Welcome to Caitlin Littlefield!

Caitlin Littlefield (she/her) is a Lead Scientist at Conservation Science Partners. She is a broadly trained landscape ecologist who works at the intersection of forest ecology, conservation biology, and climate change adaptation.

Upcoming NC CASC webinar

Join our next webinar, Sustainable Management of Bison in a Changing World, featuring Dr. Jeff Martin of South Dakota State University. November 10, 2022 at 11 AM MDT.

Rapid ecological change and transformation across the Middle and Southern Rockies during a previous climate warming

How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. 

When

How did rapid ecological change and transformation in the Middle and Southern Rockies unfold during a previous, dramatic climate warming? Answering this question could help resource managers better prepare for such phenomena in the future. We leveraged the Neotoma Paleoecology Database to develop the record of landscape-scale rapid ecological change and transformation of vegetation over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies ecoregions. We modeled the climate drivers of rapid vegetation change and transformation at the landscape scale with TRacE21ka paleoclimate output in Boosted Regression Trees, and we modeled the role of landscape characteristics at the site-level with a Bayesian approach. We identified 60 unique transformations across all 29 sites that took 21 different forms. We found that, at the landscape scale, a 2 ℃ rise in temperature initiated rapid ecological change, and a 5 ℃ rise led to ecological transformation. We also found that landscape characteristics played only a minor role in climate-driven vegetation change, with somewhat faster change on southwest-facing slopes in the Southern Rockies. In addition, transition out of any one particular vegetation type generally resulted in a diverse array of ecological trajectories and outcomes across sites, suggesting that managers would benefit from considering multiple potential ecological futures in climate adaptation planning. This study shows that rapid warming, to the degree expected within the next few decades in the Southern and Middle Rockies, can trigger landscape-scale ecological changes, regardless of the landscape context.

Cross-Park RAD Project

How institutional context and emotions shape manager decisions to resist, accept, or direct change in transforming ecosystems: a cross- case study in four national parks

October 2022 Tribal Climate Newsletter is Available Online

Check out new jobs, events and funding opportunities. 

Interannual variation, especially weather, is an often-cited reason for restoration “failures”; yet its importance is difficult to experimentally isolate across broad spatiotemporal extents, due to correlations between weather and site characteristics. We examined post-fire treatments within sagebrush-steppe ecosystems to ask: (1) Is weather following seeding efforts a primary reason why restoration outcomes depart from predictions? and (2) Does the management-relevance of weather differ across space and with time since treatment? Our analysis quantified range-wide patterns of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) recovery, by integrating long-term records of restoration and annual vegetation cover estimates from satellite imagery following thousands of post-fire seeding treatments from 1984 to 2005. Across the Great Basin, sagebrush growth increased in wetter, cooler springs; however, the importance of spring weather varied with sites' long-term climates, suggesting differing ecophysiological limitations across sagebrush's range. Incorporation of spring weather, including from the “planting year,” improved predictions of sagebrush recovery, but these advances were small compared to contributions of time-invariant site characteristics. Given extreme weather conditions threatening this ecosystem, explicit consideration of weather could improve the allocation of management resources, such as by identifying areas requiring repeated treatments; but improved forecasts of shifting mean conditions with climate change may more significantly aid the prediction of sagebrush recovery.