To characterize eruption activity of the iconic Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park over past centuries, we obtained 41 new radiocarbon dates of mineralized wood preserved in the mound of silica that precipitated from erupted waters. Trees do not grow on active geyser mounds, implying that trees grew on the Old Faithful Geyser mound during a protracted period of eruption quiescence. Rooted stumps and root crowns located on higher parts of the mound are evidence that at the time of tree growth, the geyser mound closely resembled its current appearance. The range of calibrated radiocarbon dates (1233–1362 CE) is coincident with a series of severe multidecadal regional droughts toward the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, prior to the onset of the Little Ice Age. Climate models project increasingly severe droughts by mid‐21st century, suggesting that geyser eruptions could become less frequent or completely cease.

In recent decades, Rocky Mountain accumulated snowpack levels have experienced rapid declines, yet long-term records of snowpack prior to the installation of snowpack observation stations in the early and mid 20th century are limited. To date, a small number of tree-ring based reconstructions of April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the northern Rocky Mountains have extended modern records of snowpack variability to ~1200 C.E. Carbonate isotope lake sediment records, provide an opportunity to further extend tree-ring based reconstructions through the Holocene, providing a millennial-scale temporal record that allows for an evaluation of multi-scale drivers of snowpack variability, from internal climate dynamics to orbital-scale forcings. Here we present a ~2200 year preliminary reconstruction of northern Rockies snowpack based on d18O measurements of sediment carbonates collected from Foy Lake, Montana. We explore the statistical calibration of lake sediment d18O to an annually resolved snowpack reconstruction from tree rings, and develop an approach to assess and quantify potential sources of error in this reconstruction approach. The sediment-based snowpack reconstruction shows strong low-frequency variability in snowpack over the last two millennia with few snow droughts approaching the magnitude of recent snowpack declines. Given the growing availability of high-resolution, carbonate-rich lake sediment records, such reconstructions could help improve our understanding of how snowpack conditions varied under previous climatic events (mid-Holocene climate optimum ca. 9-6 ka), providing critical insights for anticipating future snowpack conditions.    

Join us for the next ESA Webinar

Join us for the next Ecological Society of America (ESA) webinar, "Integrating Western Science Into Indigenous Knowledge Processes" on August 20th at 12:00pm EST.

GEO Releases its First Indigenous Alliance 2020 Report

The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) released its first Indigenous Alliance 2020 Report following the 2020 Indigenous Summit, held on December 5th-7th, which promoted and discussed Indigenous-led innovation in earth observations.

Read the Latest Tribal Climate Newsletter

Read the July 2021 edition of the Tribal Climate Newsletter.

When

Presented by: Balaji Rajagopalan, Professor & Chair, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder Registration link: Register in advance for this meeting: https://cuboulder.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcvce6rrTorGdPCvw03x6P5UbHcT6NFUvgf After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Abstract: The southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important habitat in the northern Great Plains with millions of wetlands used by waterfowl, pheasants, deer, and many unique species that cannot be found elsewhere in the regional landscape. The region is highly sensitive to variations in climate, and it is projected to face climate changes in the future. Summer precipitation in the SEPPR is integral by helping to sustain the ecosystem after spring snowmelt. Thus, understanding, modeling, and projecting the summer hydroclimatology and ecology is crucial for resource managers of the SEPPR in managing the ecosystem efficiently. Expanding on available summer climate and climate variability information and providing unique tools that provide predictions will assist in their work. Motivated by this broader need, this research provides four key contributions. (1) We provide analysis and understanding of the space-time variability of summer hydroclimatology and potential mechanisms. We establish teleconnections and potential mechanisms driving the SEPPR summer precipitation variability through multivariate analysis of large-scale climate variables and regional rainfall. (2) Using the Lagrangian parcel-tracking model HYSPLIT, moisture sources and pathways of summer rainfall were identified. (3) We provide SEPPR resource managers with a predictive tool by employing an underutilized statistical forecasting technique – multivariate Canonical Correlation Analysis – to develop multisite forecasting models for spring and summer SEPPR pond counts. These models predict spring (May) and summer (July) pond counts for each region of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service’s pond and waterfowl surveys. (4) Finally, we provide SEPPR resource managers with a novel, predictive tool capable of simulating multiple vegetation types native to the SEPPR. This integrated climate-ecological modeling framework (ICEMF) couples a stochastic weather generator that can be conditioned on climate forecasts along with SEPPR climate, soil, and vegetation information in an ecological model, DayCent, to simulate ensembles of vegetation attributes in the SEPPR. The combination of new insights into the space-time hydroclimate variability, moisture sources and pathways of summer moisture, a multi-site forecasting model for ponds that supports SEPPR ecology, and the ICEMF makes a significant contribution to the broader community. These can be applied to model other ecological systems in the world, enabled to study impacts of climate change, and help with efficient and sustainable management. About the speaker: Professor Balaji Rajagopalan is the Chair of the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (CEAE) and a Fellow of Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), CU Boulder. He pursues research in diverse interdisciplinary areas spanning – hydro-climatology; water resources management, Indian summer monsoon, paleo-climate and stochastic hydrology. In addition, large scale statistical analysis and modeling for applications to water and wastewater quality, construction safety, building energy efficiency and others. For his research contributing to improved operations, management and planning of water resources in the semi-arid river basins of Western USA, especially the Colorado River System, he was a co-recipient of the Partners In Conservation Award from the Department of Interior in 2009. He was elected Fellow, American Geophysical Union, in 2019.

NC CASC Webinar Series: Understanding and projection of space-time variability of summer hydroclimate and ecology in the United States

The southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important habitat in the northern Great Plains with millions of wetlands used by waterfowl, pheasants, deer, and many unique species that cannot be found elsewhere in the regional landscape. The region is highly sensitive to variations in climate, and it is projected to face climate changes in the future.

Imtiaz Rangwala's Work Featured in Climate Toolbox Case Study

NC CASC Climate Science Lead, Imtiaz Rangwala, and his work for the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) on species status assessment was included in Climate Toolbox’s Case Studies on their website. The case study shows how Imtiaz uses the Climate Toolbox to gather data in order to help FWS assess the potential impact of future climate on different species.
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