This project facilitated the engagement of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center’s (NC CASC) Climate Foundational Science Area (FSA) to identify and address the physical climate science challenges that are important for ecologists and natural resource managers in the NC CASC region, as well as meet their needs for climate information to assess impacts to their desired system and develop strategies for effective climate adaptation. A drought index called the Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) was developed to provide a near real-time assessment of soil moisture conditions across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on satellite observations. This projects also supported development of climate scenarios for different stakeholder-driven projects. New utilities were added to another drought index, the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), that our team has previously developed. The project team also put together a book chapter that examinesthe relevance of the concept of evaporative demand and extremes in evaporative demand during the 21st century for drought assessment and monitoring.

The 2019 Tribal Climate Camp, hosted by the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes, took place June 16-21, 2019 at the Flathead Lake Biological Station in Polson, Montana. The Tribal Climate Camp was designed to support teams of tribal leaders, climate change coordinators, planners and program managers to build skills, gather information and develop tribal policy needed to address climate change impacts. This week-long program helped build individual and team capacity to lead and manage for climate change and adaptation across departments within a tribe, and between tribes and partner agencies and organizations. Participants included tribal climate change staff, policy leaders, Tribal Council, natural resource and environmental managers and staff, administrators, department staff from health, public works, education, housing, and other relevant positions interested in engaging in climate change planning. The 2019 Tribal Camp was organized through a collaboration of Tribal and non-tribal partners including the Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians (ATNI), Institute for Tribal Government (]TG), United South and Eastern Tribes (USET), Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (NW CASC), North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC), and Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA).

The sagebrush ecosystem is home to diverse wildlife, including big-game and Greater sage-grouse. Historic and contemporary land-uses, large wildfires, exotic plant invasion, and woodland expansion all represent threats to this multiple-use landscape. Efforts of federal and state agencies and private landowners across the landscape are focused on restoration and maintenance of conditions that support wildlife, livestock, energy development, and many other uses. However, this semi-arid landscape presents challenges for management due to highly variable patterns in growing conditions that lead to differences in plant composition, fuel accumulation, and vegetation recovery. Much of this variability is created by soil and climate conditions. Because of their fundamental effects on plant growth, soil and climate patterns can be used to predict plant growth and regeneration. This information can then help managers understand the long-term persistence of ecosystems, resilience after wildfires and habitat treatments, and the potential for invasive weeds such as cheatgrass to spread.   This project focuses on better understanding the resistance and resilience of the sagebrush landscape to habitat change. The resistance of an ecosystem refers to how well it can maintain its processes when subjected to stress, such as a drought or wildfire, while the resilience of an ecosystem refers to how well it can recover from a stressor or adapt to changing conditions. To do this, researchers will characterize future variability in the soil environment and the sensitivity of growing conditions to potential future changes in temperature and precipitation. Instead of broadly classified climate regions, researchers will model a continuous surface of grid cells using the soil and climate conditions unique to each location. This enables the development of estimates of soil temperature and moisture across a large landscape that take into account both local and landscape-scale conditions. Researchers will also incorporate scenarios of potential future changes in temperature and precipitation, to assess the implications of these changes for habitat conditions, restoration outcomes, and fuel profiles. A better understanding of the patterns of plant production, resistance of the sagebrush ecosystem to invasion by non-native plants, and resilience of the ecosystem following wildfires can inform habitat management activities, such as restoration and reclamation.