Recent observed increases in wildfire activity across the contiguous United States (U.S.) and the increasingly apparent effects of climate change on fire regimes have created novel challenges for fire and ecosystem managers requiring more robust information on changes in future fire risk, especially for the largest fire events, over the next several decades. Today, the majority of wildfire ignitions are caused by human activities—so capturing anthropogenic aspects of changing fire activity beyond those associated with climate change is critically important. In this work, we use a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape, as well as projections of future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the largest fire, and overall area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. over the next four decades. By 2020-2060, we project an average increase in the number of fires (+56%) and burned area (+59%) across the U.S. compared to the historical period (1984-2019). For the largest fire events, we find nearly ubiquitous increases across all ecoregions (contiguous U.S. average +63%). Overall, our results suggest that climate change in the coming decades will drive more frequent occurrences of fires in regions where wildfire was rare (i.e., much of the eastern U.S.), and unprecedented increases in the size of the largest fires in regions where fires were common (i.e., in the western United States). 

Bison restoration has profound implications for ecological, economic and cultural domains, especially restoration into their former historic ranges. Climate change and climate variability, however, threaten sustainable restoration progress. The historic range of bison centered on the prairies of the Great Plains but spanned from Alaska to Mexico and from the Pacific coast to Florida and Pennsylvania, land which is now primarily privately held. Today, 63% of the 184,000 privately owned bison are located in the northern Great Plains, with 12,000 additional bison in the public sector, and 20,000 additional bison in each of the non-profit NGO and Tribal sectors. This multi-sectoral production-conservation system is referred to as the bison management system (BMS) and all sectors are intricately and economically linked through the production market and the cross-transferal of surplus animals. Bison are native ecological keystone species in native prairies and help to restore ecosystems. Their innate wallowing behavior produces shallow bare-soil depressions which create habitat for many other prairie-inhabiting species. Because bison create these wallows by excavating, urinating, and rolling, they also open the seed bank and concentrate nutrient inputs, and in turn increase plant biodiversity in the immediately adjacent landscape. Economically, the bison market has grown over the past 20 years, with bison market returns 1.5–3.3 times that of cattle. Finally, bison repopulation on Tribal lands increases food sovereignty, enhances economic stability, and revitalizes cultural connections to Tribal lands. The newly established Center of Excellence for Bison Studies at South Dakota State University aims to advance research, education, and outreach that address issues associated with each the ecological, economic, and cultural domains throughout the BMS, and is especially focused on restoration challenges associated with climate change and climate variability in conservation and production settings.