functions, and rich cultural resources. These communities occur across a variety of environmental gradients, disturbance regimes, structural conditions and species compositions, including three species of juniper and two species of pinyon. PJ communities have experienced substantial changes in recent decades and identifying appropriate management strategies for these diverse communities is a growing challenge. Here, we surveyed the literature and compiled 441 studies to characterize patterns in research on PJ communities through time, across geographic space and climatic conditions, and among focal species. We evaluate the state of knowledge for three focal topics: 1) historical stand dynamics and responses to disturbance, 2) land management actions and their effects, and 3) potential future responses to changing climate. We identified large and potentially important gaps in our understanding of pinyon-juniper communities both geographically and topically. The effect of drought on Pinus edulis, the pinyon pine species in eastern PJ communities was frequently addressed, while few studies focused on drought effects on Pinus monophylla, which occurs in western PJ communities. The largest proportion of studies that examined land management actions only measured their effects for one year. Grazing was a common land-use across the geographic range of PJ communities yet was rarely studied. We found only 39 studies that had information on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and most were concentrated on Pinus edulis. These results provide a synthetic perspective on PJ communities that can help natural resource managers identify relevant knowledge needed for decision-making and researchers design new studies to fill important knowledge gaps.)

Abstract: (From: Wiley Online Library) Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield‐weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, i.e., alfalfa, wheat, soybeans and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33%‐64% over 2031‐’55 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select south‐eastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Abstract: (From: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/59158)  Most regions of the United States are projected to experience a higher frequency of severe droughts and longer dry periods as a result of a warming climate. Even if current drought regimes remain unchanged, higher temperatures will interact with drought to exacerbate moisture limitation and water stress. Observations of regional-scale drought impacts and expectations of more frequent and severe droughts prompted a recent state-of-science synthesis (Vose et al. 2016). The current volume builds on that synthesis and provides region-specific management options for increasing resilience to drought for Alaska and Pacific Northwest, California, Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, Interior West, Great Plains, Northeast and Midwest, and Southeast.

From Summary: "The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is an expansive region that covers parts of five Midwestern states and three Canadian provinces. The region contains millions of wetlands that produce between 50–80% of the continent’s waterfowl population each year. Previous modeling efforts indicated that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central PPR to the southeast portion of the region where over half of wetlands have been drained. The implications of adopting these projections would require a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR to sustain migratory waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these projections using a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology in combination with the most up-to-date climate model projections to estimate how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat. We also presented our findings in changes to wet May ponds, which is a metric that is used by managers at the US Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations to establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios we found a projected change in wet May pond numbers from -23% to +.02% when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). We also found no evidence that the distribution of wet May ponds will shift in the future. These results suggest that management and conservation strategies for wetlands in the PPR that focus on areas with the high densities of intact wetland basins support large numbers of breeding duck pairs and will likely be the most successful in maintaining habitats critical to continental waterfowl populations."

Introduction (From Parks Stewardship Forum) Managers and scientists widely acknowledge climate change as one of the greatest threats to protected areas in the US and worldwide (Gross et al. 2016). The US National Park Service (NPS) began addressing climate change as early as the 1990s, and in 2010 NPS Director Jonathan Jarvis stated that “climate change is fundamentally the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced” (NPS 2010). Today, parks throughout the NPS system experience impacts of human-caused climate change (e.g., Monahan and Fisichelli 2014; Gonzalez 2018) that threaten iconic park resources. Climate-related impacts include: melting glaciers (e.g., Glacier National Park, Kenai Fjords National Park; Burgess et al. 2013); thermokarst formation effects on archaeological sites (Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve; Gagli-oti et al. 2016); loss of Joshua trees (e.g., Joshua Tree National Park; Sweet et al. 2019); and sea-level rise threatening historic lighthouses (e.g., Cape Hatteras National Seashore; Schupp et al. 2015), historic arti-facts (Anderson et al. 2017), and seaside forts (e.g., Dry Tortugas National Park; Schupp et al. 2015). Droughts, heat waves, floods, smoke, and fires associated with increasing temperatures and altered hydrological re-gimes now routinely affect park resources and visitors, and these impacts are in no way unique to US parks—protected area managers worldwide are challenged to rapidly adapt their management to address ongoing and projected climate change.

Public Summary: The NC CASC has established collaborations across DOI agencies, other federal partners, and tribal communities in the north central United States. These collaborations were driven by stakeholder needs to help managers and user respond to and prepare for the impact of climate change to the resources that they manage. Our main goal here was to enhance the collaborative engagement process to facilitate the development of research that informs climate change adaptation planning. We did this by establishing, in collaboration with tribal representatives, guidelines for tribal engagement and supported a number of tribal entities interested in vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. We also supported regional drought synthesis work with multiple drought researchers, where we identified the types and scales of drought decision-making on public and tribal lands and the obstacles that hindered drought responses. This was useful to identify needs for more regional, collaborative, and anticipatory drought management, as well as understanding local complexities of drought management with broader generalizations about how drought decisions are made in these contexts. We also led a collaborative social-ecological vulnerability assessment with a Colorado BLM field office to inform their assessment and planning efforts. This led to the development of a process and lessons learned for collaborating with BLM and other public land management agencies to produce locally-informed and relevant climate science, which we argue can provide a useful guide for natural resource managers and researchers looking to engage in collaborative projects with these entities on climate-related management issues. The evaluation of the impact and the approaches used by the NC CASC research team to meet stakeholders need and to transmit information from our research efforts concluded that efforts with early engagement provided useable information of diverse and up-to-date science and technology products. Management groups and decision makers developed greater familiarity with approaches codeveloped with research groups. Shortcomings included short duration of project cycles; lack of capacity to deal multiple issues or obje